A Realistic View at 2022: Part III

[JDavis76]

That's what I was getting at.

 

Let's say #6 team has a 31% chance, and we have a 30% chance, and everyone in between has less than 30%, are we really all that bad off, by the odds? We might be 1% behind the odds-on favorite of making the 6 slot.

 

That still doesn't change their odds at only 30%

[moonslav59]

That still doesn't change their odds at only 30%

 

No, but if the odds favor us more than any other team, it's not as bad as 30% looks.

[Nick]

Ryan Fitzgerald, once called ‘baby Andrew Benintendi’ by Red Sox teammates, can taste MLB call-up after 8 homers with WooSox

I saw him on TV during spring training, love his bat.

 

Instead of Fitzgerald padding his stat sheet with monster games, the Red Sox want him to do everything on a more consistent basis. If he does so, he’ll be knocking even louder on door to the major league clubhouse.

 

“I’ve been closer every year,” Fitzgerald said. “There are a lot of things out of my control, so I’ve got to just try to keep hitting home runs.”

 

Gotta love his attitude......

 

Is it time to rethink strikeouts when a guy is hitting bombs? Look what singles are getting us.

[JDavis76]

No, but if the odds favor us more than any other team, it's not as bad as 30% looks.

 

30% is just that, 30%.

[moonslav59]

30% is just that, 30%.

 

Yes, but what's better?

 

Team A 38%

Tean B 34%

Team Red Sox 30%

 

or

 

Team Red Sox 30%

Team A 25%

Team B 25%

Team C 20%

 

The second scenarion, we'd be the faves at making the playoffs. Yes, it does not change the 30%, but I'd feel better knowing the odds are we make it more than anyone else.

[Old Red]

Yes, but what's better?

 

Team A 38%

Tean B 34%

Team Red Sox 30%

 

or

 

Team Red Sox 30%

Team A 25%

Team B 25%

Team C 20%

 

The second scenarion, we'd be the faves at making the playoffs. Yes, it does not change the 30%, but I'd feel better knowing the odds are we make it more than anyone else.

 

Right now the only team the Red Sox have to worry about is the O’s who won again today, because if they can’t get by the O’s I’ll give them 0%.

[Nick]

Can't worry the playoffs.

 

Gotta get back to .500.

 

FOCUS ON WINNING EACH SERIES. NOTHING ELSE MATTERS.

[oldtimer]

No doubt, but I'd rather wait to have those kinds of talks. It's mid May.

It's nearly mid May now and things aren't improving. I am hopeful that Kike will find his swing soon. I doubt Dalbec will every be a consistent hitter and JBJ is giving about what was expected of him, which is okay on a team with 5 or 6 strong hitters. Cordero is another weak hitter. Bloom really only got Story this winter and he is still adjusting. Time to consider moving Dalbec down and finding better hitting bench options.

[JDavis76]

Yes, but what's better?

 

Team A 38%

Tean B 34%

Team Red Sox 30%

 

or

 

Team Red Sox 30%

Team A 25%

Team B 25%

Team C 20%

 

The second scenarion, we'd be the faves at making the playoffs. Yes, it does not change the 30%, but I'd feel better knowing the odds are we make it more than anyone else.

 

Regardless of what other team's odds are, the sox are still at 30% no matter how you slice it.

 

30% is 30%

[moonslav59]

Ryan Fitzgerald, once called ‘baby Andrew Benintendi’ by Red Sox teammates, can taste MLB call-up after 8 homers with WooSox

I saw him on TV during spring training, love his bat.

 

Instead of Fitzgerald padding his stat sheet with monster games, the Red Sox want him to do everything on a more consistent basis. If he does so, he’ll be knocking even louder on door to the major league clubhouse.

 

“I’ve been closer every year,” Fitzgerald said. “There are a lot of things out of my control, so I’ve got to just try to keep hitting home runs.”

 

Gotta love his attitude......

 

Is it time to rethink strikeouts when a guy is hitting bombs? Look what singles are getting us.

 

There are more and more guys who can hit and or get on base, but still K a lot. As long as they can sustain a decent offense, K's never bothered me.

 

I get the move the runner over idea, and that does have value, but maybe less GIDPs balances some of that out.

 

I'd love to see Fitzy get a chance, but I'm not ready to write off Arroyo, just yet, and I also think Cordero needs a long look, before giving up on him, too.

[moonslav59]

Regardless of what other team's odds are, the sox are still at 30% no matter how you slice it.

 

30% is 30%

 

How many times do I have to say I get it?

 

I know it's the same probability, but people win elections with 30%. As long as you beat everyone else, you are the winner (unless they have run-offs.)

 

I'm just saying I'd rather be at 30% with no other team ahead of us than 30% with 2 teams having better odds. I'm not implying it changes the 30% probability.

[JDavis76]

How many times do I have to say I get it?

 

I know it's the same probability, but people win elections with 30%. As long as you beat everyone else, you are the winner (unless they have run-offs.)

 

I'm just saying I'd rather be at 30% with no other team ahead of us than 30% with 2 teams having better odds. I'm not implying it changes the 30% probability.

 

The updated odds on Fangraphs puts the sox at 20% with 8 teams ahead of them.

[moonslav59]

The updated odds on Fangraphs puts the sox at 20% with 8 teams ahead of them.

 

That's about what I expected. Are we ahead of the O's?

[Bellhorn04]

How many times do I have to say I get it?

 

I know it's the same probability, but people win elections with 30%. As long as you beat everyone else, you are the winner (unless they have run-offs.)

