2023 Prospects

[mvp 78]

Lets just hope Rafaela wins the CF job by opening day 2024, and we won't have to worry bout corner OF'ers in CF, anymore.

 

I'm hoping by the '23 trade deadline.

[moonslav59]

I'm hoping by the '23 trade deadline.

 

Me, too, but if Duvall does okay, we can wait.

[mvp 78]

Me, too, but if Duvall does okay, we can wait.

 

Duvall, Yoshida, Turner AND Verdugo would all need to do really well for the Sox to wait until 2024. It seems like there will be an injury or underperformance somewhere.

[moonslav59]

SP's ...

 

20. Niko Kavadas

Hit: Potential fringe-average

Power: Potential plus

Run: Poor 20 runner

Field: Below average 1st first base only

Arm: Below-average

Notes: Consensus 2021 First Team All-American. 2021 First Team All-ACC and Dick Howser Award Semifinalist. Raw power and exit velocities were among the best in the 2021 draft class. Fell to 11th round of 2021 draft after turning down below-slot offers from teams on day two. Signed with Red Sox for $125,000 above slot despite being a college senior. Participated in the 2021 Fall Performance Program. Promoted twice during the 2022 season after putting up outstanding offensive numbers at both A-ball affiliates.

Summary: Potential up-and-down bench bat. Ceiling of a platoon designated hitter. Value is solely tied up in his bat. Shows tremendous ability to impact the baseball along with an advanced feel for the strike zone and finding his pitch, but also has swing-and-miss in his game. Bat path allows him to drive the ball with loft, but it remains unclear how it will play against more advanced pitching. Profile suggested a player likely to post strong performance numbers in the low minors, which came to fruition, but true test will come in Double-A and above. Not a strong defender, unclear how glove will play at first base. Will have to hit to overcome defense and speed deficiencies.

[moonslav59]

19. Elmer Rodriguez-Cruz

Mechanics: Throws from a three-quarters arm slot. High leg left. Coils before coming forward. Arm swing behind; hides the ball. Uses his height to get good extension. Has arm speed. Some effort in delivery.

Fastball: 90-93. Tops at 95. Potential above-average.

Curve: 75-78 w long 11-5 break. Potential plus.

Changeup: 80-83 w some drop. Potential fringe.

Slider: Work in progress. Potential below-average.

Notes: Young for his class, drafted as a 17-year-old. Committed to Oregon. Participated in the Fall Performance Program in 2021. Earned a promotion to Salem following the end of the FCL season.

Summary: Early ingredients for a potential back-end starter, but there is a wide gap between what he is and what he could be. Already shows a four-pitch mix, with his fastball and curveball showing the most potential. Needs to improve his changeup and slider and physically mature to take the next step in his development.

 

 

[moonslav59]

18. Nathan Hickey

 

Hit: Potential fringe-average

Power: Potential average

Run: Well below average

Field: Potential below-average at C (May end up at 1B or LF)

Notes: 2021 Newcomer All-SEC Team and 2021 SEC All-Tournament Team. Received a somewhat surprising over-slot bonus upon signing. Missed nearly all of the final month of the 2021 season due to a family issue. Participated in the Fall Performance Program in 2021. Participated in 2022 Winter Warm-Up. Got beat up a bit behind the plate in 2022, taking a couple of IL stints, including one for a concussion, and missing a week-or-so of games in a couple of other instances. Was set to participate in the 2022 Fall Performance Program that was cancelled due to Hurricane Ian.

Summary: Potential up-and-down reserve bat. Ceiling of a second-division regular. Likely has to stick at catcher to reach his ceiling, but has enough bat to potentially make the majors even if his defense does not come that much farther along. Advanced profile at the plate; likely to put up strong performance numbers in the low minors.

 

 

[moonslav59]

17. Enmanuel Valdez

Hit: Potential average v RHP/ Below-average v LHPs

Power: Average raw power, struggles v LHPs

Run: Below average'

Field: Below average no matter where he ends up

Arm: Below-average

Notes: Acquired from Houston with Wilyer Abreu for Christian Vazquez at the 2022 trade deadline. Was in the midst of a career-best season at the plate at the time he was traded. Was added to the 40-man roster in November 2022 to prevent him from reaching minor league free agency. Participated in 2023 Rookie Development Program.

