2023 Prospects

[moonslav59]

Some of these ranking services obviously value upside potential more than others.

[moonslav59]

#31 to #40

 

40. Stephen Scott Profiles as a solid organizational player. Ceiling of a bat-first bench bat. Can play first base and corner outfield adequately and is now getting significant run at catcher. Type of player every organization needs. If he can get to even fringe-average defensively, prospects of reaching the major leagues drastically improve.

 

39. Gilberto Jimenez Potential mid-minors depth option. Ceiling of an organizational outfielder. Showed more potential when he was younger, but development has stagnated. At one point, you could dream on him becoming an everyday center fielder who adds value at the plate and in the field, but now does not even look like a future major leaguer. Needs work to refine his defensive game, but has the athletic ability and arm strength you look for in a center fielder.

 

38, Ronaldo Hernandez Potential up-and-down, bat-first catcher who is the third or fourth catcher on the 40-man roster. Ceiling of a regular catcher in a timeshare if he improves his defense and approach, but the likelihood of that happening is low. Given the barrier at catcher right now, could be used there in limited opportunities if his bat warrants it. Type of defensive profile that could really benefit from the automated strike zone. Questions about his approach, hit tool, and defensive profile cloud his future projection. Needs to improve hit profile to project as a major leaguer if defense stays as-is.

 

37. Johnfrank Salazar Intriguing player with some solid characteristics at the plate and in the field. Needs to physically mature in order to be able to handle more advanced pitching, but defensive profile gives him a higher-than-usual floor for someone his age.

 

36. Chase Meidroth Will have to hit, but has shown strong contact skills and advanced approach. Young for the college draft class and combination of age, contact skills and approach grade out really well on models.

 

35. Alex Binelas Impressed as a freshman with Louisville, hitting 14 home runs in 2019. Broken hamate bone caused him to miss time in 2020. Once seen as a potential top-15 pick in the 2021 draft, early-season offensive struggles caused him to slide to the third round. Showed flashes of his offensive potential in first pro year in 2021. Acquired from Milwaukee with Jackie Bradley and David Hamilton for Hunter Renfroe in December 2021 on the eve of the lockout. Participated in 2022 Winter Warm-Up

 

34. Tyler Uberstine Potential organizational depth arm. Fresh arm with limited pitching experience at the collegiate level, but possesses intriguing traits. Fastball has the traits teams look for. Excellent work ethic, ultra-competitive. Gets the most out of what he has.

 

33. Christian Koss Potential emergency up-and-down utility infielder. Ceiling of a utility infielder. Hit tool development will be key to reaching his potential. Has enough defense and power to profile in a bench role, but upside is limited if he cannot make more contact.

 

32. Freili Encarnacion Potential bat-first infielder who may need to move to third base as he continues to grow, but will be given a chance at shortstop to start his career. High-risk, high reward profile. Power will likely be carrying tool, but is not an all-or-nothing slugger either with a solid approach. Reportedly possesses strong makeup, a clubhouse leader with an affable personality. Good baseball acumen.

 

31. Marvin Alcantara Small, athletic frame. Needs to add strength. Has shown solid feel for hit and advanced approach for his age. Solid contact skills, but still in the process of developing power. Scouts identified him as one of the top position players on the 2022 DSL Red Sox. Was set to participate in the 2022 Fall Performance Program that was cancelled due to Hurricane Ian. No summary- "this page will be updated with a complete scouting report after the scouting team has seen the player in person."

[mvp 78]

Before 10 seconds ago, I didn't know who Marvin Alcantara (31) or Luis Guerrero (29) were.

[sk7326]

Here is Law and Longenhagen (the Fangraphs prospects guy) talking about their lists and biggest gaps ... one solid segment of it was on Bleis

 

https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/comparing-top-100-lists-with-eric-longenhagen-and/id1499877854?i=1000601463988

[moonslav59]

Here is Law and Longenhagen (the Fangraphs prospects guy) talking about their lists and biggest gaps ... one solid segment of it was on Bleis

 

https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/comparing-top-100-lists-with-eric-longenhagen-and/id1499877854?i=1000601463988

 

Good listen. They talked a long time about MB.

[Larry Cook]

Rafeala was caught looking for a strikeout on his first at bat. The next at bat, he made loud contact but the shortstop robbed him.

[sk7326]

Rafeala was caught looking for a strikeout on his first at bat. The next at bat, he made loud contact but the shortstop robbed him.

