A Realistic View at 2023: Part I

[moonslav59]

I was hearing numbers like 19 tossed around here. I like 9 to 11 much better!

 

I think only Wink graduated, this year- maybe Seabold and Crawford, too?

 

Only Houck and Dalbec have been significant additions from the farm in a long time, unless you count Whitlock.

 

It takes time to build up a farm, and the rise of several DD farm additions has helped, a lot, and was rather unexpected.

 

The farm has now, or will very soon, reach the point where we can start expecting to have meaningful and cost-effective additions to the big club on a yearly basis, unless we trade a mess of them away out of desperation, this winter.

 

I'm all for one major trade involving prospects, like for Lopez from MIA, who has 2 years remaining, but I'm not sure Bloom sees something like that in the works, or it's against his philosophy. He must be feeling the pressure to win in 2023 while trying to remain balanced. IMO, I think Casas is the piece that can get us a key return, and even though 1B has been a weak area for quite sometime, finding capable 1Bmen should be an easier thing to do than a solid SP'er. Signing Abreu might be an option, or we could spend everywhere else and roll the dice, again, on Hosmer/Arroyo/Dalbec/Cordero (Jordan-Kavadas) going forward.

 

Here's another look at expected ETAs of our top prospects per soxprospects.com:

 

2023

2. Casas

3. Bello

7. Mata (mid)

8. Walter (late)

12. Murphy (mid)

13. Wong (back-up catcher?)

14. EValdez (mid) (2B/DH?)

23. Seabold

25. Downs

27. German (mid)

31. Kelly

 

2024

1. Mayer (late)

4. Yorke (mid)

6. Rafaela (I'd say maybe late '23)

26. W Abreu

29. Drohan

32. Binelas

35. R Hernandez

36. Koss

 

2025

10. Paulino

15. Wikelman

16. Jordan

20. Hickey

22. Kavadas

24. Bonaci

33. McDonough

37. Uberstine

 

2026

5. Bleis (might be our top prospect by next season)

9. Romero (looking real good, so far)

11. Anthony

19. Perales

21. Coffey

28. Rodriguez-Cruz

30. Brannon

34. Paez

 

 

[Hugh2]

I think you can add Anthony to the “looks really good so far”

 

I know we didnt get the best draft grades but early returns suggest we had a phenomenal draft.

 

Remember these guys grading a draft are the ones judging based on their own biased, flawed rankings. They really have no ideal.

[Maxbialystock]

I think you can add Anthony to the “looks really good so far”

 

I know we didnt get the best draft grades but early returns suggest we had a phenomenal draft.

 

Remember these guys grading a draft are the ones judging based on their own biased, flawed rankings. They really have no ideal.

 

I think Billy Beane says that in Moneyball--"they really have no idea."

[moonslav59]

I think you can add Anthony to the “looks really good so far”

 

I know we didnt get the best draft grades but early returns suggest we had a phenomenal draft.

 

Remember these guys grading a draft are the ones judging based on their own biased, flawed rankings. They really have no ideal.

 

Yes, although both sample sizes are small.

 

.839 Romero in 56 ABs FCL & Sal

.834 Anthony in 45 ABs FCL & Sal

 

Let's add a third name: Chase Meidroth: 1.029 in 64 ABs in FCL & Sal

 

Also, Brooks Brannon is 6 for 13 with 5BBs in FCL.

[moonslav59]

Will the Sox show interest in an of these free agents?

 

SP: deGrom, Wacha (QO?), Rodon, Kershaw

CF/RF: Judge, Nimmo, Kike, Haniger

2B: KWong, AFrazier

SS: Turner, Correa, Bogey, Swanson, Anderson

RP: Diaz, Jansen, Treinen, Fulmer, Ta.Rogers, Montero

1B: Rizzo, Bello, Abreu, Mancini, Aguilar, Y Gurriel, Belt

C: Contreras, Narvaez

[Fan_since_Boggs]

Now that Casas has been promoted, we know one piece of the puzzle for 2023.

 

1b: Casas

2b: Story

SS: Correa

3b: Devers

C: Wong/Mcguire

LF: Verdugo

CF: Hernandez (one year deal)

RF: ??? a platoon combination of T.Naquin and someone else?

