A Realistic View at 2023: Part I

[Bellhorn04]

Based purely on their splits, a DH tandem of Hosmer and Dalbec should yield an OPS close to .800.

 

At a very cheap rate.

 

But tying up two spots on DH is an issue.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Well, desperate dave beat us to the punch on Schwarb.

 

WAR is saying Schwarb is overpaid, though.

 

fWAR 1.6

bWAR 1.2

 

If Kyle is overpaid, imagine JD -- does he really only have 12 homers and 55 ribbies? For the entire season?

 

I was going to say $20 million is the going rate for a 40 HR DH-type... but then realized that Dombro is the only guy who established that, by paying JD and now, Schwarber.

[mvp 78]

Well, desperate dave beat us to the punch on Schwarb.

 

WAR is saying Schwarb is overpaid, though.

 

fWAR 1.6

bWAR 1.2

 

Ah, but what about the narrative that he made everyone else around him better in 2021?

[cp176]

Well, desperate dave beat us to the punch on Schwarb.

 

WAR is saying Schwarb is overpaid, though.

 

fWAR 1.6

bWAR 1.2

 

Well what i would say Bell is this - In professional sports in general, who isn't overpaid? Who is WAR and is he signing the checks? Are you sure his name isn't Cliff? His name comes up often when discussing the sox here. (all meant to be a joke. just having fun.)

[cp176]

Ah, but what about the narrative that he made everyone else around him better in 2021?

 

Is there a metric used to measure that and if so what is its name? (I know that you can think of a good one.)

[Bellhorn04]

Well what i would say Bell is this - In professional sports in general, who isn't overpaid? Who is WAR and is he signing the checks? Are you sure his name isn't Cliff? His name comes up often when discussing the sox here. (all meant to be a joke. just having fun.)

 

And I have no problem with your joking.

 

What I find amusing about the chatter about Schwarb, though, is that the old school guys are talking only about his 40 homers, and completely dismissing his .214 batting average. But then they'll turn around and slag another player for his low batting average.

[Bellhorn04]

Ah, but what about the narrative that he made everyone else around him better in 2021?

 

Hey, I like Schwarb, and I liked having him on the team last year. He's definitely an offensive weapon. But his paycheck is pretty darn hefty too.

[mvp 78]

Based purely on their splits, a DH tandem of Hosmer and Dalbec should yield an OPS close to .800.

 

At a very cheap rate.

 

But tying up two spots on DH is an issue.

 

Dalbec should be able to play 3b and LF. They may even push him to RF depending on the stadium. Hosmer is 1B/DH. Now that there are 26 man rosters, I think you can reasonably carry both especially since one is RH and the other is LH. I think Hosmer is expendable once they are comfortable with Casas. That's the real key.

[mvp 78]

Hey, I like Schwarb, and I liked having him on the team last year. He's definitely an offensive weapon. But his paycheck is pretty darn hefty too.

 

Big boys eat more at the buffet.

[Bellhorn04]

Dalbec should be able to play 3b and LF. They may even push him to RF depending on the stadium. Hosmer is 1B/DH. Now that there are 26 man rosters, I think you can reasonably carry both especially since one is RH and the other is LH. I think Hosmer is expendable once they are comfortable with Casas. That's the real key.

 

It'd be cool if we can cover both 1B and DH for small money.

[mvp 78]

Is there a metric used to measure that and if so what is its name? (I know that you can think of a good one.)

 

Kyle last year was good for 10 Walthams, 50 check marks and 100 ML Carr Towell Waves.

[Old Red]

And I have no problem with your joking.

 

What I find amusing about the chatter about Schwarb, though, is that the old school guys are talking only about his 40 homers, and completely dismissing his .214 batting average. But then they'll turn around and slag another player for his low batting average.

A 214 average isn’t good no matter who it is, but hitting 40 HR is more accepted than a leadoff guy hitting 214 with 6 HR. Schwaber does hit leadoff, but his job is to hit HR, and drive in runs, where some leadoff guys main job is to get on base, and let someone else drive them in.

[mvp 78]

It'd be cool if we can cover both 1B and DH for small money.

 

At this point, it seems a strong likelihood that Bloom goes that route. I don't think some people on here will be happy about it.

[Bellhorn04]

At this point, it seems a strong likelihood that Bloom goes that route. I don't think some people on here will be happy about it.

 

They might be happier if they spend the money saved on Bogey/Devers/pitching.

[moonslav59]

Based purely on their splits, a DH tandem of Hosmer and Dalbec should yield an OPS close to .800.

