2023 Free Agents

[notin]

One trade candidate hardly anyone is mentioning is Houck. Maybe his injury makes him an unlikely target, but including him in a trade would help us avoid giving a top 3 prospect.

 

BTV accepted this (I would not do it):

 

Rafaela, Houck, Romero, Yorke and Walter for Reynolds

 

BTV accepted this one:

 

Rafaela & Walter for Keller (I threw in Duran to sweeten the pot)

 

 

 

I do think it might be a good strategy to go nuts signing free agent relievers and then trade Houck and Schreiber. Trading both for Lopez makes sense for both teams, since Miami’s bullpen rivaled Boston’s for atrocity.

 

Reportedly the Dodgers did find the asking price for Lopez to be ridiculous, which certainly could be an issue. But then maybe Friedman’s definition of ridiculous needs to be questioned. After all, this is a guy who wouldn’t trade Tony Gosselin for Mookie Betts (not substantiated)…

[notin]

I was under the assumption Casas and Rafaela are headlining that trade+++

 

They were in my original proposal, but Casas was the Headliner and Rafaela the Solid Ancillary Piece…

[moonslav59]

I do think it might be a good strategy to go nuts signing free agent relievers and then trade Houck and Schreiber. Trading both for Lopez makes sense for both teams, since Miami’s bullpen rivaled Boston’s for atrocity.

 

I like Houck, a lot, despite the whole no vax fiasco. If he comes back healthy, and we stop jerking him around, I think he has a good chance to be a solid closer, but nothing is certain.

 

That being said, I think his BTV value of 18.5 is pretty accurate.

 

Of all our top BTV numbers, I do think trading Houck and Schreiber might make the most sense, despite our pen being a weak area. If we sign a few more pen arms, it would make up for their loss, but cost more. Since we have budget space, that is doable, as long as we can get a better SP'er for them. Maybe we add a prospect and can get Lopez, Rogers or Luzardo & Berti.

 

Our top BTV numbers:

 

55 Mayer

41 Casas

35 Devers

34 Whitlock

33 Bello

19 Schreiber

19 Houck

15 Rafaela

14 Bleis

8.7 Romero

8.0 Yorke

6.5 Anthony

6.5 Coffey

6.5 McGuire (BTV loving the Sox deadline deals)

5.9 Duran

5.7 Verdugo

5.6 Walter

5.6 Lugo

5.0 Jordan

5.0 Paulino

4.2 Paxton (Hmmmm....)

3.8 Mata

3.6 Murphy

3.1 Hosmer (Another deadline plus)

2.9 Seabols

1.9-2.6: Bonaci, Wink, Hamilton, Taylor, Jimenez, Abreu & Wong

 

Of our top prospects, it seems like Rafaela is the best one with higher value, Yorke might be a sell low option and Lugo due to a bottle neck at SS on the farm. Duran is the obvious over valued one, and if any GM thought he was worth close to his BTV value, he'd be included in my suggested trade.

 

So, what can we get with a combination of this....

19.0 Schreiber

18.5 Houck

8.0 Yorke

5.9 Duran

5.6 Lugo

 

Other possibles:

5.6 Walter

5.0 Jordan

4.2 Paxton

3.6 Murphy

3.2 Hosmer

2.9 Seabold

2.6 Bonaci or Wink

1.1 Downs

 

 

 

[moonslav59]

With deGrom off the boards, does it mean this...

 

Verlander to Mets?

 

Rodon to Yankees?

 

 

 

[notin]

With deGrom off the boards, does it mean this...

 

Verlander to Mets?

 

Rodon to Yankees?

 

 

 

 

1. Yes

 

2. No

[moonslav59]

1. Yes

 

2. No

 

Because the Yanks go broke outbidding the Giants for Judge?

[Hugh2]

If NY loses out on Judge they enter the SS market.

 

The price for Bogaerts goes up.

[Old Red]

I do think it might be a good strategy to go nuts signing free agent relievers and then trade Houck and Schreiber. Trading both for Lopez makes sense for both teams, since Miami’s bullpen rivaled Boston’s for atrocity.

