A Realistic View at 2023: Part I

[Bellhorn04]

Xander's WAR is 5.3, 9th best in MLB and highest among MLB shortstops, so you judgment is seriously flawed.

 

Yes, not only his judgment, but his factual content.

 

Oh well, that's our jackson.

[Larry Cook]

There's no way they're extending both. Xander's loss of power makes it even more guaranteed. Xander may be hurt or that may have been a smokescreen. If he loses his power and is a slap hitting, high average, awful defensive SS, you dont want him on your roster well beyond his mid 30s. Story is the better defender and the better power hitter who will likely be better in the long run. For Devers, I would look at what you can get for him. He's good, but he's not Juan Soto. His biggest asset financially is the age he will hit FA, and that doesn't benefit the Red Sox. Sox have too many holes right now to commit 12 years and stupid money to. Might be better off filling multiple holes by offloading him, and if he's dead set on hitting FA, outbid others for his services 24 and beyond

 

Could bogey be bluffing on the opt out given his lack of power?

[moonslav59]

Xander's WAR is 5.3, 9th best in MLB and highest among MLB shortstops, so you judgment is seriously flawed.

 

I agree renewing Bogaerts and Devers is really hard given all the other things to fix, most notably pitching.

 

Another issue for Devers is he will want at least 10 years, and I don't see John Henry signing up for that.

 

The thing is, if we spend half the winter spending budget on Devers and Bogey, at best we are just breaking even at SS and 3B from 2021 to 2022, and have maybe $35-40M left over to spend on replacing Wacha, Hill, JD, Kike and also fix the pen and RF.

[notin]

Could bogey be bluffing on the opt out given his lack of power?

 

No.

[a700hitter]

People are talking about Bogey having an off year and he is leading the league in hitting. That is how good he is. The Red Sox should lock him up long term and build the team around him, Story and Devers.

[jacksonianmarch]

Xander's WAR is 5.3, 9th best in MLB and highest among MLB shortstops, so you judgment is seriously flawed.

 

I agree renewing Bogaerts and Devers is really hard given all the other things to fix, most notably pitching.

 

Another issue for Devers is he will want at least 10 years, and I don't see John Henry signing up for that.

 

Yes, his WAR is great. Yes, he is still a great player, for sure. I am saying locking up Bogey long term when you're seeing his power drop and know his defense has been suspect (although better this year) heading into a season where he will be 30 and likely need to offer 7-8 years is a bad use of resources. The sox, barring an unprecedented spree this offseason, are likely not to be WS contenders next year. Why spend top dollar for a guy who's prime may be starting to fade when you're not a title contender?

[jacksonianmarch]

Honestly, I could see the yanks sign Bogey. Yanks are heading to the POs this year, but need an offensive injection assuming they re-sign Judge. Adding Bogey would add a now player for a now team

[moonslav59]

Honestly, I could see the yanks sign Bogey. Yanks are heading to the POs this year, but need an offensive injection assuming they re-sign Judge. Adding Bogey would add a now player for a now team

 

How long till they'd move him to 2B?

[Larry Cook]

How long till they'd move him to 2B?

 

What do we do with story?

[moonslav59]

What do we do with story?

 

I meant, if the Yanks sign Bogey.

 

I was responding to jacko's point about the Yanks signing Bogey.

[SPLENDIDSPLINTER]

Honestly, I could see the yanks sign Bogey. Yanks are heading to the POs this year, but need an offensive injection assuming they re-sign Judge. Adding Bogey would add a now player for a now team

 

Yup, they're a 'now' team, but will end up being a 'nowhere' team early in the PO's. Oh, unless they play the Twinkies in the 1st round.

Edited September 5, 2022 by SPLENDIDSPLINTER

[jacksonianmarch]

Yup, they're a 'now' team, but will end up being a 'nowhere' team early in the PO's. Oh, unless they play the Twinkies in the 1st round.

 

The second half Yankees won't beat anyone.

 

Thing is, when you give out an enormous contract, you need to look at the first half of the contract as the years they earn the money. Doing so on a SS who needs to be moved off position and who's showing a worrying drop in power is a recipe for disaster before the halfway point of the contract. If he is earning his money on a team that isn't very good, then it is a waste. Xander's FA timing and the sox org timing are off. The sox need another 2 years for their prospects to catch up to the bigs and either be major trade pieces or future cogs in a rising organization. You're losing so many starters and have essentially no pitching staff heading into next year without true top of the rotation level guys coming through the ranks. So why extend Bogaerts if he might be on the down swing

[sk7326]

The thing with Bogaerts this season is that the doubles are still there and the line drive rate is still there. The fly balls have taken a dive - it does make you wonder whether this is just something mechanical that can be fixed in the offseason. He has not shown any markers of being an easier hitter for a pitcher to deal with.

 

I am ambivalent about re-signing him - only because he is 30 and a lot of his WAR bounceback is driven by defense which seems a little trickier to sustain. But he is a good player, even if perhaps you have to think about moving him to 3B down the line.

