A Realistic View at 2023: Part I

[sk7326]

I think they felt Verdugo and Downs had "all star potential."

 

The question is, what other allstars were offered?

 

Hard to say - it was obviously the best players they got offered.

 

The more important question is when did the Red Sox know the situation was without resolution and what to do about it. The real sliding doors moment with Betts was the 2019 trade deadline. That was when the team could have had some substantial leverage, but it would have involved selling during a season they were in some "low but not THAT low" percentage wildcard contention.

[Old Red]

When the GM is forced to trade Betts and Price, not viewing it within that context is way beyond ludicrous.

 

Blame Henry all you want. That's fair. Not blaming Bloom for making the trade is far from spin.

 

If you think he could have gotten better, that's debatable and fair game, but I would disagree other significantly better offers were out there.

 

How many team would even make an offer for the combo of Betts and half-price. The money alone would knock out 22-26 teams from even picking up the phone.

We’ve heard you regurgitate this same response over, and over, and over again. It was a total failure from JH to Bloom no matter how many times you give the same response.

[sk7326]

Also, let's revisit the Soto trade in a few years and see where those guys wind up.

 

This is true about all trades and about life. But evaluating process ex ante is still worth doing - it's the information the teams and fans have when the trade is made. After all, if every one of those players in the Soto trade got hit by a bus, are we going to go "well, time sure ruled on that trade".

[moonslav59]

We’ve heard you regurgitate this same response over, and over, and over again. It was a total failure from JH to Bloom no matter how many times you give the same response.

 

You do realize I'm regurgitating the same thing in response to your and others regurgitating your same points over and over.

[moonslav59]

This is true about all trades and about life. But evaluating process ex ante is still worth doing - it's the information the teams and fans have when the trade is made. After all, if every one of those players in the Soto trade got hit by a bus, are we going to go "well, time sure ruled on that trade".

 

Indeed, and I've been saying the same thing about "botching the Bogey negotiations." Let's see what he does, first.

 

It might also help to know what he would have accepted before blaming Bloom for not offering something that was moot.

[sk7326]

We’ve heard you regurgitate this same response over, and over, and over again. It was a total failure from JH to Bloom no matter how many times you give the same response.

 

It was a failure - but mostly of ownership. As a baseball trade - I have indicated it has not been great, but given the circumstances the process was sound.

 

If there is a complaint about the return at the time of the trade - it was the lack of pitching coming back, considering how horrifyingly bereft of organizational pitching depth there was/is.

[Old Red]

You do realize I'm regurgitating the same thing in response to your and others regurgitating your same points over and over.

 

Everyone knows all the ifs, ands, and buts to the situation, and that’s how everyone has formed their opinions, which aren’t changing.

[sk7326]

Indeed, and I've been saying the same thing about "botching the Bogey negotiations." Let's see what he does, first.

 

It might also help to know what he would have accepted before blaming Bloom for not offering something that was moot.

 

I think botching the Bogaerts negotiations was a different deal - just a different level of player. If ownership decided they'd give Devers or Bogaerts a megacontract but not both, obviously Devers is the priority. The tough part of the Bogaerts thing is at least the public perception (Bloom and reporting around him did not help) that the Sox were caught with their pants down. Since we have to take the Sox' tax concerns as a given - there is no point litigating that - I totally get the ambivalence towards a deal like the one the Padres gave him.

 

The club has had trouble articulating a direction - exactly what are we trying to do here? And the moves on their own have not given much indicator either.

[Bellhorn04]

If there is a complaint about the return at the time of the trade - it was the lack of pitching coming back, considering how horrifyingly bereft of organizational pitching depth there was/is.

 

But they needed an outfielder, too, and Bloom wanted Graterol when he thought he could be a starter.

[Old Red]

Indeed, and I've been saying the same thing about "botching the Bogey negotiations." Let's see what he does, first.