Summary: Potential up-and-down, platoon bat. Ceiling of a bat-first utility player. Makes hard contact and has a decent approach against right-handed pitchers, but struggles against lefties. Has moved around the diamond, but that is driven by him being below-average defensively and trying to find where he will best fit rather than true versatility. Will have to hit to hold value given defensive limitations.

[moonslav59]

Soxprospects.com #16-20...

 

http://news.soxprospects.com/2023/03/2023-countdown-to-spring-training-20-16.html

 

16. Brainer Bonaci

 

Hit: Potential average

Power: Projects below-average

Run: Below-average speed but good instincts

Field: Potential fring-average. Fluid w avg range.

Arm: Plus

Notes: Signed to a mid-range bonus on his 16th birthday in 2018. Has reportedly already drawn trade inquiries early in his career. Participated in the Fall Instructional League in 2019 and 2020, and stood out as a standout prospect for scouts at 2020 Instructs. Participated in the 2021 Fall Performance Program. Participated in 2022 Winter Warm-Up.

Summary: Potential up-and-down utility player. Ceiling of a solid utility player with contact skills and positional versatility. Not physically imposing, but has a blend of instincts and ability that stands out. Has feel for hit and at least an average defensive profile to go along with a plus arm. Will stick on the left side of the infield for now.

 

[moonslav59]

Duvall, Yoshida, Turner AND Verdugo would all need to do really well for the Sox to wait until 2024. It seems like there will be an injury or underperformance somewhere.

 

Good point about needing at least 4 guys to do okay or better to keep the wait on Rafaela.

[notin]

Duvall, Yoshida, Turner AND Verdugo would all need to do really well for the Sox to wait until 2024. It seems like there will be an injury or underperformance somewhere.

 

Things do get more clouded when Story and/or Mondesi comes back and pushes Kike back into the outfield picture…

[notin]

Good point about needing at least 4 guys to do okay or better to keep the wait on Rafaela.

 

I look at Duvall as a stopgap anyway. He’s holding down CF until Kike can return.

 

It’s also possible not all these players are with Boston by season’s end. Verdugo, for example…

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

I look at Duvall as a stopgap anyway. He’s holding down CF until Kike can return.

 

It’s also possible not all these players are with Boston by season’s end. Verdugo, for example…

 

Or healthy...

[Old Red]

Things do get more clouded when Story and/or Mondesi comes back and pushes Kike back into the outfield picture…

 

It’s not a guarantee that Story comes back, and if he does, and goes to SS it might make the IF more crowded, and not the OF.

[moonslav59]

It’s not a guarantee that Story comes back, and if he does, and goes to SS it might make the IF more crowded, and not the OF.

 

It's hard to know what they might do, if and when Story and or Mondesi are ready. It might depend on who is doing well and who might not be or is injured.

 

So many permutations, and we're not even sure Story goes back to SS, when he does come back.

 

2B/SS Story

SS/2B/CF Kike

SS/2B Mondesi

2B Arroyo

CF/LF/DH Duvall

 

If Duvall is doing well, and we want to push Kike to CF...

LF Duvall (RF?)- Verdugo?

DH Yoshida

1B/DH Turner (3B, if Devers needs a rest or gets hurt)

1B/DH Casas

 

If a bunch of these guys are doing well and healthy in July, maybe one gets dealt (Duvall, Kike, Mondesi are all on their final year of team control.)

[notin]

It’s not a guarantee that Story comes back, and if he does, and goes to SS it might make the IF more crowded, and not the OF.

 

And if Story or Mondesi return, Kike is very likely to return to the OF mix. He was only moved to the infield due to injury, and very likely returns to the OF upon recovery.

 

He’s also probably ahead of Rafaela on the CF depth chart…

[moonslav59]

And if Story or Mondesi return, Kike is very likely to return to the OF mix.

 

We might need both to return and do well to see Kike get much OF work.

 

Duvall is likely better than Arroyo, so Kike would stay at SS or move to 2B, in my opinion.

[notin]

We might need both to return and do well to see Kike get much OF work.

 

Duvall is likely better than Arroyo, so Kike would stay at SS or move to 2B, in my opinion.

 

Not sure if Duvall is better than Arroyo. He is more durable, which helps a lot…

[moonslav59]

Not sure if Duvall is better than Arroyo. He is more durable, which helps a lot…

 

I think he will hit better than Arroyo, but it's a clase call.

 

Arrroyo at 2B and Kike in CF is a better defensive alignment than Kike at 2B and Duvall in CF, granted.

[Bellhorn04]

I think he will hit better than Arroyo, but it's a close call.