[Maxbialystock]

The thing is, if we spend half the winter spending budget on Devers and Bogey, at best we are just breaking even at SS and 3B from 2021 to 2022, and have maybe $35-40M left over to spend on replacing Wacha, Hill, JD, Kike and also fix the pen and RF.

 

Could not agree more. I like both of them a ton, and they have been good for the franchise and us fans.

 

But I just looked at MLB pitching, season to date. These are the teams with the best ERA's--

 

1. Dodgers, running away with the NL with 92 wins.

2. Astros, 87 wins, most in AL.

3. Rays, 75 wins, but could catch the Yankees despite so-so hitting.

4. Yankees, 81 wins, AL East lead.

5. Braves, 84 wins, right behind the Mets for NL East.

6. Mariners, 76-59, in the wild card despite 21st in MLB in runs scored.

7. Mets, 85 wins, NL East lead

8. Guardians, 69-64, AL Central lead.

9. Cardinals, 79-56, NL Central lead.

10. Angels, 59-76.

11. Orioles, 71-64, their best season in a long time.

12. Jays, 75-59, their hitting is better

13. Brewers, 71-63, 2 games out of wild card.

14. Padres, 74-62, in the wild card for now.

25. Red Sox, 67-69 thanks to 8th in MLB in scoring and 9th in team OPS--and good managing

Edited September 6, 2022 by Maxbialystock

[Maxbialystock]

The second half Yankees won't beat anyone.

 

Thing is, when you give out an enormous contract, you need to look at the first half of the contract as the years they earn the money. Doing so on a SS who needs to be moved off position and who's showing a worrying drop in power is a recipe for disaster before the halfway point of the contract. If he is earning his money on a team that isn't very good, then it is a waste. Xander's FA timing and the sox org timing are off. The sox need another 2 years for their prospects to catch up to the bigs and either be major trade pieces or future cogs in a rising organization. You're losing so many starters and have essentially no pitching staff heading into next year without true top of the rotation level guys coming through the ranks. So why extend Bogaerts if he might be on the down swing

 

Do not disagree about the dangers of a long term contract--nor, I suspect, do Bloom and Henry.

 

They did, however, just give Story 6 years, and might offer Bogey, whose the same age, six years, which would run to age 36, by which he might have gone back to 3b even though others have stayed at SS at that age. Devers, 4 years younger, probably wants 12 years, but maybe the Sox can get him for 10, depending on total amount.

 

You are right about the pitching, of course.

 

But, if the Sox have learned nothing else recently, it's the absolute folly of paying "market value"--which means lots of money for lots of years--for an ace. See Price, Sale, Cole, et al. Compared to them, re-signing Bogey and Devers looks like a freaking bargain.

 

I exaggerate of course. Thus I go back to moonslav's stream of charts that suggest how Bloom can spend the freed-up payroll expected in 2023. None of them are simple and none assume big bucks for long years for anyone. In other words, no easy fixes.

[moonslav59]

Could not agree more. I like both of them a ton, and they have been good for the franchise and us fans.

 

But I just looked at MLB pitching, seasons to date. These are the teams with the best ERA's--

 

1. Dodgers, running away with the NL with 92 wins.

2. Astros, 87 wins, most in AL.

3. Rays, 75 wins, but could catch the Yankees despite so-so hitting.

4. Yankees, 81 wins, AL East lead.

5. Braves, 84 wins, right behind the Mets for NL East.

6. Mariners, 76 wins.

7. Mets, 85 wins, NL East lead

8. Guardians, 69-64, AL Central lead.

9. Cardinals, 79-56, NL Central lead.

10. Angels, 59-76.

11. Orioles, 71-64, their best season in a long time.

12. Jays, 75-59, their hitting is better

13. Brewers, 71-63, 2 games out of wild card.

14. Padres, 74-62, in the wild card for now.

25. Red Sox, 67-69 thanks to 8th in MLB in scoring and 9th in team OPS--and good managing

 

We could wait on Devers, and all he costs for 2023 is his arb number.

 

[moonslav59]

Do not disagree about the dangers of a long term contract--nor, I suspect, do Bloom and Henry.

 

They did, however, just give Story 6 years, and might offer Bogey, whose the same age, six years, which would run to age 36, by which he might have gone back to 3b even though others have stayed at SS at that age. Devers, 4 years younger, probably wants 12 years, but maybe the Sox can get him for 10, depending on total amount.

 

You are right about the pitching, of course.

 

But, if the Sox have learned nothing else recently, it's the absolute folly of paying "market value"--which means lots of money for lots of years--for an ace. See Price, Sale, Cole, et al. Compared to them, re-signing Bogey and Devers looks like a freaking bargain.

 

I exaggerate of course. Thus I go back to moonslav's stream of charts that suggest how Bloom can spend the freed-up payroll expected in 2023. None of them are simple and none assume big bucks for long years for anyone. In other words, no easy fixes.