DH: ??? but NOT JD Martinez; maybe the youngster Valdez? Or sign a veteran hitter to a one year contract?

[Old Red]

Now that Casas has been promoted, we know one piece of the puzzle for 2023.

 

1b: Casas

2b: Story

SS: Correa

3b: Devers

C: Wong/Mcguire

LF: Verdugo

CF: Hernandez (one year deal)

RF: ??? a platoon combination of T.Naquin and someone else?

DH: ??? but NOT JD Martinez; maybe the youngster Valdez? Or sign a veteran hitter to a one year contract?

Correa will not be coming to Boston except to play against the Red Sox.

[moonslav59]

Correa will not be coming to Boston except to play against the Red Sox.

 

I keep agreeing with you.

 

Is something wrong with me?

 

LOL.

[Old Red]

I keep agreeing with you.

 

Is something wrong with me?

 

LOL.[/quote

Way to much money for Boston’s taste.

[Fan_since_Boggs]

Now that Casas has been promoted, we know one piece of the puzzle for 2023.

 

1b: Casas

2b: Story

SS: Correa

3b: Devers

C: Wong/Mcguire

LF: Verdugo

CF: Hernandez (one year deal)

RF: ??? a platoon combination of T.Naquin and someone else?

DH: ??? but NOT JD Martinez; maybe the youngster Valdez? Or sign a veteran hitter to a one year contract?

 

Two additional notes:

Niko Kavadas takes over at DH in 2024.

Ceddanne Rafaela takes over in CF in 2024.

[moonslav59]

I keep agreeing with you.

 

Is something wrong with me?

 

LOL.[/quote

Way to much money for Boston’s taste.

 

Plus, he's hurt too much and has 3 seasons below .780 in his last 6.

[Old Red]

 

Plus, he's hurt too much and has 3 seasons below .780 in his last 6.

Obviously he didn’t get a long term contract to his liking last year, and who’s to say he will after this year.

[oldtimer]

Correa will not be coming to Boston except to play against the Red Sox.

 

 

 

I would pick up a right handed 1st baseman/DH to platoon with Casas if he needs it. Cron or Mancini would be my choices. We have Hosmer who can also fill in a both but I would go for a right hander with power.

 

If not Bogey, Story to short and Arroyo to 2nd.

 

We need a front line catcher go go with either Wong or McGuire. Moon wants Stallings which is a reasonable choice.

 

I'm ambivalent on Hernandez in CF. If we can sign Nimmo it would lift the team. Refsnyder and be our backup outfielder. Not sure if we want to stick with Kike.

 

Still need a RF with quality.

 

[moonslav59]

I would pick up a right handed 1st baseman/DH to platoon with Casas if he needs it. Cron or Mancini would be my choices. We have Hosmer who can also fill in a both but I would go for a right hander with power.

 

If not Bogey, Story to short and Arroyo to 2nd.

 

We need a front line catcher go go with either Wong or McGuire. Moon wants Stallings which is a reasonable choice.

 

I'm ambivalent on Hernandez in CF. If we can sign Nimmo it would lift the team. Refsnyder and be our backup outfielder. Not sure if we want to stick with Kike.

 

Still need a RF with quality.

 

 

If they think McGuire is like Stallings, I'm fine with McGuire/Wong, next year with RHern and Cottam (Hickey) in the pipeline.

[notin]

I would pick up a right handed 1st baseman/DH to platoon with Casas if he needs it. Cron or Mancini would be my choices. We have Hosmer who can also fill in a both but I would go for a right hander with power.

 

If not Bogey, Story to short and Arroyo to 2nd.

 

We need a front line catcher go go with either Wong or McGuire. Moon wants Stallings which is a reasonable choice.

 

I'm ambivalent on Hernandez in CF. If we can sign Nimmo it would lift the team. Refsnyder and be our backup outfielder. Not sure if we want to stick with Kike.

 

Still need a RF with quality.

 

 

Hosmer is under contract for next season…

[moonslav59]

Hosmer is under contract for next season…

 

He said, "We have Hosmer... but..."

