2023 Free Agents

[Hugh2]

Free agents, I would target:

 

Correa/Brantley/Senga/Taillon/Jensen

 

Line up VS RHP/LHP

 

Brantley/Kike

Correa/Correa

Devers/Devers

Casas/Story

Hosmer/Casas

Story/Verdugo

Verdugo/Refsynder

Kike/Dalbec

McGuire/Wong

 

Rotation: Sale. Senga. Taillon. Bello. Whitlock. Pivetta

 

Bullpen: Paxton/Joley/Kelly/Barnes/Schreiber/Houck/Jensen. The above should keep you at around 88 million and allow you to reset the cap and net two picks.

 

I suspect a pitcher or two isn't coming out of camp for one reason or another so I have Arroyo penciled in on the bench for the 26th man.

Edited November 29, 2022 by A Red Sox fan named Hugh

[Hugh2]

That's my realistic wish list.

 

My unrealistic wish list would be for Bogaerts/Judge/Contreras/Verlander/DeGrom

 

Not that Bogaerts is unrealistic. But If I'm being realistically unrealistic then if I can spend big on Contreras/Judge lengthening the lineup elsewhere then I'm signing the homegrown talent to stay in Boston.

[moonslav59]

Santana would be the primary DH, plays a good 1B and is a good platoon option for Casas against tough LHP. For 7M, I think it's a pretty good deal. I can see him being over 1 fWAR next season.

 

He's not bad, but I would not have paid near $7M out of our winter budget on him. I don't see DH/1B as a high enough need area to dedicate around 8% (7/$90) of our winter budget on him.

[moonslav59]

Free agents, I would target:

 

Correa/Brantley/Senga/Taillon/Jensen

 

Line up VS RHP/LHP

 

Brantley/Kike

Correa/Correa

Devers/Devers

Casas/Story

Hosmer/Casas

Story/Verdugo

Verdugo/Refsynder

Kike/Dalbec

McGuire/Wong

 

Rotation: Sale. Senga. Taillon. Bello. Whitlock. Pivetta

 

Bullpen: Paxton/Joley/Kelly/Barnes/Schreiber/Houck/Jensen. The above should keep you at around 88 million and allow you to reset the cap and net two picks.

 

I suspect a pitcher or two isn't coming out of camp for one reason or another so I have Arroyo penciled in on the bench for the 26th man.

 

That's pretty good. I've mentioned all of these guys but Jensen, and I'm not against signing him, but I wonder what he'll get.

 

Note: I do think Brantley's profile indicates a platoon role in LF or DH, but I'm not sure he'd like that or knowingly sign with a team looking to platoon him almost exclusively.

[mvp 78]

Mets used 10 pitchers in the playoffs and not one was named Joely.

 

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/red-sox-take-a-chance-on-joely-rodriguez-with-incentive-laden-deal/

 

FanGraphs did a write up of Joely today.

 

A deal full of incentives and options makes sense for a pitcher like Rodríguez. For one thing, he comes with minor injury concerns after a shoulder problem kept him off the Mets’ postseason roster.

 

Finally, in 2021, Rodríguez got his chance at a full major league season, only to fall victim to an elevated .355 batting average on balls in play. His BABIP was 65 ticks higher than the league average, and it was the sixth-highest figure among relievers with at least 40 IP. He finished the season with a 4.66 ERA, despite his 3.43 FIP. His BABIP came down to earth in 2022, but a new problem sprung up in its place: bequeathed runners. Of the 28 runs attributed to Rodríguez’s line, 14 crossed the plate after he had already left the game. Relievers inherited 35 baserunners from him (17 in scoring position) and allowed 40% of them to score. For context, the average reliever allowed only 32% of inherited runners to score in 2022. Poor Rodríguez was left looking at a ghastly earned run average for the second straight year; his 4.47 ERA was more than a full run higher than his FIP and xFIP.

