A Realistic View at 2023: Part I

[Bellhorn04]

Which pitching prospect did we hold onto that was desirable at the time that is now better than Kopech?

 

Kopech has a career fWAR of 2.7. How good is he? Still pretty hard to say. Injuries have derailed him a lot, obviously.

[mvp 78]

I see some of that, but the team did make the ALCS in 2021, and did they really "have to bring JBJ back"?

 

And frankly they should have spent Story's money on pitching.

 

We didn't really have to fail in 2022.

 

If Margot was still in the organization, they wouldn't have felt the need to bring JBJ back. Did they have to? Of course not. But they needed to fill those roles with players outside of the organization. They just chose the wrong player in that instance. Margot made $5.6M in 2023, has a good glove and isn't an embarrassment at the plate.

 

If they put Story's money into pitching, who plays 2b? If Arroyo is out for half of a season, are they going to give Downs 80 games of run?

 

They did sign 3 Starting Pitchers last offseason: Paxton, Hill and Wacha. Their relief acquisitions were less than ideal, but I'm guessing you're throwing money at Jansen or Iglesias?

[mvp 78]

Kopech has a career fWAR of 2.7. How good is he? Still pretty hard to say. Injuries have derailed him a lot, obviously.

 

I'm not saying he's going to win the CY tomorrow, but which pitcher that was in the organization at the time Kopech was traded is better than Kopech right now?

 

The top 20 at the time:

Groome

Kopech

B. Johnson

Raudes

Ball

Ysla

Shawaryn

Martin

 

Seems like the pitching depth at the time was bad and they traded the only guy in the organization that could have helped them in the near future.

[moonslav59]

Which pitching prospect did we hold onto that was desirable at the time that is now better than Kopech?

 

I meant the group of prospects he held onto have turned out better than those he traded combined.

 

Many of the prospects he held onto were largely unknown 3-5 years ago or drafted/IFA signed by DD, himself.

 

The significant players traded:

Moncada

Kopech

Margot

Espinal

Beeks

 

The ones he kept or acquired and kept:

Devers

Houck

Casas

Bello

Crawford

Mata

Rafaela

Perales

Paulino

Walter

Wikelman

Murphy

 

(Duran, Dhern

[mvp 78]

I meant the group of prospects he held onto have turned out better than those he traded combined.

 

Many of the prospects he held onto were largely unknown 3-5 years ago or drafted/IFA signed by DD, himself.

 

The significant players traded:

Moncada

Kopech

Margot

Espinal

Beeks

 

The ones he kept or acquired and kept:

Devers

Houck

Casas

Bello

Crawford

Mata

Rafaela

Perales

Paulino

Walter

Wikelman

Murphy

 

(Duran, Dhern

 

The only guys in the organization from your list aside from Devers when Kopech was here were Mata and DHern. I'd trade both of them for Kopech. Aside from Devers, the rest of that group is still largely a bunch of question marks.

 

What do you think DD's thoughts were on 26th round Walter right before he was let go in 2019? Do you think he even knew what position he played?

[moonslav59]

The only guys in the organization from your list aside from Devers when Kopech was here were Mata and DHern. I'd trade both of them for Kopech. Aside from Devers, the rest of that group is still largely a bunch of question marks.

 

What do you think DD's thoughts were on 26th round Walter right before he was let go in 2019? Do you think he even knew what position he played?

 

I pointed out many were "largely unknown." I think that answers your question.

 

BTW, Houck was "in the organization" before DD left. He was "largely unknown," but he was here..

[Bellhorn04]

I'm not saying he's going to win the CY tomorrow, but which pitcher that was in the organization at the time Kopech was traded is better than Kopech right now?

 

The top 20 at the time:

Groome

Kopech

B. Johnson

Raudes

Ball

Ysla

Shawaryn

Martin

 

Seems like the pitching depth at the time was bad and they traded the only guy in the organization that could have helped them in the near future.

 

He was traded for Sale, so that easily justifies it.

[moonslav59]

He was traded for Sale, so that easily justifies it.

 

True, but MVP was asking so mething else.

 

He might trade Mata & DHern for Kopech, but would he trade Houck and Bello? Houck & Mata? Bello & Mata?

 

While many in the system were unknown or too far away to know much, DD did seem to keep many of the right ones.

