2023 Prospects

[mvp 78]

I think it's 2 concerns now:

 

1) Can he stay healthy?

2) Can he still catch up to high heat?

 

Valid concerns. He's been horrible against fastballs the past two years. I think he was trying to cheat against the heat last season which got him to have bad numbers against sliders too.

[moonslav59]

Why include Bogey's '22? The time periods aren't the same.

 

 

I said why. I took the 4 previous season before free agency, and also compared only numbers when Story was w COL and Bogey was with BOS, which was a point brought up, not long ago.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Story also has a higher WOBA and Hard Hit %.

 

Xander's a more patient hitter, but he's also more likely to watch a pitch go right down the middle of the plate.

 

Meatball Swing %

 

Xander 67.4

Story 77.9

 

Not arguing with the mighty metrics, but big league baseball can certainly use more batters who don't always swing from the heels, and instead shorten up and put the damn ball in play.

 

Arraez led the majors with 160 singles and a .354 batting average -- and what batting order couldn't use that consistency. Bogey led all shortstops with 118 one-base hits.

 

In 2017 I sat a few rows from home plate at a Fenway game when Bogaerts got up with the winning run on third. He literally choked up and punched the pitch into right field with just his arms for the walk-off. Nobody booed.

[mvp 78]

I said why. I took the 4 previous season before free agency, and also compared only numbers when Story was w COL and Bogey was with BOS, which was a point brought up, not long ago.

 

It's just weird to use differing periods when we were obviously comparing Xander and Story at the time Story was signed.

[Hugh2]

Look at their last 4-5 years before signing. See my last post. It's more than 5 base points in OPS+ and wRC+.

 

OPS+ for 4 seasons before singing:

 

117 Story

133 Bogey

 

I'm being kind to Story by dropping the 5th year back: Bogey 135 to 84.

Last 5 years:

110 Story

133 Bogey

 

That's still not a significant difference, and I'm not sure it makes up for the defensive gap.

 

The point was, is and will always be that at that point in time, Story was just as valuable a player as Bogaerts was.

 

since then is different.

[mvp 78]

Not arguing with the mighty metrics, but big league baseball can certainly use more batters who don't always swing from the heels, and instead shorten up and put the damn ball in play.

 

Arraez led the majors with 160 singles and a .354 batting average -- and what batting order couldn't use that consistency. Bogey led all shortstops with 118 one-base hits.

 

In 2017 I sat a few rows from home plate at a Fenway game when Bogaerts got up with the winning run on third. He literally choked up and punched the pitch into right field with just his arms for the walk-off. Nobody booed.

 

He didn't lead all SS's, Bo Bichette did. Xander was also the only SS of the top 6 in hits who didn't get 20 HR's or 60 RBI's. His 21 GDIP were most in that group and second overall.

[moonslav59]

It's just weird to use differing periods when we were obviously comparing Xander and Story at the time Story was signed.

 

Someone mentioned the COL effect, so that alone was reason to make separate time periods.

 

I also listed year by year numbers, so you could compare 2018 to 2018, 2019 to 2019, and so on.

 

The numbers don't change much, if I do as you seem to think it the only relative thing:

 

OPS+

2018-2021:

117 Story

134 Bogey

 

2017-2021:

110 Story

125 Bogey

 

The differentials are way more than the "5" claimed.

 

IMO, Bogey was better on O than Story.

Story is way better than Bogey on D.

 

[Hugh2]

The argument will always be there that up until 2021 Trevor Story was just as valuable and arguably more than Xander Bogaerts, afterwards.......up until, not so much.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

He didn't lead all SS's, Bo Bichette did. Xander was also the only SS of the top 6 in hits who didn't get 20 HR's or 60 RBI's. His 21 GDIP were most in that group and second overall.

 

Holy crap - I meant all NL SSs. And Bogey only hit 19 HRs and 58 RBIs, what a bust. Lucky the Sox chose another guy who has batted .227 with a .287 on base and .398 slugging the past two years instead.