 

Right, as in put the two names on a dartboard, throw a dart and see which one you hit.

[notin]

Right, as in put the two names on a dartboard, throw a dart and see which one you hit.

 

 

 

I thought Arroyo would be the clear better hitter. Duvall’s game is defense and slugging. He certainly has power, but there is also A LOT of swing and miss in him. His K% is over 30% each of the last two seasons. It’s probably not coming back down.

 

But over the last 3 years, OPS+ has them roughly equal. Arroyo at 102 and Duvall at 100…

Edited March 5, 2023 by notin

[moonslav59]

Disagree.

 

Arroyo is the clear better hitter. Duvall’s game is defense and slugging. He certainly has power, but there is also A LOT of swing and miss in him. His K% is over 30% each of the last two seasons. It’s probably not coming back down…

 

I'm not sure Duvall's defense in CF makes for a plus "game."

 

LF, yes.

[moonslav59]

Right, as in put the two names on a dartboard, throw a dart and see which one you hit.

 

I do think, when healthy, Duvall, Arroyo and Mondesi are all pretty bunched up, in terms of total value they bring when playing.

 

If and when Story returns, and assuming Kike is healthy and playing well, it will be interesting to see which of the 3 gets most of the playing time.

 

As long as Story is out, we may see some sort of rotation, but I doubt they jerk Kike around the field.

 

The splits don't really scream out for a platoon, but they do point to Duvall as being the best overall hitter.

 

Career v R & L.

 

v R

.749 Duvall

.696 Arroyo

.674 Mondesl

 

v L

.771 Duvall

.725 Arroyo

.719 Mondesi

 

Overall:

.755 Duvall .230/.289/.465

.708 Arroyo .255/.307/.400

.687 Mondesi .244/.280/.408

.639 Chang .213/.279/.360

 

2020-2022

.756 Duvall .225/.284/.473

.747 Arroyo .273/.320/.427

.668 Mondesi .233/.275/.392

.653 Chang .219/.278/.375

 

[notin]

I'm not sure Duvall's defense in CF makes for a plus "game."

 

LF, yes.

 

Well I was referring to his career. In CF, I think of him as the weak link on this team. And a big part of the reason getting Story or Mondesi back will push Kike back into CF…

[moonslav59]

Well I was referring to his career. In CF, I think of him as the weak link on this team. And a big part of the reason getting Story or Mondesi back will push Kike back into CF…

 

Until Story comes back, assuming he does in 2023, I'm not sure I want Mondesi at SS, Arroyo at 2B and Kike in CF, everyday.

 

I guess how well Duvall is hitting might make the choice easier. (Also, how well Mondesi and Arroyo look.)

[moonslav59]

SP's Rankings and Rundowns:

 

15. Blaze Jordan:

Hit: potential average

Run: well below average

Field: fringe-average at 3B/ potential above average at 1B

Arm: above average

Notes: Was well-known from a young age thanks to viral YouTube videos showing his power, such as one with nearly 1.5 million views in which he hit an alleged 500-foot home run at Globe Life Park in Arlington, Texas at age 13. As a result, is still fairly well-known nationally and gets a number of endorsement deals. Won the High School Home Run Derby at the 2019 MLB All-Star Game. Recorded the highest exit velocity of any player at the 2019 World Wood Bat Championships (106.9 mph). Attended the same high school as Atlanta Braves third baseman Austin Riley. Was very young for his draft class after reclassifying in May 2019 from the 2021 class to the 2020 class. Committed to Mississippi State. Participated in the 2020 Fall Instructional League. Participated in the 2021 Fall Performance Program. Participated in the 2022 Winter Warm-Up. Was set to participate in the 2022 Fall Performance Program that was cancelled due to Hurricane Ian.

Summary: Potential up-and-down bench bat. Ceiling of a bat-first regular, likely at first base. Really has to hit, as he is maxed out and has a tough potential profile as a right-right first baseman. A favorite of predictive models due to his age compared to his draft class, elite exit velocities, and bat speed. Needs to show he can hit advanced pitching in order to tap into his raw power, which is his best tool. Will have to watch conditioning. Ultimate defensive position is likely first base, but has a better chance to be able to play at least part time at third base now than when he signed.

