2022 Bullpen Thread

[moonslav59]

Kike has a .900 OPS in 194 postseason PA's.

 

Yes, I know. He had many heroic efforts with the Dodger, too.

 

He also hit and fielded very well down the stretch of 2021, when others were struggling.

 

In 2021, he went 20-49 with 5 HRs and 10 XBHs. (9 runs & 9 RBI in 11 gms) He even had a BB, HBP and SF.

 

He had an .874 OPS after June 19th, and if you add the post season numbers, he'd be over .900 for a 90+ game sample size.

 

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Kike has a .900 OPS in 194 postseason PA's.

 

There are plenty of ways to argue for or against the concept of "clutch."

 

People who crunch numbers can offer quantitative data to show that good players are usually good, while bad guys are pretty much lousy.

 

People who play the game, at various levels for most of their lives, can offer qualitative data to swear that certain good players are better than other good players in the biggest moments.

 

Here is the list of big leaguers with at least 194 postseason PA in the divisional era. Note there's only one Hall of Famer -- Big Papi -- but a lot of future or borderline HOFers.

 

1 Carlos Beltrán 1.021

2 Albert Pujols 1.007

3 Nelson Cruz .979

4 Lance Berkman .949

5 David Ortiz .947

6 Manny Ramírez .937

7 Barry Bonds .936

8 Hideki Matsui .933

9 David Freese .919

10 Fred McGriff .917

11 Steve Garvey .910

12 Jose Altuve .907

13 Kiké Hernández .900

[moonslav59]

There are plenty of ways to argue for or against the concept of "clutch."

 

People who crunch numbers can offer quantitative data to show that good players are usually good, while bad guys are pretty much lousy.

 

People who play the game, at various levels for most of their lives, can offer qualitative data to swear that certain good players are better than other good players in the biggest moments.

 

Here is the list of big leaguers with at least 194 postseason PA in the divisional era. Note there's only one Hall of Famer -- Big Papi -- but a lot of future or borderline HOFers.

 

1 Carlos Beltrán 1.021

2 Albert Pujols 1.007

3 Nelson Cruz .979

4 Lance Berkman .949

5 David Ortiz .947

6 Manny Ramírez .937

7 Barry Bonds .936

8 Hideki Matsui .933

9 David Freese .919

10 Fred McGriff .917

11 Steve Garvey .910

12 Jose Altuve .907

13 Kiké Hernández .900

 

Comparing "in the clutch" to their not "in the clutch" numbers might be more revealing and helps factor out the "good hitter hit better" aspect.

 

When you compare reggie Jackson and Papi's clutch numbers vs non clutch, the differential is not so great.

 

That being said, Papi and Reggie certainly had more than their "fair share" of huge moments, as one would also expect from a few players with randomly produced numbers.

[mvp 78]

Not to mention no one thinks Binelas was a worthwhile get in that deal because he posted a .630 OPS in AA at age 23. Renfroe himself posted a .670 OPS in AA at age 23 and apparently he’s the second coming of Dwight Evans. Yes that comp has been made on this board!

 

That deal is not over yet…

 

Dwight Evans only hit 13 HR's as a 23 year old! Renfroe has had 5 seasons with 25 or more HR's at age 30. At age 30, Evans only had one! If they replaced Renfroe with Evans, where would the power come from?!?

[mvp 78]

Kike has a .900 OPS in 194 postseason PA's.

 

LOL random, néxt sériés hé'll bé a chokér.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Comparing "in the clutch" to their not "in the clutch" numbers might be more revealing and helps factor out the "good hitter hit better" aspect.

 

When you compare reggie Jackson and Papi's clutch numbers vs non clutch, the differential is not so great.

 

That being said, Papi and Reggie certainly had more than their "fair share" of huge moments, as one would also expect from a few players with randomly produced numbers.

 

All I'll say on this is ask teammates of say, ARod or George Brett if they ever considered their postseason games as "random."

[moonslav59]

All I'll say on this is ask teammates of say, ARod or George Brett if they ever considered their postseason games as "random."

 

I'm just saying, if you fed the numbers of every player into a computer, and it randomly spit out results, you'd fine better hitters do better in the clutch and a few would over-perform while a few would underperform- more and more as the sample sizes get smaller. The final spread sheet would mirror reality.

