2023 Free Agents

[moonslav59]

If Bogey is gone I don't think they go after Turner or Correa. They will cost more.

 

But they are actually going to be a SS for more than 2-3 years. That might be the main reason we are not high on Bogey- not the money.

[moonslav59]

Elvis Andrus is coming off a season in which he recorded 8 OAA defensively (second in MLB behind Swanson) and also had a 103 OPS+ and hit 17 HRs. And is getting 0 buzz.

 

If the Sox want to spend on Senga, Nimmo, Conforto, Contreras, Narvaez, Jansen, whoever, Andrus is the cheap way to fill a hole effectively…

 

...and as a bridge to Mayer.

 

I'm beginning to see the hopes in Senga as being better than some of these names being mentioned- like Heaney & Eflin. I think I still prefer Taillon from the second tier SP'ers, but it still looks like a trade is the only way we'll get an ace, this winter.

[moonslav59]

We need bullpen help, but I don’t get why they signed him for 2 years.

 

So the Rays would not sign him for $10M/1.

[Bellhorn04]

Which means they’re overdue. When’s the last time they were $100 million under the cap?

 

The Sox think longer than our short term memories. I don’t think it’s a bloom/DD thing. It’s a John Henry thing. Bloom has never been given the chance to spend, until this year.

 

Being $100 million under the cap doesn't put Bloom in a wonderful position, though, because the only real dead money he lost was Price's $16 mill. Most of it comes from the expired contracts of JDM, Bogey, Eovaldi, Wacha and Hill, all of whom were contributors in varying degrees and have to be replaced. Plus guys like Devers and Verdugo will be getting arb raises.

 

And prices for FA talent are exorbitant, as we're seeing.

 

So he really has to hit his targets.

[moonslav59]

I think you have the money to where if you spend it wisely you’re competing for a wildcard, but if you have a clean bill of health you compete for the division.

 

Regardless, you should be a playoff team.

In absence of Bello, I think you have to ship out Casas and that makes Hosmer/Dalbec your 1B platoon (is high might not be as bad as people think) but I still think Mayer/Bleis ship out too. They could be the next Correa/Trout. Two very talented guy.

 

I’m ok with it, if we are already a championship caliber organization….which we are not.

 

I would still like to explore trades with teams to take on some salary to reduce the prospect cost. Florida always comes to mind there, but there are others.

 

I'm okay with trading a top prospect if we get an ace with 3+ years of team control, maybe 2 prospects for 4+ years or team control.

[Hugh2]

So the Rays would not sign him for $10M/1.

 

Do people actually think these numbers are just pulled out of a hat? Imagine bidding on an object on eBay.

 

Starting bid is $10 then it goes up to $11 then it’s $12. You swoop in and buy it for $13. You have to outbid every single team.

 

The Sox either got him at a much lower AAV by adding the second year, or there were multiple teams offering a two year but had a million less in AAV.

 

Sox won a bid, that’s all there is to understand about the market.

[Hugh2]

It’s funny how the people who complain the most about moves being made complain about the price when it’s made.

 

DeGrome is too easy because he signed with the Rangers but just imagine the madness in here if he signed with the Sox for 190/5. Because if we were to sign him we’d have to outbid Texas.

 

They have the luxury of complaining about Bloom sleeping on him but we all know damn well they’d be all up in arms at the exuberant overpay for him of Boston decided to go that route.

[Bellhorn04]

Do people actually think these numbers are just pulled out of a hat? Imagine bidding on an object on eBay.

 

Starting bid is $10 then it goes up to $11 then it’s $12. You swoop in and buy it for $13. You have to outbid every single team.

 

The Sox either got him at a much lower AAV by adding the second year, or there were multiple teams offering a two year but had a million less in AAV.

 

Sox won a bid, that’s all there is to understand about the market.

 

If the Rays are willing to spend $40 mill on Eflin, that tells you everything about this market.

[Hugh2]

Being $100 million under the cap doesn't put Bloom in a wonderful position, though. Because the only real dead money he lost was Price's $16 mill and JBJ's $12 mill. Most of it comes from the expired contracts of JDM, Bogey, Eovaldi, Wacha and Hill, all of whom were contributors in varying degrees and have to be replaced. Plus guys like Devers and Verdugo will be getting arb raises.