 

14. Matthew Lugo:

 

Hit: potential fringe average

Run: average

Field: potential average at 3B

Arm: average

Notes: Nephew of former MLB player Carlos Beltran, whose baseball academy he attended. Committed to University of Miami before being drafted. First overall pick in the 2019 draft in the Puerto Rican winter league. Participated in the Fall Instructional League in 2019 and 2020. Did not play in 2020 Puerto Rican winter league due to a wrist injury. Did not participate in the 2021 Puerto Rican winter league despite being announced as part of the Caguas roster. Participated in the 2021 Fall Performance Program. Participated in 2022 Winter Warm-Up. Was set to participate in the 2022 Fall Performance Program that was cancelled due to Hurricane Ian. Received a non-roster invitation to MLB spring training in 2023.

Summary: Potential up-and-down utility player. Ceiling of a reserve infielder. Lacks a true carrying tool, but has several that grade in the 45-50 range. Bat took a step forward in 2022, but still needs to improve his approach, especially breaking balls. Needs to cut his chase rate and improve quality of contact to reach his potential at the plate. Given his defensive profile, will have to hit to reach his potential.

[moonslav59]

13. Chris Murphy

Mechanics: Throws from a three-quarters arm slot, starting on the third base side of the rubber. Takes two small steps before a medium leg kick. Drives towards the plate with a big stride and gets good extension. Left leg kicks up on follow-through. Can tend to fall off towards third base post-delivery. Quick, compact arm action. Slight arm hook with some effort behind. Does not consistently finish delivery and can lose release point at times.

Fastball: 90-93 mph. Tops out at 96 mph. Below-average command and control profile. Potential average

Changeup: Potential above-average

Curveball: Potential average

Slider: Potential below-average

Career Notes: Not drafted out of high school, but was recruited by several top Division-I colleges in California. Played for Brewster in the Cape Cod League in 2018, struggling with control issues. Had a fairly impressive junior season at San Diego despite walking more than 6 batters per 9 innings. Pitching crosschecker Chris Mears strongly advocated for the Red Sox to select Murphy in the 2019 Draft. Cut down on walks dramatically after signing, reportedly due to minor mechanical tweaks. Participated in the Fall Instructional League in 2019 and 2020. Posted extreme splits in 2021, dominating left-handed hitters (.401 OPS, 0 HR) but getting hit very hard by right-handers (.914 OPS, 21 HR), but this did not carry forward into 2022. Participated in the Fall Performance Program in 2021. Participated in 2022 Winter Warm-Up. Added to the 40-man roster in November 2022 to protect him from selection in the Rule 5 Draft. Participated in 2023 Rookie Development Program.

Summary: Potential multi-inning relief arm. Ceiling of a back-end starter. Lacks a standout pitch, but has three averageish pitches and a fourth that can be effective when used on occasion. Needs to improve consistency with secondary pitches and command to allow him to work deeper into games and develop into a consistent starter. Chances of starting are better now than in the past now that he has shown he can consistently get right-handed hitters out, something he really struggled with coming into 2022. Showed inconsistent ability to miss bats in 2022 and will need to show more consistency there if he is to stick as a starter.

 

12. Wikelman Gonzalez:

Mechanics: Throws from a three-quarters arm slot. Has streamlined delivery over the course of the 2022 season. Does not use a wind-up. Loose, quick arm. Rotational delivery. Medium leg kick. Stiff arm action with a stab behind. Inconsistent release point. Does not stay closed consistently and falls off hard to the first base side.

Fastball: 93-96 mph. Tops out at 97 mph. Live arm. Will come out 95-96 mph, then settle in at 93-94 mph, topping out at 95 mph. Potential plus offering with refined command.

Changeup: 86-89 mph. Deceptive arm speed. Flashes late, splitter-like drop where it falls off the table. Potential above-average offering.

Curveball: 77-80 mph. Long, 11-to-5 break. Potential above-average offering.

Slider: Potential average offering.

Career Notes: Opening Day starter in the DSL in 2019. Participated in the Fall Instructional League in 2019 and 2020. Had a breakout 2021 season with a strong showing in the FCL and in Low-A, jumping from the back end of the SoxProspects rankings into the top 15 by season's end. Participated in the Fall Performance Program in 2021. Name was misspelled "Wilkelman" from his signing until April 2022 due to its pronunciation.

