A Realistic View of 2023: Part II

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

If Chaim is building a team to compete, how can he justify this to Henry as being good enough unless this is what they are all expecting?

 

Compete for what... place these in their most likely order:

 

1. Tickets, concessions, parking, merchandise sales

2. TV viewers

3. #1 overall draft pick lottery

4. Fourth place

5. Wild Card

6. 2 wins away from going to the World Series

7. rings

[mvp 78]

Compete for what... place these in their most likely order:

 

1. Tickets, concessions, parking, merchandise sales

2. TV viewers

3. #1 overall draft pick lottery

4. Fourth place

5. Wild Card

6. 2 wins away from going to the World Series

7. rings

 

Most likely to happen, the importance of, or what their actual expectations are? They aren't going to be 1st in tickets or tv viewers, just because of the stadium size and market. It's close to an impossibility, but they can be towards the top. I'll try to order based on their expectation for the season I guess?

 

4th Place > Wild Card > Sales Top 3 > TV Top 3 > 2 wins from WS > Ring > #1 Draft Pick

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Most likely to happen, the importance of, or what their actual expectations are? They aren't going to be 1st in tickets or tv viewers, just because of the stadium size and market. It's close to an impossibility, but they can be towards the top. I'll try to order based on their expectation for the season I guess?

 

4th Place > Wild Card > Sales Top 3 > TV Top 3 > 2 wins from WS > Ring > #1 Draft Pick

 

Yours is realistic, but we know they have to stay in the running for a wild card to keep sales and viewership up.

 

But can we agree there's no way Bloom or ownership sit on their hands again at the deadline this summer? If the Sox suck, look for a fire sale -- at least with any attractive bullpen pieces...

[harmony]

How the 2023 Red Sox can defy their postseason odds:

 

How these MLB teams can defy low 2023 playoff odds

WWW.MLB.COM

---

As Spring Training gets under way, some teams have more reasons to be optimistic than others about their postseason chances in the year ahead. But with every team starting from square one, there’s room for some surprises. The odds are against the nine clubs below making the playoffs in 2023,

[moonslav59]

How the 2023 Red Sox can defy their postseason odds:

 

How these MLB teams can defy low 2023 playoff odds

WWW.MLB.COM

---

As Spring Training gets under way, some teams have more reasons to be optimistic than others about their postseason chances in the year ahead. But with every team starting from square one, there’s room for some surprises. The odds are against the nine clubs below making the playoffs in 2023,

 

I get that this just quick sound bites on a few teams, but no mention of Yoshida as a key to bucking the odds, seemed strange, to me.

[mvp 78]

Yours is realistic, but we know they have to stay in the running for a wild card to keep sales and viewership up.

 

But can we agree there's no way Bloom or ownership sit on their hands again at the deadline this summer? If the Sox suck, look for a fire sale -- at least with any attractive bullpen pieces...

 

I think they'll end up in 4th place, but be close enough to the WC that viewers are interested in mid-September. I don't think they will be a boring 4th place team, just a weird one full of guys that we'll look back on and say "remember when HE was a Red Sox that one year? Weird!"

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Which Sox?

 

Fangraphs gives Boston a 30.7% chance to make the playoffs, which is better than Chicago's 27.8%.

 

Are the White Sox, with more under-30 regulars, really a bigger underdog to win the supposedly weaker AL Central?

 

Potential break-outs or bounce-backs in or on the verge of their primes: CWS -- Anderson, Jimenez, Robert, Moncada, Vaughn, Sheets, plus pitchers Cease, Kopech, Giolito vs.BRS -- Devers, Yoshida, Casas, Verdugo, Arroyo? plus pitchers Bello, Whitlock, Houck.

 

Chicago's closer is ill, but both Cease and Giolito have received recent Cy Young votes. At least Pivetta led the league in starts last year. Predictions must really be banking on comebacks from Boston's old rehabbing pitchers...

[mvp 78]

Luis Robert: Injury held him out of most of the past two years

Eloy Jimenez: Injury held him out of most of the past two years

Yoan Moncada: Is blaming last years struggles on an injury

Grandal: Won't play over 100 games at his age going forward

Giolito: Needs to get his walk rate back down, but is likely to rebound

 

With Robert and Jimenez, it will be about staying healthy for a full season. They are great players WHEN HEALTHY.

 

I think the ChiSox caught fire in 2021 and everything came together for them. I don't see it happening again this year. Last year was a mess and they should be a bit better though. Maybe 84ish wins like the Red Sox.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

 

I think the ChiSox caught fire in 2021 and everything came together for them.

 

That sounds like the BoSox in '21...

 

... except now they're in a division with only one team over .500 in '22...

[mvp 78]

That sounds like the BoSox in '21...

 

... except now they're in a division with only one team over .500 in '22...

 

The 2021 Sox had a lot of same players from a team that won 108 games and the WS in 2018.

