A Realistic View of 2023: Part II

[notin]

Arroyo, and Kike were already options there, and the Red Sox weren’t going to spend anymore money just like at SS when Story went down.

 

Both were options at either position and both had more cons than pros.

 

The only middle infielder they acquired was Mondesi in a trade that so far hasn’t produced anything for either side but injury time…

[Old Red]

Both were options at either position and both had more cons than pros.

 

The only middle infielder they acquired was Mondesi in a trade that so far hasn’t produced anything for either side but injury time…

 

Is Mondesi the Ghostly name I keep hearing, but hasn’t been seen?

[moonslav59]

I, for one, enjoy seeing more teams and playing more games against them.

 

Yes, the excitement level is higher when playing division foes, especially the Yankees, so the new schedule does minimize that, but it is "more" fair. Not totally fair but a move in the right direction, again, IMO.

 

The most excitement a team can have, and what we all judge our team by year after year is making the playoffs. Being penalized for being in the toughest division or helped by being in a weaker one is not fair. The new schedule is fairer but not perfect.

 

It will never be perfectly fair. No major USA sport has that. IMO, the old schedule was overly unfair and warped, although more exciting.

[Dipre]

But the entire point is with wild card teams, schedules do matter. I mean, don’t you think the Cardinals get this boost every year from playing Pittsburgh, Cincinnati and Chicago 57 times?

 

From 2019 to 2021, the Cardinals made three postseason appears including two wild cards despite playing under .500 against everyone who wasn’t the Pirates, Reds or Cubs. Now this year, the team is asked to play a real schedule and they’re simply not any good. The MLB radio talking heads ask every day “what’s wrong with the Cardinals? Is it rule changes? Do they miss Molina that much?” No one ever says “maybe they were always bad but just had an easy schedule”.

 

But it might be the case. And if the Sox are going to compete with inferior AL West and AL Central teams for postseason spots, there’s no reason to give them an advantage. The postseason should have the best teams, not the teams that do the best among some arbitrary grouping loosely based on geography…

 

The problem with the Cardinals isn't the schedule, it's their inability to pitch.

[notin]

The problem with the Cardinals isn't the schedule, it's their inability to pitch.

 

 

Or … maybe it’s their inability to pitch to teams that aren’t s*****? It’s largely the same staff that got them to the postseason last year…

[moonslav59]

On Story at 2B or SS. I think we signed him to play 2B with the idea that if Bogey bolted, we could have a capable SS in the system. They guy was still a plus defender at SS, despite a compromised arm due to an injury that should be healed, soon.

 

It's hard to know, if we ever truly wanted Bogey back. My opinion is well known, but just an opinion.

 

As it looks, right now, we have way more 2Bmen than SSs, and Kike, although looking better at SS than earlier, is still better at CF (and 2B) than SS. Chang is a decent defensive SS, but Story is clearly a better overall SS, or at least projects to be.

 

There is a chance Story's arm will be better than it was in COL, near the end of his time there. It might take time to get there. He might make some bad throws out of the gate, but he should be our best SS and best 2Bman, when healthy. I think Cora will play him at SS, at least to start. Maybe Kike platoons with Valdez at 2B- maybe Arroyo does. Maybe Kike platoons with Duran in CF- maybe Duvall does. Maybe the platoons go away and some sort of rotating days off everywhere but 3B, RF and Story (SS/2B) gets established.

 

I'm excited thinking about Story and Duvall's returns.

[Dipre]

Or … maybe it’s their inability to pitch to teams that aren’t s*****? It’s largely the same staff that got them to the postseason last year…

 

They can't even pitch to the teams that are s*****. They have a 4.93 SP ERA, and that's taking into consideration they've somewhat improved in May.

[moonslav59]

They can't even pitch to the teams that are s*****. They have a 4.93 SP ERA, and that's taking into consideration they've somewhat improved in May.

 

They may not have to. They are 5 GB the division leaders MIL, who currently ranks 28th in Pitching fWAR.

[Nick]

On Story at 2B or SS. I think we signed him to play 2B with the idea that if Bogey bolted, we could have a capable SS in the system. They guy was still a plus defender at SS, despite a compromised arm due to an injury that should be healed, soon.

 

It's hard to know, if we ever truly wanted Bogey back. My opinion is well known, but just an opinion.

 

As it looks, right now, we have way more 2Bmen than SSs, and Kike, although looking better at SS than earlier, is still better at CF (and 2B) than SS. Chang is a decent defensive SS, but Story is clearly a better overall SS, or at least projects to be.

