A Realistic View at 2023: Part I

[moonslav59]

Today is also the deadline for QO players to accept or decline.

[notin]

Today is also the deadline for QO players to accept or decline.

 

I expect Bogaerts to decline (who doesn’t?) and negotiate around the league.

 

I expect Eovaldi to decline but continue to negotiate with the Red Sox and likely land a multiyear deal.

 

I also expect only Joc Pederson, Tyler Anderson and Martin Perez to accept offers…

[moonslav59]

Manager of the Year will be announced, today.

 

It is expected that Cora receives only one vote, from Ole Red.

[moonslav59]

I expect Bogaerts to decline (who doesn’t?) and negotiate around the league.

 

I expect Eovaldi to decline but continue to negotiate with the Red Sox and likely land a multiyear deal.

 

I also expect only Joc Pederson, Tyler Anderson and Martin Perez to accept offers…

 

I'm not sure which is worse: Nate at $19.3M/1 or $30M/2. Neither is a real bad deal, but I think it's time we move on.

[notin]

I'm not sure which is worse: Nate at $19.3M/1 or $30M/2. Neither is a real bad deal, but I think it's time we move on.

 

To where?

[moonslav59]

Glancing at the 40 man roster, I notice a few interesting things:

 

1. Only 6 players were on the 40 man roster under DD: Barnes, Sale, Devers, Brasier, Taylor and DHern.

 

2. Other than those 6, only 7 others were in the Sox system under DD: Dalbec, Houck, Mata, Duran, Crawford, Casas & Bello.

 

3. That leaves 24 slots filled by players acquired after DD left.

 

Rule 5 additions will likely be:

 

Rafaela, Walter, Ward, Murphy & Wikelman (all DD) These 5 would bring DD's number up to 18 out of 40.

 

Possibles: Abreu (Bloom), Scott (DD), Wallace (Bloom), Politi (DD)

 

 

[moonslav59]

To where?

 

To someone younger, maybe via trade.

 

I am clinging to the idea of taking on some salary from the Marlins- like AGarcia or Soler to lessen the return needed for Lopez, Garrett, Lazardo, Rogers or Cabrera. I think Alcantara is off limits.

 

If we could get Berti, too, I'd be thrilled.

[moonslav59]

Maybe the Mariners can sign Bogey or Correa and make this trade:

 

Houck for Crawford, Flexen and Winker.

 

(I'm not sure I like this trade, but we do get a SS, DH and SP'er.)

[mvp 78]

I'm not sure which is worse: Nate at $19.3M/1 or $30M/2. Neither is a real bad deal, but I think it's time we move on.

 

I thought you were advocating for an Eovaldi QO?

[moonslav59]

I thought you were advocating for an Eovaldi QO?

 

Not me. I even said, back a ways, I'd rather give Wacha a QO than Nate, but I realize that was unsound.

Edited November 15, 2022 by moonslav59

[harmony]

Maybe the Mariners can sign Bogey or Correa and make this trade:

 

Houck for Crawford, Flexen and Winker.

 

(I'm not sure I like this trade, but we do get a SS, DH and SP'er.)

Tanner Houck is an unlikely trade target for the Mariners given the pitching depth in the Seattle system.

[moonslav59]

Tanner Houck is an unlikely trade target for the Mariners given the pitching depth in the Seattle system.

 

You can never have enough pitching, and Houck is an upgrade over Flexin. It's upgrading quality not adding quantity of pitching.

[notin]

Tanner Houck is an unlikely trade target for the Mariners given the pitching depth in the Seattle system.

 

1. Yes the Mariners have not had depth like this since they had Danny Hultzen, James Paxton and Luis Gohara. Hopefully this crew is more successful.

 

2. Acquiring Houck would free up the Mariners to deal a prospect or two. It’s not a bad thing.

 

3. It gets them out of Crawford’s contract.

[notin]

I thought you were advocating for an Eovaldi QO?

 

That was me. Again, I’m the more handsome one…

[mvp 78]

That was me. Again, I’m the more handsome one…

 

I'm not sure what determinations we've made about moon except that he needs to use larger fonts and is bad at math.

[moonslav59]

1. Yes the Mariners have not had depth like this since they had Danny Hultzen, James Paxton and Luis Gohara. Hopefully this crew is more successful.

