A Realistic View at 2023: Part I

[Old Red]

Yes, that's always your point.

 

And what’s wrong with that?

[moonslav59]

This is a fair assessment. The '22 regulars were missing Schwarber -- a big factor in the '21 stretch run -- and Renfroe -- a big factor in the '21 regular sked... but the great athleticism of Story was going to replace them (that's what posters kept telling me).

 

As far as the rotations go, I had no doubt that Hill and Wacha would spend time on the IL, but at least they had pitched in '21. Can't really say that for Sale or Paxton. I consider Kluber as the replacement for Eovaldi, because again, at least Kluber pitched all last year -- which makes him more of a sure thing this winter than his hurtwhile colleagues.

 

The regressions for just about every vet doomed the 2022 team and injuries forced us into 3rd and 4th depth chart replacements.

 

OPS 2021>2022

 

Our top 4 PAs players both seasons:

.890>.879 Devers

.867>.790 JD

.863>.833 Bogey

.777>.732 Dugo

 

Others:

.792>.652 Dalbec

.786>.629 Kike

.769>.739 Arroyo

.737>.574 Plawecki

 

Only pluses:

.659>.759 Vaz

.578>.645 Duran

.567 Mawrin> .672 Pham

 

Ouch:

.816 Renfroe>.578 JBJ

.957 Schwarber> .737 Story

 

[moonslav59]

And what’s wrong with that?

 

I didn't say anything was wrong with it, especially if you think Bloom is always wrong. You say what you believe. There is nothing wrong with that.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

The regressions for just about every vet doomed the 2022 team and injuries forced us into 3rd and 4th depth chart replacements.

 

OPS 2021>2022

 

Our top 4 PAs players both seasons:

.890>.879 Devers

.867>.790 JD

.863>.833 Bogey

.777>.732 Dugo

 

Others:

.792>.652 Dalbec

.786>.629 Kike

.769>.739 Arroyo

.737>.574 Plawecki

 

Only pluses:

.659>.759 Vaz

.578>.645 Duran

.567 Mawrin> .672 Pham

 

Ouch:

.816 Renfroe>.578 JBJ

.957 Schwarber> .737 Story

 

 

That's a pretty grim chart. Wonder how much of the regression was due to mushballs. On the other hand, maybe that's what contributed to the modicum of success by some starting pitchers -- and why the front office had no issues letting three of them depart via free agency. Plus, they were bad enough to finish fifth.

 

But after the '21 playoffs -- even with the curious or frustrating offseason moves and non-moves -- there were more expectations at this time a year ago for the '22 Sox, compared to the '23 Sox.

[moonslav59]

The point being Plawecki was just a backup to a #1 C. I know you didn’t think Vaz was good enough, and that’s fine, but now the Red Sox have no #1 C just a couple of backups.

 

Again, you misrepresent my view.

 

I was happy with Vaz. I never wanted him demoted to back-up or replaced via trade, until I wanted a fire sale of all expiring contracts, last summer.

 

Just like Bogey, I liked both and wanted them on the Sox. I had an issue with their defense, and with Vaz's handling of the staff. I never said Vaz was not "good enough" or even implied it.

 

I'm not sure McGuire will be an upgrade. I'm hopeful his defense and pitcher handling will outweigh the expected loss on offense, but Vaz was inconsistent from year to year on offense, so it's hard to know what the offensive bar is for McGuire.

[mvp 78]

An awfully lot of things would have to go right for this not to be a mediocre team. I don’t think Wong is as highly thought of as he is on here.

 

They were a medicore team last season. 14th pick in the draft? Pretty mediocre.

[moonslav59]

That's a pretty grim chart. Wonder how much of the regression was due to mushballs. On the other hand, maybe that's what contributed to the modicum of success by some starting pitchers -- and why the front office had no issues letting three of them depart via free agency. Plus, they were bad enough to finish fifth.

 

But after the '21 playoffs -- even with the curious or frustrating offseason moves and non-moves -- there were more expectations at this time a year ago for the '22 Sox, compared to the '23 Sox.

 

Here is another look that should factor in mushballs: OPS+

Listed in order of leading in PAs in 2021

Red+ Improved

 

'21 Player '22

134 Devers 141

128 JD M 117

107 Dugo 102

129 Bogey 131

 

108 Kike 75

114 Renfroe> 60 JBJ

77 Vaz 109

107 Dalbec 80

53 Marwin> 102 Story

103 Arroyo 103

98 Plawecki 61

155 Schwarber > 86 Pham

[moonslav59]

They were a medicore team last season. 14th pick in the draft? Pretty mediocre.

 

Nope. last place means we sucked.

 

[Old Red]

Again, you misrepresent my view.

 

I was happy with Vaz. I never wanted him demoted to back-up or replaced via trade, until I wanted a fire sale of all expiring contracts, last summer.

 

Just like Bogey, I liked both and wanted them on the Sox. I had an issue with their defense, and with Vaz's handling of the staff. I never said Vaz was not "good enough" or even implied it.

 

I'm not sure McGuire will be an upgrade. I'm hopeful his defense and pitcher handling will outweigh the expected loss on offense, but Vaz was inconsistent from year to year on offense, so it's hard to know what the offensive bar is for McGuire.

 

Ok on Vaz, and I should have said you didn’t think he was good enough on D. I stand corrected.

[Old Red]

They were a medicore team last season. 14th pick in the draft? Pretty mediocre.

 

They should have been better, but injuries, down years by some, and bad GM decisions took care of that.

[moonslav59]

Ok on Vaz, and I should have said you didn’t think he was good enough on D. I stand corrected.

 

I still think he was a net plus with us. A clear net plus. His defense was helped by his pitch-framing skills, blocking bad pitches and having a decent throwing arm. My only issue with him was how pitchers seemed to do worse with him than Leon and Plawecki.