 

I'm just saying I'd rather be at 30% with no other team ahead of us than 30% with 2 teams having better odds. I'm not implying it changes the 30% probability.

 

In MLB this year, the average team has about a 40% probability (12/30).

 

So 30% is below average. It's all relative, right?

[JDavis76]

That's about what I expected. Are we ahead of the O's?

 

Yes, they have the orioles listed at 1%. Just higher than the sox are the Guardians at 21% and then it jumps to the twinkies at 49%

[moonslav59]

Yes, they have the orioles listed at 1%. Just higher than the sox are the Guardians at 21% and then it jumps to the twinkies at 49%

 

So, the last slot teams on the outside looking in, as of now are...

 

39% MN

22% CLE

21% BOS

 

The Rays are in the #6 slot at 61%

 

I would not be surprised to see the Sox pass both these teams, by the odds, at some point this season, but then again, I would not be surprised, if we don't.

Edited May 12, 2022 by moonslav59

[JDavis76]

So, the last slot teams on the outside looking in, as of now are...

 

39% MN

22% CLE

21% BOS

 

The Rays are in the #6 slot at 61%

 

I would not be surprised to see the Sox pass both these teams, by the odds, at some point this season, but then again, I would not be surprised, if we don't.

 

Fangraphs has the twinkies at 49%, not 39% and the rays at 59%, not 61%.

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/standings/playoff-odds

 

If my 4+ decades of watching baseball has taught me anything, it's to not be surprised by surprises.

[moonslav59]

Fangraphs has the twinkies at 49%, not 39% and the rays at 59%, not 61%.

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/standings/playoff-odds

 

If my 4+ decades of watching baseball has taught me anything, it's to not be surprised by surprises.

 

I'm looking at make playoff odds:

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/standings/playoff-odds

[JDavis76]

I'm looking at make playoff odds:

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/standings/playoff-odds

 

My eyes are bad but that looks like the same link, when I refreshed the page on my computer it updated to the odds you posted.

 

I guess some games may have just ended that changed the odds.

[moonslav59]

My eyes are bad but that looks like the same link, when I refreshed the page on my computer it updated to the odds you posted.

 

I guess some games may have just ended that changed the odds.

 

I think it's the second time I ever visited this page. Strange a team like MN can drop 10% in a day.

[harmony]

Despite heightened expectations, the postseason odds for the floundering Seattle Mariners are down to 16 percent as the M's embark on a tough 10-game road trip against two good teams and the Boston Red Sox.

[JDavis76]

I think it's the second time I ever visited this page. Strange a team like MN can drop 10% in a day.

 

They lost 2 to houston today

[JDavis76]

With both teams winning tonight with the sox idle, the Yanks and the orioles managed to put more distance between themselves and the sox.

[Key2Delock]

The only MLB teams further away from playoff spots than the 11-20 Red Sox (12 games behind) are the 9-23 Tigers (14.5 games behind) and 8-24 Reds (13.5 games behind). Only the Royals (.345), Nationals (.333), Tigers (.281), and Reds (.250) have worse winning percentages than the Red Sox (.355).

 

If MLB were like the English Premier League where Liverpool F. C., also owned by Fenway Sports Group, has come close to winning the championship with two matches left in the season (but probably will finish second in the league), then the Red Sox would be close to what’s called the “Relegation Zone” where three teams at the bottom of the EPL's 20-team top division are dropped to a lower division in the following season.

[Bellhorn04]

The only MLB teams further away from playoff spots than the 11-20 Red Sox (12 games behind) are the 9-23 Tigers (14.5 games behind) and 8-24 Reds (13.5 games behind). Only the Royals (.345), Nationals (.333), Tigers (.281), and Reds (.250) have worse winning percentages than the Red Sox (.355).

 

To be precise, the Red Sox are 5.5 games out of a playoff spot. 12 behind in the division.

[JDavis76]

To be precise, the Red Sox are 5.5 games out of a playoff spot. 12 behind in the division.

 

To be precise, there are 12 teams ahead of the sox for 6 playoff spots.

[Bellhorn04]

To be precise, there are 12 teams ahead of the sox for 6 playoff spots.

 

Irrelevant at this early juncture.

[Old Red]

To be precise, the Red Sox are 5.5 games out of a playoff spot. 12 behind in the division.

 

At present time in the famous words of Tony Mass the Red Sox Blow, and Suck. After 31 games the Red Sox are 9 games under 500. I repeat 9 games under 500. and some are worried about a possible playoff spot. If this team ever gets to just playing 500 ball, which at this point doesn’t look to promising then I’ll start to think about playoffs. Playoffs? Did someone say playoffs? One more time 9 games under 500, and this team has been listless since opening day, and yes there is plenty of blame to go around starting at the top with JH, Bloom, and Cora, and down to the players.

[Bellhorn04]

At present time in the famous words of Tony Mass the Red Sox Blow, and Suck. After 31 games the Red Sox are 9 games under 500. I repeat 9 games under 500. and some are worried about a possible playoff spot. If this team ever gets to just playing 500 ball, which at this point doesn’t look to promising then I’ll start to think about playoffs. Playoffs? Did someone say playoffs? One more time 9 games under 500, and this team has been listless since opening day, and yes there is plenty of blame to go around starting at the top with JH, Bloom, and Cora, and down to the players.

 

I could care less what Tony M******* ever says. He just knows how to state the obvious. It doesn't take much of a baseball mind to figure out that 11-20 ain't good.

[JDavis76]

Irrelevant at this early juncture.

 

If so, then so is posting that they are 5.5 games out of a playoff spot.

 

How about this then, the red sox are one of six teams currently on pace to lose 100 games or more.