 

It might also help to know what he would have accepted before blaming Bloom for not offering something that was moot.

We don’t have to wait to see if Bloom botched the negotiation or not. What Bogey does from here on out doesn’t have anything to do with Bloom misreading the room in the first place. If Bogey sucks from here on out, which I don’t think he will do doesn’t, or won’t change the actual negotiation process.

[dgalehouse]

When the GM is forced to trade Betts and Price, not viewing it within that context is way beyond ludicrous.

 

Blame Henry all you want. That's fair. Not blaming Bloom for making the trade is far from spin.

 

If you think he could have gotten better, that's debatable and fair game, but I would disagree other significantly better offers were out there.

 

How many team would even make an offer for the combo of Betts and half-price. The money alone would knock out 22-26 teams from even picking up the phone.

 

Okay. I guess it's not fair to blame Knucklehead Smiff for being a dummy. Paul Winchell was pulling the strings.

[moonslav59]

Everyone knows all the ifs, ands, and buts to the situation, and that’s how everyone has formed their opinions, which aren’t changing.

 

Indeed.

[moonslav59]

We don’t have to wait to see if Bloom botched the negotiation or not. What Bogey does from here on out doesn’t have anything to do with Bloom misreading the room in the first place. If Bogey sucks from here on out, which I don’t think he will do doesn’t, or won’t change the actual negotiation process.

 

If he did "misread the room" like you said, but Bogey ends up sucking, it's still a mistake not to have signed him?

 

Man! You are tough!

 

1. We both agree the $30M/1 yr add-on was a slap in the face. That's not the same as being a mistake, though, if Bogey sucks in 2023 or gets hurt. You judged the Downs part of the trade, because he sucked, but somehow what Bogey does or does not do is not important?

 

2. We both wish Bloom had offered Bogey a deal around $160-170M/6, last year or earlier, but we don't know if Bogey would have taken it. You can call it a mistake not to offer it, but that can only be judged as a mistake, if Bogey goes on to play well enough to earn that over the next 6 years. I think he will. I wish he was here at that number. We agree on that part.

 

3. Yes, the negotiation process was what it was and cannot be changed. We have a lot of the facts about it, but not all of them. It does not look good. Again, I agree. The communication between the team and Bogey and the team and fans/media was a cluster. I'm fine with calling it a "mistake" on this level, but if Bogey sucks, I'll be glad he made this "mistake." That is the point I am making. Not sending Fisk's contract to him on time was a mistake. The mistake was made also that Fisk did great after he left- even better than when he was here. Some thought not extending Jake was a mistake. Was it?

[moonslav59]

Okay. I guess it's not fair to blame Knucklehead Smiff for being a dummy. Paul Winchell was pulling the strings.

 

Just saying context is not spin.

 

It sucked losing Betts. It sucked Bloom was forced to trade him and what made it worse, he had to add Pr5ice to the deal to lessen the return. That is context- not spin. Losing Betts sucked. None of this changed that.

[moonslav59]

But they needed an outfielder, too, and Bloom wanted Graterol when he thought he could be a starter.

 

At the time, I wondered why we just didn't take Verdugo and Maeda. Maeda was cheap and had many years of team control. He was a good SP'er, too, but he kinda fell off a cliff after 2-3 years.

[moonslav59]

I think botching the Bogaerts negotiations was a different deal - just a different level of player. If ownership decided they'd give Devers or Bogaerts a megacontract but not both, obviously Devers is the priority. The tough part of the Bogaerts thing is at least the public perception (Bloom and reporting around him did not help) that the Sox were caught with their pants down. Since we have to take the Sox' tax concerns as a given - there is no point litigating that - I totally get the ambivalence towards a deal like the one the Padres gave him.

 

The club has had trouble articulating a direction - exactly what are we trying to do here? And the moves on their own have not given much indicator either.

 

The team articulation of their plan has been atrocious, although broadcasting your specific plans is not something any GM does.

