2023 Free Agents

[Bellhorn04]

The only issue I have is the “build up the farm” process appears to be geared towards a ranking rather than producing a sustainable pipeline of minor league talent. Bloom has nearly completely avoided higher risk pitching prospects in favor or lower risk positional talent nearly every time, as if the goal was to increase the volume of Top 100 prospects over actually supporting the parent club.

 

Granted, if you have a good amount of good positional prospects, trading for arms gets much easier…

 

And as we very recently discussed, pitchers get injured too damn much.

[notin]

And as we very recently discussed, pitchers get injured too damn much.

 

That’s one reason why pitching prospects are ranked lower by some agencies like Baseball Prospectus, who openly states this. Also because they’re just tougher to evaluate due to higher attrition rates as they progress…

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

What was wrong with Wacha and Hill last year? The pair produced 4.2 bWAR and cost a total of $12mill.

 

 

Nothing, except their brittle muscle tissues kept us afraid of fraying. But dgalehouse was referring to championship staffs, and they weren't part of those in Beantown -- nor were any lottery tickets except Koji and Wake... and Okajima... Bronson Arroyo... ERod?

[notin]

Nothing, except their brittle muscle tissues kept us afraid of fraying. But dgalehouse was referring to championship staffs, and they weren't part of those in Beantown -- nor were any lottery tickets except Koji and Wake... and Okajima... Bronson Arroyo... ERod?

 

Lowe? Timlin? Julian Tavarez, who started 23 games in 2007? Dempster, who was the only SP added to the last place 2012 team?

[Bellhorn04]

Now we're going to need a definition of "lottery tickets".

[jad]

Yeah, it's pretty simple.

 

1) Build up the farm.

2) Avoid having an excess number of potential albatross mega-contracts.

3) Bridge it to the youth movement with short term deals for "reasonably priced" veterans.

 

You are likely right on this, but that doesn't explain the two instances I cited above (Story signing, and trading Vaz).

[moonslav59]

You are likely right on this, but that doesn't explain the two instances I cited above (Story signing, and trading Vaz).

 

If you combine the two trades for McGuire and sending Vaz to HOU, it seems to me to fall right into the plan. Vaz has two months left, we dumped Diekman and his 2nd year for 3 years of MsGuire and 2 prospects.

[Bellhorn04]

You are likely right on this, but that doesn't explain the two instances I cited above (Story signing, and trading Vaz).

 

-The Story signing is a big contract. There's room for a few of them in the Sox budget.

-Trading Vaz yielded a couple of prospects and his replacement, McGuire, is cheaper.

[moonslav59]

-Trading Vaz yielded a couple of prospects and his replacement, McGuire, is cheaper.

 

And maybe better.

 

And going forward, likely better.

[Bellhorn04]

And maybe better.

 

And going forward, likely better.

 

I've given up on trying to evaluate catchers defensively. Have to trust in Bloom and Cora.

[jad]

-The Story signing is a big contract. There's room for a few of them in the Sox budget.

-Trading Vaz yielded a couple of prospects and his replacement, McGuire, is cheaper.

 

But do they have to go to .220 hitters?

[Bellhorn04]

But do they have to go to .220 hitters?

 

See now, some of you Old School guys are getting sneaky with numbers like BA. You cherry-pick. Kyle Schwarber hit .218 last year, but many regretted losing him.

[moonslav59]

I've given up on trying to evaluate catchers defensively. Have to trust in Bloom and Cora.

 

I’m not so sure Vaz and Plawecki will outhit McGuire in 2023 or beyond

[Bellhorn04]

I’m not so sure Vaz and Plawecki will outhit McGuire in 2023 or beyond

 

McGuire has been swinging the bat better than his career numbers suggest. Can he keep it up as a #1 catcher?

 

And we'll be keeping an eye on that CERA!

[moonslav59]

McGuire has been swinging the bat better than his career numbers suggest. Can he keep it up as a #1 catcher?

 

And we'll be keeping an eye on that CERA!

 

The other half of the comp is Vaz. How well will he age out?

 

As far as CERA related skills are compared, it will be hard to know with more new or injury-returning pitchers, this season than pitchers who pitched a lot for our staff, last year. I’m thinking one reason they got him was to improve in that area, but who knows, if they chose correctly?

[Bellhorn04]

The other half of the comp is Vaz. How well will he age out?

 

As far as CERA related skills are compared, it will be hard to know with more new or injury-returning pitchers, this season than pitchers who pitched a lot for our staff, last year. I’m thinking one reason they got him was to improve in that area, but who knows, if they chose correctly?

 

Who knows indeed? It's all part of the mysteries of the game.

[moonslav59]

Who knows indeed? It's all part of the mysteries of the game.

 

The CWS are also paying McGuire’s contract- maybe for 2+ yrs, if you subtract what we owed Diekman.

 

What did Vaz get for a contract?

 

Wow!

[Bellhorn04]

The CWS are also paying McGuire’s contract- maybe for 2+ yrs, if you subtract what we owed Diekman.

 

What did Vaz get for a contract?

 

Wow!

 

Vaz got 3 @ $10 from the Twins.

[Nick]

McGuire is earning $1.125M this year, his 1st arbitration year. I doubt he'll make $10M over the next three years combined, compared to Vaz, who the twinkies will pay $30M over 3 years. I like Vaz so I wish him the best.

 

I also love having a left handed hitting catcher.

 

Can we develop a catcher in 3 years? Oh wait, maybe we have one in Wong.

 

Bottom line is I rather spend $9M elsewhere, say another starter or high end relief pitcher. I'll take THAT plus McGuire over Vaz.

Edited March 12, 2023 by Nick

[notin]

McGuire is earning $1.125M this year, his 1st arbitration year. I doubt he'll make $10M over the next three years compared to Vaz, who the twinkies will pay $30M.

 

I also love having a left handed hitting catcher.

 

Can we develop a catcher in 3 years? Oh wait, maybe we have one in Wong.

 

 

Wong isn’t likely going to be a starter, but Stephen Scott might be…

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

See now, some of you Old School guys are getting sneaky with numbers like BA. You cherry-pick. Kyle Schwarber hit .218 last year, but many regretted losing him.

 

The cherry tree was loaded in Boston last year with lots of low batting averages and plenty of Ks. But none of them led the league in homers.

 

Old School guys can point to JD's .274 BA compared to Schwarber's .218. New Schoolers can say Schwarb's .827 OPS was better than Martinez' .790.

 

Too Cool for School WAR: Kyle 2.2, JD 1.1... does that mean Schwarber was twice as good or just worth one more win? Raise your hand if you think the Phillies would have won just one less game in '22 if they had JD instead of Schwarber...

[jad]

See now, some of you Old School guys are getting sneaky with numbers like BA. You cherry-pick. Kyle Schwarber hit .218 last year, but many regretted losing him.

 

I realize it's Old School, but I prefer .300 hitters to .220 hitters, particularly when .220 hitters can't stay healthy enough to play. Sometimes I think adv. stats were invented to ensure that owners/GMs always had a justification for failure. Like a guy I played h.s. baseball with--after he struck out, he came back saying 'Yeah, but it was a REALLY good level swing.' Or a golf partner who had been trained to think positively, started out with 'I had great loft on that' ' I really kept my head down on that slice' as ball after ball flew its errant course .... by the end, all he could come up with was 'That was a really great club selection.'