 

Reportedly the Dodgers did find the asking price for Lopez to be ridiculous, which certainly could be an issue. But then maybe Friedman’s definition of ridiculous needs to be questioned. After all, this is a guy who wouldn’t trade Tony Gosselin for Mookie Betts (not substantiated)…

 

Casas, Mayer, and Bello aren’t going anywhere, and signing free agent relievers (who), and then trading Houck, and Schreiber I don’t believe will happen either. So far Martin has replaced Whitlock, so the BP is pretty much where we left it, which is still needing a closer, and more good arms.

[mvp 78]

Would the Red Sox and their fans want Reynolds... or Casas at first and Bello on the mound for the next six years, along with Mayer at short and Rafaela in center for at least half of those?

 

Reynolds was a 3 fWAR guy after the changes to the ball last year. I’m not sure he’s worth what the asking price is, honestly.

[mvp 78]

One trade candidate hardly anyone is mentioning is Houck. Maybe his injury makes him an unlikely target, but including him in a trade would help us avoid giving a top 3 prospect.

 

BTV accepted this (I would not do it):

 

Rafaela, Houck, Romero, Yorke and Walter for Reynolds

 

BTV accepted this one:

 

Rafaela & Walter for Keller (I threw in Duran to sweeten the pot)

 

 

Hell no on that first trade.

[Hugh2]

Teams will posture to get a better deal, but the Sox should not fold either. They lack outfield depth but in total the position side is less problematic. Spending too many resources there is unwise.

[moonslav59]

Casas, Mayer, and Bello aren’t going anywhere, and signing free agent relievers (who), and then trading Houck, and Schreiber I don’t believe will happen either. So far Martin has replaced Whitlock, so the BP is pretty much where we left it, which is still needing a closer, and more good arms.

 

Agree, but one note on the pen: Whitlock and Houck started 13 games, last year, so if Houck stays in the pen, and Whitlock stays a starter, all year, we are just losing half a season of pen work and adding a full season of Martin- a slight gain in numbers but maybe not in quality.

 

Maybe Whitlock pitches more IP and takes some strain off the pen, as well, but yes, I hope we add one more solid arm to the pen. Again, I get a sneaky feeling we will not. I think we will add a SP, SS, RF'er and C and call it a day. We'll save some budget space for the deadline. Just my opinion on what we will do- not what I hope we do.

[moonslav59]

Reynolds was a 3 fWAR guy after the changes to the ball last year. I’m not sure he’s worth what the asking price is, honestly.

 

Yes, and although we need a RF'er, it should not come at that cost in top prospects.

[mvp 78]

Yes, and although we need a RF'er, it should not come at that cost in top prospects.

 

If Bryan Reynolds has an AAV of $8M over the next 3 years (ARB projection for 24 and 25?) and is a 3 fWAR guy and Triston is paid the MLB minimum, if Triston averages anything better than 2 fWAR, it's an overpay by the Sox. If you're trading Reynolds, you better hope he's the 6 fWAR guy, not the 3 fWAR guy based on the price point.

[moonslav59]

If Bryan Reynolds has an AAV of $8M over the next 3 years (ARB projection for 24 and 25?) and is a 3 fWAR guy and Triston is paid the MLB minimum, if Triston averages anything better than 2 fWAR, it's an overpay by the Sox. If you're trading Reynolds, you better hope he's the 6 fWAR guy, not the 3 fWAR guy based on the price point.

 

I'm not even sure PIT takes a 1Bman for Reynolds, but I would not trade any of the top 4 for him. Even Rafaela & Romero plus secondary prospects would make me hesitate or say no.

 

I'm not sure how excited the Marlins are about dumping Soler or Garcia, but I start there as a way to get a solid SP'er for less in return.

[mvp 78]

I'm not even sure PIT takes a 1Bman for Reynolds, but I would not trade any of the top 4 for him. Even Rafaela & Romero plus secondary prospects would make me hesitate or say no.

 

I'm not sure how excited the Marlins are about dumping Soler or Garcia, but I start there as a way to get a solid SP'er for less in return.

