A Realistic View of 2023: Part II

[Bellhorn04]

GM of the Year, There's no denying it. Sox are so fun to watch now.

 

I've been down on Bloom, too, but the 2023 team is doing better than I expected. Is 28-24 really so bad?

[Nick]

The positive spin on our rotation:

 

#1 Sale

4-1 2.23 last 5 starts (.539 OPS Against)

 

#2 Bello

4-1 2.57 last 5 starts (.735 OPS Against)

 

#3 Paxton

2 good starts of his 3, this year (2.45 ERA after first 2 starts)

 

#4 Houck

9 starts: 4 good/4 bad and good last time out (4.99 ERA in 2023/3.84 FIP/ .688 OPSA)

 

#5 Whitlock

Nice last start. A friend once told me, "A pitcher is only as good as his last start."

 

(Or was that Max? )

 

 

Good news is that all five have the "stuff" to be successful.

 

Who knows how it will all turn out. But we have a succession plan in place with our younger pitchers.

 

Is it too far fetched to think Kutter will take Paxton"s spot next year?

Edited May 28, 2023 by Nick

[Nick]

Baseball indeed is a business. One unusual aspect is you can't be 100% sure of the personnel you are acquiring.

 

We have been obsessed with Jose Abreu from the time we supposedly barely missed out on the slugger who went to the White Sox.

 

On the heels of that we bid and got a player the following year for big money. He was so bad that we had to hide his enormous contract in the minors. He did not make our 40 man roster. We did not wanted to be further penalized by the luxury tax.

 

It's very disconcerting to think we were set to sign Abreu for almost $60M over 3 years.

 

Fortunately for Bloom Abreu at the last minute picked Houston instead of the Sox. He's having a horrendous year.

 

Bloom lucked out.

Edited May 28, 2023 by Nick

[moonslav59]

Maybe me.

 

Max, you are the king of "what have you done (or not done) for me recently."

 

There is nothing wrong with that. It's the way you see things. You mention what players did in their last game, a lot.

[notin]

Good news is that all five have the "stuff" to be successful.

 

Who knows how it will all turn out. But we have a succession plan in place with our younger pitchers.

 

Is it too far fetched to think Kutter will take Paxton"s spot next year?

 

Certainly. Although in like the idea of keeping Crawford in the bullpen as relievers can impact more games, and, let’s face it, the game is down my passing out starting pitching.

 

Of course since I’ve always advocated for having Crawford in the pen along with Houck, Whitlock, Winckowski, and Schreiber, at some point, the Sox do need someone to actually start games. Bello can’t start them all…

[moonslav59]

Good news is that all five have the "stuff" to be successful.

 

Who knows how it will all turn out. But we have a succession plan in place with our younger pitchers.

 

Is it too far fetched to think Kutter will take Paxton"s spot next year?

 

Agreed.

 

We may see Kutter get a chance, this year, as an injury or two is almost a certainty. i'm absolutely loving what I'm seeing from Crawink. These two really lowered our expectations, last year, despite having decent "stuff," but now they are shining brighter than just about any other pitcher on the team, except maybe Sale, but he started out slowly. These two have been buttah, all year.

 

We may see Wink get a shot at starting, again, too. (I hope not this year.)

[moonslav59]

Certainly. Although in like the idea of keeping Crawford in the bullpen as relievers can impact more games, and, let’s face it, the game is down my passing out starting pitching.

 

Of course since I’ve always advocated for having Crawford in the pen along with Houck, Whitlock, Winckowski, and Schreiber, at some point, the Sox do need someone to actually start games. Bello can’t start them all…

 

That's the conundrum. Ultimately, you normally have to find your best 5 guys to start, even if it means hurting your pen.

 

Bloom chose to add 2-3 solid pen arms (Jansen, Martin and maybe Joely) and just 1 starter, if you don't count Paxton as 2 and Sale as 3. That pretty much forced Whitlock, Houck, Crawford and maybe eventually Wink to have to start. Had Bloom added 2-3 SP'ers and just Jansen, we'd have seen most of the tweener guys in the pen, assuming good health and production from the rotation.

 

I think Whitlock wanted a chance to start. That is not reason enough, alone, but he does have the stuff to be a plus starter, so as much as I love him in the pen, I think starting him made sense.

 

Houck really should have a wider range of pitches to be a starter, and his record the third time through a line-up strongly suggested he not start. Even the difference between his first time through vs the second was great enough to strongly indicate he belongs in the pen, but the fact is, even with that flaw, he's a way better starter than Kluber & Pivetta. He also seems like the better choice over Crawink.

 

If we can somehow manage to keep Crawink in the pen, all year, and the pen stays healthy, our pen will be the strongest and deepest it's been in a long time.

 

That helps make the starters better, as we can yank them earlier than in the past and earlier than many other teams can afford to do with their struggling starters in any given game.

[moonslav59]

Baseball indeed is a business. One unusual aspect is you can't be 100% sure of the personnel you are acquiring.