 

Thus, the stats on the back of Rodríguez’s baseball card over the past two seasons — a 4–7 record, a 4.56 ERA, and two blown saves in three chances — don’t paint him in the best light. The underlying data, however, tell us he’s a much better pitcher than the traditional stats suggest. Since 2021, Rodríguez has a 3.33 FIP, which places him among the top 30% of relievers (min. 50 IP). His 3.44 xFIP positions him among the top 20%. With those numbers in mind, the Red Sox are betting Rodríguez has more success keeping runs off the board in 2023.

 

The left-hander’s biggest asset is his ability to limit home runs. That should come in handy for the Red Sox, whose pitching staff finished last season with the second-highest home run rate in the AL. Rodríguez has allowed only seven long balls over the past two years, good for 0.65 HR/9 in 107 appearances. His secret is simple but effective: he keeps the ball on the ground and prevents hard contact.

 

The article then compares Joely with the overpaid Robert Suarez.

[mvp 78]

Free agents, I would target:

 

Correa/Brantley/Senga/Taillon/Jensen

 

Line up VS RHP/LHP

 

Brantley/Kike

Correa/Correa

Devers/Devers

Casas/Story

Hosmer/Casas

Story/Verdugo

Verdugo/Refsynder

Kike/Dalbec

McGuire/Wong

 

Rotation: Sale. Senga. Taillon. Bello. Whitlock. Pivetta

 

Bullpen: Paxton/Joley/Kelly/Barnes/Schreiber/Houck/Jensen. The above should keep you at around 88 million and allow you to reset the cap and net two picks.

 

I suspect a pitcher or two isn't coming out of camp for one reason or another so I have Arroyo penciled in on the bench for the 26th man.

 

Correa 35

Senga 18

Taillon 18

Jansen 16

Brantley 10

 

I'm coming out to 97ish. Are you expecting bigger savings on Taillon and Senga?

 

I think I'd still nab Kluber over Taillon. Not sure if he'd be cheaper or not. I'd be really surprised if they are able to sign 2 SP's.

[Bellhorn04]

Correa 35

Senga 18

Taillon 18

Jansen 16

Brantley 10

 

I'm coming out to 97ish. Are you expecting bigger savings on Taillon and Senga?

 

I think I'd still nab Kluber over Taillon. Not sure if he'd be cheaper or not. I'd be really surprised if they are able to sign 2 SP's.

 

And then there's the bullpen.

[Hugh2]

Correa 35

Senga 18

Taillon 18

Jansen 16

Brantley 10

 

I'm coming out to 97ish. Are you expecting bigger savings on Taillon and Senga?

 

I think I'd still nab Kluber over Taillon. Not sure if he'd be cheaper or not. I'd be really surprised if they are able to sign 2 SP's.

 

I was going by MLBtraderumors projections, which aren’t that bad btw, they got Jose Abreus AAV of $20 spot on.

 

Senga @15

Correa @32

Taillon @14

Brantley @12

I forget the rest, but it’s plausible

[mvp 78]

I was going by MLBtraderumors projections, which aren’t that bad btw, they got Jose Abreus AAV of $20 spot on.

 

Senga @15

Correa @32

Taillon @14

Brantley @12

I forget the rest, but it’s plausible

 

Plausible? Yes.

[mvp 78]

And then there's the bullpen.

 

Signing two starting pitchers moves Paxton and Whitlock to the pen most likely.

 

Pen:

Jansen

Paxton

Whitlock

Houck

Schreiber

Barnes

Kelly

Joely

[moonslav59]

Signing two starting pitchers moves Paxton and Whitlock to the pen most likely.

 

Pen:

Jansen

Paxton

Whitlock

Houck

Schreiber

Barnes

Kelly

Joely

 

On paper, yes, but we all know how Sale has done off paper.

 

I wonder, if trading Paxton is being discussed.

[mvp 78]

On paper, yes, but we all know how Sale has done off paper.

 

I wonder, if trading Paxton is being discussed.

 

Is he healthy?

