A Realistic View at 2023: Part I

[Nick]

He’s on thin ice. If he finishes last again, he will not get to ‘24.

 

You maybe right and it may be hard to defend him.

[notin]

He’s on thin ice. If he finishes last again, he will not get to ‘24.

 

I’m not so sure he is.

 

Last time Henry interrupted a GM trying to build from within, he’s still paying the bills created by the replacement. Fans may not have patience for an organization being built, but that doesn’t make it the wrong way.

 

Even you called for Bloom to be replaced by former Houston GM and Bloom clone James Click. But Houston didn’t win because of Click; there recent success is because they had those down years and built an incredibly solid farm system that keeps handing them help after help. From 2009 to 2014, they finished 4th or lower in their division (which included a few years in a then six team NL Central ), and since then have only missed the post season once. And don’t appear easy to show down just yet.

 

That doesn’t mean the Sox need a full 6 seasons to build anything. But we also don’t know how long Henry is willing to let it go. Especially if it appears to be working…

[Bobe2]

He’s on thin ice. If he finishes last again, he will not get to ‘24.

https://985thesportshub.com/listicle/chaim-bloom-red-sox-purge-core-matt-mccarthy/?itm_source=parsely-api

What's in store for us?

[moonslav59]

“At that time three years ago, we were faced with a similar choice with one year from free agency with a superstar player. And we didn’t sign him,” Bloom said at Winter Weekend. “And I want to explain why, because it relates to where we’re going. We didn’t sign him because when you make those bets, they’re big bets and (more boos) those bets — hang with me here. Those bets, you all know it and are smart — they are much better up front than on the back end. We know that but if you want to make that type of bet, you better be ready to back it up and surround that with a whole lot of talent, a whole lot of young talent, or you’re not going to win. You see it all the time in this game. I don’t think anybody would disagree where the organization was, we just weren’t ready to back up that bet.”

 

When Bloom is directly quoted, it matters. It makes no difference what we think, what he thinks matters more.

 

I agree with what he just said at the Winter Carnival.

 

We made a bit this winter, Devers or Xander. I think he made the right call.

 

We're still buying time. I would think playoff expectations become realistic next year. Everything would have to go right for this year's team to do it. Principally, everyone must stay healthy and need a stellar year out of guys like Sale, Yoshida, Bello and Casas plus the bullpen.

 

Sums it up very nicely. At the risk of sounding like a broken record, our farm was giving us just Houck over a 5 year period between Devers in 2017 and Bello/Casas in 2022. We were, sadly, not ready to "provide the support" needed around Betts. The "context" wasn't there.

 

With Devers, the situation seems better suited for providing support around him.

 

We'll see how it works out.

[moonslav59]

I’m not so sure he is.

 

Last time Henry interrupted a GM trying to build from within, he’s still paying the bills created by the replacement. Fans may not have patience for an organization being built, but that doesn’t make it the wrong way.

 

Even you called for Bloom to be replaced by former Houston GM and Bloom clone James Click. But Houston didn’t win because of Click; there recent success is because they had those down years and built an incredibly solid farm system that keeps handing them help after help. From 2009 to 2014, they finished 4th or lower in their division (which included a few years in a then six team NL Central ), and since then have only missed the post season once. And don’t appear easy to show down just yet.

 

That doesn’t mean the Sox need a full 6 seasons to build anything. But we also don’t know how long Henry is willing to let it go. Especially if it appears to be working…

 

We didn't go all in, this winter, so I tend to agree: Bloom my not NEED to win to keep his job another year or two, but I do think they want to see marked improvements and a brighter future after this year is over. If we have a ton of injuries, and our vets underperform, again, that might not all be blamed on Bloom. Yes, he's the one who decided to signing so many injury prone players (not named Sale,)[ but when you are not allowed to go large and long on the best of the best, it's a given you are stuck with less than the best or high risk players.

 

I'm not so sure a Yoshida flop would be pinned all on Bloom. It seems the scouts have wanted this guy for a very long time.

 

I do think there is a chance Bloom is gone, if we look bad in 2023, and maybe he will deserve to be axed, but it's not a sure bet.

[Bellhorn04]

I’m not so sure he is.

 

Last time Henry interrupted a GM trying to build from within, he’s still paying the bills created by the replacement.

 

Ben created some large bills himself.