 

2. Acquiring Houck would free up the Mariners to deal a prospect or two. It’s not a bad thing.

 

3. It gets them out of Crawford’s contract.

 

I'm thinking the Sox would be more likely to say no, but many trades might get no's from both sides.

[moonslav59]

I'm not sure what determinations we've made about moon except that he needs to use larger fonts ...

 

Are you advocating for bigger not bolder?

[mvp 78]

Are you advocating for bigger not bolder?

 

Perfect!

[moonslav59]

Perfect!

 

I might just go bigger and Bolder

[mvp 78]

I might just go bigger and Bolder

 

Fine with me.

[mvp 78]

Ian Cundell at SoxProspects believes the following will be protected:

Rafaela

Walter

Murphy

Ward

Wikelman

 

Others mentioned as "tough decisions":

 

AJ Politi, RHP

2022 Highest Level: Worcester

Politi is the toughest decision of the remaining players, as I think there is a decent chance he will be selected if not protected. He is major league-ready right now, and even though there isn't much upside he could be a solid depth arm. At the same time, there are several other arms already on the 40-man roster who I have ahead of him as depth relievers, and over the past two years, the Red Sox have shown a willingness to take their chances with a player like him and hope that he makes it through without being selected.

 

Another possibility is the Red Sox make a trade before the deadline. Certain Rule 5-eligible prospects, like Brainer Bonaci and Wilyer Abreu, have little chance of contributing in the big leagues in the near term. While it could be a little difficult for the Red Sox to keep those players on the 40-man roster for several years until they could make an impact at the MLB level, it might be easier for a rebuilding team to do so. As a result, we could see the team make a trade like they did in 2020, when they traded Yoan Aybar, who was actually already on the 40-man roster, to the Colorado Rockies for Christian Koss, who was not eligible until this year. Although that technically was not a deal made for the Rule 5 Draft in particular, the concept would be the same.

 

Wilyer Abreu, OF

2022 Highest Level: Portland

After he was acquired from the Astros at the trade deadline, Abreu struggled, hitting .242/.399/.375 in 168 plate appearances, and was even worse in the AFL, hitting .167/.275/.204 in 54 at-bats. He does have some strong underlying metrics with a 20% chase rate, strong numbers against fastballs 94 mph and up, and solid-average exit velocities, but I think he is not close enough to MLB and lacks the upside to warrant using a 40-man spot on him at this point.

[mvp 78]

Ian noted the following as just "high minors depth" right behind the tough decisions:

 

Ryan Fernandez, RHP

2022 Highest Level: Portland

Fernandez was a pop-up arm this year, with his velocity increasing from 92-95 mph to 96-98 mph. He also revamped his secondary pitches and was flashing a plus cutter as well. Unfortunately, Hernandez went on the injured list on July 30 with elbow soreness and made just one appearance in August before heading back to the IL for the rest of the season. If he was healthy and pitched like he did in the first half for the last two months of the season, he would have been a difficult decision, but given the uncertainty with his injury, I think the Red Sox will leave him unprotected.

 

Jacob Wallace, RHP

2022 Highest Level: Portland

When he is throwing strikes, Wallace has some of the best stuff of any relief arm in the system. He can run his fastball up to 100 mph and will flash a plus-plus breaking ball. His delivery is very volatile, however, and he has yet to show consistency from outing to outing and the ability to hold his command and control for extended stretches. It would not surprise me if a team took a shot on him if he is left unprotected given his pitch characteristics.

 

Christian Koss, IF

2022 Highest Level: Portland

Koss had a solid year in Portland, putting up a respectable .260/.309/.430 line with 17 home runs and 16 stolen bases. He is a steady defender and has added versatility to his game (he is seeing a good amount of time in left field in Puerto Rico right now), but at the plate, his approach limits him. He rarely walks and has too much swing-and-miss in his game. His underlying metrics are also rough, as he has a high chase rate, low hard-hit rate, and really struggled against fastballs 94 mph and up.

 

Stephen Scott, C/1B/LF

2022 Highest Level: Portland

Scott has played his way into this conversation by adding positional versatility at catcher, where he spent all of his 2022 defensive innings, and showing a very advanced approach. After struggling in Greenville, he was moved up to Portland and showed improved results, hitting .238/.371/.403 in 256 plate appearances. He had almost as many walks as strikeouts during that time, and his underlying metrics were pretty strong, sporting a low chase rate and solid-average hard-hit rate and exit velocities. He carried that over to the AFL, where he was named to the Fall Stars Game and an AFL All-Star by MLB Pipeline.