 

Whether that is proof that clutch is not a repeatable skillset is up for debate, but it sure as hell does not go against the anti- clutch is skill crowd.

[notin]

All I'll say on this is ask teammates of say, ARod or George Brett if they ever considered their postseason games as "random."

 

Can we also ask them if all they possession plate appearances were “clutch”?

[moonslav59]

Can we also ask them if all they possession plate appearances were “clutch”?

 

Is a late inning, game-winning HR in late September for a team in a close race for a playoff spot, more or less clutch than a 3rd inning playoff HR with a team ahead 13-2 in the game and 3-0 in the series?

[Bellhorn04]

There are plenty of ways to argue for or against the concept of "clutch."

 

People who crunch numbers can offer quantitative data to show that good players are usually good, while bad guys are pretty much lousy.

 

People who play the game, at various levels for most of their lives, can offer qualitative data to swear that certain good players are better than other good players in the biggest moments.

 

Here is the list of big leaguers with at least 194 postseason PA in the divisional era. Note there's only one Hall of Famer -- Big Papi -- but a lot of future or borderline HOFers.

 

1 Carlos Beltrán 1.021

2 Albert Pujols 1.007

3 Nelson Cruz .979

4 Lance Berkman .949

5 David Ortiz .947

6 Manny Ramírez .937

7 Barry Bonds .936

8 Hideki Matsui .933

9 David Freese .919

10 Fred McGriff .917

11 Steve Garvey .910

12 Jose Altuve .907

13 Kiké Hernández .900

 

I feel perfectly comfortable calling Ortiz and Schilling clutch performers. Those are the only two I concern myself with, because of their obvious roles in the Red Sox title runs and because their postseason numbers are that good.

[cp176]

Good comps. I'm confident that if Kike stays healthy, we'll be happy with him at $10M, whether he plays CF, 2B, SS or RF.

 

I'm not a believer in clutch as a repeatable skillset, but he came through when it counted for the Sox in 2021.

 

Coming through when it counts the most is a good definition of clutch.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

While we're at it, let's ask Joe Torre how he could have the nerve to bat ARod, the AL MVP, eighth in his batting order in the '06 postseason.

 

What does a guy like Torre know -- he was only an MVP himself in the majors, and a Hall of Fame manager.

[moonslav59]

Coming through when it counts the most is a good definition of clutch.

 

Nobody denies clutch examples exists. Some deny it is a skill set or repeatable skill.

[illinoisredsox]

Nobody denies clutch examples exists. Some deny it is a skill set or repeatable skill.

 

It’s a skill set in the sense that some players have the ability to relax in a big moment or not let it overwhelm them, allowing them to perform within the normal parameters of their natural ability.

 

Non-clutch players tense up and thus their natural ability is diminished.

[moonslav59]

It’s a skill set in the sense that some players have the ability to relax in a big moment or not let it overwhelm them, allowing them to perform within the normal parameters of their natural ability.

 

Non-clutch players tense up and thus their natural ability is diminished.

 

Certainly that could be a reason that happens, but those players do that in non clutch situations, too, and that's why they are better in the clutch, too.

 

Very few players have wide differentials between career OPS and Clutch OPS, and when those that do see their sample sizes grow, their numbers tend to regress to their norm.

 

My point is, how do we know the reasons some do better than others. If a computer generates what a normal plot charts would look like whe n randomly generated, and that plot chart looks almost exactly like the actual real chart, one wonders, if it is all just random or not.

 

Better players normally do better in the clutch, just as better players normally do better on Tuesdays or Saturdays.

[moonslav59]

If you have a big enough sample size of people flipping a coin 100 times, some will flip heads 65-75 times- some 25-35 times, and you can determine the mathematical chances for each number to occur. An actual test would reflect the mathematical predicted numbers pretty closely, and from what I've heard the amount of players doing very well in the clutch matches closely the expected randomly generated amount, too.

[mvp 78]

It’s a skill set in the sense that some players have the ability to relax in a big moment or not let it overwhelm them, allowing them to perform within the normal parameters of their natural ability.

 

Non-clutch players tense up and thus their natural ability is diminished.