[moonslav59]

https://985thesportshub.com/listicle/chaim-bloom-red-sox-purge-core-matt-mccarthy/?itm_source=parsely-api

What's in store for us?

 

The article does mention it was Bloom that extended Barnes, but nothing, other than he was the union rep, that even hints at he being disgruntled- like Bogey and Vaz.

 

GMs do make moves like this, all the time. It does not surprise me.

 

This is basically Bloom's team, now. Only Sale, Devers and surprisingly Brasier remain from the 40 man roster he inherited. Others were in the system, when he took over, but only those 3 were on the 40 man roster after the 2019 season.

 

Those in the system, added afterwards (current rank on 4 man roster seniority):

4. Dalbec

8. Houck

9. Mata

13. Duran

14. Crawford

16. Bello

24. Casas

27. Rafaela

28. Walter

29. Murphy

 

13 out of 40 is less than a third.

 

Non 40 Man Roster Prospects on the farm from prior to Bloom:

10. Perales

11. Paulino

12. Wikelman

14. Lugo

16. Bonaci

 

Bloom's stamp is clear and present.

 

 

 

[moonslav59]

Ben created some large bills himself.

 

That he did, and to me, that was why he was replaced before "the plan" had a chance to reach fruition.

 

Even the moderate signings in 2013, that led to a ring year, fell off a cliff, afterwards, then Pablito and HRam.

 

The Pedey and AGon extensions had interesting results, too.

[notin]

Ben created some large bills himself.

 

True as well.

 

And overall, the free agents Henry has shelled maybe a billion or so for over the years haven’t really done much…

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Sums it up very nicely. At the risk of sounding like a broken record, our farm was giving us just Houck over a 5 year period between Devers in 2017 and Bello/Casas in 2022. We were, sadly, not ready to "provide the support" needed around Betts. The "context" wasn't there.

 

With Devers, the situation seems better suited for providing support around him.

 

We'll see how it works out.

 

The flaw in Bloom's argument against making his big Betts three years ago is that Mookie is still a great freaking ballplayer today, and better all-around than Devers. Will Mookie be in five years? Maybe not, but according to Chaim's argument again -- that longterm guys are "much better up front than on the back end" -- Raffy might not be so good, by then, either.

[notin]

The flaw in Bloom's argument against making his big Betts three years ago is that Mookie is still a great freaking ballplayer today, and better all-around than Devers. Will Mookie be in five years? Maybe not, but according to Chaim's argument again -- that longterm guys are "much better up front than on the back end" -- Raffy might not be so good, by then, either.

 

The flaw in this argument is that the Sox couldn’t afford Betts after someone closed up the budget by extending Sale and Bogaerts and doling out the largest contract in team history to a pitcher who gave them 588 IP and 9.7 bWAR. Neither is a horrible number for the 4 years he was on the team, but the contract itself was a massive albatross from Day One…

[dgalehouse]

Bloom's statement is a insult to the fan's intelligence. He didn't sign Mookie because he didn't have the players to back him up. But he signed Devers because now he does have players to back him up. What utter nonsense. Mookie should still be here today. I am glad that he signed Devers , but let's be honest , Raffy is not the player that Mookie is. And as far as his building the farm , most of the team's best prospects were acquired pre Bloom. And we all know that players do decline as they age . No need to tell us that. I don't think too many fans are falling for this crap.

[Old Red]

Bloom's statement is an insult to the fan's intelligence. He didn't sign Mookie because he didn't have the players to back him up. But he signed Devers because now he does have players to back him up. What utter nonsense. Mookie should still be here today. I am glad that he signed Devers , but let's be honest , Raffy is not the player that Mookie is. And as far as his building the farm , most of the team's best prospects were acquired pre Bloom. And we all know that players do decline as they age . No need to tell us that. I don't think too many fans are falling for this crap.

 

Agree, and Bloom trying to shout down all his great admiring boo bird fans who paid money to do so made him look even worse.

[notin]

Bloom's statement is a insult to the fan's intelligence. He didn't sign Mookie because he didn't have the players to back him up. But he signed Devers because now he does have players to back him up. What utter nonsense. Mookie should still be here today. I am glad that he signed Devers , but let's be honest , Raffy is not the player that Mookie is. And as far as his building the farm , most of the team's best prospects were acquired pre Bloom. And we all know that players do decline as they age . No need to tell us that. I don't think too many fans are falling for this crap.