 

He had a few thoughtful things to say about guys we have mentioned recently.

[mvp 78]

@alexspeier

Per MLB source, Nate Eovaldi has declined the Red Sox' one-year, $19.65 million qualifying offer. The two sides will continue to discuss the possibility of a multi-year deal, but Eovaldi remains a free agent.

[harmony]

1. Yes the Mariners have not had depth like this since they had Danny Hultzen, James Paxton and Luis Gohara. Hopefully this crew is more successful.

 

2. Acquiring Houck would free up the Mariners to deal a prospect or two. It’s not a bad thing.

 

3. It gets them out of Crawford’s contract.

1. Danny Hultzen, James Paxton and Luiz Gohara were never in the same prospect class. Hultzen, Paxton and Taijuan Walker were. FWIW 25-year-old Logan Gilbert, with 5.4 fWAR in 56 starts, and 24-year-old George Kirby, with 3.0 fWAR in 25 starts, may have already surpassed that trio pitching as the third and fourth starters behind Luis Castillo and Robbie Ray.

 

2. The Mariners would not "free up" anything by trading a pitcher who has made 53 starts in the past two years for a pitcher who has 20 career starts.

 

3. Seattle does not want out of the last four years of the contract with 27-year-old J.P. Crawford, who over the past two seasons has posted 5.3 fWAR, valued at $42.6 million.

[Bellhorn04]

I might just go bigger and Bolder

 

Restless Red Sox fans are craving some moves that are Bigger and Bolder, Longer and Larger.

[moonslav59]

No TWard!

 

The Red Sox have selected the contracts of prospects Ceddanne Rafaela, Brandon Walter, Chris Murphy, David Hamilton and Wilyer Abreu ahead of the Rule 5 draft deadline, according to Christopher Smith of Masslive.com. They’ve also designated Jake Reed and Caleb Hamilton for assignment per Alex Speier of the Boston Globe.

[moonslav59]

My prediction for Rule 5 Protection Day:

 

We add: Rafaela, Walter, Ward to get us to 40.

 

DFA Chang and add Murphy

DFA C Hamilton and add W. Gonzalez

DFA Jake Reed (maybe Kaleb Ort) and add W Abreu

 

Take our chances and do not protect: Paulino (too far away), Politi & Wallace (fingers crossed)

 

I don't think we have to worry about: Fernandez, Bonaci, Scott, Feltman, Koss, Hamilton, Jimenez, V. Santos, Cottam or Granberg.

 

No T Ward protection. I wonder if he gets taken.

 

Hamilton seems a bit surprising, to me. Abreu- not at all.

 

I had Chang as the first DFA guy, but my second and 3rd choices were DFA'd: Reed & C Hamilton.

 

The "kepeers" were Rafaela, Walter, Murphy, Abreu & Hamilton. (E Valdez was added earlier.)

[notin]

No T Ward protection. I wonder if he gets taken.

 

Hamilton seems a bit surprising, to me. Abreu- not at all.

 

I had Chang as the first DFA guy, but my second and 3rd choices were DFA'd: Reed & C Hamilton.

 

The "kepeers" were Rafaela, Walter, Murphy, Abreu & Hamilton. (E Valdez was added earlier.)

 

So Bloom is not as high on Jacob Wallace as I am, or feels he won’t get selected.

 

But here’s the thing - he will…

[moonslav59]

So Bloom is not as high on Jacob Wallace as I am, or feels he won’t get selected.

 

But here’s the thing - he will…

 

I'm thinking T Ward has a higher chance of being selected, but there could be two.

[moonslav59]

The updated 40 Man Roster, as of tonight:

 

SP: Sale, Whitlock, Bello, Pivetta, Paxton (Mata, Walter)

SP/RP: Crawford, Winckowski (Seabold, Murphy)

RP: Houck, Schreiber, Barnes, Brasier, Taylor, Kelly (German, Ort, DHern)

C: McGuire, Wong (RHernandez)

1B: Casas

2B: Story, Arroyo

3B: Devers

SS: Chang (Hamilton, Downs)

LF: Verdugo (Cordero, Duran)

CF: Hernandez (Rafaela)

RF: Refsnyder (Abreu)

DH: Dalbec, Hosmer

 

Possible Rule 5 losses: TWard, Wallace, Scott, Wikelman G, Paulino