[Hugh2]

If you factor in a 5% mob inflation rate, and consider Story WAS of equal value to Bogaerts, then Story would have been worth 258/11 back in 2022.

 

Which ironically is almost the exact AAV Story has now…..minus 5 years. If Story has healthy he would have been opting out. That only works out for the Sox if he’s healthy going forward. Which isn’t terribly unlikely.

[moonslav59]

That's still not a significant difference, and I'm not sure it makes up for the defensive gap.

 

The point was, is and will always be that at that point in time, Story was just as valuable a player as Bogaerts was.

 

since then is different.

 

I have never doubted this.

 

I'm a huge fan of defense, especially at SS. When we signed Story, I argued we play Bogey at 2B.

 

I just said, Bogey was better on O, and Story was better on D. I never said who was better, overall.

 

Bogey was not really showing major signes of decline on offense, as measured by OPS+ and wRC+, but his RBI totals fell off a cliff in '21 (and continued after the MVP mandated comp period.)

 

At the end of 2021, I think they were similar in overall value. The known injury to Story was the wrench in the comp, at the time.

 

Story's OPS+ in 2021 was 102, which may have been related to the known injury.

 

I think the difference on offense at the end of 2021 was "significant." Previous seasons:

 

Bogey>Story OPS+ in reverse order of seasons:

 

2021: 129>102 +28% better

2020: 128>120 +8% better

2019: 139>120 +19% better

2018: 135> 127 +8% better

2017: 95> 84 +11% better

2016: 111> 122 -11% worse (6 years before the comp time.)

 

2018-2021

134>117 (+17% better)

 

2019-2021

133>110 (+23% better)

 

OOA 2018-2021

+6 Story

-25 Bogey

 

DRS

+43 Story (4296 innings)

-26 Bogey (4158)

 

They were very close in overall value after 2021- just in very disticntly different ways.

 

'18-'21

16.0 Bogey fWAR (20.1 bWAR)

15.9 Story fWAR (19.9 bWAR

Edited October 31, 2023 by moonslav59

[Dipre]

No one said anything about quality. Bogaerts makes better contact -- as in more contact is better -- because he strikes out 10% less than Story... over their entire careers.

 

More contact=/= better contact.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Red Sox dWAR in the Wild Card Era (1995-2023)

 

According to bb-ref, most of you probably guessed the best Boston fielder the past quarter century was a shortstop. Yup, John Valentin: 3.0 dWAR in 1995.

 

Next in line was Betts in '16 and '17 at 2.7 and 2.6... followed by Nomar in '02, 2.5, then Beltre and Pedroia, tied at 2.4 in '10/11.

 

The best '23 Red Sox defender, and top catcher in dWAR the past 28 years, is Wong, listed at #20 with 1.9 dWAR.

 

Mookie and Pedey were in the Sox' top 33 five times each; Jackie Bradley made it three times.

 

Bogaerts is listed #36 for his 1.4 dWAR in '22 -- the same season Story landed at #60 for his 1.0 dWAR at second base.

[Bellhorn04]

The argument will always be there that up until 2021 Trevor Story was just as valuable and arguably more than Xander Bogaerts, afterwards.......up until, not so much.

 

When we signed Story I compared his fWAR per game to Bogey's and it was just slightly lower, so yes, they were very close.

[moonslav59]

Red Sox dWAR in the Wild Card Era (1995-2023)

 

According to bb-ref, most of you probably guessed the best Boston fielder the past quarter century was a shortstop. Yup, John Valentin: 3.0 dWAR in 1995.

 

Next in line was Betts in '16 and '17 at 2.7 and 2.6... followed by Nomar in '02, 2.5, then Beltre and Pedroia, tied at 2.4 in '10/11.

 

The best '23 Red Sox defender, and top catcher in dWAR the past 28 years, is Wong, listed at #20 with 1.9 dWAR.