 

There is a chance Story's arm will be better than it was in COL, near the end of his time there. It might take time to get there. He might make some bad throws out of the gate, but he should be our best SS and best 2Bman, when healthy. I think Cora will play him at SS, at least to start. Maybe Kike platoons with Valdez at 2B- maybe Arroyo does. Maybe Kike platoons with Duran in CF- maybe Duvall does. Maybe the platoons go away and some sort of rotating days off everywhere but 3B, RF and Story (SS/2B) gets established.

 

I'm excited thinking about Story and Duvall's returns.

 

I read somewhere Cora has stated Story will be the ss.

[moonslav59]

We are entering an interesting part of our schedule: a healthy mix of good and bad opponents.

 

We are 15-11 at home and 13-14 on the roda.

 

13 of our next 19 games are at home:

 

Home

3 CIN

4 TBR

3 COL

3 NYY

 

Away

3 CLE

3 NYY

 

6 v NYY

4 v TBR

9 v CIN, CLE & COL

 

Where we stand after these 19 games might be telling.

 

After these 19, we play 16 of the next 25 on the road:

4 MIN, 3 CWS, 3 TOR, 3 CHC, 3- OAK (a very short west coast trip)

9 Home: 3 MIA, 3 TEX, 3 OAK

Despite the 16 road games, this should not be a killer part of our schedule.

 

The next group of games have some tough opponents, but we play 15 of 21 at home: 3 NYM, 2 ATL, 3 TOR, 4 KCR, 3 OAK

Away: 3 SGF, 3 SEA could be challenging.

[moonslav59]

I read somewhere Cora has stated Story will be the ss.

 

I've heard that, too.

 

How he does in rehab could possibly change that call, IMO.

[Old Red]

On Story at 2B or SS. I think we signed him to play 2B with the idea that if Bogey bolted, we could have a capable SS in the system. They guy was still a plus defender at SS, despite a compromised arm due to an injury that should be healed, soon.

 

It's hard to know, if we ever truly wanted Bogey back. My opinion is well known, but just an opinion.

 

As it looks, right now, we have way more 2Bmen than SSs, and Kike, although looking better at SS than earlier, is still better at CF (and 2B) than SS. Chang is a decent defensive SS, but Story is clearly a better overall SS, or at least projects to be.

 

There is a chance Story's arm will be better than it was in COL, near the end of his time there. It might take time to get there. He might make some bad throws out of the gate, but he should be our best SS and best 2Bman, when healthy. I think Cora will play him at SS, at least to start. Maybe Kike platoons with Valdez at 2B- maybe Arroyo does. Maybe Kike platoons with Duran in CF- maybe Duvall does. Maybe the platoons go away and some sort of rotating days off everywhere but 3B, RF and Story (SS/2B) gets established.

 

I'm excited thinking about Story and Duvall's returns.

Duran who when first called up was exciting, and playing way over his head, but he has gone back to his old self at least with the bat. He’s 14 for his last 23, and I don’t mean hits, but K’s. The only hits he had was against that batting practice pitcher Arizona threw out there the other night. If Duvall comes back healthy, and hits not where he left off, but enough I don’t see much of a chance of Duran being in any kind of a platoon with anybody, and sent back down. They’ve got 5 OF now, and 6 if you count Kike, and they certainly don’t need 1 more.

[notin]

They can't even pitch to the teams that are s*****. They have a 4.93 SP ERA, and that's taking into consideration they've somewhat improved in May.

 

Yeah and the point is they were never very good…

[notin]

Duran who when first called up was exciting, and playing way over his head, but he has gone back to his old self at least with the bat. He’s 14 for his last 23, and I don’t mean hits, but K’s. The only hits he had was against that batting practice pitcher Arizona threw out there the other night. If Duvall comes back healthy, and hits not where he left off, but enough I don’t see much of a chance of Duran being in any kind of a platoon with anybody, and sent back down. They’ve got 5 OF now, and 6 if you count Kike, and they certainly don’t need 1 more.

 

 

Duvall will create a logjam and Duran has options. But the notion that his last 23 ABs mean more than the first 118 just makes zero sense.

 

As I said, Duran has options. But adding Duvall will require DFAing (or trading, which is less likely) someone from the 40 man roster. And Duvall does make Refsnyder obsolete…

[Old Red]

Duvall will create a logjam and Duran has options. But the notion that his last 23 ABs mean more than the first 118 just makes zero sense.

 

As I said, Duran has options. But adding Duvall will require DFAing (or trading, which is less likely) someone from the 40 man roster. And Duvall does make Refsnyder obsolete…

 

I’m not just counting his last 23 just, because that was mentioned. I just don’t think he is as good as he showed when he first come up. Duvall doesn’t make the Ref Man obsolete. The only way that would happen is if Casas doesn’t sit against LHP, and Yoshida doesn’t DH. Duvall doesn’t change any of that.