 

And prices for FA talent are exorbitant, as we're seeing.

 

So he really has to hit his targets.

 

Ehhh, that’s such a cup half empty take though. That’s still money you have to spend. Is it really crazy to believe we could get more than we got out of Eovaldi last year for $18 million?

 

 

Or more than we got for JDM for $20?

 

Regardless it will be his team. And big name(s) will be (re)signed. Which was my point.

[notin]

...and as a bridge to Mayer.

 

I'm beginning to see the hopes in Senga as being better than some of these names being mentioned- like Heaney & Eflin. I think I still prefer Taillon from the second tier SP'ers, but it still looks like a trade is the only way we'll get an ace, this winter.

 

I doubt the Sox get any pitcher we might consider an ace. I think if that role needs to be filled, the $145million man with low mileage on his arm these past 3 years is going to have to step up without stubbing his toes…

[Hugh2]

If the Rays are willing to spend $40 mill on Eflin, that tells you everything about this market.

 

Reportedly Eflin wanted to stay home. Who knows, maybe staying on the east coast would have been enticing to DeGrome and he would have stayed here for the same money.

 

The point is the same, 99% of the time you have to match or beat everyone else’s offer to sign said player.

[notin]

I'm okay with trading a top prospect if we get an ace with 3+ years of team control, maybe 2 prospects for 4+ years or team control.

 

No team - not even Oakland and or Pittsburgh - is trading an ace caliber pitcher with 4 years of control left for Marcelo Mayer plus. I just don’t see that happening, especially with free agent costs going as high as they are…

[Bellhorn04]

Ehhh, that’s such a cup half empty take though. That’s still money you have to spend. Is it really crazy to believe we could get more than we got out of Eovaldi last year for $18 million?

 

 

Or more than we got for JDM for $20?

 

Regardless it will be his team. And big name(s) will be (re)signed. Which was my point.

 

Call it half empty if you want, just trying to be realistic. The big loss is Bogey. He was a 6 win player. Fangraphs calculates that 6 WAR costs you about $48 mill on the open market.

 

I'm not trying to cut Bloom down with those comments, I'm just saying he has a very tough job assembling a contender even with that amount of cash.

[Bellhorn04]

Reportedly Eflin wanted to stay home. Who knows, maybe staying on the east coast would have been enticing to DeGrome and he would have stayed here for the same money.

 

The point is the same, 99% of the time you have to match or beat everyone else’s offer to sign said player.

 

My only point was that it's an expensive market. You don't think that's true?

[moonslav59]

Indeed, and the better players always seem to get too big an AAV and or too many years.

 

People complain when we don't overpay.

 

People complain when we do overpay.

 

[Hugh2]

Call it half empty if you want, just trying to be realistic. The big loss is Bogey. He was a 6 win player. Fangraphs calculates that 6 WAR costs you about $48 mill on the open market.

 

I'm not trying to cut Bloom down with those comments, I'm just saying he has a very tough job assembling a contender even with that amount of cash.

 

Let’s say Bogey is resigned for 27 per, great, you still for cash left.

 

Let’s also not discount how much injury hurt last years team. A clean bill of health + a few good moves will equal a much better result. I expect rookies like Casas and Bello to make contributions as well. We can’t discount guys coming up from the farm if we are going to count the guys walking out the door too.

[moonslav59]

No team - not even Oakland and or Pittsburgh - is trading an ace caliber pitcher with 4 years of control left for Marcelo Mayer plus. I just don’t see that happening, especially with free agent costs going as high as they are…

 

Mayer plus some prospects not in the top 8 or 12.

 

Mayer, Wikleman and Jordan for .... 3+ Years

 

Casas or Mayer, Romero or Walter plus Lugo or Murphy for 4+ years

 

[moonslav59]

Call it half empty if you want, just trying to be realistic. The big loss is Bogey. He was a 6 win player. Fangraphs calculates that 6 WAR costs you about $48 mill on the open market.

 

I'm not trying to cut Bloom down with those comments, I'm just saying he has a very tough job assembling a contender even with that amount of cash.

