2023 Free Agents

[notin]

I was hoping to get Lopez. Dammit!

 

It looks like he would have cost us Casas…

[moonslav59]

It looks like he would have cost us Casas…

 

Not for just Lopez.

 

Hey, now that MIA gave 3 for 1, maybe they can take a 2 or 3 for 1 or 2 trade with us:

 

Dalbec & Ort for Wendle

 

Murphy, Duran & Dalbec for Berti & Wendle

[moonslav59]

Lopez had just 2 years of team control.

[notin]

Not for just Lopez.

 

Hey, now that MIA gave 3 for 1, maybe they can take a 2 or 3 for 1 or 2 trade with us:

 

Dalbec & Ort for Wendle

 

Murphy, Duran & Dalbec for Berti & Wendle

 

Even if it was Casas for Lopez, Salas and any random Miami project prospect. Do you do it?

[Bellhorn04]

Even if it was Casas for Lopez, Salas and any random Miami project prospect. Do you do it?

 

I wouldn't, because as noted, Lopez is only 2 years of control, and 2023 doesn't look like a championship run.

[moonslav59]

Even if it was Casas for Lopez, Salas and any random Miami project prospect. Do you do it?

 

Salas looks pretty promising, but he's too far away to bet Casas on him helping out 3-4 years from now.

 

To me, the Lopez trade showed that MIA valued him less than I thought they did. A straight up trade made more sense, and BTV agrees.

 

By value, alone, a Houck and Duran for Lopez was better on BTV than Casas for Lopez and Salas and throw in Wendle.

[Jasonbay44]

Blown saves are a joke stat. Especially for non-closing relievers. At least closers typically come in at the beginning of the ninth inning. But other relievers often come in with men on base, and those men can and do score and cause blown saves all the time…

 

Sure, but Barnes pretty consistently has blown games, whether it be 7th, 8th, 9th or whatever, it still takes a lot of failure to lead league in blown saves.

[notin]

Sure, but Barnes pretty consistently has blown games, whether it be 7th, 8th, 9th or whatever, it still takes a lot of failure to lead league in blown saves.

 

Of course, if you read 5Gold's post, you will notice he said "AL Leader". Not MLB leader. Over that stretch, the MLB leader in Blown Saves is Edwin Diaz. I assume we should attribute more failure to him. Barnes total ties him for 10th with Alex Colome.

 

In order to lead the AL in any category over a 6 season stretch, a player would benefit greatly from being in the AL for all 6 seasons. That original post about Barnes is actually penalizing him for sticking around. Worth noting. Barnes also leads all AL relief pitchers in in appearances over that stretch.

 

Also worth noting, Barnes is third in Holds over that same stretch with 80. His 126 Holds plus Saves is 5th in the AL, behind Alex Colome, Aroldis Champman, Liam Hendricks and Ryan Pressly. It's not like he was some sort of save-blowing machine who did nothing but ruin Sox leads. He was a decent reeliver who had a horrible 10 IP stretch to end 2021 that carried over to start 2022. But he also finished last year very strong...

Edited January 21, 2023 by notin

[Bellhorn04]

Of course, if you read 5Gold's post, you will notice he said "AL Leader". Not MLB leader. Over that stretch, the MLB leader in Blown Saves is Edwin Diaz.

 

That should settle that.

[dgalehouse]

Matt Barnes is an okay reliever. Has his ups and downs. A career 4 ERA guy. Edwin Diaz is the best in the game at this time. Let's keep it real here.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Matt Barnes is an okay reliever. Has his ups and downs. A career 4 ERA guy. Edwin Diaz is the best in the game at this time. Let's keep it real here.

 

Right, according to notin, Barnes only sucked in 10 innings in '21, not like his stats show every single August of his career, when teams are trying to gear up for a stretch run.

[notin]

Right, according to notin, Barnes only sucked in 10 innings in '21, not like his stats show every single August of his career, when teams are trying to gear up for a stretch run.

 

I said he was a decent reliever who had 10 horrible IP at the end of 2021. I can stand by that.

 

I also said Blown Saves are a joke. They are. That Edwin Diaz was the league leader over that stretch supports my viewpoint. I stand by that, too.

 

And I said making it the AL lead eliminated the bulk of pitchers who pitched in the NL or both leagues over that stretch. That Barnes was 10th overall but first among AL-only supports me there.

 

He’s a decent RP. My biggest issue with him was Cora’s insistence on using him in extra innings last year while he was struggling. I think he’ll be ok this year, but the bullpen doesn’t depend on him to be successful as a whole…

[Bellhorn04]

Right, according to notin, Barnes only sucked in 10 innings in '21, not like his stats show every single August of his career, when teams are trying to gear up for a stretch run.

 

True, but his September ERA is 2.54, and his postseason ERA is 0.79 in 11.1 IP.

[moonslav59]

Matt Barnes is an okay reliever. Has his ups and downs. A career 4 ERA guy. Edwin Diaz is the best in the game at this time. Let's keep it real here.

 

It's 3.88 since 2017 with an FIP of 3.35.

 

How is this for keeping it real?

