2023 Prospects

[Old Red]

On no! I'm not really concerned about a 2 fWAR guy doing much damage. Like I said before, I hope he has a career year and the Yanks give him an Ellsbury type deal.

 

Dugy was one of the best players the Red Sox had the first part of the season last year, but went into the tank the second half. He’ll be on a contract year, and I expect him to have a good year next year, but either way the Red Sox, or the Yankees would not resign him. He’s more than a glorified platoon player that one has called him on here.

[Old Red]

I do think they wanted to trade him, but I don't think they would have, if they did not like the return.

 

I also think they wanted a RH'd OF bat, and the money saved helped them get O'Neill, and there is $4M left over for future spending, perhaps.

 

I like the return and O'Neill addition more than Dugo, so to me, the main reason is secondary.

I know you are hung up on the $4M, but I don’t think it had anything to do with a Dugy being traded. I believe Cora had a big hand in the trade as well, and it was just to get him out of town.

[Old Red]

I'm not sure that it matters that they traded away Verdugo and how it relates to Mookie Betts. Are we going to relitigate the Betts deal when Wong is no longer in the org too?

 

The Betts deal will be relitigated long after Betts is done playing.They still talk about the Babe, and Mookie is the next best thing.

Edited December 11, 2023 by Old Red

[moonslav59]

Dugy was one of the best players the Red Sox had the first part of the season last year, but went into the tank the second half. He’ll be on a contract year, and I expect him to have a good year next year, but either way the Red Sox, or the Yankees would not resign him. He’s more than a glorified platoon player that one has called him on here.

 

He should have been platooned, but we had 4 left fielders, and nobody to play RF well enough to do it.

 

How bad do you have to be for you to think a player should be platooned?

 

Dugo vs LHPs:

.609 in '23 (2 HRs in 135 PAs

.237 BA/ .319 OBP

(.666 in games when a LHP started)

 

.693 in '22 (1 HR in 127 PAs)

.266 BA/.329 OBP)

(.550 in games started by LHP)

 

I'm curious to see, if the Yanks play him vs a LHP, when they have someone who is a better defender and has better splits v LHPs than Dugo.

 

I would not be surprised if the Yanks trade him, after getting Soto.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Sitting around waiting to lose another offseason, I make a bad pun, and within minutes three guys reply, taking me seriously.

 

Shows you how edgy old Sox fans are getting these days. And I haven't even had any eggnog yet today...

[mvp 78]

Dugy was one of the best players the Red Sox had the first part of the season last year, but went into the tank the second half. He’ll be on a contract year, and I expect him to have a good year next year, but either way the Red Sox, or the Yankees would not resign him. He’s more than a glorified platoon player that one has called him on here.

 

IDK, he tanked once the rumor mill circled. He doesn't seem like a guy that can live up to pressure. His best season was 2020 when no fans were in attendance. I don't see him having a career year unless it's Yankee Stadium driven.

[mvp 78]

Sitting around waiting to lose another offseason, I make a bad pun, and within minutes three guys reply, taking me seriously.

 

Shows you how edgy old Sox fans are getting these days. And I haven't even had any eggnog yet today...

 

I'm at work and anxious to avoid doing work. What do you expect me to do? Not post on a weekday? Impossible!

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

I'm at work and anxious to avoid doing work. What do you expect me to do? Not post on a weekday? Impossible!

 

There's a different vibe on the board today. Almost everyone getting along, hoping for the best.

 

It's like separate nations forgetting petty disputes to support each other during the threat of an alien invasion.

[mvp 78]

There's a different vibe on the board today. Almost everyone getting along, hoping for the best.

 

It's like separate nations forgetting petty disputes to support each other during the threat of an alien invasion.

 

Maybe everyone else already started on their nog?

[Old Red]

IDK, he tanked once the rumor mill circled. He doesn't seem like a guy that can live up to pressure. His best season was 2020 when no fans were in attendance. I don't see him having a career year unless it's Yankee Stadium driven.

 

He won’t have the pressure in NY as he had in Boston, but he’ll be on a contract year, so it would be to his benefit if he wants to get paid better down the road. I think he’ll want to show up the Red Sox too.