 

Yes, and we can't replace Bogey's 6 with three 2 WAR players.

 

I was hoping this would be Bloom's first year where quality could finally pass quantity due to the $100M budget (including the Kike extension) and only needing 6-8 slots filled vs way more in past winters.

 

I like the Martin signing, but worry if we will be willing to overpay on some top quality or maybe even 2 guys at near what Story got.

[Hugh2]

Mayer plus some prospects not in the top 8 or 12.

 

Mayer, Wikleman and Jordan for .... 3+ Years

 

Casas or Mayer, Romero or Walter plus Lugo or Murphy for 4+ years

 

 

But you’re not going to get a cost controlled ACE for Mayer plus lower lever prospect. You will need 3 high end guys.

 

Mayer/Bleis/Bello. Is the type of package a team will ask for, maybe Mayer/Bleis/Casas

 

For a team that’s rebuilding maybe you can sell them on Duran/Dalbec/Mayer/Bleis/Perales.

 

Look at the Sale trade. We traded three top prospects. TWO of them being Marcelo Mayer level top 25 prospect with Moncada being #1 in all of baseball. Without the #1 prospect in all of baseball I expect the 2-3 guy in the trade to have to be better, that mens you can’t dip below the 8-12 range.

[moonslav59]

Let’s say Bogey is resigned for 27 per, great, you still for cash left.

 

Let’s also not discount how much injury hurt last years team. A clean bill of health + a few good moves will equal a much better result. I expect rookies like Casas and Bello to make contributions as well. We can’t discount guys coming up from the farm if we are going to count the guys walking out the door too.

 

Maybe not a clean bill of health, but I think it is reasonable to count on better help. This winter's plans have to include improving depth, in case of injury, but to me, we only really need to fill or upgrade 5-7 more slots, and after subtracting Kike, Joely and Martin's contracts, we still have about $80M to spend:

 

#1/2 SP

SS

RF

#1/2 RP

SP/RP

 

That's the must 5.

 

Catcher

DH or another Pitcher

 

Is the max 7 or 8.

 

With $80M, we better get some real talent. I'd prefer dividing the $80M by 5 and not 7 or 8. I have faith some of our rising youth can fill in well enough to not need more.

 

We should see time from Bello, Casas, Wong, EValdez, Kelly, German, Crawford, Winkowski, Seabol, Mata, Walter and maybe more (Murphy, Ort, Wallace, Politi, Ward, Hamilton, Rafaela, Downs, Duran RHern...)

 

[notin]

Mayer plus some prospects not in the top 8 or 12.

 

Mayer, Wikleman and Jordan for .... 3+ Years

 

Casas or Mayer, Romero or Walter plus Lugo or Murphy for 4+ years

 

 

The maximum value of that package - if you use Mayer, Romero and Lugo - gets you Framber Valdez on BTV. Of course why any team - let alone one with the reigning ROY, ALCS MVP and WS MVP at the same position. - would want three shortstops does make me think this deal is unlikely…

[notin]

Orioles signed Kyle Gibson.

 

One year deal…

[moonslav59]

But you’re not going to get a cost controlled ACE for Mayer plus lower lever prospect. You will need 3 high end guys.

 

Mayer/Bleis/Bello. Is the type of package a team will ask for, maybe Mayer/Bleis/Casas

 

For a team that’s rebuilding maybe you can sell them on Duran/Dalbec/Mayer/Bleis/Perales.

 

Look at the Sale trade. We traded three top prospects. TWO of them being Marcelo Mayer level top 25 prospect with Moncada being #1 in all of baseball. Without the #1 prospect in all of baseball I expect the 2-3 guy in the trade to have to be better, that mens you can’t dip below the 8-12 range.

 

Okay, maybe not #13 Murphy or #14 Lugo, but something like Casas, Romero & Walter or Mata would still leave us Mayer & Rafaela and a couple decent pitching hopes on the farm.