[Fan_since_Boggs]

Not sure when Story is expected to return this year, but I see Valdez and Story as the starting double play combination next year.

 

And Abreu could be starting in RF next year. That Vazquez trade might prove to be a brilliant move.

[notin]

I’m not just counting his last 23 just, because that was mentioned. I just don’t think he is as good as he showed when he first come up. Duvall doesn’t make the Ref Man obsolete. The only way that would happen is if Casas doesn’t sit against LHP, and Yoshida doesn’t DH. Duvall doesn’t change any of that.

 

No but at some point letting Casas learn to hit LHP does make some sense.

 

They will have to DFA someone to add Duvall. Refsnyder is certainly a candidate. Duran very likely isn’t. It could also be Ryan Sherriff or Justin Garza…

[notin]

Not sure when Story is expected to return this year, but I see Valdez and Story as the starting double play combination next year.

 

And Abreu could be starting in RF next year. That Vazquez trade might prove to be a brilliant move.

 

Not a huge fan of Valdez’ glove. Hamilton has earned a shot at 2b as well…

[Maxbialystock]

Duran who when first called up was exciting, and playing way over his head, but he has gone back to his old self at least with the bat. He’s 14 for his last 23, and I don’t mean hits, but K’s. The only hits he had was against that batting practice pitcher Arizona threw out there the other night. If Duvall comes back healthy, and hits not where he left off, but enough I don’t see much of a chance of Duran being in any kind of a platoon with anybody, and sent back down. They’ve got 5 OF now, and 6 if you count Kike, and they certainly don’t need 1 more.

 

I disagree that Duran is a lost cause, but overall your commentary is valid. Duvall will be back soon, so the Sox will have 6 outfielders--Yoshida, Duvall, Duran, Refsnyder, Verdugo, and Tapia--plus Kike, who will probably stay at SS.

 

You hit, you play--simple as that. These are the current outfield OPS's--

 

Duvall 1.544

Yoshida .853

Verdugo .825

Duran .816

Refsnyder .792

Tapia .659

 

So it's a little early to give Duran the boot, plus Duvall isn't back yet.

[Old Red]

No but at some point letting Casas learn to hit LHP does make some sense.

 

They will have to DFA someone to add Duvall. Refsnyder is certainly a candidate. Duran very likely isn’t. It could also be Ryan Sherriff or Justin Garza…

 

I don’t see the Ref Man being DFA. The next two weeks are big for Duran though.

[Old Red]

I disagree that Duran is a lost cause, but overall your commentary is valid. Duvall will be back soon, so the Sox will have 6 outfielders--Yoshida, Duvall, Duran, Refsnyder, Verdugo, and Tapia--plus Kike, who will probably stay at SS.

 

You hit, you play--simple as that. These are the current outfield OPS's--

 

Duvall 1.544

Yoshida .853

Verdugo .825

Duran .816

Refsnyder .792

Tapia .659

 

So it's a little early to give Duran the boot, plus Duvall isn't back yet.

 

I’m not saying Duran is a lost cause, but only I just think he was playing over his head when he came back up. I agree on the you hit, you play, and no Duvall isn’t back yet, and who knows if he will come close to picking up where he left off with the bat.

[notin]

I disagree that Duran is a lost cause, but overall your commentary is valid. Duvall will be back soon, so the Sox will have 6 outfielders--Yoshida, Duvall, Duran, Refsnyder, Verdugo, and Tapia--plus Kike, who will probably stay at SS.

 

You hit, you play--simple as that. These are the current outfield OPS's--

 

Duvall 1.544

Yoshida .853

Verdugo .825

Duran .816

Refsnyder .792

Tapia .659

 

So it's a little early to give Duran the boot, plus Duvall isn't back yet.

 

But you left out the most important factor - options.

 

Duran can go to Worcester. Refsnyder and Tapia cannot, at least not without clearing waivers. Of course, demoting Duran to Worcester won’t get Duvall back on the 40 man roster.

 

Someone has to go. Most likely, Ryan Sherriff, as he has cleared waivers before so a DFA likely won’t hurt the Sox pitching depth. Other candidates include Justin Garza, Rich Bleier and (a longshot, admittedly in) Refsnyder. Not likely they DFA Ref, but it’s certainly the cleanest move…

 

I suspect they demote Duran and DFA Sherriff.

[moonslav59]

No but at some point letting Casas learn to hit LHP does make some sense.

 

They will have to DFA someone to add Duvall. Refsnyder is certainly a candidate. Duran very likely isn’t. It could also be Ryan Sherriff or Justin Garza…

 

Ref is not a DFA candidate. I could not disagree more.