 

And I don't think PIT would do Casas for Reynolds. I think Reynolds is just overvalued right now. Maybe they are more likely to do an in-season trade if he starts hitting like 2021 again? My point was just that trading a 3fWAR guy who makes a decent salary already for players that can provide equal or greater value most likely isn't a wise decision. Unless he can be that 6fWAR guy for 3 years, you don't do the deal.

 

If we're supposedly cheering on Bloom for building a farm, I don't want him tearing it down on bad trades before he's fired in 10 months.

[moonslav59]

And I don't think PIT would do Casas for Reynolds. I think Reynolds is just overvalued right now. Maybe they are more likely to do an in-season trade if he starts hitting like 2021 again? My point was just that trading a 3fWAR guy who makes a decent salary already for players that can provide equal or greater value most likely isn't a wise decision. Unless he can be that 6fWAR guy for 3 years, you don't do the deal.

 

If we're supposedly cheering on Bloom for building a farm, I don't want him tearing it down on bad trades before he's fired in 10 months.

 

Agreed, and we need a 1Bman, too, so trading Casas for Reynolds opens a new hole to fill.

 

I don't think the Sox top brass view this winter as the time to trade a top 4 or maybe even top 6 prospect.

[mvp 78]

Agreed, and we need a 1Bman, too, so trading Casas for Reynolds opens a new hole to fill.

 

I don't think the Sox top brass view this winter as the time to trade a top 4 or maybe even top 6 prospect.

 

I'm not really a fan of some of the moves that Bloom has made, but I'd be more scared for the Sox if some of the posters on here were the GM.

[mvp 78]

I'd be a wonderful GM though.

 

I'd just rather sit at home every night and hang out on my couch with my wife than be forced to hang out with dracula John Henry and that muppet Tom Werner (what did he know and when did he know it?). Yuck!

[Bobe2]

I'm not really a fan of some of the moves that Bloom has made, but I'd be more scared for the Sox if some of the posters on here were the GM.

 

Amen

[moonslav59]

I'm not really a fan of some of the moves that Bloom has made, but I'd be more scared for the Sox if some of the posters on here were the GM.

 

I expected better moves by Bloom, too, and his FA signings have not been great. (2022's was his best FA class.) The JBJ trade was the only real bad trade he's made, IMO. The Beni trade is still TBD.

 

His waiver, minor league FA and Rule 5 moves have been plus.

 

His drafts are TBD, too, but look good on paper.

 

This winter should be telling.

[notin]

I'm not really a fan of some of the moves that Bloom has made, but I'd be more scared for the Sox if some of the posters on here were the GM.

 

I’d be awful, as I can be too impulsive and I’m easily swayed…

[notin]

I'd be a wonderful GM though.

 

I'd just rather sit at home every night and hang out on my couch with my wife than be forced to hang out with dracula John Henry and that muppet Tom Werner (what did he know and when did he know it?). Yuck!

 

 

 

If i were allowed to pick the GM from anyone on this board, I wouldn’t pick you. But I would let you fire whoever I picked…

[redsoxrules]

Mets just signed Justin Verlander

[moonslav59]

Mets just signed Justin Verlander

 

$44.4M x 2. WOW!

 

He wanted 3 years, but that AAV is wild! Apparently, there is a vesting option for 2025, but details are unknown, right now.

 

This is one deal I might have thrown the dice on, due to the short term.

[Hugh2]

Would have been a perfect deal for the Sox if they decided to get under the luxury tax this year at the deadline.

[moonslav59]

Would have been a perfect deal for the Sox if they decided to get under the luxury tax this year at the deadline.

 

By trading him?

[Hugh2]

By trading him?

 

No, by getting under the luxury tax at the deadline. You could have gone big with Verlander this off-season and have his money coming off the books before you’d need to reset again.

[a700hitter]

You had to figure that the Mets would go hard after Verlander after losing deGrom. Bloom is at the San Diego Zoo with his family today, because our rotation is solid.

[Old Red]

You had to figure that the Mets would go hard after Verlander after losing deGrom. Bloom is at the San Diego Zoo with his family today, because our rotation is solid.

 

You only make a deal like that if you are ready to go for it all, and the Red Sox are a long ways away from that. Getting out of last place in the Div will be hard enough.