 

At a very cheap rate.

 

But tying up two spots on DH is an issue.

 

Closer to .750, if you go by 2022 numbers.

 

Guess what our current DH OPS is?

 

.750

[Bellhorn04]

Closer to .750, if you go by 2022 numbers.

 

Guess what our current DH OPS is?

 

.750

 

I'm going by career numbers. But considering that JD is $22 million, just replacing his numbers is a big gain financially.

[moonslav59]

I'm going by career numbers. But considering that JD is $22 million, just replacing his numbers is a big gain financially.

 

Agreed, and I've been saying I don't think we touch DH and 1B, We may add a cheap 1B/DH type, but our needs, elsewhere are higher, and we don't have a Casas coming up at SS, RF and P.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

They might be happier if they spend the money saved on Bogey/Devers/pitching.

 

Better get used to that idea. There's no way Bloom is finally getting salary relief for a DH-only guy and then committing to another one. Already covered internally: DH, catcher, 1B (it's 50-50 they even carry Hosmer on next year's roster, and only because he's free; he's not even a good hitter anymore).

 

The Sox will be serious about improving next year if they add a legitimate run-producing outfielder, three starting pitchers, and three relievers -- including at least one or two established bullpen arms (not just guys they're going to convert).

 

If there is any talk from management about counting on guys returning from injury -- and that includes Sale, Whitlock, Houck, or the next Paxton -- then they're building and burning bridges again.

[mvp 78]

Agreed, and I've been saying I don't think we touch DH and 1B, We may add a cheap 1B/DH type, but our needs, elsewhere are higher, and we don't have a Casas coming up at SS, RF and P.

 

They could spend big again on DH if they are knocking on the door of a WS run. They aren't at that point right now.

[moonslav59]

They could spend big again on DH if they are knocking on the door of a WS run. They aren't at that point right now.

 

Yup.

 

I do think making the playoffs is realistic for 2023.

[harmony]

Yup.

 

I do think making the playoffs is realistic for 2023.

What AL East teams are expected to step back in 2023?

 

The Red Sox are six games behind the upstart Baltimore Orioles and 10.5 games behind the next closest AL East opponent.

Edited September 23, 2022 by harmony

[cp176]

And I have no problem with your joking.

 

What I find amusing about the chatter about Schwarb, though, is that the old school guys are talking only about his 40 homers, and completely dismissing his .214 batting average. But then they'll turn around and slag another player for his low batting average.

 

Oh you mean like Story?

[cp176]

Kyle last year was good for 10 Walthams, 50 check marks and 100 ML Carr Towell Waves.

 

You can't smoke a cigar on the sidelines anymore. Makes a towel wave a must. Nobody tops M.L. Carr.

[Bellhorn04]

Oh you mean like Story?

 

Story is one, yes. Also Kike, when it was announced we re-signed him for 2023.

[cp176]

Story is one, yes. Also Kike, when it was announced we re-signed him for 2023.

 

Honestly, I don't think either of those moves are bad moves. Gives us a very capable center fielder and a second baseman who can field it and provide some power punch. There are other obvious holes in the everyday lineup that if not addressed we likely won't be much better next year even if our luck is better.

[Bellhorn04]

What AL East teams are expected to step back in 2023?

 

The Red Sox are six games behind the upstart Baltimore Orioles and 10.5 games behind the next closest AL East opponent.

 

Things change a lot from one year to the next and many unexpected things happen. You already know this.

[dgalehouse]

Things change a lot from one year to the next and many unexpected things happen. You already know this.

 

I know I am a broken record on this , but just having a first rate bullpen would make the Sox a much better team. And maybe a power hitting outfielder.

[Bellhorn04]

I know I am a broken record on this , but just having a first rate bullpen would make the Sox a much better team. And maybe a power hitting outfielder.

 

You're right about the bullpen. Very big priority. If Bloom doesn't upgrade it significantly I'll be pissed too.

[mvp 78]

What AL East teams are expected to step back in 2023?

 

The Red Sox are six games behind the upstart Baltimore Orioles and 10.5 games behind the next closest AL East opponent.

 

Did you expect the O's to win 30+ more games this season? Did you expect the ALCS Sox to drop 20? s*** changes year to year.

[mvp 78]

You're right about the bullpen. Very big priority. If Bloom doesn't upgrade it significantly I'll be pissed too.

 

If we go into next season with the Red Sox having question marks in the OF and an ugly relief corps, I'm going to lose my mind...