[moonslav59]

But you left out the most important factor - options.

 

Duran can go to Worcester. Refsnyder and Tapia cannot, at least not without clearing waivers. Of course, demoting Duran to Worcester won’t get Duvall back on the 40 man roster.

 

Someone has to go. Most likely, Ryan Sherriff, as he has cleared waivers before so a DFA likely won’t hurt the Sox pitching depth. Other candidates include Justin Garza, Rich Bleier and (a longshot, admittedly in) Refsnyder. Not likely they DFA Ref, but it’s certainly the cleanest move…

 

I suspect they demote Duran and DFA Sherriff.

 

I wish they would trade or DFA Bleier instead of Garza or Sheriff. To me, both offer a little more than Bleier, but I guess Bleier could regain his form from years ago.

 

According to SP's, here are the notable players with and without options (notice how I do not list Refsnyer, the guy with the second best OPSand best wRC+ since the start of 2022, and to note, he has started more games vs RHPs than LHPs over the past 2 years combined. 43-34)

 

No Options

Bleier

Reyes

Chang

Tapia

Arroyo

 

1+ Options

Ort

Sheriff

Garza

Bernardino

Duran

 

When Duvall comes back, maybe we DFA Ort and demote a pitcher (Garza) to put off the Tapia/Duran call. We could also trade Bleier, Pivetta or Kluber, of DFA one, if they keep sucking. Chances are they keep Tapia on the team and demote Duran, unless he gets hot, again.

 

When Story returns, I think they choose to trade or DFA Chang or Reyes. They could possibly trade Arroyo and keep both.

[Nick]

I wish they would trade or DFA Bleier instead of Garza or Sheriff. To me, both offer a little more than Bleier, but I guess Bleier could regain his form from years ago.

 

According to SP's, here are the notable players with and without options (notice how I do not list Refsnyer, the guy with the second best OPSand best wRC+ since the start of 2022, and to note, he has started more games vs RHPs than LHPs over the past 2 years combined. 43-34)

 

No Options

Bleier

Reyes

Chang

Tapia

Arroyo

 

1+ Options

Ort

Sheriff

Garza

Bernardino

Duran

 

When Duvall comes back, maybe we DFA Ort and demote a pitcher (Garza) to put off the Tapia/Duran call. We could also trade Bleier, Pivetta or Kluber, of DFA one, if they keep sucking. Chances are they keep Tapia on the team and demote Duran, unless he gets hot, again.

 

When Story returns, I think they choose to trade or DFA Chang or Reyes. They could possibly trade Arroyo and keep both.

 

I just don't see Reyes' value being higher than Chang. No way.

[moonslav59]

To those who think last year's performance is a good indicator of the next season's performance, the 2022>2023 Red Sox must be driving you nutty!

 

Especially the pitchers:

 

The Good

5.89> 2.23 Winckowski

5.47> 3.30 Crawford

4.71> 4.08 Bello

 

The Bad

4.56>5.77 Pivetta

 

The Ugly

3.45> 5.14 Whitlock

3.15> 5.30 Houck

4.34> 6.26 Kluber

3.55> 5.85 Bleier

 

The guy many felt was a fluke has been the closest to consistency:

2.22> 1.12 Schreiber

 

The two guys some felt was over the hill have been just as consistent:

1.46>1.32 Martin

3.38>3.45 Jansen (41 saves in 54 games> 11 in 14)

 

 

[moonslav59]

I just don't see Reyes' value being higher than Chang. No way.

 

Agreed. Chang is the better defender at SS, something we lack in.

 

My list is ordered with the player I'd like to see go on the top, second most next, and so on...

 

(By "go," I might mean demoted not DFA'd)

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Ref is not a DFA candidate. I could not disagree more.

 

I agree with your disagree. The Red Sox love Refsynder as the perfect bench guy, who accepts and thrives in his role.

[moonslav59]

2022 to 2023 Batting

 

The Good

.645> .816 Duran

.585> .772 Wong

N/A> .710 Valdez

.732> .825 Dugo

.788> .769 Turner (was at .666 May 29, 2022 w LAD)

N/A> .853 Yoshida

.677> 1.030 Duvall (ATL>BOS)

 

The Bad

.629> .668 Kike

.736> .660 Arroyo

.879> .783 Devers

.877> .642 McGuire (Sox numbers but .677 CWS+BOS)

.766> .689 Casas

 

The Ugly

.652> .490 Dalbec

 

[notin]

Ref is not a DFA candidate. I could not disagree more.

 

Most likely it will be Sherriff, although maybe Garza or (hopefully) Bleier.