[Bellhorn04]

Signing two starting pitchers moves Paxton and Whitlock to the pen most likely.

 

Pen:

Jansen

Paxton

Whitlock

Houck

Schreiber

Barnes

Kelly

Joely

 

They've already gone public that Whitlock is in the 2023 rotation. I think you can pencil that in.

[Bellhorn04]

I wonder, if trading Paxton is being discussed.

 

You might be the only person who would even think of that as a possibility.

[mvp 78]

They've already gone public that Whitlock is in the 2023 rotation. I think you can pencil that in.

 

I think that's why there isn't a realistic chance they sign 2 SP's.

[mvp 78]

You might be the only person who would even think of that as a possibility.

 

BTV Minor Overpay Alert:

 

Paxton

 

Berti

Bleday

Cabrera

Soler

Stallings

 

Well, I think Bloom should do it even if it is an overpay.

[moonslav59]

You might be the only person who would even think of that as a possibility.

 

When you see what sketchy SP'ers have been signing for, I'm not so sure it's reach, and it's not like I was saying we'd get anything back, except maybe salary relief or we pay his salary and get a far away prospect that frees up a roster slot.

[moonslav59]

I think that's why there isn't a realistic chance they sign 2 SP's.

 

Maybe at $5-7M, like last winter?

[Old Red]

You might be the only person who would even think of that as a possibility.

 

Let’s see now. Paxton is for cheap money, and coming off a injury who used to be a decent pitcher the kind of player that Bloom likes, and he would think of trading him? Bloom would not trade a guy like that he would sign a guy like that. Oh wait he did.

[mvp 78]

Maybe at $5-7M, like last winter?

 

They were already kicking the tires on Heaney and he's going to be over 10...

[Bellhorn04]

When you see what sketchy SP'ers have been signing for, I'm not so sure it's reach, and it's not like I was saying we'd get anything back, except maybe salary relief or we pay his salary and get a far away prospect that frees up a roster slot.

 

His health is a question mark I'm pretty sure no one has the answer on yet. If he's healthy the $4 mill could be a great bargain. If he's not he's useless.

 

Pretty sure that Bloom wants to give scenario #1 every chance.

[Hugh2]

Paxton is getting paid like a bench player, if he’s healthy the bar is insanely low for him to be worth that money. I’m fine that James exercises his option.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/red-sox-take-a-chance-on-joely-rodriguez-with-incentive-laden-deal/

 

FanGraphs did a write up of Joely today.

 

A deal full of incentives and options makes sense for a pitcher like Rodríguez. For one thing, he comes with minor injury concerns after a shoulder problem kept him off the Mets’ postseason roster.

 

Finally, in 2021, Rodríguez got his chance at a full major league season, only to fall victim to an elevated .355 batting average on balls in play. His BABIP was 65 ticks higher than the league average, and it was the sixth-highest figure among relievers with at least 40 IP. He finished the season with a 4.66 ERA, despite his 3.43 FIP. His BABIP came down to earth in 2022, but a new problem sprung up in its place: bequeathed runners. Of the 28 runs attributed to Rodríguez’s line, 14 crossed the plate after he had already left the game. Relievers inherited 35 baserunners from him (17 in scoring position) and allowed 40% of them to score. For context, the average reliever allowed only 32% of inherited runners to score in 2022. Poor Rodríguez was left looking at a ghastly earned run average for the second straight year; his 4.47 ERA was more than a full run higher than his FIP and xFIP.

 

Thus, the stats on the back of Rodríguez’s baseball card over the past two seasons — a 4–7 record, a 4.56 ERA, and two blown saves in three chances — don’t paint him in the best light. The underlying data, however, tell us he’s a much better pitcher than the traditional stats suggest. Since 2021, Rodríguez has a 3.33 FIP, which places him among the top 30% of relievers (min. 50 IP). His 3.44 xFIP positions him among the top 20%. With those numbers in mind, the Red Sox are betting Rodríguez has more success keeping runs off the board in 2023.