[notin]

He said, "We have Hosmer... but..."

 

I just don’t see the Sox adding a third first baseman. They’d have to unload Hosmer first…

[moonslav59]

I just don’t see the Sox adding a third first baseman. They’d have to unload Hosmer first…

 

I don't either, even if we trade Casas!

[Old Red]

I don't either, even if we trade Casas!

 

I don’t see Casas being traded anywhere in the foreseeable future. All the speculations on what Bloom is going to do on here is good reading, and some good acquisitions mentioned at that, but I think the two biggest questions have to be answered 1st, and that’s Bogey, and Raffy. If you can’t sign Raffy after this year do you trade him, or just let him play out his last year. Either money locked up, or money to spend.

[dgalehouse]

Why in the world would you trade Casas? I have got to get out of here. This place is getting too crazy.

[moonslav59]

I seriously doubt we trade Casas, either. My point was that even if we trade him, our 1B situation is better than CF, SP, RP, RF and 2B/SS.

 

Now, back to trading Casas, I'm not for handing him away for nothing. Thinking of trading someone does not equate to "giving up on him" or "undervaluing him." That's just a bias some poster seems to have while feigning objectivity.

 

IMO, we will likely not have a big enough budget to sign 8 more than capable FAs (CF, SP1 or 3, Closer, RF, 2B or SS, Set Up, SP 4 or 5 and RP or C), so we will have to trade a prospect or two to fill at least one slot. To get quality, you have to trade quality. We are not getting Lopez for Dalbec, Downs and Duran. And this loops back to my first point: what position is currently best suited to go with what we have, now?

 

One can argue Arroyo at 2B, despite his injury history.

 

One could argue RF with Refsnyder or Dugo (with Duran in LF)

 

or

 

One could argue 1B with Hosmer, Arroyo, Dalbec/Cordero in AAA (assuming we fill 2B, CF and RF.)

 

It's not a crazy concept to look at the big picture and at least consider all the options.

[notin]

Why in the world would you trade Casas? I have got to get out of here. This place is getting too crazy.

 

I didn’t think the Sox would trade Benintendi either. I will probably keep trying to predict Bloom, but I doubt I’ll ever be right

Edited September 4, 2022 by notin

[moonslav59]

Of course, Bloom could have had the foresight to trade away every player that was about to decline from 2021 to 2022, but let's break down how many and by how much the players declined- Bloom players vs inherited players:

 

Inherited:

 

+.100 Vaz (traded)

+.070 Duran (to .648)

-.001 Devers

-.017 Bogarts

-.023 Arroyo

-.097 JD M

-.148 Dalbec

-.171 Plawecki

 

'21 Renfroe vs '22 JBJ

-.238

 

Bloom's Additions (Carry-overs)

+.217 Cordero

-.046 Verdugo

-.146 Kike

-.643 Arauz

-.843 Shaw

 

Bloom's Additions (New to 2022)

.879 Refsnyder

.816 McGuire

.782 Ja. Davis

.768 Pham

.732 Story

.611 Hosmer

 

Lost to Free Agency or cut:

.957 Schwarber

.915 Iggy

.597 Santana

.567 Marwin

,549 Chavis (traded)

[oldtimer]

I seriously doubt we trade Casas, either. My point was that even if we trade him, our 1B situation is better than CF, SP, RP, RF and 2B/SS.

 

Now, back to trading Casas, I'm not for handing him away for nothing. Thinking of trading someone does not equate to "giving up on him" or "undervaluing him." That's just a bias some poster seems to have while feigning objectivity.

 

IMO, we will likely not have a big enough budget to sign 8 more than capable FAs (CF, SP1 or 3, Closer, RF, 2B or SS, Set Up, SP 4 or 5 and RP or C), so we will have to trade a prospect or two to fill at least one slot. To get quality, you have to trade quality. We are not getting Lopez for Dalbec, Downs and Duran. And this loops back to my first point: what position is currently best suited to go with what we have, now?

 

One can argue Arroyo at 2B, despite his injury history.