[moonslav59]

The 2021 Sox had a lot of same players from a team that won 108 games and the WS in 2018.

 

It's stunning to look at the 40 man roster by seniority on the 40 and see Verdugo 5th. He wasn't even on the 2019 team!

 

The guys ahead of him are:

 

1. Sale (2016>) Hardly plays

 

2. Devers (Homegrown)

 

3. Brasier (added summer 2020) may not be here long.

 

4. Dalbec (Homegrown) may not be here long.

 

[moonslav59]

The 2021 Sox had a lot of same players from a team that won 108 games and the WS in 2018.

 

How many players are left from the 2021 ML roster?

 

Rank in 2021 PAs

1. Devers

3. Verdugo

4. Kike

8. Dalbec (likely in AAA)

10. Arroyo

15. Duran (likely in AAA)

21. Wong (back-up catcher- had 14 PAs in 2021)

 

IP Ranks:

3. Pivetta

6. Whitlock

7. Houck

12. Sale

21. Brasier (12 IP in 2021)

28. Schreiber (3 IP in 2021)

31. Crawford (2 IP in 2021)

 

[moonslav59]

How the 2023 Red Sox can defy their postseason odds:

 

How these MLB teams can defy low 2023 playoff odds

WWW.MLB.COM

---

As Spring Training gets under way, some teams have more reasons to be optimistic than others about their postseason chances in the year ahead. But with every team starting from square one, there’s room for some surprises. The odds are against the nine clubs below making the playoffs in 2023,

 

Fangraphs has us with the 4th best offense in the AL, so it looks like it will ultimately come down to pitching.

 

The pen should be better- hopefully close to as good as other AL teams, so it all seems to narrow down to the rotation and rotation depth. As of now, if all are healthy, we're not even sure which 5 of the top 6 SP'ers will begin the season. We may even start with a 6 man rotation or some sort of piggy back thing.

 

I'd put it this way, but I can't see Paxton moving to the pen:

 

1. Sale

2. Kluber

3. Whitlock

4. Bello

5. Pivetta

6. Paxton

 

Depth:

1. Houck/Mata

2. Crawford

3. Walter

4. Winckowski

5. Murphy

 

There is quite a bit of promise, here, but so much is up in the air.

[mvp 78]

It's stunning to look at the 40 man roster by seniority on the 40 and see Verdugo 5th. He wasn't even on the 2019 team!

 

The guys ahead of him are:

 

1. Sale (2016>) Hardly plays

 

2. Devers (Homegrown)

 

3. Brasier (added summer 2020) may not be here long.

 

4. Dalbec (Homegrown) may not be here long.

 

 

Well, every offseason there is more and more turnover. A good chunk of the core left this offseason.

[mvp 78]

Fangraphs has us with the 4th best offense in the AL, so it looks like it will ultimately come down to pitching.

 

The pen should be better- hopefully close to as good as other AL teams, so it all seems to narrow down to the rotation and rotation depth. As of now, if all are healthy, we're not even sure which 5 of the top 6 SP'ers will begin the season. We may even start with a 6 man rotation or some sort of piggy back thing.

 

I'd put it this way, but I can't see Paxton moving to the pen:

 

1. Sale

2. Kluber

3. Whitlock

4. Bello

5. Pivetta

6. Paxton

 

Depth:

1. Houck/Mata

2. Crawford

3. Walter

4. Winckowski

5. Murphy

 

There is quite a bit of promise, here, but so much is up in the air.

 

They are going to piggyback two of the starters somehow. Whitlock and Paxton? Most likely, one of the guys has an injury by the time Paxton or Whitlock is ready to take on fulltime innings.

[Bellhorn04]

They are going to piggyback two of the starters somehow. Whitlock and Paxton? Most likely, one of the guys has an injury by the time Paxton or Whitlock is ready to take on fulltime innings.

 

Yep, there are 3 things in life you can count on-death, taxes, and injuries to pitchers.

[moonslav59]

Well, every offseason there is more and more turnover. A good chunk of the core left this offseason.

 

I'm not sure I've seen such a massive 40 and 26 man roster make-over in just 1-2 years, as now.

 

If you figure we "over-achieved" in 2021, maybe it was a good idea to pretty much start from scratch.

 

Had we just done that in 2020, we might be better positioned, going forward.

[moonslav59]

They are going to piggyback two of the starters somehow. Whitlock and Paxton? Most likely, one of the guys has an injury by the time Paxton or Whitlock is ready to take on fulltime innings.

 

An injury before opening day is probably an 80%+ probability, so yes, it will likely work itself out.

 

IMO, Bello is probably on a lower IP plan than Whitlock, so maybe a Bello-Paxton piggy-back might be the choice. Who knows what Cora has in mind?

[Bellhorn04]

I'm not sure I've seen such a massive 40 and 26 man roster make-over in just 1-2 years, as now.