 

 

Actually now that Casas and Bello are all but assured MLB jobs, Bloom did bring in 5 of the team’s top 8 prospects. None of his have graduated yet, but that’s far from surprising in 3 years…

[Bobe2]

The article does mention it was Bloom that extended Barnes, but nothing, other than he was the union rep, that even hints at he being disgruntled- like Bogey and Vaz.

 

GMs do make moves like this, all the time. It does not surprise me.

 

This is basically Bloom's team, now. Only Sale, Devers and surprisingly Brasier remain from the 40 man roster he inherited. Others were in the system, when he took over, but only those 3 were on the 40 man roster after the 2019 season.

 

Those in the system, added afterwards (current rank on 4 man roster seniority):

4. Dalbec

8. Houck

9. Mata

13. Duran

14. Crawford

16. Bello

24. Casas

27. Rafaela

28. Walter

29. Murphy

 

13 out of 40 is less than a third.

 

Non 40 Man Roster Prospects on the farm from prior to Bloom:

10. Perales

11. Paulino

12. Wikelman

14. Lugo

16. Bonaci

 

Bloom's stamp is clear and present.

 

 

 

your right this is definitely Blooms team now, no one else to blame.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

The flaw in this argument is that the Sox couldn’t afford Betts after someone closed up the budget by extending Sale and Bogaerts and doling out the largest contract in team history to a pitcher who gave them 588 IP and 9.7 bWAR. Neither is a horrible number for the 4 years he was on the team, but the contract itself was a massive albatross from Day One…

 

This will always be the grassy knoll in the Mookie character assassination conspiracy. Some day there will be an expose on History Channel where a former Red Sox intern in a disguised voice and shadowed face swears he overheard Henry issuing his first mandate to Bloom: "get rid of Price."

 

It may be the one thing Bloom can't admit to, but he did tell the Winter Weekend boobirds they were smart -- which just might mean he knows we all know there is no way any club would even touch half the contract of a miserable ballplayer who only plays every fifth day and is just ok maybe half that time for a $32 million dollar salary... unless Betts was attached to the deal.

[Bobe2]

The flaw in Bloom's argument against making his big Betts three years ago is that Mookie is still a great freaking ballplayer today, and better all-around than Devers. Will Mookie be in five years? Maybe not, but according to Chaim's argument again -- that longterm guys are "much better up front than on the back end" -- Raffy might not be so good, by then, either.

 

If Devers doesn’t get some protection batting behind him, he will suffer now, nobody will pitch to him, he has a big plate anyway so pitchers will make it even bigger

[moonslav59]

The flaw in Bloom's argument against making his big Betts three years ago is that Mookie is still a great freaking ballplayer today, and better all-around than Devers. Will Mookie be in five years? Maybe not, but according to Chaim's argument again -- that longterm guys are "much better up front than on the back end" -- Raffy might not be so good, by then, either.

 

I agree, and I was the guy saying we should give Betts a 14 year deal, but to me, the Betts choice was really JH's. I'm not saying Bloom tried to talk JH into signing Betts, but the idea looked like 5 year plan was needed, and Betts would be nearing post prime by then.

 

Now, the 5 year plan is 1-2 years away from realization, so the Devers case fits better.

[moonslav59]

Actually now that Casas and Bello are all but assured MLB jobs, Bloom did bring in 5 of the team’s top 8 prospects. None of his have graduated yet, but that’s far from surprising in 3 years…

 

Impatience is not a virtue.

[moonslav59]

If Devers doesn’t get some protection batting behind him, he will suffer now, nobody will pitch to him, he has a big plate anyway so pitchers will make it even bigger

 

The 5 year plan is almost up. Let's see how it plays out.

[Bellhorn04]

This will always be the grassy knoll in the Mookie character assassination conspiracy. Some day there will be an expose on History Channel where a former Red Sox intern in a disguised voice and shadowed face swears he overheard Henry issuing his first mandate to Bloom: "get rid of Price."

 

It may be the one thing Bloom can't admit to, but he did tell the Winter Weekend boobirds they were smart -- which just might mean he knows we all know there is no way any club would even touch half the contract of a miserable ballplayer who only plays every fifth day and is just ok maybe half that time for a $32 million dollar salary... unless Betts was attached to the deal.