[moonslav59]

Looking over the updated soxprospects.com rankings, I have a few observations:

 

1. I really like our top 3, and think it might be the best we've had in a very long time.

2. The next 7 have some real hope, but too many questions to be on the same level as our top 3. (There is a big gap between #3 Teel and #4 Rafaela.)

3. I like #10 Cespedes more than the other 4-10.

4. There is probably a big gap between #15 Joh. Garcia and #16 Hickey, but maybe Hickey can play 1B and hit well enough. #17 Paulino is a clear step down from 11-15/16.

5. I think DHam is overrated at #21, but that group from 21-38 are all pretty much bunched up.

6. Sleepers after 38? #45 K Campbell, #50 C Rosier, #60 Song.

[mvp 78]

Sleepers:

 

39 - Paez: hoping the new dev crew can get some additional MPH out of his arm

42 - Yuten: struggled at Salem, but a second year in US could see him pop

48 - Riemer: could be on the Meidroth track

49 - Olivarez: Mata part 2

54 - Liu: think he needs to be put in the bullpen and see if he gets additional life

[mvp 78]

A second Charlie Zink has hit the Boston Red Sox.

 

@TheBeatwriter

There will be another Charlie Zink in @RedSox uniform.

 

The Boston Red Sox signed P Charlie Zink from Curazao, last night in Medellin, Colombia. He is 17 years old.

[Larry Cook]

Sleepers:

 

39 - Paez: hoping the new dev crew can get some additional MPH out of his arm

42 - Yuten: struggled at Salem, but a second year in US could see him pop

48 - Riemer: could be on the Meidroth track

49 - Olivarez: Mata part 2

54 - Liu: think he needs to be put in the bullpen and see if he gets additional life

 

I have seen paez pitch and his stuff is not really exciting. He is not a power pitcher.

[mvp 78]

I have seen paez pitch and his stuff is not really exciting. He is not a power pitcher.

 

Right, that's why I want to see if the new focus on velo can get additional MPH out of the 19 year old. He's young so it's not unheard of to add velo, but 89-91 isn't going to cut it.

[Larry Cook]

Right, that's why I want to see if the new focus on velo can get additional MPH out of the 19 year old. He's young so it's not unheard of to add velo, but 89-91 isn't going to cut it.

 

We have a reliever named hoppe. He throws really hard, 95 plus, but his ball is super flat. I wonder what Bailey can do for him

[moonslav59]

We have a reliever named hoppe. He throws really hard, 95 plus, but his ball is super flat. I wonder what Bailey can do for him

 

Sena and Olivarez can throw mid 90’s, too.

 

Mata and Guerrero, as well.

 

I think Perales and Wikelman can touch 96.

[moonslav59]

From soxprospects.com...

 

Newly signed Jorge Benitez just keeps cranking out scoreless appearances for Caguas. His scoreless streak has continued to 11 1/3 innings and added a strikeout and allowed two hits while closing out Sunday's 7-2 win for Caguas. His season statistics now have him with 13 strikeouts, three walks, and seven hits over his 11 1/3 innings.

[moonslav59]

MLB Pipeline's Mock Draft 2024:

 

1. Nick Kurtz 1B CLE

2. JJ Wetherholt SS/2B CIN

3. Charlie Condon OF/1B COL

4. Jac Caglianone 1B/LHP OAK

5. Travis Bazzana 2B CWS

6. Vance Honeycutt OF KCR

7. Josh Hartle LHP STL

8. Seaver King OF/SS LAA

9. Konnor Griffin OF PIT (first HS player listed)

10. Tommy White 3B WSH

11. Mike Sirota OF DET

12. Hagen Smith LHP BOS (Arkansas)

13. Chase Burnes RHP SFG

14. Brody Brecht RHP CHC

15. Braden Montgomery OF/RHP SEA

 

Mydraft.com has Chase Burns going #3 and the Sox getting Noah Franco 1B/LHP IMG Academy (CA)

 

Another site has us taking Carter Johnson SS (Oxford HS, AL)

[Larry Cook]

MLB Pipeline's Mock Draft 2024:

 