 

The reports on Rafaela is that the swing is fine - he has struck out a ton, but it has been more about knowing what a strike is. I think Law mentioned that Rafaela is such an overwhelmingly promising CF defensively that you hope the team does not rush his hitting development to get that glove on the field in Boston. Of course, Rafaela can solve that problem for them.

[moonslav59]

The reports on Rafaela is that the swing is fine - he has struck out a ton, but it has been more about knowing what a strike is. I think Law mentioned that Rafaela is such an overwhelmingly promising CF defensively that you hope the team does not rush his hitting development to get that glove on the field in Boston. Of course, Rafaela can solve that problem for them.

 

I certainly believe rushing a player can be harmful, but I often think the effects are overblown and actually near negligible, in most cases. Maybe with studs like Bogey, this is true, but less skillful or mature young players, it's not true.

 

As of now, there is no need to rush him, anyway, but if Duvall flounders or we have an OF injury, I'm not sure Refsnyder or Duran will last long as (capable) replacements. I'm not think Duran should be viewed as capable, right now. Refsnyder deserves a look, based on what he did, last year, but I'm not sure about who would be next in line. Tapia and others would need to be added to the 40.

 

You are right, though, Rafaela can and just very well might "solve the problem," by himself.

 

I'm getting super pumped up about so many current Sox players and prospects. I know I often harp on quality over quantity, but I am seeing more and more quality in all of our quantity, I'm beginning to wonder, if I've underestimated all the quality.

 

I know many here think I've been overly optimistic, recently, so I may be just feeling the effects of spring fever, but this team is deep with quality and promise. I like where we are headed.

[sk7326]

I certainly believe rushing a player can be harmful, but I often think the effects are overblown and actually near negligible, in most cases. Maybe with studs like Bogey, this is true, but less skillful or mature young players, it's not true.

 

As of now, there is no need to rush him, anyway, but if Duvall flounders or we have an OF injury, I'm not sure Refsnyder or Duran will last long as (capable) replacements. I'm not think Duran should be viewed as capable, right now. Refsnyder deserves a look, based on what he did, last year, but I'm not sure about who would be next in line. Tapia and others would need to be added to the 40.

 

You are right, though, Rafaela can and just very well might "solve the problem," by himself.

 

I'm getting super pumped up about so many current Sox players and prospects. I know I often harp on quality over quantity, but I am seeing more and more quality in all of our quantity, I'm beginning to wonder, if I've underestimated all the quality.

 

I know many here think I've been overly optimistic, recently, so I may be just feeling the effects of spring fever, but this team is deep with quality and promise. I like where we are headed.

 

I am very optimistic about the position players.

 

Pitching? There is just such a wide range of outcomes with the sorts of pitchers the team has in the org. If one of Mata or Murphy (or insert whatever pitching prospect you want) starts to emerge more as a "mid-rotation starter" sort than a "swing/bullpen" sort, then it can really get fun.

 

Now both Dombrowski and Bloom have been intentional about trying to get more arms into the system - but now some of those higher end outcomes need to bear fruit.

[moonslav59]

I am very optimistic about the position players.

 

Pitching? There is just such a wide range of outcomes with the sorts of pitchers the team has in the org. If one of Mata or Murphy (or insert whatever pitching prospect you want) starts to emerge more as a "mid-rotation starter" sort than a "swing/bullpen" sort, then it can really get fun.

 

Now both Dombrowski and Bloom have been intentional about trying to get more arms into the system - but now some of those higher end outcomes need to bear fruit.

 

I agree that Mayer, Rafaela and Bleis (and Casas) offer much better chances at greatness than Mata, Walter, Murphy and Crawinck, but I really like Bello, who is younger or close to the same age as Walter, Mata and Murphy. Hell, even Whitlock, Houck and Crawinck are about the same age or younger than Walter.

 

I feel pretty good about Bello, Whitlock and Houck, and I still think at least one from Mata (most likely), Walter, Crawford, Winkowski and Murphy will be a solid plus pitcher for us within the next 2-3 years. I'm not so confident about our down-the-road pitchers like Perales, Wikleman, E R-C and Drohan.

 

Team control years:

SP

5 Houck (2 pre-arb + 3 arbs)

4 Whitlock

2-3 Sale

2 Pivetta

1-2 Kluber

1 Paxton

 

RP

3 Schreiber (arbs)

2 Jansen

2 Martin

1-2 Rodriguez

1 Brasier

 

All the rest are pre-arb with 5-6 years of control.