Summary: Potential swingman capable of starting or providing length out of the bullpen. Ceiling of a mid-rotation starter. Wide-range of outcomes due to lack of consistency and where he is in the development process. Potential for three above-average-to-better pitches, but a long way to go to get there and must significantly improve command and control to reach his ceiling. Still learning how to pitch, but is not as raw as some comparable arms age-wise in the system. Has simplified his delivery, which had a lot of moving parts, which should make it easier for him to keep his arm in sync with the rest of his body. If command does not improve, that, along with his size and delivery, could push him to a short relief bullpen role.

 

 

 

[moonslav59]

11. Eddison Paulino

Physical Description: Undersized and skinny at present. Solid athlete with good hand-eye coordination. Frame has room to support added strength, but will never be overly physical.

Hit: Swing mechanics work. Contact-oriented swing with a level bat path. Average bat speed at present and good bat control. Covers the plate well and has a decent approach for his age. Does not miss much in zone, but will expand, especially against secondary pitches. Advanced bat control leads him to make a lot of weak contact on pitches that he struggles to drive. Shows substantial platoon splits already. Potential average hit tool against right-handed pitchers and below-average against left-handers.

Power: Average raw power. Has sneaky power for his size and could add more as he matures. Needs to drive the ball in the air more and improve quality of contact. Future power potential is dependent on how he physically develops.

Run: Average speed. Will steal a few bases, but not a major part of his game.

Field: Footwork and hands are average. Looks most comfortable at second base right now, but has also played shortstop and third base. Not a standout defender, but will not hurt you either. Potential average defender at second base or third base. Could play shortstop in a pinch, but unlikely to stick there long-term. Began to play some outfield in 2022 to add versatility as well as to create more playing opportunities in crowded Salem infield.

Arm: Average arm strength.

Career Notes: Signed on his 16th birthday at the open of the 2018 international signing period. Received a mid-sized bonus. Participated in the 2021 Fall Performance Program.

Summary: Potential up-and-down platoon bat. Ceiling of a solid utility player who adds value at the plate and with his position versatility. Hit tool projects best, but all his tools could end up in the 45-55 range. Well-rounded player with solid makeup and work ethic. Has shown the ability to make consistent, hard contact at a young age.

 

10. Luis Perales

Physical Description: Medium, athletic frame. Has a good amount of projection left and should add strength as he matures.

Mechanics: Throws from a high three-quarters arm slot from the middle of the rubber. Steps backwards toward first base before a medium-to-high leg kick prior to delivery. Finishes off-balance towards first base, with a pronounced post-delivery right leg kick up. Quick arm with short arm action. Moderate arm effort. Solid control for his age.

Fastball: 95-98 mph. Tops out at 99 mph. Pitch shows good carry. Command and control need work. Potential plus-to-better offering.

Curveball: 84-86 mph. Advanced for his age. Good feel for spin. Gets over the pitch and can snap it off. Can locate in the zone or out of the zone looking for swinging strikes. Potential plus offering.

Changeup: 87-90. Inconsistent, but will flash bat-missing ability with the ability to pull the string on it with late fading action. Potential above-average offering.

Career Notes: Was not a highly-touted amateur prospect out of Venezuela. Began to show much higher promise after signing, particularly in the Tricky League in the summer of 2019. Emerged quickly as a prospect to follow. Was limited to one game due to injuries in 2021. Organization then heavily monitored his workload in 2022, limiting him to three innings per start. Still broke out and rose quickly into the SoxProspects top 20 by the end of the season. Earned a promotion to Salem following the end of the 2022 FCL season. Was set to participate in the 2022 Fall Performance Program that was cancelled due to Hurricane Ian.

Summary: Potential major league starter. Ceiling of a number two starter. Wide variance arm with a high-ceiling and low-floor. Has shown among the best raw stuff of any arm in the system and was identified by scouts as the top pitching prospect in the Florida Complex League in 2022. Will flash two plus pitches and three at least above-average pitches. All have shown bat-missing ability. Next step in his development is finding consistency with his delivery and showing he can handle a full season workload.

[mvp 78]

I'm just not sold on Murphy. Need to see what he does this season. Maybe he'll surprise me?

[moonslav59]

I'm just not sold on Murphy. Need to see what he does this season. Maybe he'll surprise me?

 

He really dropped off, last year, after a nice start.

 

Maybe he need to be moved to the pen, soon. Maybe he had a minor injury.

[mvp 78]

He really dropped off, last year, after a nice start.

 

Maybe he need to be moved to the pen, soon. Maybe he had a minor injury.

 

I haven't heard about an injury in late 2022. He wasn't missing starts and they didn't put him on any inning limitations. He threw 7 innings on 9/22.