 

I think Bloom critics would argue that too much of the make-over is at the bottom of the roster, while the top still looks sketchy as heck.

[moonslav59]

I think Bloom critics would argue that too much of the make-over is at the bottom of the roster, while the top still looks sketchy as heck.

 

I don't necessarily disagree. I do think many don't view Yoshida as a top of the roster guy, so that was a big chunk of the winter spending viewed as a bottom addition. They could be right: they could be wrong.

 

I'm glad we seriously addressed the pen. I wish we had added a SS and kept Kike in CF and addressed the rotation more assertively (via trade,) but we to me, we have a deep starter list with a lot of upside potential. We may just need 3-4 out of the 8-10 to do very well or 4-5 to do a decent job. I don't think that's being optimistic to think it could/should happen.

 

Honestly, I don't blame fans for not being excited about the 2023 Sox, but they really weren't in 2013, either, so maybe this will be a magical season.

[mvp 78]

I'm not sure I've seen such a massive 40 and 26 man roster make-over in just 1-2 years, as now.

 

If you figure we "over-achieved" in 2021, maybe it was a good idea to pretty much start from scratch.

 

Had we just done that in 2020, we might be better positioned, going forward.

 

I think they properly achieved in 2021. I think the core was decent. The only player that really overachieved was Nasty Nate. Now imagine if Bloom had actually added a good SP that offseason!

[mvp 78]

An injury before opening day is probably an 80%+ probability, so yes, it will likely work itself out.

 

IMO, Bello is probably on a lower IP plan than Whitlock, so maybe a Bello-Paxton piggy-back might be the choice. Who knows what Cora has in mind?

 

Before Opening Day? That sounds on the high side. Before Memorial Day? That's probably 50-60%.

[Nick]

I don't necessarily disagree. I do think many don't view Yoshida as a top of the roster guy, so that was a big chunk of the winter spending viewed as a bottom addition. They could be right: they could be wrong.

 

I'm glad we seriously addressed the pen. I wish we had added a SS and kept Kike in CF and addressed the rotation more assertively (via trade,) but we to me, we have a deep starter list with a lot of upside potential. We may just need 3-4 out of the 8-10 to do very well or 4-5 to do a decent job. I don't think that's being optimistic to think it could/should happen.

 

Honestly, I don't blame fans for not being excited about the 2023 Sox, but they really weren't in 2013, either, so maybe this will be a magical season.

 

If a fan is not excited about watching Casas, Bello, Whitlock, Houck and new additions, they need to go be a Yankee fan.

 

So f***ing tired of all the negativity. We have won 4 World Series in last 20 years. Go suck on th

at.

[Bellhorn04]

If a fan is not excited about watching Casas, Bello, Whitlock, Houck and new additions, they need to go be a Yankee fan.

 

So f***ing tired of all the negativity. We have won 4 World Series in last 20 years. Go suck on th

at.

 

I hear ya Nick.

[mvp 78]

If a fan is not excited about watching Casas, Bello, Whitlock, Houck and new additions, they need to go be a Yankee fan.

 

So f***ing tired of all the negativity. We have won 4 World Series in last 20 years. Go suck on th

at.

 

I'm not all that interested in seeing Houck TBH. He hasn't shown that much to me and I'm not sure what role they are going to throw him in.

 

Casas, Bello and Whitlock should be fun to watch. I'm very interested in seeing what Yoshida can bring this year. Hopeful? The pen should be much better this year and Jansen is a good dude.

 

Having Story out is pretty deflating, but that's on Bloom to figure out.

[sk7326]

1. Fun trivia (don't go to ESPN site) - who was the last Red Sox 1B to put up >= 3 wins above replacement in a season?

 

2. Casas, Bello, Whitlock will be fun. Yoshida is fun just as a mystery. The REAL fun would be is Rafaela did enough to get a call up before September.

[sk7326]

They are going to piggyback two of the starters somehow. Whitlock and Paxton? Most likely, one of the guys has an injury by the time Paxton or Whitlock is ready to take on fulltime innings.

 

I'm not sure any of the pitchers will top 120 IP this season - well, besides Pivetta

[Old Red]

If a fan is not excited about watching Casas, Bello, Whitlock, Houck and new additions, they need to go be a Yankee fan.

 

So f***ing tired of all the negativity. We have won 4 World Series in last 20 years. Go suck on th

at.

 

If Casas, and Bello break out this year that will be exciting, but Whitlock, and Houck not so much. Losing breeds, and brings negativity. If you want it to stop like I keep saying get better, and win more games, and get into the postseason. If they don’t the negativity will not only continue, but get even worse.

[Bellhorn04]

If they don’t the negativity will not only continue, but get even worse.

 

No way!

[mvp 78]

I'm not sure any of the pitchers will top 120 IP this season - well, besides Pivetta

 

I disagree:

Kluber

Pivetta

Bello

Sale

 

120 isn't a really high number. Even frequently injured Michael Wacha got there last year.