 

No doubt, having Kopech, margot, Moncada and others would make us better than the current Sale, Nate, Kimbrell and Pomeranz, but the fact is, DD did not "decimate" the farm.

 

The farm handed to him was over-rated and weak. He did very little to improve it, except that his draftees and IFA signings have outperformed expectations, so far.

 

Houck is about the only one to do anything at the ML level, so far, but a lot, including Casas, Bello, Mata and Walter are knocking on the door.

 

Bloom's additions should not be expected to be making ML appearances for another year or two, but he did bring us Whitlock via Rule 5 and a bunch of near ML ready prospects via trades, some who have not shown much hope, like Wink, Seabold & Downs, but Wong has shown some glimmer of hope, and others are still rising on the farm.

[mvp 78]

He was traded for Sale, so that easily justifies it.

 

I've already said that the Sox would do the Sale trade again 10/10 times. That's not the question.

[cp176]

Bloom only has a top 10 farm because he hasn't traded prospects and lucked into the best prospect in a recent draft. I don't think anyone thinks he has a magical touch. They just prefer his philosophy.

 

DD was exactly what the Sox needed at that point in time. They had a young core that were in a window and ready to explode. He made the great Red Sox team of all time. The biggest problem was what he did after the WS win (Eovaldi contract and Sale contract). We spend time talking about him trading off prospects because this is a baseball forum and we don't have anything else to talk about. He made some bad deals (Thornburg) and had a propensity to throw in an extra prospect at the end of a deal just to push it over the finish line. This isn't an issue short term, but it's part of the reason the Sox have struggled recently. Again, flags fly forever and you can't diminish what DD did in 2018.

 

From my perspective, your post works perfectly. I agree. I spend a little too much time on the fringes with respect to many of these arguments here. It is for sure something to do. I do tend to get hot and bothered when some claim that they have a clue as to what any plan might be. If someone was to interview for the position of GM for the Boston Red Sox and was asked as to what their plan might be and the response was to build up the farm over the next 4 to 7 years so that the franchise would be successful moving forward and the next person simply said to win, I think that it is highly likely that if you want to survive financially you go with candidate B. I realize that nothing really is that simple.

[mvp 78]

From my perspective, your post works perfectly. I agree. I spend a little too much time on the fringes with respect to many of these arguments here. It is for sure something to do. I do tend to get hot and bothered when some claim that they have a clue as to what any plan might be. If someone was to interview for the position of GM for the Boston Red Sox and was asked as to what their plan might be and the response was to build up the farm over the next 4 to 7 years so that the franchise would be successful moving forward and the next person simply said to win, I think that it is highly likely that if you want to survive financially you go with candidate B. I realize that nothing really is that simple.

 

None of us has insider knowledge. We're all in the dark. We can make educated guesses about what the Sox may do, but even people in the media who have direct access to Bloom barely have more of a clue than we do. This is all just for fun and nothing to take seriously.

[moonslav59]

None of us has insider knowledge. We're all in the dark. We can make educated guesses about what the Sox may do, but even people in the media who have direct access to Bloom barely have more of a clue than we do. This is all just for fun and nothing to take seriously.

 

One clue that shows building up the farm is one of our top priorities is the fact that Bloom has traded very few known prospects (Groome for Hosmer and 2 prospects) and Aldo Ramirez for Schwarber. He has also made many trades bringing prospects to the Sox, some beyond July rental sell-offs.

 

Betts for Dugo (not a prospect) and Downs & Wong

Beni for Cordero (not a prospect), Winckowski and 3 lower level prospects.

Nothing for Ottavino (and his contract) & German

Renfroe for JBJ (not a prospect) and Binelas & Hamilton

 

Some notable deadline deals that brought some prospects:

Workman & Hembree for Pivetta (not a prospect) & Seabold

Pillar for J Wallace

Moreland for Potts and JRosario

Mazza & Springs for RHern

Cash for AAlmonte

Vazquez for EValdez & WAbreu

Groome for Hosmer (not a prospect) and Ferguson & Rosier (mentioned above)

 

 

 

 

[mvp 78]

One clue that shows building up the farm is one of our top priorities is the fact that Bloom has traded very few known prospects (Groome for Hosmer and 2 prospects) and Aldo Ramirez for Schwarber. He has also made many trades bringing prospects to the Sox, some beyond July rental sell-offs.