 

The left-hander’s biggest asset is his ability to limit home runs. That should come in handy for the Red Sox, whose pitching staff finished last season with the second-highest home run rate in the AL. Rodríguez has allowed only seven long balls over the past two years, good for 0.65 HR/9 in 107 appearances. His secret is simple but effective: he keeps the ball on the ground and prevents hard contact.

 

The article then compares Joely with the overpaid Robert Suarez.

 

Thanks for this. Good to know he's a groundball guy -- which maybe means they add a glove-first shortstop. If not, shouldn't they?

[moonslav59]

Paxton is getting paid like a bench player, if he’s healthy the bar is insanely low for him to be worth that money. I’m fine that James exercises his option.

 

I'd rather add 2 SP'ers and make room for 2 solid RP'ers on the 26.

 

Sure, if Paxton goes on the 60, he'll clear a spot on the 40, but it's almost like we'd need to plan for that to add the 3-4 pitchers we need.

[Hugh2]

I'd rather add 2 SP'ers and make room for 2 solid RP'ers on the 26.

 

Sure, if Paxton goes on the 60, he'll clear a spot on the 40, but it's almost like we'd need to plan for that to add the 3-4 pitchers we need.

 

Who says they can’t add more pitchers, including two starters?

[moonslav59]

Who says they can’t add more pitchers, including two starters?

 

Not me. My point was, if we do, and I think we should plus at min 2 solid RP'ers (maybe one if we move Whitlock to the pen), I don't see room for Paxton on the 26, even as a pen arm.

 

13 pitchers

1. Sale

2. _SP___

3. _SP___

4. Whitlock

5. Bello

6. Pivetta

7. _RP__

8. Houck

9. Schreiber

10. Barnes

11. Joely

12. Brasier (I'd DFA him, but I doubt we do. Bloom might not add 4 pitchers just so he can keep Brasier!)

13. Crawford/Winckowski/Taylor/Kelly/Paxton/Mata

[Hugh2]

I'd rather add 2 SP'ers and make room for 2 solid RP'ers on the 26.

 

Sure, if Paxton goes on the 60, he'll clear a spot on the 40, but it's almost like we'd need to plan for that to add the 3-4 pitchers we need.

 

Paxton doesn’t stop you from getting 2 other pitchers. Actually I think you have too.

[moonslav59]

Paxton doesn’t stop you from getting 2 other pitchers. Actually I think you have too.

 

I want 2 SP'ers and 2 RP'ers but will settle on 3 good ones. My point is, if we do that someone like Paxton will have to go, and that includes dumping Brasier, which for some reason, never seems to happen.

 

Again, I am not arguing against the need to 2 SP'ers.

[Hugh2]

I want 2 SP'ers and 2 RP'ers but will settle on 3 good ones. My point is, if we do that someone like Paxton will have to go, and that includes dumping Brasier, which for some reason, never seems to happen.

 

Again, I am not arguing against the need to 2 SP'ers.

 

Who says you still can’t get 4?

[moonslav59]

Who says you still can’t get 4?

 

Again, not me. My point is someone has to go to do it. That's all I'm saying, and Paxton seems like one I might want near the top of the list.

 

We won't trade or DFA Joely. Brasier seems like he's a permanent fixture. You can't put someone on the 60 day until the season starts. A 15 day IL doesn't open up a slot on the 40.

 

It's not like I'm saying we already have 10 good pitchers for a 13 man rotation and can't add 4, but look at my list 1 through 11. I had Brasier 12th. We'd have to trade someone. All 11 are out of options, except Bello, Whitlock, Houck and Schreiber, who might be close to the best 4 we have.

 

My only point is someone will have to go, if we add 4. Maybe Houck or Bello are part of a trade to get an ace.

 

As much as I want to see Kelly, German and Crawford get another shot, and Mata, Walter and maybe someone else get a look at some point, I'm fine with starting them all in AAA, until the inevitable injury or two or three happen, but who goes?