 

Mookie and Pedey were in the Sox' top 33 five times each; Jackie Bradley made it three times.

 

Bogaerts is listed #36 for his 1.4 dWAR in '22 -- the same season Story landed at #60 for his 1.0 dWAR at second base.

 

Best DRS Seasons since 1974 (last 50 years)

30 Betts in 2016 & 2017 RF

22 Vic 2013 RF

20 Beltre '10 3B

19 Betts '19 RF

18 Pedey '11 2b

17 Betts '18 RF

16 JBJ '14 CF

15 Coco '07 CF

15 Leon '17 C

14 Nixon '05, Pedey '09, Aviles '12 at SS, Vaz '14, JBJ '16 & '17, Kike '21

13 Pedey, AGon. Jake

12 Reese, Agon, Pedey, Beni

 

No split seasons:

99 Betts and Pedey

49 JBJ & Vaz

44 Youk

30 Leon

26 Vic

25 AGon

23 Beni

20 Beltre (1 season!) & Kike

17 Betts in CF

16 Moreland

15 Aviles at SS & Dugo in LF

 

The worst:

-67 Manny

-53 Devers

-50 Bogey

-21 Nunez & Lugo

-19 Duran & Swi

-17 Damon

-16 VMart at C

-15 Pablito

 

 

 

 

[moonslav59]

When we signed Story I compared his fWAR per game to Bogey's and it was just slightly lower, so yes, they were very close.

 

'18-'21

16.0 Bogey fWAR (20.1 bWAR)

15.9 Story fWAR (19.9 bWAR

 

Can't get much closer.

[Hugh2]

When we signed Story I compared his fWAR per game to Bogey's and it was just slightly lower, so yes, they were very close.

 

And one got $110 dollars more. I suppose Story's elbow is what drove his price down. Could end up being a bargain if he comes back full strength this year.

 

To date, that has not been the case. We will see.

[Hugh2]

'18-'21

16.0 Bogey fWAR (20.1 bWAR)

15.9 Story fWAR (19.9 bWAR

 

Can't get much closer.

 

It's such an interesting argument because using hindsight anyone would take Bogaerts now BUT, anyone could be forgiven if they took Story over Bogaerts if they were building a hypothetical team back in 2020. The size of their contracts still gives Story time to be a better deal, but he has to come back strong, and Bogaerts has a lot of years left on his deal.

[Bellhorn04]

It's such an interesting argument because using hindsight anyone would take Bogaerts now BUT, anyone could be forgiven if they took Story over Bogaerts if they were building a hypothetical team back in 2020. The size of their contracts still gives Story time to be a better deal, but he has to come back strong, and Bogaerts has a lot of years left on his deal.

 

I think the contract Bogey got might be the most insane contract ever handed out. Most people figured he'd get $200 mill at the absolute most.

[Hugh2]

I think the contract Bogey got might be the most insane contract ever handed out. Most people figured he'd get $200 mill at the absolute most.

 

Yeah, I was one of those people. I actually was arguing that Bogaerts and his agent were asking for 300/10. I didn't think he would get that, but I figured it would be the starting point for Boras. Figured someone would come in and say..."Yeah.......I'll pay $30 per but not for 10, maybe 6-7 years), the AAV and years would get split somewhere.

 

The guess I stuck with all last offseason was $217/8. I knew I was high, and I was banking on it being higher than what most people were guessing because that's almost ALWAYS the case. I did not think it was going to be that, that was just insane.

[moonslav59]

It's such an interesting argument because using hindsight anyone would take Bogaerts now BUT, anyone could be forgiven if they took Story over Bogaerts if they were building a hypothetical team back in 2020. The size of their contracts still gives Story time to be a better deal, but he has to come back strong, and Bogaerts has a lot of years left on his deal.

 

Even knowing the risk of Story's injury, which contract would look better after 2021?

 

$140M/6 Story

 

$200M/8 Bogey (this is assuming, he'd have taken that before March 2021.)