 

This doesn't mean that the trend will continue. We can guess that it will, but Henry could tell Bloom this offseason the the big club needs to be better causing Bloom to make a surprise trade or two.

[moonslav59]

This doesn't mean that the trend will continue. We can guess that it will, but Henry could tell Bloom this offseason the the big club needs to be better causing Bloom to make a surprise trade or two.

 

I agree, and I have been been openly calling for a major prospects for solid pitcher trade. but nothing like the scale of DD's 2+ year trading swirl.

[mvp 78]

I agree, and I have been been openly calling for a major prospects for solid pitcher trade. but nothing like the scale of DD's 2+ year trading swirl.

 

Yeah, I don't see Bloom doing the Pomeranz trade, the Thornburg trade or even the Kimbrel trade. Sale? Sure.

[Bellhorn04]

One clue that shows building up the farm is one of our top priorities is the fact that Bloom has traded very few known prospects (Groome for Hosmer and 2 prospects) and Aldo Ramirez for Schwarber. He has also made many trades bringing prospects to the Sox, some beyond July rental sell-offs.

 

Betts for Dugo (not a prospect) and Downs & Wong

Beni for Cordero (not a prospect), Winckowski and 3 lower level prospects.

Nothing for Ottavino (and his contract) & German

Renfroe for JBJ (not a prospect) and Binelas & Hamilton

 

Some notable deadline deals that brought some prospects:

Workman & Hembree for Pivetta (not a prospect) & Seabold

Pillar for J Wallace

Moreland for Potts and JRosario

Mazza & Springs for RHern

Cash for AAlmonte

Vazquez for EValdez & WAbreu

Groome for Hosmer (not a prospect) and Ferguson & Rosier (mentioned above)

 

 

On Ottavino's transactions page it shows the Sox sent a PTBNL, but it doesn't say who that turned out to be.

 

Also worth noting, I guess, is that Ottavino had a fine 2022 season and only made $4 million.

[mvp 78]

On Ottavino's transactions page it shows the Sox sent a PTBNL, but it doesn't say who that turned out to be.

 

Also worth noting, I guess, is that Ottavino had a fine 2022 season and only made $4 million.

 

It was a PTBNL or cash considerations. I'm not sure if the Sox ever sent someone to the Yankees for Ottavino. I don't remember them doing so.

[dgalehouse]

The Red Sox are in the lottery for the top selection in the June 2023 draft but have only an 0.76 percent chance of landing that No. 1 pick:

 

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2022/10/2023-draft-lottery-odds-finalized.html

 

The Cooler.

[dgalehouse]

Our farm system was a long way from being decimated for sure. Anytime any trade is made someone could claim that the farm was for sure weakened. Trades get made some are bigger deals than others. The ones that DD made were for the most part excellent and made our team better. We look at a lot of things from a hindsight perspective here. I do as well but constantly whining about everything bad that Dave Dombrowski did is as ridiculous as making it sound as though Chaim Bloom is an incredible farm builder. Jury is still out. I hope that he is. I guess adding people to the rosters is a good thing in the long run. But on the other hand whining about things sometimes is just a good outlet for a fan who doesn't have much to look forward to unless they are willing to wait 4-7 years right. lol Bloom is the guy in charge and I think deserves to be supported at least for now.

 

Decimated the farm ??? Dombrowski could have been arrested for larceny the way he outsmarted the other GMs. Kopech and Moncada were traded six years ago. So far , they have amounted to very little. Margot was traded seven years ago . He is having a mediocre , run of the mill career. Who was that other stiff ? Logan Allen ? Too funny. The Sox actually beat the Yankees and won the division three straight years. Light years better than finishing dead last. Now we are actually still blaming it on trades that were made six and seven years ago ? Give me a break.

[moonslav59]

Yeah, I don't see Bloom doing the Pomeranz trade, the Thornburg trade or even the Kimbrel trade. Sale? Sure.

 

He might need a slight arm twist to do a Sale-type deal.

 

The other factor is when they feel the highly competitive window is open. If they think it begins in 2024, they may not trade for a pitcher with 2-3 years of control, because they sort of "waste" one year, but if it helps boost ticket sales and NESN viewership, maybe that tips the balance, otherwise, they may wait till 2024 to make a splash trade.

 

The SP'er FA market is to risky and squishy to commit big money and long years.