1. Nick Kurtz 1B CLE

2. JJ Wetherholt SS/2B CIN

3. Charlie Condon OF/1B COL

4. Jac Caglianone 1B/LHP OAK

5. Travis Bazzana 2B CWS

6. Vance Honeycutt OF KCR

7. Josh Hartle LHP STL

8. Seaver King OF/SS LAA

9. Konnor Griffin OF PIT (first HS player listed)

10. Tommy White 3B WSH

11. Mike Sirota OF DET

12. Hagen Smith LHP BOS (Arkansas)

13. Chase Burnes RHP SFG

14. Brody Brecht RHP CHC

15. Braden Montgomery OF/RHP SEA

 

Mydraft.com has Chase Burns going #3 and the Sox getting Noah Franco 1B/LHP IMG Academy (CA)

 

Another site has us taking Carter Johnson SS (Oxford HS, AL)

 

I have seen smith pitch a few times, he has decent stuff maybe even better than hartle’s stuff!!! He would be a guy that gets to Portland fast. But after that who knows if he stays in the rotation

[moonslav59]

IFA signing period begins January 15:

 

International signing rules, spending

 

The pool breakdown is as follows:

 

The D-backs, Guardians, Orioles, Padres, Pirates, Rockies and Royals received a Competitive Balance Pick in Round B of the Draft and received $7,114,80. Teams with a Competitive Balance Pick in Round A (Athletics, Brewers, Mariners, Marlins, Rays, Reds, Tigers and Twins) each received $6,520,000.

 

Eight teams (Astros, Braves, Dodgers, Giants, Mets, Nationals, Red Sox and White Sox) have a $5,284,000 base signing pool. The Angels, Blue Jays, Cardinals and Cubs each forfeited $500,000 from their pools for signing players who had rejected qualifying offers -- Tyler Anderson, Chris Bassitt, Willson Contreras, and Dansby Swanson, respectively -- last offseason, so each has a pool of $5,152,000.

 

The Rangers, Padres, Phillies and Yankees each lost $1,000,000 for signing the following players who rejected qualifying offers -- Nathan Eovaldi and Jacob deGrom (TEX), Xander Bogaerts (SD), Trea Turner (PHI) and Carlos Rodon (NYY). The base signing pool for each of those four teams is $4,652,200.

 

The forfeited monies are redistributed to the other clubs.

 

Teams will be allowed to trade international bonus slots during this signing period starting Jan. 15.

 

MLB.com's top 50 List:

 

Top Baseball International Prospects | MLB.com

WWW.MLB.COM

---

The Official Site of Major League Baseball

[moonslav59]

One area of hope for the Sox is the farm.

 

I've mentioned, before how we have not traded a top 6 prospect since Moncada and Espinoza in 2016. (We traded #6 Beeks for Nate in '18 and #9 Aldo Ramirez for Schwarber in '21.)

 

We drafted a lot of high schoolers for several years, so the wait has been prolonged. The rise of some of DD's prospects has been surprising in some ways, but we witnessed a long drought of high impact prospects from the Devers call up in the summer of 2017 to the call ups of Casas and Bello in 2022 and 2023. That's about 5 years with the best homegrown prospect being Houck. (One could count Whitlock- the Rule 5 guy, I guess.)

 

So, aside from Whitlock and Houck in '21, it was pretty barren, here is what we have seen and can expect to see, starting in 2022:

 

Graduated in 2022:

Bello, Crawford, Duran, Winckowski, Wong

 

2023:

Casas, Bernardino, EValdez, Murphy, Kelly

 

2024 (expected: )

4. Rafaela

8. Abreu

11. Fitts

21 DHam, 24 Slaten (Rule 5), 28 Mata (out of options), 26 Guerrero, 32 Walter

36 Gambrell, 40 Scott, 40 H Olivarez, 50 Rosier

 

2025 (some may be called up in '24)

1. Anthont

2. Mayer

3. Teel

6. Yorke

9. Wikelman

13. Meidroth

16. Hickey

19. Jordan, 23 Dobbins, C Troye, I Coffey, Liu

 

2026 (some may e called up in '25)

4. Bleis

7. Perales

14. Castro

17. Paulino

18. Romero

20. Monegro, 26 E R-C, 27 Bastardo, 29 A Hoppe, Rogers, C Coffey, Penrod, K Campbell

 

Later than 2026:

10. Cespedes

12. Zanetello

15. Joh. Garcia

22. A Anderson, 30 Alcantara, F Arias, Brannon, Paez, Yuten, Ravelo, Cepeda, Sena, Riemer

 

Of course, many of these guys won't ever make the bigs. Many more will but won't impress, but I like our odds on a few making a significant impact in the next 1-2 years. I'm not pencilling in a single prospect, but I am near certain a few will be very good to excellent.

