2023 Free Agents

[moonslav59]

I thought JD would still be good for 20 HR, and 80-90 RBI, but his power was gone all year, and his Ave too after a pretty good start.

 

I did, too, but was Bloom supposed to know he'd do worse?

 

It seems like many felt he should have known the younger Dalbec was going to fail.

 

Should he have expected Bogey & Devers to decline some?

 

Only Vaz improved significantly.

 

To me, it just looks like a snake bite year- all around.

[notin]

I thought JD would still be good for 20 HR, and 80-90 RBI, but his power was gone all year, and his Ave too after a pretty good start.

 

JD Martinez has been declining for 3 years now. Even he knows this. If he thought he still had any pop, he’d have declined his player options to get a better or longer deal by now…

[notin]

Injuries played a part, but sub par performances from their better players played a big part too.

 

JD had a subpar year, but this was looking obvious. X had one in some ways but excelled in others. Devers was having a great year until his injury.

 

The biggest flaw this team had (and had last year) is they drifted away from getting players who get in base. They haven’t had a good leadoff hitter for 3 years now, and that’s the guy who gets the most PAs…

[notin]

I did, too, but was Bloom supposed to know he'd do worse?

 

It seems like many felt he should have known the younger Dalbec was going to fail.

 

Should he have expected Bogey & Devers to decline some?

 

Only Vaz improved significantly.

 

To me, it just looks like a snake bite year- all around.

 

 

To me the biggest disappointment was Dalbec. I didn’t expect him to be the monster he was last August and September, but I certainly thought he should have improved somewhat over his slow start to 2021…

[Larry Cook]

The outfield for 2023 looks murky at best.

 

Verdugo declined from 2021 to 2022.

Hernandez declined from 2021 to 2022.

 

Refsynder is JAG!

Duran is an AAAA guy at best

Alamonte is JAG!

 

We still need two guys, preferably with power, including at least one with a cannon and speed to roam the expanse of right field.

[moonslav59]

To me the biggest disappointment was Dalbec. I didn’t expect him to be the monster he was last August and September, but I certainly thought he should have improved somewhat over his slow start to 2021…

 

We all know he's streaky, but he never had a hot streak.

 

There were so many disappointments:

 

JD

Bogey's power & RBIs

Story, even when not injured

Dugo

Kike, even when not injured

JBJ, despite low expectations

Devers, after August

Duran

Nate

Sale

Injuries forced others

 

 

[oldtimer]

We all know he's streaky, but he never had a hot streak.

 

There were so many disappointments:

 

JD

Bogey's power & RBIs

Story, even when not injured

Dugo

Kike, even when not injured

JBJ, despite low expectations

Devers, after August

Duran

Nate

Sale

Injuries forced others

 

 

 

So what do you attribute this to? I find it hard to believe the bulk of our players declined in productivity without some underlying reason(s). Was it?

 

1. Injuries

2. Decline due to age

3. Lack of protection in the lineup

4. Just plain lack of ability

5. Malaise of attitude

6. Poor management leadership

7. Lack of leadership among the players

8. Lack of a sound development process

9. Management flaws in roster decisions

 

If some or all of those apply, what do you think the same management will do that will correct an approach that has put us solidly into last place? It appears that we need a major overhaul and not a small change of direction.

[notin]

So what do you attribute this to? I find it hard to believe the bulk of our players declined in productivity without some underlying reason(s). Was it?

 

1. Injuries

2. Decline due to age

3. Lack of protection in the lineup

4. Just plain lack of ability

5. Malaise of attitude

6. Poor management leadership

7. Lack of leadership among the players

8. Lack of a sound development process

9. Management flaws in roster decisions

 

If some or all of those apply, what do you think the same management will do that will correct an approach that has put us solidly into last place? It appears that we need a major overhaul and not a small change of direction.

 

JD has been declining since 2018. Devers came back off the IL and went into an immediate funk. Bogaerts’ RBIs are more likely due to a lost focus on OBP…

[Bellhorn04]

JD has been declining since 2018. Devers came back off the IL and went into an immediate funk. Bogaerts’ RBIs are more likely due to a lost focus on OBP…

 

Devers and Bogaerts both have higher OPS+ than 2021. I keep pointing this out to moon. He keeps agreeing, and then going back to saying they've declined.

[jacksonianmarch]

We dropped the ball this year. The top free agents are:

 

Looking at guys under 35:

 

Offense

1). Aaron Judge (by far the top player in free agency and we lack power)

2). Tre Turner (the best player in free agency and we have two shortstops)

3). Nolan Arenado (the best 3rd baseman in the league, and we have a good one)

4). Anthony Rizzo (we need a first baseman)

5). Josh Bell (about the same as Hosmer)

Pitching

1). Carlos Rodon

1). Aaron Nola

3). Jacob deGrom (injury prone)

4). Clayton Kershaw (not sure why we didn't show interest last year, he's still solid)

5). Luis Severino

 

Our FA effective guys:

Nathan Eovaldi (need to sign him)

Michael Wacha (he was a surprise)

JD Martinez (we need a DH, his power stats may be down, but he can still hit)

Chris Sale (injured)

Eric Hosmer (injured)

 

Sevy has an option that will assuredly be picked up

[notin]

Two free agent stats that surprised me.

