Wacha phenomenon

[jacksonianmarch]

Michael Wacha has been dynamite in his first 5 starts in Boston. The question is, has he regained his status as a front line starter like he was in StL or is this some smoke and mirrors s***.

 

Wacha's best season was in 2017 when his average FB was 95.1. He slipped into the 93 range and lost effectiveness. Last year, he bumped up to 93.8 but this year is down to 92.9. So he isn't experiencing a velocity spike

 

When Wacha was at his best, he was a 8.5K/9IP player. Last year he was near 9. This year, just 6.58. So no change in K rate

 

Wacha's best season saw a BB rate of 2.99/9IP. Last year was down to 2.24. This year, he is at 3.81, near his career high.

 

So if his velo isnt spiking and he isn't King more or BBing less, why is he so damn dominant?

 

Look at two stats here. Wacha's career HR rate is 1.12 per 9IP. From 19-21, it was at 2.0 average. This year, it is 0.69/9IP. Is he getting more ground balls? Yes, 5% more GB's, albeit right at his career AVG. FB% has stayed the same. LD% has dropped from 25-20%. He's avoiding hard contact

 

Second one is BABIP. Career BABIP is right at .300. This year, he's at .146. So you know what this means? If he continues on this run he is on and the sox drop from contention, it would behoove Bloom to trade him ASAP before the cat jumps out of the bag.

[mvp 78]

Why would you put a cat in the bag, you monster?

[Old Red]

Somebody on here kept calling Wacha Whack a after he was signed, and so far boy have they been wrong.

[mvp 78]

Wacha's hard hit % is 35.3 which is basically what it was from 2015-19.

 

His xERA is 3.15, so it'd be dumb to not expect some sort of regression.

 

One of the bigger changes is the pitches he's throwing. His cutter had a +12 run value (yuck) and was his worst pitch last year. He's almost cut it's usage in half. Probably needs to cut it even more since it has a hard hit % of 53.8 this season and has a .624 SLG. Cut it with the Cutter!

[moonslav59]

Wacha's hard hit % is 35.3 which is basically what it was from 2015-19.

 

His xERA is 3.15, so it'd be dumb to not expect some sort of regression.

 

One of the bigger changes is the pitches he's throwing. His cutter had a +12 run value (yuck) and was his worst pitch last year. He's almost cut it's usage in half. Probably needs to cut it even more since it has a hard hit % of 53.8 this season and has a .624 SLG. Cut it with the Cutter!

 

BAbip:

 

.306 2013-2021

 

.162 2022

 

[jacksonianmarch]

Big picture here is he’s the Sox version of Shawn Chacon from 2006. The guy was a magician. K rate sucked. Walk rate wasn’t good. He just happened to have that magical season with the Yanks where every bounce went right. Wheels fell off the following season. When you’ve got a guy who’s literally lucky to be performing at that level, you should find a way to cash in on it, especially if you fall out of contention

[Bellhorn04]

Big picture here is he’s the Sox version of Shawn Chacon from 2006. The guy was a magician. K rate sucked. Walk rate wasn’t good. He just happened to have that magical season with the Yanks where every bounce went right. Wheels fell off the following season. When you’ve got a guy who’s literally lucky to be performing at that level, you should find a way to cash in on it, especially if you fall out of contention

 

Thanks doc.

[notin]

Somebody on here kept calling Wacha Whack a after he was signed, and so far boy have they been wrong.

 

If nothing else, it is impressive how you call yourself out. And do so without being prompted…

[Bellhorn04]

If nothing else, it is impressive how you call yourself out. And do so without being prompted…

 

Although he's never let up on "Flintstone Schwaber".

[notin]

Michael Wacha has been dynamite in his first 5 starts in Boston. The question is, has he regained his status as a front line starter like he was in StL or is this some smoke and mirrors s***.

 

Wacha's best season was in 2017 when his average FB was 95.1. He slipped into the 93 range and lost effectiveness. Last year, he bumped up to 93.8 but this year is down to 92.9. So he isn't experiencing a velocity spike

 

When Wacha was at his best, he was a 8.5K/9IP player. Last year he was near 9. This year, just 6.58. So no change in K rate

 

Wacha's best season saw a BB rate of 2.99/9IP. Last year was down to 2.24. This year, he is at 3.81, near his career high.

 

So if his velo isnt spiking and he isn't King more or BBing less, why is he so damn dominant?

 

Look at two stats here. Wacha's career HR rate is 1.12 per 9IP. From 19-21, it was at 2.0 average. This year, it is 0.69/9IP. Is he getting more ground balls? Yes, 5% more GB's, albeit right at his career AVG. FB% has stayed the same. LD% has dropped from 25-20%. He's avoiding hard contact

 

Second one is BABIP. Career BABIP is right at .300. This year, he's at .146. So you know what this means? If he continues on this run he is on and the sox drop from contention, it would behoove Bloom to trade him ASAP before the cat jumps out of the bag.

 

 

Shouldn’t the Yankees do the same thing with Clay Holmes and Willy Peralta?