 

I may sound like broken record, but I like notin's idea on pen arms to add, try to bring Wacha back on a QO, sign Nimmo and maybe Bogey or Swanson, and see if we can reset in 2023 doing that.

 

Extend Devers but with the contract not putting us over in 2023, so the extension begins in 2024. (Maybe we'd need to go with Swanson over Boget to reset, unless we dump salary, somehow and somewhere.

[mvp 78]

He might need a slight arm twist to do a Sale-type deal.

 

The other factor is when they feel the highly competitive window is open. If they think it begins in 2024, they may not trade for a pitcher with 2-3 years of control, because they sort of "waste" one year, but if it helps boost ticket sales and NESN viewership, maybe that tips the balance, otherwise, they may wait till 2024 to make a splash trade.

 

The SP'er FA market is to risky and squishy to commit big money and long years.

 

I may sound like broken record, but I like notin's idea on pen arms to add, try to bring Wacha back on a QO, sign Nimmo and maybe Bogey or Swanson, and see if we can reset in 2023 doing that.

 

Extend Devers but with the contract not putting us over in 2023, so the extension begins in 2024. (Maybe we'd need to go with Swanson over Boget to reset, unless we dump salary, somehow and somewhere.

 

I'm glad that it's ALREADY wait til next year.

[mvp 78]

Why even sign Nimmo for 2023 if they are just going to wait until 2024 to go for it. May as well cut payroll, trade Raffy and tank another season. At least do it the right way this time.

[Hugh2]

Why even sign Nimmo for 2023 if they are just going to wait until 2024 to go for it. May as well cut payroll, trade Raffy and tank another season. At least do it the right way this time.

 

The difference between picking #5 instead of #15 in baseball is so much more fluid in the MLB than it’s in the NFL or NBA. It’s not worth throwing the season.

 

The lesson from the last few seasons is the difference between a playoff caliber team and a last place team is not as much as we think. Similar teams, different results. Need more proof? 2012 to 2013. 2017-2018. Yes guys were added, but it was the usual suspects staying healthy and having better seasons.

 

You sign Nimo because you need a right fielder.

[moonslav59]

Why even sign Nimmo for 2023 if they are just going to wait until 2024 to go for it. May as well cut payroll, trade Raffy and tank another season. At least do it the right way this time.

 

Well, maybe two reasons I can think of:

 

1. To at least give the perception we are trying to win in 2023.

2. If we sign him for 2 or more years, he will help in 2024 and beyond, too.

 

(kinda like Story was for the here and now and beyond.

[moonslav59]

The difference between picking #5 instead of #15 in baseball is so much more fluid in the MLB than it’s in the NFL or NBA. It’s not worth throwing the season.

 

The lesson from the last few seasons is the difference between a playoff caliber team and a last place team is not as much as we think. Similar teams, different results. Need more proof? 2012 to 2013. 2017-2018. Yes guys were added, but it was the usual suspects staying healthy and having better seasons.

 

You sign Nimo because you need a right fielder.

 

Having the #4 pick really helped us, on paper, so far (w the Mayer pick.)

[mvp 78]

Well, maybe two reasons I can think of:

 

1. To at least give the perception we are trying to win in 2023.

2. If we sign him for 2 or more years, he will help in 2024 and beyond, too.

 

(kinda like Story was for the here and now and beyond.

 

But that's just wasting a year of Nimmo!

[moonslav59]

But that's just wasting a year of Nimmo!

 

Exactly the words I used, but if it placates the restless fans for 2023, maybe it serves that purpose.

 

One could say we "wasted" a year of Story (maybe two), but it did quiet the complainers a tiny bit for a brief period of time.

[Bellhorn04]

But that's just wasting a year of Nimmo!

 

As a wise man once said: "It's a good thing we're not paid to run the Red Sox."

[moonslav59]

As a wise man once said: "It's a good thing we're not paid to run the Red Sox."

 

You obviously are not talking about me.

 

I wanted us to trade for Montas and sign Baez & Suzuki, last winter, among many other great plans..

[Bellhorn04]

Exactly the words I used, but if it placates the restless fans for 2023, maybe it serves that purpose.

 

One could say we "wasted" a year of Story (maybe two), but it did quiet the complainers a tiny bit for a brief period of time.

 

That's a pretty yucky way to look at things.