 

We could also look to do what the Mariners did by trading and extending Castillo. They did not give up 3 like Mayer, Casas, Bello or Bleis.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

No team - not even Oakland and or Pittsburgh - is trading an ace caliber pitcher with 4 years of control left for Marcelo Mayer plus. I just don’t see that happening, especially with free agent costs going as high as they are…

 

History in Boston alone shows us it's usually a guy who a team thinks is washed up or overrated.

 

Tiant was an ace briefly in the 1960s, then released by two clubs the same year before the Sox gave him a shot... and even they almost cut him before he re-emerged.

 

Wakefield was unhittable as a NL rookie, demoted to the minors a few years later, then released before Boston picked him up and he found it again.

 

Pedro was thought to have infinitesimal fortitude or something by Lasorda, dumped by LA, and then luckily turned too expensive for Montreal to keep.

 

Bloom and his ilk aren't wrong trying to use analytics to make their luck -- Wacha was a good one and Richards wasn't -- as long as nobody tries to get too clever and turn an old Hanley into a leftfielder...

[moonslav59]

The maximum value of that package - if you use Mayer, Romero and Lugo - gets you Framber Valdez on BTV. Of course why any team - let alone one with the reigning ROY, ALCS MVP and WS MVP at the same position. - would want three shortstops does make me think this deal is unlikely…

 

BTV has accepted some very reasona ble trades with the Marlins.

 

One type might be to take on Soler or Garcia's contracts to lessen the return package needed.

 

Now, some here might not call Lopez or Rogers an "ace," but I think both rate to be top 30 SP'ers the next 3+ years- maybe even Luzardo could.

 

We might even be able to get our RF'er and leadoff hitter as part of the deal. This was rated an overpay by the Sox on BTV:

 

Mayer & Wikleman

for

Rogers, Cabrera & Berti

 

(I might do it for Lopez and Berti alone, and BTV accepted it)

 

I still like taking on Soler or Garcia as the best way to get an ace. It's like their contracts pay for an ace, and both are cheaper than an ace.

 

 

[Hugh2]

Okay, maybe not #13 Murphy or #14 Lugo, but something like Casas, Romero & Walter or Mata would still leave us Mayer & Rafaela and a couple decent pitching hopes on the farm.

 

We could also look to do what the Mariners did by trading and extending Castillo. They did not give up 3 like Mayer, Casas, Bello or Bleis.

 

Yes it would, but every team with a cost controlled ACE hangs up on you.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

BTV has accepted some very reasona ble trades with the Marlins.

 

One type might be to take on Soler or Garcia's contracts to lessen the return package needed.

 

Now, some here might not call Lopez or Rogers an "ace," but I think both rate to be top 30 SP'ers the next 3+ years- maybe even Luzardo could.

 

We might even be able to get our RF'er and leadoff hitter as part of the deal. This was rated an overpay by the Sox on BTV:

 

Mayer & Wikleman

for

Rogers, Cabrera & Berti

 

(I might do it for Lopez and Berti alone, and BTV accepted it)

 

I still like taking on Soler or Garcia as the best way to get an ace. It's like their contracts pay for an ace, and both are cheaper than an ace.

 

 

 

If you really want to have fun on BTV, go to Colorado and take Bryant's salary. I did that on a deal to get Marquez and there was no way it would validate, even giving the Rox the negative contracts of Sale and Barnes, and taking back their #1 prospect, outfielder Zac Veen (who I highly recommend).

[notin]

Bryan Reynolds has requested a trade from Pittsburgh.

 

And the offers will be rolling in all week. Sox have reportedly been interested in the past, which they should have been..

[notin]

Bryan Reynolds has requested a trade from Pittsburgh.

 

And the offers will be rolling in all week. Sox have reportedly been interested in the past, which they should have been..

 

 

Casas, Rafaela and Seabold. Should the Sox do it? Would the Pirates?

 

I rationalized leaving Mayer out since the Pirates have Oneil Cruz…

[Hugh2]

Casas, Rafaela and Seabold. Should the Sox do it? Would the Pirates?

 

I rationalized leaving Mayer out since the Pirates have Oneil Cruz…

 

If I’m trading Casas it better be for a pitcher. He’s a potential middle of the order bat who appears to be MLB ready. Trading him for an OF just seems like a sideways move. I’m trying to move forward.