 

I'm not sure Vaz will be as good over the term of his next contract. I have a little more faith in the younger McGuire and Wong than Vaz and Plawecki, going forward, but I know it's just a guess.

 

It's two different issue trying to determine if McGuire and Wong will be better than the 2022 catching tandem and which tandem would be better for 2023 and going forward.

[mvp 78]

Agreed, I think the catcher jobs are McGuire's and Wong's to lose, which of course, could happen. I like the added depth signing of Alfaro and along with the Duvall signing makes me think improving OBP is not really the number one or over-riding priority for the 2023 offense look.

 

I think Alfaro was simply brought in as a cheap backup in case Wong or McGuire don't work out. I don't think he's someone that was in their initial plans, but just fell into their laps.

 

With Duvall, the Story issue forced Kiké off CF and they had to go out and find a CFer. They probably looked at the trade market and felt a one year deal for Duvall was the easiest way to go about it. Maybe they see enough offseason progression/buy-in from Rafaela on plate discipline? Similarly, not someone they would have initially targeted. They just needed his defense badly and were willing to overlook the other deficiencies.

[Old Red]

Nope. last place means we sucked.

 

You left out losing record, so add that to last place with a $200M+ payroll was nothing to write home about. Do you want to tout 78 wins too like others have, and give them a participation trophy?

Edited January 20, 2023 by Old Red

[mvp 78]

And they probably valued Downs more than we did…

 

Downs was a highly touted prospect at the time of the trade. He was a good trade piece for the Dodgers. It just didn't work out in the end.

[mvp 78]

Who is high on Wong?

 

I think the bar being set at Plawecki makes a possible improvement not so far-fetched, but it's not about any great expectations for Wong.

 

Capable back up catcher is a high bar I guess???

[Old Red]

Capable back up catcher is a high bar I guess???

 

It is not a high bar, but I just think it would be good if the Red Sox had a real #1 C, and not 2 backups.

[mvp 78]

The point being Plawecki was just a backup to a #1 C. I know you didn’t think Vaz was good enough, and that’s fine, but now the Red Sox have no #1 C just a couple of backups.

 

According to FanGraphs, McGuire was better than Vaz last season.

[mvp 78]

They should have been better, but injuries, down years by some, and bad GM decisions took care of that.

 

I agree on all fronts. A better GM could have projected an increased amount of injuries due to adding a bunch of over the hill starters.

[moonslav59]

They should have been better, but injuries, down years by some, and bad GM decisions took care of that.

 

Is this a fair assessment to you?

 

The bad decisions between 2021 and 2022:

Renfroe for JBJ

Paxton signing

Diekman signing

Spent money on Story not the pen and 1B bench

Failed to trade for 1B or RF between May and July.

 

The so-so/decent to good moves:

Strahm signing

Hill signing

Wacha signing

Refsnyder signing

Schreiber signing (from '21 move)

Diekman for McGuire trade

 

It's not about the number of good vs bad, right? I agree the JBJ trade outweighs 2-3 good moves, but do you view the overall moves made by Bloom after 2021 as a net minus?

[Old Red]

According to FanGraphs, McGuire was better than Vaz last season.

 

I’d take Vaz for another year, but not for the contract that I got from the Twins, but that’s just me, and I don’t do fangraphs.

[moonslav59]

Capable back up catcher is a high bar I guess???

 

Improving on Plawecki should not be hard to do.

[moonslav59]

According to FanGraphs, McGuire was better than Vaz last season.

 

...and Vaz was a back-up on the Astros, too, so both of you can be right.

[moonslav59]

I’d take Vaz for another year, but not for the contract that I got from the Twins, but that’s just me, and I don’t do fangraphs.

 

But, you fault the GM for not making deals you don't like.

[Old Red]

Is this a fair assessment to you?

 

The bad decisions between 2021 and 2022:

Renfroe for JBJ

Paxton signing

Diekman signing

Spent money on Story not the pen and 1B bench

Failed to trade for 1B or RF between May and July.

 

The so-so/decent to good moves:

Strahm signing

Hill signing

Wacha signing

Refsnyder signing

Schreiber signing (from '21 move)

Diekman for McGuire trade

 

It's not about the number of good vs bad, right? I agree the JBJ trade outweighs 2-3 good moves, but do you view the overall moves made by Bloom after 2021 as a net minus?

This looks pretty good, but looking at things now it would have been a better move to resign Schwarber. I thought JD would be good enough for 1 more year, but he wasn’t.

[Old Red]

...and Vaz was a back-up on the Astros, too, so both of you can be right.

 

And Vaz was brought there for that reason.

[Old Red]

But, you fault the GM for not making deals you don't like.

What deals?

[mvp 78]

It is not a high bar, but I just think it would be good if the Red Sox had a real #1 C, and not 2 backups.

 

What is a real #1 though? Just because a guy plays 100 games, doesn't mean he's better than 2 guys that do a timeshare. Even Cora mentioned that Vaz' heavy workload had a negative impact on him.

[Bellhorn04]

Improving on Plawecki should not be hard to do.

 

Wasn't Plawecki a decent CERA guy?

[Old Red]

What is a real #1 though? Just because a guy plays 100 games, doesn't mean he's better than 2 guys that do a timeshare. Even Cora mentioned that Vaz' heavy workload had a negative impact on him.

 

Good point.

[mvp 78]

I’d take Vaz for another year, but not for the contract that I got from the Twins, but that’s just me, and I don’t do fangraphs.

 

Vaz is ok, but I honestly think he's a little overrated. He had some CLUTCH moments, but that's mostly because he stuck around so long. It's like Rich Gedman. I have fond memories of him because he played here for so long, even though he was only good for 84-86. I still remember watching him hit for the cycle.