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Even knowing the risk of Story's injury, which contract would look better after 2021?

 

$140M/6 Story

 

$200M/8 Bogey (this is assuming, he'd have taken that before March 2021.)

 

Are Bogey's numbers hypothetical? Bloom and his cohorts gave Story $141M for 6 years... or $23.5M per. Then they offered X a $30M extension, which would've brought his opt-IN contract to 4 years for $90M... or $22.5M per.

 

Not only were they insulting Bogey, they were blatantly telling him: we value the new guy more than you. Bloom's not stupid -- he studied Homer (not Whiffer)... bottom line: the Red Flops wanted Xander to refuse, opt out, and leave.

 

Or they arrogantly thought he'd stay at their price, since he was never shy about professing his love for Boston -- just like Jon Lester. So they never even tried to negotiate, until they ultimately offered Bogey a last-minute deal equivalent to Story's (according to Alex Speier).

 

Since WAR is an overall evaluator, comparisons seem fair, but even with similar values, they were and are different player types. But only one had proven he could excel in Boston, the AL East, and win two World Series rings.

[mvp 78]

@SoxProspects

Corey Rosier went 2-for-5 with a double (4) and a stolen base (8) in last night's 9-5 Glendale Desert Dog victory. The 24-year-old outfielder has slashed .303/.391/.382 over 87 PA in this year's Arizona Fall League. He is #44 on the #SP60.

 

Throwback type player.

[mvp 78]

@SoxProspects

The following players have elected minor league free agency.

 

-Skylar Arias

-Narciso Crook

-Tyler Dearden

-Tyler Esplin

-Michael Gettys

-Rio Gomez

-Ronaldo Hernandez

-Dominic LoBrutto

-Oddanier Mosqueda

-Brendan Nail

-Aaron Perry

-Tyreque Reed

-Sterling Sharp

-Bradley Zimmer

[moonslav59]

@SoxProspects

Corey Rosier went 2-for-5 with a double (4) and a stolen base (8) in last night's 9-5 Glendale Desert Dog victory. The 24-year-old outfielder has slashed .303/.391/.382 over 87 PA in this year's Arizona Fall League. He is #44 on the #SP60.

 

Throwback type player.

 

Another reason to trade Dugo.

[moonslav59]

ETAs of our top prospects- coming soon to a stadium near you!

 

2024

4. Rafaela

6. Yorke

12. Abreu

13. Drohan

15. Walter

DHam, Mata (out of options), Guerrero, Scott, Fernandez,

 

2025

1. Mayer

2. Anthony

5. Teel

8. Wikelman

16. Meidroth

19. Hickey

21. EValdez

Dobbins, Bastardo, Gambrell, Hoppe, Rosier, Troye, Song

 

2026

3. Bleis

17. Castro

18. Romero

20. Paulino

Monegro, Jordan, E R-C, Rogers, Penrod, Campbell

 

2027

8. Zanetello

10. Cespedes

14. Jo Garcia

A Anderson, Brannon, Ravelo

[mvp 78]

@MattCouture5

@baseballpro has released their updated Red Sox prospect rankings:

 

1. OF Roman Anthony

2. SS Marcelo Mayer

3. C Kyle Teel

4. OF/SS Ceddanne Rafaela

5. OF Miguel Bleis

 

Is Baseball Prospectus the first big one to put Roman ahead of Marcelo?

[moonslav59]

@MattCouture5

@baseballpro has released their updated Red Sox prospect rankings:

 

1. OF Roman Anthony

2. SS Marcelo Mayer

3. C Kyle Teel

4. OF/SS Ceddanne Rafaela

5. OF Miguel Bleis

 

Is Baseball Prospectus the first big one to put Roman ahead of Marcelo?

 

I think he belongs there, as well as Teel in the top 3.

[mvp 78]

I think he belongs there, as well as Teel in the top 3.

 

No complaints from me.

[moonslav59]

Tomorrow is the deadline for Rule 5 additions to the 40.