[Larry Cook]

One area of hope for the Sox is the farm.

 

I've mentioned, before how we have not traded a top 6 prospect since Moncada and Espinoza in 2016. (We traded #6 Beeks for Nate in '18 and #9 Aldo Ramirez for Schwarber in '21.)

 

We drafted a lot of high schoolers for several years, so the wait has been prolonged. The rise of some of DD's prospects has been surprising in some ways, but we witnessed a long drought of high impact prospects from the Devers call up in the summer of 2017 to the call ups of Casas and Bello in 2022 and 2023. That's about 5 years with the best homegrown prospect being Houck. (One could count Whitlock- the Rule 5 guy, I guess.)

 

So, aside from Whitlock and Houck in '21, it was pretty barren, here is what we have seen and can expect to see, starting in 2022:

 

Graduated in 2022:

Bello, Crawford, Duran, Winckowski, Wong

 

2023:

Casas, Bernardino, EValdez, Murphy, Kelly

 

2024 (expected: )

4. Rafaela

8. Abreu

11. Fitts

21 DHam, 24 Slaten (Rule 5), 28 Mata (out of options), 26 Guerrero, 32 Walter

36 Gambrell, 40 Scott, 40 H Olivarez, 50 Rosier

 

2025 (some may be called up in '24)

1. Anthont

2. Mayer

3. Teel

6. Yorke

9. Wikelman

13. Meidroth

16. Hickey

19. Jordan, 23 Dobbins, C Troye, I Coffey, Liu

 

2026 (some may e called up in '25)

4. Bleis

7. Perales

14. Castro

17. Paulino

18. Romero

20. Monegro, 26 E R-C, 27 Bastardo, 29 A Hoppe, Rogers, C Coffey, Penrod, K Campbell

 

Later than 2026:

10. Cespedes

12. Zanetello

15. Joh. Garcia

22. A Anderson, 30 Alcantara, F Arias, Brannon, Paez, Yuten, Ravelo, Cepeda, Sena, Riemer

 

Of course, many of these guys won't ever make the bigs. Many more will but won't impress, but I like our odds on a few making a significant impact in the next 1-2 years. I'm not pencilling in a single prospect, but I am near certain a few will be very good to excellent.

 

That 2025 class has a chance to be special!!! If winkleman learns command and control, he will be special as a starter

[moonslav59]

That 2025 class has a chance to be special!!! If winkleman learns command and control, he will be special as a starter

 

Agreed.

 

‘26 & ‘27 might be special, too.

[mvp 78]

That 2025 class has a chance to be special!!! If winkleman learns command and control, he will be special as a starter

 

It's one thing to have to work on command or control, but that he still is working on both means he's most likely a reliever IMO.

[notin]

It's one thing to have to work on command or control, but that he still is working on both means he's most likely a reliever IMO.

 

Well, one depends heavily on the other. It’s impossible to have command without having control.

 

Wikelman’s walk rates are astronomical. And that’s been against minor league hitters. If he can’t find the strike zone, he won’t be of much use as a major leaguer in any capacity…

[mvp 78]

Well, one depends heavily on the other. It’s impossible to have command without having control.

 

Wrong! I simulated a pitcher where he was able to hit a target perfectly as long as it was outside the strike zone every time. Once the glove was in the zone, the pitches became erratic.

 

What follows is a post where moon tries to convince me that I can never admit to being wrong.

[Bellhorn04]

Well, one depends heavily on the other. It’s impossible to have command without having control.

 

In the world outside baseball, command and control are virtually synonymous. That's why this is so confoozing.

[mvp 78]

In the world outside baseball, command and control are virtually synonymous. That's why this is so confoozing.

 

Control: hitting the strike zone

Command: hitting the mitt

 

I think that is the general gist.

[notin]

Control: hitting the strike zone

Command: hitting the mitt

 

I think that is the general gist.

 

Almost verbatim of how Steve Stone explains it…