[Old Red]

If nothing else, it is impressive how you call yourself out. And do so without being prompted…

 

I’m guilty as charged, and I admit it.

[moonslav59]

Although he's never let up on "Flintstone Schwaber".

 

...and all the ghost posters clamoring to "extend Flintstone Schwarber for life."

[Old Red]

...and all the ghost posters clamoring to "extend Flintstone Schwarber for life."

 

Another word from Mr I. Look it up from one of the game threads of the post season last year. It is there in black, and white.

[Old Red]

Although he's never let up on "Flintstone Schwaber".

 

Do you know where the Flintstone reference came from? A Schwaber groupie for a overrated player for a short time in Boston. He even made a routine play at 1B one time. You just take that the Flintstone Schwaber is meant to be a bad reference, because as one of the overwhelming traits on here is to over analyze something.

Edited May 4, 2022 by Old Red

[dgalehouse]

Big picture here is he’s the Sox version of Shawn Chacon from 2006. The guy was a magician. K rate sucked. Walk rate wasn’t good. He just happened to have that magical season with the Yanks where every bounce went right. Wheels fell off the following season. When you’ve got a guy who’s literally lucky to be performing at that level, you should find a way to cash in on it, especially if you fall out of contention

We will have to add Wacha to your list of guys the Sox should unload.

[Swiharts Ghost]

Wacha is unquestionably a huge surprise.Chump Change Chaim did well on Wachovia .

[jacksonianmarch]

Wacha to the IL with a rib injury

[Old Red]

Wacha to the IL with a rib injury

 

Hanging around Chris Frail to much?

[a700hitter]

Wacha to the IL with a rib injury

perfect. This had to be expected.

[moonslav59]

It's a snake bite season, for sure.

[jacksonianmarch]

Wacha scratched with dead arm. No word on an IL stay

[Maxbialystock]

Wacha scratched with dead arm. No word on an IL stay

 

Not on the IL yet. Apparently no structural damage detected.

[moonslav59]

Not on the IL yet. Apparently no structural damage detected.

 

Hopefully, he recovers quickly and fully.

[Maxbialystock]

Wacha scratched with dead arm. No word on an IL stay

 

Cora announced today he expects Wacha to avoid the IL. However, pitching being what it is, he could still go on the IL.

[Old Red]

Cora announced today he expects Wacha to avoid the IL. However, pitching being what it is, he could still go on the IL.

 

If this injury is anything like all the other injuries from Frail on down it will take a lot longer than expected.

[Larry Cook]

Pivetta and four triple a starters, who would have thought?

 

Winkowski - has performed above and beyond to this point,

Seabold - is capable when he makes his pitches.

Crawford - a lot like hill. Hit or miss. But the misses are big!

Bello - really hoping he is a pure stud.

[Maxbialystock]

If this injury is anything like all the other injuries from Frail on down it will take a lot longer than expected.

 

That has definitely been the trend this season for the Sox. We can only hope that Wacha will recover the use of his arm for ordinary living tasks.

[Maxbialystock]

Pivetta and four triple a starters, who would have thought?

 

Winkowski - has performed above and beyond to this point,

Seabold - is capable when he makes his pitches.

Crawford - a lot like hill. Hit or miss. But the misses are big!

Bello - really hoping he is a pure stud.

 

It's a brave new world.

 

Seabold went 4.2 vs. the Jays and gave up 7 runs, then 4.0 vs. the Cubs and 1 run.

 

Winckowski pitched 3 vs. the Orioles in April for 4 runs. June: 3 starts, 17 innings, ERA 2.12. July: 6 innings, 1 run.

 

Crawford has had three good outings (3 IP, 0 runs vs the Rays, 5 IP, 0 runs vs Seattle and 5.1 IP, 0 runs vs. the Rays), and 8 others that brought his season ERA to 5.04.

 

All in all, not too shabby by the rookies.

 

Now comes Bello, age 23, with 14 starts, 85 IP, and an ERA of 2.33 this year in AA and AAA.

[moonslav59]

Pivetta and four triple a starters, who would have thought?

 

Winkowski - has performed above and beyond to this point,

Seabold - is capable when he makes his pitches.

Crawford - a lot like hill. Hit or miss. But the misses are big!

Bello - really hoping he is a pure stud.

 

The fact that we are still slotted in the #1 WC position with 80% of our rotation hurt says something about the depth this team has added over the last 2-3 years.

 

It's also a bit surprising to see Duran and Refsnyder ahead of Bogey and JD in OPS and RBI's per PA, but with all these sample sizes are rather small.

 

[Kimmi]

The fact that we are still slotted in the #1 WC position with 80% of our rotation hurt says something about the depth this team has added over the last 2-3 years.

 

It's also a bit surprising to see Duran and Refsnyder ahead of Bogey and JD in OPS and RBI's per PA, but with all these sample sizes are rather small.

 

 

Our rotation, compared to our Opening Day projected rotation, is in shambles. And yet, the rotation has been holding its own.

 

It's way too soon to know how these youngsters will do, but these are exciting times for Red Sox fans.