 

We have been obsessed with Jose Abreau from the time we supposedly barely missed out on the slugger to the White Sox.

 

On the heels of that we bid and got a player the following year. He was so bad that we had to hide his enormous contract in the minors. We did not want to be further penalized by the luxury tax.

 

It's very disconcerting to think we were set to sign him for almost $60M over 3 years.

 

Fortunately for Bloom, Abreu at the last instance picked Houston instead of the Sox.

 

Bloom lucked out.

 

True. One could weigh which will be better:

 

Abreu & Eflin

vs

Turner & Kluber

[moonslav59]

Some Team Pitching Rankings

 

fWAR

23. WSH 3.2

24. CWS 2.9

25. DET 2.8

26. BOS 2.7

27. KCR 2.4

28. MIL 2.1

29. NYM 0.5

30. OAK -3.6

 

10th BB/9 at 3.1

11th K/BB at 2.8

T15th SIERA at 4.16

18th xFIP at 4.33

18th K/9 8.5

23rd ERA- at 105 (103 would be 18th place)

T24th ERA 4.69

 

Looking better than in mid/end of April.

 

13th BAbip .290

[Nick]

Some Team Pitching Rankings

 

fWAR

23. WSH 3.2

24. CWS 2.9

25. DET 2.8

26. BOS 2.7

27. KCR 2.4

28. MIL 2.1

29. NYM 0.5

30. OAK -3.6

 

10th BB/9 at 3.1

11th K/BB at 2.8

T15th SIERA at 4.16

18th xFIP at 4.33

18th K/9 8.5

23rd ERA- at 105 (103 would be 18th place)

T24th ERA 4.69

 

Looking better than in mid/end of April.

 

13th BAbip .290

 

Looks to me like our new starting 5 can't do much worse.

[moonslav59]

Some Team Pitching Rankings

 

fWAR

23. WSH 3.2

24. CWS 2.9

25. DET 2.8

26. BOS 2.7

27. KCR 2.4

28. MIL 2.1

29. NYM 0.5

30. OAK -3.6

 

10th BB/9 at 3.1

11th K/BB at 2.8

T15th SIERA at 4.16

18th xFIP at 4.33

18th K/9 8.5

23rd ERA- at 105 (103 would be 18th place)

T24th ERA 4.69

 

Looking better than in mid/end of April.

 

13th BAbip .290

 

Since April 30th:

 

T 22nd in fWAR at 1.7 (2 teams at 1.8)

9th in ERA- at 93

11th xFIP at 4.18

11th K/BB at 2.8

12th SIERA at 4.14

[moonslav59]

Looks to me like our new starting 5 can't do much worse.

 

That's part of the equation, for sure, but my hope is the rotation can be top 15 from APR 30 to the end of the season.

 

The whole staff has been top 15 in some areas since 4/30, already.

 

With reduce or no innings from Kluber, Pivetta, Brasier and Bleier, it might not be so hard to show much improvement.

[notin]

True. One could weigh which will be better:

 

Abreu & Eflin

vs

Turner & Kluber

 

 

While I understand option 1, I still take #2 since the bad contract is only one year…

[moonslav59]

2022 Blue

2023 Red

 

OPS by Season (70+ PAs)

.881 Refsnyder

.879 Devers

.877 McGuire

.842 Yoshida

.842 Duran

.833 Bogay

.826 Dugo

.803 Devers

.790 JD

.785 Refsnyder

.766 Casas

.765 Wong

.759 Vaz

.752 Turner

.737 Story

.736 Arroyo

.732 Dugo

.729 Valdez

.697 Cordero

.694 Casas

.672 Pham

.668 Kike

.667 Tapia

.660 Arroyo

.652 Dalbec 353 PAs

.650 McGuire

.645 Duran 223 PAs

.629 Kike 402 PAs

.578 JBJ 290 PAs

.574 Plawecki 175 PAs

 

Those bottom 5-6 killed us in 2022.

 

 

 

[moonslav59]

No split seasons: 2022-2023 combined: (70+ PAs)

 

Blue: no longer on roster

 

.860 Devers (132 wRC+)

.849 Refsnyder (139 wRC+)

.842 Yoshida (130)

.833 Bogey (134)

.790 JD (119)

.778 McGuire (115)

.759 Vaz (110)

.756 Dugo (108)

.752 Turner (108)

.737 Story (100)

.729 Valdez

.720 Arroyo

.720 Casas

.720 Duran

.710 Wong

 

Under .700

.697 Cordero

.672 Pham

.667 Tapia

.647 Dalbec (in AAA)

.641 Kike

.578 JBJ

.574 Plawecki

.549 Chang

[Bellhorn04]

True. One could weigh which will be better:

 

Abreu & Eflin

vs

Turner & Kluber

 

Option 3 Party like it's 2018

 

JDM & Eovaldi

 

(Damn, my hindsight is good from the armchair.)

[Hugh2]

While I understand option 1, I still take #2 since the bad contract is only one year…

 

This. Saying we should not have signed Kluber is 100% a hindsight statement, but without a doubt he’s been a disappointment.