 

OPS+ since 2020

Bogaerts 132

Nimmo 129

And I bet Nimmo signs for roughly half the AAV

 

wOBA since 2020

Betts .377 (14th in MLB)

Brandon Belt .375 (15th in MLB)

 

That really shocked me about Belt, although his injury history (which is very substantial) and his poor 2021 season probably put him in the back of even the DH picture…

[notin]

Sevy has an option that will assuredly be picked up

 

Why?

 

The Yankees are going to pay $15mill to a pitcher with 104 IP in the last 4 seasons after giving him roughly $36million to injure himself while signing the contract.

 

Severino might not be the same guy they gave that contract to. Even for one year, they’d be prudent to decline the option and negotiate. Severino will NOT be in demand after his lack of action and will certainly not be getting a multi-year deal…

[Bellhorn04]

Why?

 

The Yankees are going to pay $15mill to a pitcher with 104 IP in the last 4 seasons after giving him roughly $36million to injure himself while signing the contract.

 

Severino might not be the same guy they gave that contract to. Even for one year, they’d be prudent to decline the option and negotiate. Severino will NOT be in demand after his lack of action and will certainly not be getting a multi-year deal…

 

I will bet that jackson is right on this one.

[jad]

Devers and Bogaerts both have higher OPS+ than 2021. I keep pointing this out to moon. He keeps agreeing, and then going back to saying they've declined.

 

Yeah, I don't know what is fueling the myth that Bogaerts' power has declined, unless the ONLY measure of 'power' is HR.

[notin]

Yeah, I don't know what is fueling the myth that Bogaerts' power has declined, unless the ONLY measure of 'power' is HR.

 

To be fair, his BA is up a bit and his SLG is down a bit.

 

But I’m not so sure that’s the demise some think it is…

[notin]

I will bet that jackson is right on this one.

 

Fair enough. But I will add the caveat that if they do, it won’t work out as expected…

[moonslav59]

Devers and Bogaerts both have higher OPS+ than 2021. I keep pointing this out to moon. He keeps agreeing, and then going back to saying they've declined.

 

No, I have switched to saying Bogey's power and RBIs declined.

 

I should not leave out Devers as an exception for declining returning vets.

 

Vaz and Devers did not decline.

 

Bogey's OPS+ has not declined, and he has brought it up since mid August, too. His defense improved, so overall, he did not technically decline, but the lack of RBIs was significant.

 

So, Vaz, Devers and Bogey did not decline. Houck and Whitlock did about the same. Every other returning player declined, and many were not aging vets. Many got hurt and were returning from injuries for much of the season.

[moonslav59]

Yeah, I don't know what is fueling the myth that Bogaerts' power has declined, unless the ONLY measure of 'power' is HR.

 

How about SLG%?

 

.555 in 2019

.502 in 2020

.493 in 2021

.470 in 2022, which has been rising since many of the statements were made about his declining power. It was at .454 on August 1st and dipped to .436 on AUG 20th. The statements made back in August were backed by more evidence than just lower HR totals. The rise in singles and BA raises the SLG%, too without showing "power."

 

 

 

[jgar658]

I just want to say that if the Red Sox bring back JDM I will commit suicide. He looks like a girl at the plate and his swing speed is very low.

 

Bring back Vaz and keep Reese Jackson McGuire.

 

Use Hosmer as DH and 1st base. Keep Casas. He is not hitting, but seems to have a good eye at the plate. He needs a chance.

 

Houck, Whitlock should start, add Wacha. Keep Brayan and Pivetta in the rotation. Maybe Sales can pitch one more time.

 

Spend dollars on relief pitchers. That is where the Red Sox lose games.

[moonslav59]

To be fair, his BA is up a bit and his SLG is down a bit.

 

But I’m not so sure that’s the demise some think it is…

 

I've been one of the main voices that stated Bogey's decline in power, but I and as far as I know anyone else have ever said the word "demise."

 

His power and RBI numbers dipped, significantly. His SLG has declined steadily since 2019. The RBI dip was sudden, and it appears to not be related to less men on base or in scoring position.

 

PAs and RBI

2022

293 PAs w Men on Base/ 61 RBI (25 BB)

166 PAs w RISP/ 59 RBI (13 BB)

 

2021

288 PAS Men on/ 66 RBI (34 RBI)

161 PAs w RISP/ 55 RBI (16 BB)

 

2019

327 PAs Men on/ 98 RBI (38 BB)

191 PAs RISP/ 80 RBI (29 BB(

 

[notin]

How about SLG%?