 

One could argue RF with Refsnyder or Dugo (with Duran in LF)

 

or

 

One could argue 1B with Hosmer, Arroyo, Dalbec/Cordero in AAA (assuming we fill 2B, CF and RF.)

 

It's not a crazy concept to look at the big picture and at least consider all the options.

 

My suggestion is to get a pro right hand batter with some pop capable of platooning with Casas should he need that. We will also need a DH with JDM most probably leaving. Hosmer can play first as well but his bat is really not suitable for the DH role. Cron could do both as could Mancini and Mancini is also still capable of playing in the outfield. Casas may be a future star, stay tuned but he is still a young rookie and we need to take steps to have a backup plan. I don't like Arroyo there so the suggestion I made was in the spirit of improving the team with a 2 to 3 year acquisition.

[moonslav59]

My suggestion is to get a pro right hand batter with some pop capable of platooning with Casas should he need that. We will also need a DH with JDM most probably leaving. Hosmer can play first as well but his bat is really not suitable for the DH role. Cron could do both as could Mancini and Mancini is also still capable of playing in the outfield. Casas may be a future star, stay tuned but he is still a young rookie and we need to take steps to have a backup plan. I don't like Arroyo there so the suggestion I made was in the spirit of improving the team with a 2 to 3 year acquisition.

 

If anything, it might be a 1 year signing. Maybe someone who can play RF/DH would be a better fit. Mancini can play 1B/RF/DH. He's a great clubhouse guy, too, but he won't go for 1 year.

 

I don't think a big expenditure should got for a 1B/DH type with Kavadas, Valdez, Casas and others in the system.

[notin]

I seriously doubt we trade Casas, either. My point was that even if we trade him, our 1B situation is better than CF, SP, RP, RF and 2B/SS.

 

Now, back to trading Casas, I'm not for handing him away for nothing. Thinking of trading someone does not equate to "giving up on him" or "undervaluing him." That's just a bias some poster seems to have while feigning objectivity.

 

IMO, we will likely not have a big enough budget to sign 8 more than capable FAs (CF, SP1 or 3, Closer, RF, 2B or SS, Set Up, SP 4 or 5 and RP or C), so we will have to trade a prospect or two to fill at least one slot. To get quality, you have to trade quality. We are not getting Lopez for Dalbec, Downs and Duran. And this loops back to my first point: what position is currently best suited to go with what we have, now?

 

One can argue Arroyo at 2B, despite his injury history.

 

One could argue RF with Refsnyder or Dugo (with Duran in LF)

 

or

 

One could argue 1B with Hosmer, Arroyo, Dalbec/Cordero in AAA (assuming we fill 2B, CF and RF.)

 

It's not a crazy concept to look at the big picture and at least consider all the options.

 

Catcher and infield and probably DH might all already be in the organization. Same with most if not all of the rotation and most if not all of the bullpen. Also the bench.

 

Now the outfield is a different matter…

[moonslav59]

Catcher and infield and probably DH might all already be in the organization. Same with most if not all of the rotation and most if not all of the bullpen. Also the bench.

 

Now the outfield is a different matter…

 

I doubt we leave every eak slot to the kids, but I agree the OF is the major need (with an ace). The rest might be one year deals to bridge to the kids.

[notin]

Why in the world would you trade Casas? I have got to get out of here. This place is getting too crazy.

 

Then stay off the 2023 thread.

 

You can’t make post after post after post about how awful this team is and how the GM should be fired for not winning a WS in his first three years, and then freak out whenever some suggests a trade, too.

[moonslav59]

Then stay off the 2023 thread.

 

You can’t make post after post after post about how awful this team is and how the GM should be fired for not winning a WS in his first three years, and then freak out whenever some suggests a trade, too.

 

I guess he wouldn't trade Casas straight up for Alcantara. Just the thought of trading Casas is crazy.

[Old Red]

Then stay off the 2023 thread.

 

You can’t make post after post after post about how awful this team is and how the GM should be fired for not winning a WS in his first three years, and then freak out whenever some suggests a trade, too.

I don’t think not winning a WS was a complaint, but being in last place in the Div with a LOSING record was. As usual a little exaggeration goes a long way.