 

I think it came down to Devers vs Bogey, and they made the right choice.

 

The talk of Bogey being their number 1 priority was either a lie of a gross miscalculation of the market, or as Red calls it "misreading the room."

 

I wish we could have kept 2 of the big 3. Betts was my #2, Devers #2 and Bogey #3.

 

Signing Story and Yoshida at numbers that look like enough to have kept Betts or Bogey does look frightful. The Betts comp is hard to make, because we had massive budget cuts in 2020 and 2021, so we'd have had to get rid of others, but the Story (plus maybe another player) vs Bogey comp can be made. In terms of judging which was the best one to sign, the jury is out, although the Story signing is looking like the Sale one, out of the gate.

 

Time will tell.

 

I think Bogey will do well. I think he'll easily earn $170M/6 or even $200M/8 but not what SD paid him.

 

I don't know, if Story or Yoshida will earn their keep. Most big signings don't work out for the team. We'll see.

[Bellhorn04]

Okay. I guess it's not fair to blame Knucklehead Smiff for being a dummy. Paul Winchell was pulling the strings.

 

If you're going to blame Bloom for trading Betts, you should probably be blaming Dombrowski more for not signing Betts to an extension.

 

You'd be wrong in either case, of course.

[Old Red]

If you're going to blame Bloom for trading Betts, you should probably be blaming Dombrowski more for not signing Betts to an extension.

 

You'd be wrong in either case, of course.

 

Either way it did not get done, and it was bad all the way around.

[moonslav59]

If you're going to blame Bloom for trading Betts, you should probably be blaming Dombrowski more for not signing Betts to an extension.

 

You'd be wrong in either case, of course.

 

Asking Dale to blame DD is like asking him to blaspheme.

[moonslav59]

Either way it did not get done, and it was bad all the way around.

 

At least with Betts, it appears they tried hard and made a fair offer. It's reported he almost accepted it.

 

Agreed, though. He should have been a lifer.

 

I don't think Bloom had the option to extend him, unless he traded Sale, JD and or Bogey & Nate.

 

I think DD had a choice on who to extend, and the evidence supports that he tried. I don't think it's right to blame him, because we don't really know how high he'd have to have gone in a counter-offer to get him to stay, but if I had to blame one GM, I'd say it can't be Bloom's fault.

 

I don't even like to throw blame at JH, because he has spent a lot of money and helped end the curse and then some, but if blame has to be assigned, he's the guy to pin it on for this one.

[mvp 78]

This is true about all trades and about life. But evaluating process ex ante is still worth doing - it's the information the teams and fans have when the trade is made. After all, if every one of those players in the Soto trade got hit by a bus, are we going to go "well, time sure ruled on that trade".

 

When I read a lot of the evaluations on the Mookie trade the grades basically said "the return is fine if the Sox weren't planning on competing, but this is the Boston Red Sox." If it was the 2022 Cubs or Nationals making the same trade, they probably get a higher grade.

 

Regardless, I agree that return just doesn't feel like it was enough NO MATTER WHAT. I said it at the time too. I wanted them to sign Mookie for whatever it took. It should have been Mookie and Devers and let Xander walk.

[Bellhorn04]

At least with Betts, it appears they tried hard and made a fair offer. It's reported he almost accepted it.

 

Agreed, though. He should have been a lifer.

 

I don't think Bloom had the option to extend him, unless he traded Sale, JD and or Bogey & Nate.

 

I think DD had a choice on who to extend, and the evidence supports that he tried. I don't think it's right to blame him, because we don't really know how high he'd have to have gone in a counter-offer to get him to stay, but if I had to blame one GM, I'd say it can't be Bloom's fault.

 

I don't even like to throw blame at JH, because he has spent a lot of money and helped end the curse and then some, but if blame has to be assigned, he's the guy to pin it on for this one.