 

Ah Dear Simpleton, didn't you already know that those players are filtered out long before they get to the big leagues! *insert emoji wearing a top hat and monocle*

[mvp 78]

Very few players have wide differentials between career OPS and Clutch OPS, and when those that do see their sample sizes grow, their numbers tend to regress to their norm.

 

Yes, because that is truly how us clutch atheists disprove its existence. Over the long term the performance will surely go back to the mean. Honestly, I can't believe all these clutch believers who just think there are mythical baseball players who can be "clutch" which ONLY means that they play EXCEEDINGLY BETTER than they usually do when it matters the most. Ridiculous! Could you even imagine?!? I nearly spat out my gimlet just now... Tomfoolery of the highest level!

[mvp 78]

Also, David Freese is an abomination that must be destroyed.

[moonslav59]

Yes, because that is truly how us clutch atheists disprove its existence. Over the long term the performance will surely go back to the mean. Honestly, I can't believe all these clutch believers who just think there are mythical baseball players who can be "clutch" which ONLY means that they play EXCEEDINGLY BETTER than they usually do when it matters the most. Ridiculous! Could you even imagine?!? I nearly spat out my gimlet just now... Tomfoolery of the highest level!

 

I'm guessing this should be in green.

[moonslav59]

Also, David Freese is an abomination that must be destroyed.

 

Yes, all of his 230 career playoff PAs.

[notin]

Also, David Freese is an abomination that must be destroyed.

 

The only truly clutch player in MLB history was Pat Tabler.

 

Career OPS: .724

Career OPS with bases loaded: 1.198

 

That just can’t be explained…

[moonslav59]

The only truly clutch player in MLB history was Pat Tabler.

 

Career OPS: .724

Career OPS with bases loaded: 1.198

 

That just can’t be explained…

 

One reason could be the SSS of 109 PAs.

[mvp 78]

The only truly clutch player in MLB history was Pat Tabler.

 

Career OPS: .724

Career OPS with bases loaded: 1.198

 

That just can’t be explained…

 

This is getting out of hand! Now there are two of them! :mad:

[moonslav59]

This is getting out of hand! Now there are two of them! :mad:

 

Wait for more...

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Not all postseason moments are the same, but all are different than the regular season -- otherwise, the big leagues wouldn't keep separate statistics for each. And that reason can't be just because of counting stats, because batting averages, OPS and ERA are based on percentages.

 

In the playoffs, you're facing the best teams, hitters, pitchers, and fielders -- but if that's not always true in the Wild Card Era, then at least each postseason series confronts ballplayers with the do-or-die pressures of elimination, with the season on the line.

 

If you combined career postseason and regular season stats, certain great players would definitely rise above other really good players who for some reason performed at lesser levels (injuries, sweaty palms, coin flip distractions -- who knows!).

[moonslav59]

Not all postseason moments are the same, but all are different than the regular season -- otherwise, the big leagues wouldn't keep separate statistics for each. And that reason can't be just because of counting stats, because batting averages, OPS and ERA are based on percentages.

 

In the playoffs, you're facing the best teams, hitters, pitchers, and fielders -- but if that's not always true in the Wild Card Era, then at least each postseason series confronts ballplayers with the do-or-die pressures of elimination, with the season on the line.

 

If you combined career postseason and regular season stats, certain great players would definitely rise above other really good players who for some reason performed at lesser levels (injuries, sweaty palms, coin flip distractions -- who knows!).

 

The Big leagues keeps the stats?

[mvp 78]

The Big leagues keeps the stats?

 

They are contained in a legion of Rawlings Scorebooks held in a vault under Cooperstown.

[moonslav59]

They are contained in a legion of Rawlings Scorebooks held in a vault under Cooperstown.

 

Do they pay scribes to enter the numbers, or have they gone roboscribe?

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

The Big leagues keeps the stats?

 

2024 MLB Player Hitting Stat Leaders | MLB.com

WWW.MLB.COM

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The official source for player hitting stats, MLB home run leaders, batting average, OPS and stat leaders

 

(logo in the top left corner has been the official insignia of the Major Leagues since 1969; some say it was designed after the likeness of Harmon Killebrew -- or the dislikeness, if you're an opposing pitcher)