[moonslav59]

30. Tyler McDonough Potential high-end organizational player. Ceiling of an up-and-down utility player. High floor, but does not have much of a ceiling. Lacks a true carrying tool, but has several average-ish tools. Sum-of-all-parts profile. Strong defensive versatility and contact skills will carry him through the system.

 

29. Luis Guerrero Potential middle reliever. Ceiling of a late-inning relief arm. On the raw side and needs to improve his command and consistency, but has some of the best raw stuff of any relief arm in the system. Splitter is a potential separator pitch with the ability to miss bats at the highest level. Fastball has good velocity, but is hittable and he will have to show the ability to command it to succeed.

 

28. Jedixson Paez Potential emergency up-and-down starter. Ceiling of a back-end starter. One of the more interesting pitching prospects in the Red Sox low minors, but has a wide gap between what he currently is and what he could be. Already shows an intriguing three-pitch mix with advanced feel and command for his age. Stuff at present is on the light side, but has already started to tick up. If stuff continues to tick up, projection could change.

 

27. Ryan Fernandez Potential up-and-down reliever. Ceiling of a middle reliever. Stuff increase in 2022 has significantly changed his profile, but projection is a hedge pending his showing similar stuff when he returns from injury. At his best, will show two potential plus pitches with bat-missing ability. Whether he can maintain these gains remains to be seen, but now is a very intriguing potential relief arm.

 

26. David Hamilton Potential organizational utility player. Ceiling of an emergency up-and-down utility type. Could stand to remake his swing in order to prioritize line drives and hitting the ball on the ground more in order to better utilize his speed. Lack of defensive ability limits upside. Projects as below-average in the infield and could stand to move to the outfield, where his speed and athleticism would be better utilized.

[mvp 78]

I certainly believe rushing a player can be harmful, but I often think the effects are overblown and actually near negligible, in most cases. Maybe with studs like Bogey, this is true, but less skillful or mature young players, it's not true.

 

Easier to learn patience against AA and AAA pitchers than to be thrown into the fire of MLB. When he hacks at OOZ pitches, he just makes really weak contact. He'd get eaten alive once the book got around on him in MLB. When you have all these evaluators saying the exact same thing about a player, you probably should listen.

[moonslav59]

Easier to learn patience against AA and AAA pitchers than to be thrown into the fire of MLB. When he hacks at OOZ pitches, he just makes really weak contact. He'd get eaten alive once the book got around on him in MLB. When you have all these evaluators saying the exact same thing about a player, you probably should listen.

 

No doubt. I've always had confidence that the system knows when a player is "ready." I trust their calls and timing.

 

The Bogey situation was unique.

[mvp 78]

No doubt. I've always had confidence that the system knows when a player is "ready." I trust their calls and timing.

 

The Bogey situation was unique.

 

Xander was making really good contact and it made sense to rocket him through the org. The Braves do it for their top prospects.

 

At the end of 2013, it was really just supposed to be a cup of coffee, but the Sox had a really weak left side of the IF and the issue was forced. Clearly, Xander didn't have a great 2014 and probably could have used a little more seasoning. He only had an 822 OPS in AAA in 60 games. He wasn't banging the door down.

 

MLB wRC+

2013 85

2014 81

2015 111

[moonslav59]

Xander was making really good contact and it made sense to rocket him through the org. The Braves do it for their top prospects.

 

At the end of 2013, it was really just supposed to be a cup of coffee, but the Sox had a really weak left side of the IF and the issue was forced. Clearly, Xander didn't have a great 2014 and probably could have used a little more seasoning. He only had an 822 OPS in AAA in 60 games. He wasn't banging the door down.

 

MLB wRC+

2013 85

2014 81

2015 111

 

The "rushed" part I was referring to was making him play 3B after just 10 games at 3B in AAA and over his whole career.

[sk7326]

Xander was making really good contact and it made sense to rocket him through the org. The Braves do it for their top prospects.

 

At the end of 2013, it was really just supposed to be a cup of coffee, but the Sox had a really weak left side of the IF and the issue was forced. Clearly, Xander didn't have a great 2014 and probably could have used a little more seasoning. He only had an 822 OPS in AAA in 60 games. He wasn't banging the door down.