 

And it's probably worth noting that even on this board, there were some who didn't want to give Betts a mega-contract, or who weren't bothered about him leaving.

[mvp 78]

And it's probably worth noting that even on this board, there were some who didn't want to give Betts a mega-contract, or who weren't bothered about him leaving.

 

Monsters...

[Bellhorn04]

When I read a lot of the evaluations on the Mookie trade the grades basically said "the return is fine if the Sox weren't planning on competing, but this is the Boston Red Sox." If it was the 2022 Cubs or Nationals making the same trade, they probably get a higher grade.

 

But did any of those graders say exactly what they think Bloom should have gotten?

 

Betts is a great player, but it was one year at a cost of $27 million. We got Verdugo, 2 prospects and $72 million of salary relief.

[moonslav59]

Remember, Betts made $27M in 2020 and Price was set to be paid $16M to play for the Dodgers. That's $43M cut from the 2019 budget, beyond losing:

$20.6M Porcello

$6.3M Pearce

Not to mention paying Sale $25.7M, Pedey $13.8M and ERod $8.3Mto sit out 2020.

 

If the budget stayed the same, and there is no reason to think it wouldn't, how to we cut $43M from the 2020 budget?

 

That winter we spent $M

$11M JBJ arb avoid

$6M Perez

$4.3M Pillar

$3.5M Workman arb

$3.4M Beni arb

$3.1M Barnes arb

$2.9M Peraza

$2.5M Moreland arb

1.6 Hembree arb

 

I don't see it.

 

We'd have to have traded someone else:

 

All of Price $31M

$26.5M Sale

$22M JD

$20M Bogey

$17M Nate

 

Mix and match to meet $43M, even in hindsight.

[dgalehouse]

In the aftermath of the Betts trade , the Dodgers immediately won a championship while the Sox plummeted to the bottom , looking up at the Orioles. That outweighs all this other stuff. It was a terrible deal for the Sox and their fans , no matter how you look at it or who you choose to blame.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

But did any of those graders say exactly what they think Bloom should have gotten?

 

Betts is a great player, but it was one year at a cost of $27 million. We got Verdugo, 2 prospects and $72 million of salary relief.

 

Pitching. I said it that whole winter: Gonsolin, Gray or May.

 

But it's plausible Bloom and old mentor Friedman had a secret pact:

 

"Andy, baby, love ya -- but this is my first big deal, and my boss says you have to take Price."

"Ok, Chaim... but no arms for you!"

[mvp 78]

Pitching. I said it that whole winter: Gonsolin, Gray or May.

 

But it's plausible Bloom and old mentor Friedman had a secret pact:

 

"Andy, baby, love ya -- but this is my first big deal, and my boss says you have to take Price."

"Ok, Chaim... but no arms for you!"

 

So if Bloom's trade was Gray, May, Downs and Wong, most of the pundits would have lauded the trade. As of today, is that still a good enough return? They would have still been terrible in 2020 and 2022 and would have been worse off in 2021. All you have out of the deal is an injured Dustin May and another starter who is worse than Pivetta.

[notin]

Pitching. I said it that whole winter: Gonsolin, Gray or May.

 

But it's plausible Bloom and old mentor Friedman had a secret pact:

 

"Andy, baby, love ya -- but this is my first big deal, and my boss says you have to take Price."

"Ok, Chaim... but no arms for you!"

 

I would strongly suspect Bloom aired about arms. But LA was reluctant to deal them for one year of Betts plus Price at cost. Isn’t that why Minnesota got involved in the first place?

[notin]

So if Bloom's trade was Gray, May, Downs and Wong, most of the pundits would have lauded the trade. As of today, is that still a good enough return? They would have still been terrible in 2020 and 2022 and would have been worse off in 2021. All you have out of the deal is an injured Dustin May and another starter who is worse than Pivetta.

 

The pundits at the time expected the Sox to land May, Lux and Verdugo. That’s insanely unrealistic for one year of any player…