 

We might be able to get Devers on 8-10 years, if we give him an opt out after 2-3 years.

[Maxbialystock]

We could wait on Devers, and all he costs for 2023 is his arb number.

 

 

I hope you realize my own druthers are to find a way to keep Bogey and Devers and to fix the pitching.

 

And the pitching is complicated by the fact that Sale, Wacha, Pivetta, and Bello just might be a good start on a rotation next year. If that comes to fruition--and you have mentioned that possibility-- the Sox should be looking for relievers.

[Maxbialystock]

We might be able to get Devers on 8-10 years, if we give him an opt out after 2-3 years.

 

Agree.

[Maxbialystock]

We could wait on Devers, and all he costs for 2023 is his arb number.

 

 

I forgot that. Indeed, Bloom's unwillingness to dump Devers or Bogey on 1 August suggests he and JH haven't given up on either one.

[moonslav59]

I forgot that. Indeed, Bloom's unwillingness to dump Devers or Bogey on 1 August suggests he and JH haven't given up on either one.

 

Well, Bogey had a no-trade clause, so that might have kept Bloom from doing what he preferred to do... or not.

 

[moonslav59]

I hope you realize my own druthers are to find a way to keep Bogey and Devers and to fix the pitching.

 

And the pitching is complicated by the fact that Sale, Wacha, Pivetta, and Bello just might be a good start on a rotation next year. If that comes to fruition--and you have mentioned that possibility-- the Sox should be looking for relievers.

 

I'd like to keep both, too, but unless I'm convince JH will open and keep open his wallet for the next 3-5 years, I don't see how it will work. If a reset is planned in the next 2-3 years, and remember, the penalties for year 3 are enormous, how can we field a competitive teams, unless the farm jolts us to prominence.

 

Bogey + Devers will be $55M+ on the tax line. Add Sale and we're at $80M, or more than 1/3 the player budget on just 3 players- one who may not even be playing.

 

Just taking 2023 and forgetting about future resets, how can it be done?

 

Bringing back Bogey and Devers fills no holes. At best, we stay the same, and likely will get worse beyond 2023 at SS/3B.

 

We'd have $25-30M to spend on SP, SP, SP, Closer, RP, RF, DH without even touching 1B or C, which are also question marks for 2023.

 

It's impossible, unless and until JH changes his tune.

[Bellhorn04]

Well, Bogey had a no-trade clause, so that might have kept Bloom from doing what he preferred to do... or not.

 

 

They gave Bogey advance notice they weren't going to trade him.

[moonslav59]

They gave Bogey advance notice they weren't going to trade him.

 

Yes. I think they realized it would be a PR nightmare and a huge disruption to the team to ask him if he would waive the No Trade Clause.

 

They might also be thinking they will try hard to extend him. (I just hope not at Devers' expense.)

[sk7326]

Yes. I think they realized it would be a PR nightmare and a huge disruption to the team to ask him if he would waive the No Trade Clause.

 

They might also be thinking they will try hard to extend him. (I just hope not at Devers' expense.)

 

4-6 win shortstops are hard to find - Bogaerts case is fairly strong in that regard ... particularly if they have some decent intel on the actual likelihood of bagging a Trea Turner.

[moonslav59]

4-6 win shortstops are hard to find - Bogaerts case is fairly strong in that regard ... particularly if they have some decent intel on the actual likelihood of bagging a Trea Turner.

 

One problem is, we could bring Bogey back, even on a hometown discount and still see a decline at SS over the term of the deal, and I mean from year one. I don’t expect it, in fact I think he’ll do better next year, but who know?

 

Who knows how Turner, Correa or Swanson will do either?

 

Hell, I wanted Baez, last year! yikes!!!

[Hugh2]

We might be able to get Devers on 8-10 years, if we give him an opt out after 2-3 years.

 

And those will be 2-3 of his best years. I’m all for signing Devers long term, but wouldn’t be completely dissatisfied with only 3 more years of him….better than 1

[moonslav59]

And those will be 2-3 of his best years. I’m all for signing Devers long term, but wouldn’t be completely dissatisfied with only 3 more years of him….better than 1

 

Do what it takes. Front end load it, even if that encourages an opt out. Just get me…

 

 

Devers forevers!

[jad]

And those will be 2-3 of his best years. I’m all for signing Devers long term, but wouldn’t be completely dissatisfied with only 3 more years of him….better than 1

 

Whether or not we are satisfied or not giving him 3 years is probably less important than whether he decides he would like to get market value for his services, which obviously will require far more than that.

[moonslav59]

Whether or not we are satisfied or not giving him 3 years is probably less important than whether he decides he would like to get market value for his services, which obviously will require far more than that.

 

3 year opt out not 3 year deal.

 

Maybe $250M/10 but $35M the first 3, then $22M x 7. He will likely opt out but this protects him from injury or early decline.