 

MLB wRC+

2013 85

2014 81

2015 111

 

Bogaerts was not crushing AAA, but he was not bad either ... and I think the org was mostly correct deciding that he was the best available option for solving what was a truly dreadful 3B position. Just being able to adequately get on base was a big deal.

 

Ultimately - when you compare the league perception of him as a prospect ... Bogaerts ended up being a better SS than expected, but never got into the sort of power that scouts dreamt.

[mvp 78]

The "rushed" part I was referring to was making him play 3B after just 10 games at 3B in AAA and over his whole career.

 

I don't think that made a real difference. I think he just wasn't quite ready.

[mvp 78]

Bogaerts was not crushing AAA, but he was not bad either ... and I think the org was mostly correct deciding that he was the best available option for solving what was a truly dreadful 3B position. Just being able to adequately get on base was a big deal.

 

Ultimately - when you compare the league perception of him as a prospect ... Bogaerts ended up being a better SS than expected, but never got into the sort of power that scouts dreamt.

 

Yes, we were told "the sound off his bat is different" and that the power would come. It never really did.

[moonslav59]

I don't think that made a real difference. I think he just wasn't quite ready.

 

Yes, I mentioned with players like Bogey, it doesn't really matter much.

[notin]

Bogaerts was not crushing AAA, but he was not bad either ... and I think the org was mostly correct deciding that he was the best available option for solving what was a truly dreadful 3B position. Just being able to adequately get on base was a big deal.

 

Ultimately - when you compare the league perception of him as a prospect ... Bogaerts ended up being a better SS than expected, but never got into the sort of power that scouts dreamt.

 

 

They still had hopes for Middlebrooks at the time…

[mvp 78]

Guys I'm excited to follow this season:

 

Roman Anthony - potential breakout candidate.

Luis Perales - will he be able to go a full season?

Hickey/Brannon/Scott - can one or two of the Catcher show that they can stick there long term?

Cutter Coffey - athletic, defensive 3B with plus power, but will probably be down in FCL most of the year. Can Sox get him to his ceiling?

[sk7326]

Guys I'm excited to follow this season:

 

Roman Anthony - potential breakout candidate.

Luis Perales - will he be able to go a full season?

Hickey/Brannon/Scott - can one or two of the Catcher show that they can stick there long term?

Cutter Coffey - athletic, defensive 3B with plus power, but will probably be down in FCL most of the year. Can Sox get him to his ceiling?

 

I won't go too deep into the top guys - much has been written about it ... however

 

Ceddane Rafaela - there is a "not crazy" scenario where he is the Sox' starting CF by the All Star break. It's unlikely - and as a 21 year old in AA, it would not be any sort of embarassment if it was not so. But the dreams of him feel more real than dream for others.

 

Bryan Mata - a little more time away from TJS. Of the pitchers, he also has an exciting albeit not all that likely ceiling. Mata is a good stand-in for a number of arms in the org with wide ranges of outcomes. Do any of them create some serious optimism?

 

Nick Yorke - ultimately his entire profile is based on his hitting. Can he get back on the positive train again?

 

Blaze Jordan - can he stay healthy, and can his batting practice show start to make it into actual games?

 

Miguel Bleis - listen to the discussion I posted a few days ago. He struck out A LOT. But he wasn't chasing pitches - and the contact he made was elite quality. Can he draw some more walks and command the strike zone better? It is important to temper some of the box score expectations, he is still a 19 year old in full season ball. In the before time, Bleis would have had a few reps at Lowell last season, but alas.

[mvp 78]

I won't go too deep into the top guys - much has been written about it ... however

 

Ceddane Rafaela - there is a "not crazy" scenario where he is the Sox' starting CF by the All Star break. It's unlikely - and as a 21 year old in AA, it would not be any sort of embarassment if it was not so. But the dreams of him feel more real than dream for others.

 

Bryan Mata - a little more time away from TJS. Of the pitchers, he also has an exciting albeit not all that likely ceiling. Mata is a good stand-in for a number of arms in the org with wide ranges of outcomes. Do any of them create some serious optimism?

 

Nick Yorke - ultimately his entire profile is based on his hitting. Can he get back on the positive train again?

 

Blaze Jordan - can he stay healthy, and can his batting practice show start to make it into actual games?

 

Miguel Bleis - listen to the discussion I posted a few days ago. He struck out A LOT. But he wasn't chasing pitches - and the contact he made was elite quality. Can he draw some more walks and command the strike zone better? It is important to temper some of the box score expectations, he is still a 19 year old in full season ball. In the before time, Bleis would have had a few reps at Lowell last season, but alas.