 

Sure, that's pretty obvious, but what's the big deal about it?

 

To get under the tax threshold, Bloom had to trade Mookie and someone else making 10-15 million or whatever. It was convenient that he could get both things done in one deal.

[Bellhorn04]

I agree, and I was the guy saying we should give Betts a 14 year deal, but to me, the Betts choice was really JH's. I'm not saying Bloom tried to talk JH into signing Betts, but the idea looked like 5 year plan was needed, and Betts would be nearing post prime by then.

 

Yep, and the age difference Betts and Devers is 4 full years. That's a lot of years in relation to an MLB career.

[Bellhorn04]

True as well.

 

And overall, the free agents Henry has shelled maybe a billion or so for over the years haven’t really done much…

 

Most have been busts, but if you jump in the way-back machine and undo all those signings, we would have fewer rings-maybe none.

[moonslav59]

Yep, and the age difference Betts and Devers is 4 full years. That's a lot of years in relation to an MLB career.

 

If anything, these last 3 years proved just how little support Betts would have had around him through his prime years. He turns 31 this October.

 

Imagine the roster we had the last 3 years, and then subtract all the players we signed to keep the budget equal to what Betts and 1/2 Price would have cost. Couple that with a farm that provided Houck, Dalbec, Duran and names I don't want to mention, and the picture looks pretty clear, to me.,

 

Now, with some of the deadwood contracts off the books, a promising farm already contributing our projected starting 1B (Casas), 2 SPs (Bello & Whitlock) and a key RP (Houck), and the addition of several more meaningful FAs (Yoshida, Kluber, Turner, Jansen, Martin & Duvall) than in any of the last 3 seasons, and maybe all 3 combined, yes, I'd say conditions are much more favorable for adding support players around a homegrown star.

[notin]

Most have been busts, but if you jump in the way-back machine and undo all those signings, we would have fewer rings-maybe none.

 

Maybe. Although a lot of that rests entirely on your definition of a bust and throw in a little supposition…

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Sure, that's pretty obvious, but what's the big deal about it?

 

To get under the tax threshold, Bloom had to trade Mookie and someone else making 10-15 million or whatever. It was convenient that he could get both things done in one deal.

 

Instead, the Red Sox were over the tax threshold last year and still didn't have Mookie. If you're a billionaire and going to be over, might as well blast into another orbit, like Cohen.

 

I think both Mookie and Raffy will be really good players for the next five years. Let's see which org -- LA or Boston -- does best in surrounding their big bets with talent.

[Bellhorn04]

In the midst of all our griping this offseason, the story about the Red Sox negotiations with Devers at his home in the Dominican was actually pretty cool. Cora was there and when Devers first saw the offer his eyes got really big, according to Cora.

[moonslav59]

Sure, that's pretty obvious, but what's the big deal about it?

 

To get under the tax threshold, Bloom had to trade Mookie and someone else making 10-15 million or whatever. It was convenient that he could get both things done in one deal.

 

Unless, somehow, someway, our GM could have and would have convinced JH to not slash the budget from 2019 to 2020, what other choices did we have? Trading Bogey & Sale?

 

We only spent something like $15-20M in the winter of 2019-2020 after not replacing Porcello and a few other departing players and trading away the salaries or Betts and 1/2 Price. I think the total budget slash was close to $60M.

 

To me, it's revisionist history to think we could have build a supporting team around Betts on the budgets provided Bloom in 2020, 2021 and 2022.

 

It seems like trading Betts & Price was a given. We'd have wasted 3+ years of Betts and likely not been bad enough to get Mayer in the draft.

[Bellhorn04]

Maybe. Although a lot of that rests entirely on your definition of a bust and throw in a little supposition…

 

Supposition is what we do here. I'm talking about Foulke, Dice-K, Drew, Lackey, Victorino, Price, JDM and others, and that's not even counting Mr. Duquette's prize free agent signing.

 

That's pretty reasonable supposition.

[notin]

In the midst of all our griping this offseason, the story about the Red Sox negotiations with Devers at his home in the Dominican was actually pretty cool. Cora was there and when Devers first saw the offer his eyes got really big, according to Cora.

 

… at which point his agent blindfolded Devers and decided the conversation could proceed slowly from there…