 

I wasn’t against the Kluber signing, I liked it, but I was disappointed it was the only move they made. I thought the rotation needed a lot of work and the Sox needed an ACE at the top.

 

They’ve been lucky that all of Sale/Bello/Paxton look good right now, and Whitlock/Houck might be added to that group too, especially with more consistency.

[Nick]

Best thing about Whitlock outing last night was he can improve on it.

 

He must have gone full count at least six times. I thought he got some bad calls based on the square I see watching TV.

 

Also encouraging to see many swings and misses.

 

Glad he is back and he obviously came back with a better change up.

[Nick]

So I got to see Whitlock pitch (on TV) last night and today it's Houck. Tuesday it's back to Bello.

 

We are unlikely to win the world series this year. But I'm going to enjoy our youngters play.

 

My expectation isn't as high as some of yours.

[Bellhorn04]

Rays won.

Yanks up 8-3.

Orioles & Jays both winning.

 

The AL Beast is really keeping the pressure on this year.

[Bellhorn04]

So I got to see Whitlock pitch (on TV) last night and today it's Houck. Tuesday it's back to Bello.

 

We are unlikely to win the world series this year. But I'm going to enjoy our youngters play.

 

My expectation isn't as high as some of yours.

 

I think for the majority 2023 is about making the playoffs or not.

[moonslav59]

So I got to see Whitlock pitch (on TV) last night and today it's Houck. Tuesday it's back to Bello.

 

We are unlikely to win the world series this year. But I'm going to enjoy our youngters play.

 

My expectation isn't as high as some of yours.

 

I had and still have my doubts about this year's chances at success, but I never understood those who felt there was nothing to get excited about.

 

Bello

Whitlock

Houck

Casas

The Sale & Paxton sagas

Masa vs Bogey

Turner v JD

Wong/McGuire v Vaz/Plawecki

Duvall v JBJ & Co.

Brand new pen v the ugly 2022 pen

 

There is more, including surprises from Duran, Valdez, Crawink and others.

 

 

[moonslav59]

Rays won.

Yanks up 8-3.

Orioles & Jays both winning.

 

The AL Beast is really keeping the pressure on this year.

 

I liked it better when the other 4 were playing each other, but we hit a losing streak at that time.

[moonslav59]

Rays won.

Yanks up 8-3.

Orioles & Jays both winning.

 

The AL Beast is really keeping the pressure on this year.

 

The Rays won 11-10, as the Dodgers bum of a leadoff hitter went 0-5.

 

The next 4 guys went 8-15 with 2 BBs, so you have to think...

[Nick]

Not only are getting back Duvall and Story, we should have money to pick up some rentals in July without giving away top prospects.

 

Our 6 through 8 in the bullpen may need an upgrade.

Edited May 28, 2023 by Nick

[moonslav59]

Not only are getting back Duvall and Story, we should have money to pick up some rentals in July without giving away top prospects.

 

Our 6 through 8 in the bullpen may need an upgrade.

 

Agreed, but we need to also hope for no new and longer term injuries.

 

We might also add a SP'er and move a rotation arm to the pen.

[Nick]

Agreed, but we need to also hope for no new and longer term injuries.

 

We might also add a SP'er and move a rotation arm to the pen.

 

I am all for upgrading our roster at every turn.

 

Although the wheels turn slowly at times, it's encouraging that we have moved from Brasier and Ort along with going away fron Kluber and Pivetta as starters.

 

At least Bloom is trying and not just sit on his ass.

[notin]

Agreed, but we need to also hope for no new and longer term injuries.

 

We might also add a SP'er and move a rotation arm to the pen.

 

BTV accepts Ceddane Rafaela to Miami for Jesus Luzardo.

 

This deal makes a lot of sense for both sides. Miami, even after dealing Lopez, has excellent starting pitcher depth (Alcantara, Garrett, Rogers, Cabrera, and Perez) . Luzardo is certainly good, but also arbitration-eligible after this season. Their outfield situation is horrific. They do have some struggling young players who might break through, but even then, Rafaela is versatile enough to take over SS.

 

Will it happen? Oh hell no. Should it? It does make a good amount sense for both teams…

[Nick]

BTV accepts Ceddane Rafaela to Miami for Jesus Luzardo.

 

This deal makes a lot of sense for both sides. Miami, even after dealing Lopez, has excellent starting pitcher depth (Alcantara, Garrett, Rogers, Cabrera, and Perez) . Luzardo is certainly good, but also arbitration-eligible after this season. Their outfield situation is horrific. They do have some struggling young players who might break through, but even then, Rafaela is versatile enough to take over SS.

 

Will it happen? Oh hell no. Should it? It does make a good amount sense for both teams…

 

Good deals should work for both sides. Maybe this does.

 

We do need to replace Paxton at minimum.

[moonslav59]

MIA might want more than Rafaela and will likely get better offers.

 

Would you give Rafaela and Mata?

 

Rafaela and Walter?