 

Since 2017, among 114 RP'ers with 200 + IP, Barnes is...

 

T20th in fWAR at 4.8

21st in RP IP at 313

15th in xFIP at 3.34 (Martin i #7 at 3.01 & Jansen is 17th at 3.36)

 

A lot depends on a Barnes recovery from whatever was bothering him last in '21 and for some of '22, but if he can just give us his norm from 2017-2022, we'll have a solid #2-#3 RP'er being asked to be our #4 behind Jansen, Martin and Schreiber.

 

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

True, but his September ERA is 2.54, and his postseason ERA is 0.79 in 11.1 IP.

 

I'm not a complainer about small sample sizes -- because postseasons are just smaller, but count way more in the grand scheme. Though when it comes to relievers, ERA is usually a bad gauge when you have to watch someone else allow your inherited runners to score (or when you allow someone else's runners to score).

 

Barnes was great when the Red Sox were in 2018... then in 2021 he threw one inning in the wild card and gave up 2 walks and a hit (no runs though).

 

About Septembers, I don't have specific stats on innings so I could be wrong, but it seems like he wasn't used in as many late or high lev situations after his usual August implosions.

[moonslav59]

I'm not a complainer about small sample sizes -- because postseasons are just smaller, but count way more in the grand scheme. Though when it comes to relievers, ERA is usually a bad gauge when you have to watch someone else allow your inherited runners to score (or when you allow someone else's runners to score).

 

Barnes was great when the Red Sox were in 2018... then in 2021 he threw one inning in the wild card and gave up 2 walks and a hit (no runs though).

 

About Septembers, I don't have specific stats on innings so I could be wrong, but it seems like he wasn't used in as many late or high lev situations after his usual August implosions.

 

If you figure 65 IP per season is the norm for closers and set-up me, 11 IP per month is the average.

 

Barnes in 2022:

12.1 IP in AUG 2.92 ERA

10.1 IP in SEP 0.00 ERA

 

All of his last 15 appearances were in the 8th inning or later:

14.1 IP 1.26 ERA, 3.18 FIP, .635 OPS Against and maybe an unlucky .302 BAbip.

No blown saves

5 saves

4 Holds

The only game he let up runs in, he entered with the Sox down 8-5.

Game logs

1. entered in 9th down 6-5 (OER)

2. entered 8th up 9-8 (0ER & Hold)

3. entered down 8-5 (2 ER)

4. 9th up 6-5 (0 save)

5. 9th up 5-3 (0 Hold)

6. 8th down 3-2 (0 ER)

7. 9th up 1-0 (0 Save)

8. 9th down 7-6 (0ER)

9. 9th up 13-3 (0ER) LOW LEVERAGE

10. 8th up 5-3 (0 ER Hold)

11. 9th down 5-4 (0 ER)

12. 9th up 13-9 (0ER)

13. 9th up 3-1 (0 Save)

14. 9th up 4-3 (0 Save)

15. 9th up 6-3 (0 Save)

 

Last 23 IP of 2022, he had a .590 OPS Against.

 

Season:

.681 Late & Close

.664 High Leverage (64 PAs)

,663 Medium (31)

.689 Low (81)

 

I gotta throw in one more number:

8.49 ERA w Vaz

3.09 w Plawecki

2.25 w Wong

2.19 w McGuire

[dgalehouse]

Like most stats, ERA can be deceptive in smaller sample sizes. But when looking at a career with a large base of innings pitched, ERA is the best indicator of success or lack of success for a pitcher. All of the little fluky things tend to even out over the long haul. All the other alphabet soup of stats for pitchers are just a part of the picture. ERA is the bottom line.

[moonslav59]

Like most stats, ERA can be deceptive in smaller sample sizes. But when looking at a career with a large base of innings pitched, ERA is the best indicator of success or lack of success for a pitcher. All of the little fluky things tend to even out over the long haul. All the other alphabet soup of stats for pitchers are just a part of the picture. ERA is the bottom line.

 

RP'ers often come into innings with 1-2 outs. That, alone skews their ERA numbers.

 

Starters often leave the game with men on base and get charged runs or not based on how well the next guy does.

 

All stats are part of the soup. ERA is just one, but it does have 3 letters.

 

(BTW, WHIP has 4.)

Edited January 21, 2023 by moonslav59

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

If you figure 65 IP per season is the norm for closers and set-up me, 11 IP per month is the average.

 

Barnes in 2022:

12.1 IP in AUG 2.92 ERA

10.1 IP in SEP 0.00 ERA

 

All of his last 15 appearances were in the 8th inning or later:

14.1 IP 1.26 ERA, 3.18 FIP, .635 OPS Against and maybe an unlucky .302 BAbip.

No blown saves

5 saves

4 Holds

The only game he let up runs in, he entered with the Sox down 8-5.