 

.555 in 2019

.502 in 2020

.493 in 2021

.470 in 2022, which has been rising since many of the statements were made about his declining power. It was at .454 on August 1st and dipped to .436 on AUG 20th. The statements made back in August were backed by more evidence than just lower HR totals. The rise in singles and BA raises the SLG%, too without showing "power."

 

 

 

 

Bogaerts’ ISO went from .246 to .202 to .198 to .156. That’s a drop in power…

[moonslav59]

I just want to say that if the Red Sox bring back JDM I will commit suicide. He looks like a girl at the plate and his swing speed is very low.

 

Bring back Vaz and keep Reese Jackson McGuire.

 

Use Hosmer as DH and 1st base. Keep Casas. He is not hitting, but seems to have a good eye at the plate. He needs a chance.

 

Houck, Whitlock should start, add Wacha. Keep Brayan and Pivetta in the rotation. Maybe Sales can pitch one more time.

 

Spend dollars on relief pitchers. That is where the Red Sox lose games.

 

I seriously doubt we bring Vaz back.

 

I do not want JD back either. No disrespect. The guy was key to our 2018 ring. Best wishes, elsewhere.

[Nick]

Bogaerts’ ISO went from .246 to .202 to .198 to .156. That’s a drop in power…

 

We have a winner....quit sugar coating it. Love him but unwilling to spend $30M on the guy.

[Nick]

So MassLive has an article about going with the tandem of McGuire and Wong. Arbitration 1 guy and a league minimum guy.

 

So we have on the cheap

 

C Wong/McGuire

1B Casas (league minimum)

SS TBD

DH TBD

LF Pham ($6M)

CF Kike ($10M)

RF Verdugo (arb 2, earning $3.5M this year)

As fill ins , we have Hosmer, Arroyo, Refsnyder, Chang, Dalbec, Cordero.

 

If Xander is not resigned then we should have loads of money to "make the team, way better".

[dgalehouse]

So MassLive has an article about going with the tandem of McGuire and Wong. Arbitration 1 guy and a league minimum guy.

 

So we have on the cheap

 

C Wong/McGuire

1B Casas (league minimum)

SS TBD

DH TBD

LF Pham ($6M)

CF Kike ($10M)

RF Verdugo (arb 2, earning $3.5M this year)

As fill ins , we have Hosmer, Arroyo, Refsnyder, Chang, Dalbec, Cordero.

 

If Xander is not resigned then we should have loads of money to "make the team, way better".

 

If the team is going to improve , it will require spending money. Bringing back most of this year's cast is not going to do it.

[moonslav59]

If the team is going to improve , it will require spending money. Bringing back most of this year's cast is not going to do it.

 

I seriously doubt we fill every slot that looks like improvement is needed. Those positions might include:

 

SP

SP

SP

Closer

RP

2B/SS

RF

1B/DH

C

 

I think the plan will be to choose the positions we have the most faith in the existing players and then fill the others through free agency or trade. Those might include: RF, 2B/SS, SP, RP RP, at minimum, IMO.

[Nick]

I seriously doubt we fill every slot that looks like improvement is needed. Those positions might include:

 

SP

SP

SP

Closer

RP

2B/SS

RF

1B/DH

C

 

I think the plan will be to choose the positions we have the most faith in the existing players and then fill the others through free agency or trade. Those might include: RF, 2B/SS, SP, RP RP, at minimum, IMO.

 

Our starting pitching without outside addition is NOT adequate to improve the team. This has to be the starting point.

 

We need 2 aces to go along with

 

Sale (assuming healthy)

Paxton (assuming healthy)

Pivetta (he's establishing himself as 4/5 starter)

Bello

Wacha (assuming he comes back to the Sox)

[SPLENDIDSPLINTER]

Pivetta is an 'innings eater.' That's what starters are called when there isn't much else good to say about them. He's definitely a #5. If he's higher than that, the SOX starting staff is already in trouble.

[moonslav59]

Our starting pitching without outside addition is NOT adequate to improve the team. This has to be the starting point.

 

We need 2 aces to go along with

 

Sale (assuming healthy)

Paxton (assuming healthy)

Pivetta (he's establishing himself as 4/5 starter)

Bello

Wacha (assuming he comes back to the Sox)

 

If we bring Wacha back, we might be lucky to add one ace.

 

1. Ace

2. Wacha

3. Sale/Paxton

4. Pivetta

5. Bello (Whitlock or Houck)

[Bellhorn04]

Bogaerts’ ISO went from .246 to .202 to .198 to .156. That’s a drop in power…

 

And yet his 2022 OPS+ is exactly 2 points lower than his 2019 OPS+.

 

You have to keep in mind that the baseballs are not juiced now like they were a few years ago, and offense is down period.

 

Some numbers for Bogey for 2018-2022, leaving out the shortened 2020:

 

OPS+

2018 135

2019 139

2021 129

2022 137

 

wRC+

2018 133

2019 141

2021 130

2022 139

 

fWAR

2018 4.4

2019 5.9

2021 4.4

2022 5.9

 

Conclusion: amazingly consistent and not in decline.