 

I tried to stay away from the top of the prospect list.

 

Rafaela has tantalizing tools. If he can learn a better approach, we'll see an improvement on some of his metrics like exit velocity. He shows a lot of power when he makes good contact, but he makes a lot of weak contact by chasing bad pitches just because he knows he can reach them.

 

Mata just isn't a guy who has been able to stay healthy ever. I wonder if they keep him in the rotation or just push him to the pen.

 

Yorke really needs a bounce back here. If he starts off hot and can put 2022 behind him, he'll be a bonafide top 100 guy again. Right now, his prospect standing has slipped. He also needs to stay healthy.

 

Is Blaze's issue healthy? He played 120 last year. The concern for him was being able to hit velo.

 

Bleis is young. He was even young for the complex league. Scouts were drooling over him when they watched him last season. He only had 2 k's his last 8 games.

[moonslav59]

MLB.com ranks the Sox top 30 prospects:

 

1. Mayer

2. Casas

3. Rafaela

4. Bleis

5. Romero

6. Yorke

7. Mata

8. Walter

9. Paulino

10. Anthony

11. Jordan

12. Gonzalez

13. Perales

14. Lugo

15. Murphy

16. Hickey

17. Bonaci

18. Valdez

19. Coffey

20. Kavadas

21. Meidroth

22. Brannon

23. Abreu

24. E R-C

25. Rogers

26. Kelly

27. Webb

28 Ravelo

29. Hamilton

30 F Encarnacion

 

Biggest difference from SP?

 

Dalton Rogers #25 (SP not in top 60)

Meidroth #21 (SPs at #36)

Jacob Webb #27 (SP not in top 60.)

No Drohan (#22on SP) in top 30

Edited February 28, 2023 by moonslav59

[mvp 78]

Ravelo higher than Freili Encarnacion? I'd disagree with that one at the very least.

 

Rogers is SP #53.

[moonslav59]

25. Brooks Brannon Has considerable upside if he can stick behind the plate given his power potential. Questions around hit tool and defense cloud projection, but very intriguing later-round pick.

 

24. Wilyer Abreu Has considerable upside if he can stick behind the plate given his power potential. Questions around hit tool and defense cloud projection, but very intriguing later-round pick.

 

23. Zack Kelly Projects as a middle reliever. Ceiling of a consistent seventh-inning arm. Likely lacks late-inning upside due to inconsistent command, but could stick around for a while as a sixth-inning arm. Fastball and changeup both project as plus pitches, with changeup showing true bat-missing ability. Cutter is more of a pitch-to-contact offering at present, but if it improves, would give him a third pitch that can miss bats. Late bloomer who could continue to improve and see his stuff take a step forward again.

 

22. Shane Drohan Potential up-and-down depth arm. Ceiling of a back-end starter or, more likely, middle reliever. Athletic left-hander who will show a three-pitch mix, but needs to develop physically and add velocity. Has more upside remaining than a typical college draftee. Has the type of athleticism you look for in a pitcher. Has shown a general feel for pitching and a repeatable delivery. Fastball command needs improvement, but changeup development and left-handedness give him a chance, most likely in a bullpen role.

 

21. Cutter Coffey Wide range of outcomes depending on how his hit tool develops. Has everyday potential if everything breaks right. High-risk, high-reward prospect. Will already show power and potential on the defensive side. Did not play against the best competition in high school and struggled at times to make contact against better amateur arms, leaving questions about how he will adjust to professional pitching.

[mvp 78]

Some Sox personnel believe Abreu can play CF.

[Bellhorn04]

Some Sox personnel believe Abreu can play CF.

 

Sox personnel seem to believe anyone can play anywhere, though.

[mvp 78]

Sox personnel seem to believe anyone can play anywhere, though.

 

That's affirmative.

 

It's just funny because the note from SoxProspects is "questions around hit tool and defense." LOL. The guy can take a walk, but he really struggled after coming to POR, didn't hit in the AFL and hasn't looked great in ST.

 

I'm not really high on either him or Valdez TBH. Both have struggled since leaving the HOU system and have weird profiles.

[moonslav59]

Some Sox personnel believe Abreu can play CF.

 

Lets just hope Rafaela wins the CF job by opening day 2024, and we won't have to worry bout corner OF'ers in CF, anymore.