Game logs

1. entered in 9th down 6-5 (OER)

2. entered 8th up 9-8 (0ER & Hold)

3. entered down 8-5 (2 ER)

4. 9th up 6-5 (0 save)

5. 9th up 5-3 (0 Hold)

6. 8th down 3-2 (0 ER)

7. 9th up 1-0 (0 Save)

8. 9th down 7-6 (0ER)

9. 9th up 13-3 (0ER) LOW LEVERAGE

10. 8th up 5-3 (0 ER Hold)

11. 9th down 5-4 (0 ER)

12. 9th up 13-9 (0ER)

13. 9th up 3-1 (0 Save)

14. 9th up 4-3 (0 Save)

15. 9th up 6-3 (0 Save)

 

Last 23 IP of 2022, he had a .590 OPS Against.

 

Season:

.681 Late & Close

.664 High Leverage (64 PAs)

,663 Medium (31)

.689 Low (81)

 

I gotta throw in one more number:

8.49 ERA w Vaz

3.09 w Plawecki

2.25 w Wong

2.19 w McGuire

 

Barnes is certainly a saga. All-Star and left off a playoff roster in the same season, loses job in '22 -- then suddenly appears in a Double A game working on finding his curveball (I was sitting behind home plate)... then back in the bigs for the final month of a last place finish. Maybe if he's on this year they can give him a vacation in August, like Pedro used to get every summer to rest his arm.

[moonslav59]

Barnes is certainly a saga. All-Star and left off a playoff roster in the same season, loses job in '22 -- then suddenly appears in a Double A game working on finding his curveball (I was sitting behind home plate)... then back in the bigs for the final month of a last place finish. Maybe if he's on this year they can give him a vacation in August, like Pedro used to get every summer to rest his arm.

 

I don't have much faith in Barnes for 2023, but I certainly see him as a good possibility for filling a key role. We already have Jansen, Martin, Houck and Schreiber, so he may not be needed as a top 4 RP'er, but he could very well become our #2 or 3.

[notin]

Like most stats, ERA can be deceptive in smaller sample sizes. But when looking at a career with a large base of innings pitched, ERA is the best indicator of success or lack of success for a pitcher. All of the little fluky things tend to even out over the long haul. All the other alphabet soup of stats for pitchers are just a part of the picture. ERA is the bottom line.

 

 

ERA is nice because everyone can relate to it. But all the differences just don’t even out. If you’ve ever watched a Colorado pitcher and checked out his road ERA because you didn’t possibly think he could be that bad (Jon Gray), then you know it’s not the end-all-be-all. And ballpark is just one factor…

[notin]

Barnes is certainly a saga. All-Star and left off a playoff roster in the same season, loses job in '22 -- then suddenly appears in a Double A game working on finding his curveball (I was sitting behind home plate)... then back in the bigs for the final month of a last place finish. Maybe if he's on this year they can give him a vacation in August, like Pedro used to get every summer to rest his arm.

 

If Barnes is the 5th or 6th man in the bullpen, then maybe he won’t be as worn out in August…

[moonslav59]

If Barnes is the 5th or 6th man in the bullpen, then maybe he won’t be as worn out in August…

 

Even as the 3rd or 4th RP'er, they could manage his workload better.

[notin]

Even as the 3rd or 4th RP'er, they could manage his workload better.

 

Unless they deal Houck, he’s probably no higher than fifth…

[moonslav59]

Unless they deal Houck, he’s probably no higher than fifth…

 

Yes, to start the year, I have Barnes at #5.

 

That is also assuming Houck is not starting.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

For those who think next year's free agent class will be better investments, which starting pitcher will Bloom bet on -- if he's finally willing to wager our wagers -- in the market a year from now?

 

Here are your under-30 candidates: Julio Urias, German Marquez, Jack Flaherty, Brad Keller.

 

Other youngish 31 year olds: Blake Snell, Zach Davies, Tyler Mahle, Jordan Montgomery. Aaron Nola could also be available, but he's a Phillie and his GM likes to spend big to lock up key guys before the bidding begins.

[Bellhorn04]

ERA is nice because everyone can relate to it. But all the differences just don’t even out. If you’ve ever watched a Colorado pitcher and checked out his road ERA because you didn’t possibly think he could be that bad (Jon Gray), then you know it’s not the end-all-be-all. And ballpark is just one factor…

 

I think a lot of old schoolers can probably wrap their heads around ERA+...

[Old Red]

I think a lot of old schoolers can probably wrap their heads around ERA+...

 

I can even do that.

[notin]

I think a lot of old schoolers can probably wrap their heads around ERA+...

 

Ok but that isn’t ERA. And ERA+ doesn’t take into account defense…

[notin]

For those who think next year's free agent class will be better investments, which starting pitcher will Bloom bet on -- if he's finally willing to wager our wagers -- in the market a year from now?

 

Here are your under-30 candidates: Julio Urias, German Marquez, Jack Flaherty, Brad Keller.

 

Other youngish 31 year olds: Blake Snell, Zach Davies, Tyler Mahle, Jordan Montgomery. Aaron Nola could also be available, but he's a Phillie and his GM likes to spend big to lock up key guys before the bidding begins.

 

Then why did he let Mookie get away?

 

But in all seriousness, Nola’s massive steps forward the last few years make me wonder if Dombrowski would be incredibly stupid to not lock Nola up long term, or if he would be incredibly stupid to lock him up…