2022 Bullpen Thread

[Old Red]

Our pen was actually pretty good for the brief time Houck and Whitlock were in the pen, without one being a piggybacker.

 

The sample size is too small to know anything, for sure, and I certainly share your concerns about naming one the closer for 2023.

 

I do think their career sample sizes are big enough to have a lot of hope that one can be a big plus in the closer or relief ace role. (Most great closers were once not closers.)

 

Career OPS Against

 

.591 in 595 PAs Against Houck (.570 as RP'er)

 

.635 in 609 PAs Against Whitlock (.603 as RPer)

 

_____________________

 

.529 Kimbrel

.544 Jansen

.588 Uehara

.592 Papelbon

.598 Diaz

.653 Foulke

 

We will have to skimp somewhere, if we go heavy on a closer. IMO, getting 2-3 solid set-up men for the price of one great closer is a better route to take. It does not mean I de-value the pen more than others.

 

I also see a high need at SS and maybe RF. Those guys play everyday, and their defense, alone may matter as much as one RP'er who pitches 55-65 innings.

That’s why we have to know the plan with Whitlock BP, or rotation, before a plan is made, and, also Bogey, and Raffy to see how much money there is to spend, and if a SS is needed. I don’t see how to much can be done until these are decided.

Edited September 28, 2022 by Old Red

[moonslav59]

That’s why we have to know the plan with Whitlock BP, or rotation, before a plan is made, and, also Bogey, and Raffy to see how much money there is to spend, and if a SS is needed. I don’t see how to much can be done until these are decided.

 

They may have already been decided. (Devers may be on hold for longer.)

 

We, as in us fans, don't "need to know." We'll find out, eventually.

 

More and more, I think we will re-set in 2023. If my calculations ar correct- concerning arbs and the Paxton/Pham options, we should have about $55-65M to spend in AAV. We can argue all day about what priority is #1, but I think we all agree we need, at bare minimum...

 

2 solid pitchers (RP or SP depends on where Houck and Whitlock are slotted and their health)

SS

RF/DH

 

IMO, we need 3-4 pitchers, a SS and a FT RF'er (5-6 key additions)

 

If we settle on 5 players and $60M, that's $12M per player. For every guy we sign for more, another guy or two gets less.

 

I do hope we make a trade for one key slot, so we'll have $60M to spend on 4 slots- not 5, but if the longer term plan is still the number one priority, I doubt it happens, unless the guy we trade for has 4+ years of team control (maybe 3, if a great one.)

 

I'd love to have a lock-down closer as much as anyone, but I'd also love to have a great SS, and cae and a decent RF'er to go with the pen upgrade.

 

 

 

[notin]

That’s why we have to know the plan with Whitlock BP, or rotation, before a plan is made, and, also Bogey, and Raffy to see how much money there is to spend, and if a SS is needed. I don’t see how to much can be done until these are decided.

 

How do you know none of that is decided? Just because we’re in the dark means less than nothing…

[Old Red]

They may have already been decided. (Devers may be on hold for longer.)

 

We, as in us fans, don't "need to know." We'll find out, eventually.

 

More and more, I think we will re-set in 2023. If my calculations ar correct- concerning arbs and the Paxton/Pham options, we should have about $55-65M to spend in AAV. We can argue all day about what priority is #1, but I think we all agree we need, at bare minimum...

 

2 solid pitchers (RP or SP depends on where Houck and Whitlock are slotted and their health)

SS

RF/DH

 

IMO, we need 3-4 pitchers, a SS and a FT RF'er (5-6 key additions)

 

If we settle on 5 players and $60M, that's $12M per player. For every guy we sign for more, another guy or two gets less.

 

I do hope we make a trade for one key slot, so we'll have $60M to spend on 4 slots- not 5, but if the longer term plan is still the number one priority, I doubt it happens, unless the guy we trade for has 4+ years of team control (maybe 3, if a great one.)

 

I'd love to have a lock-down closer as much as anyone, but I'd also love to have a great SS, and cae and a decent RF'er to go with the pen upgrade.

 

 

 

I only meant us fans need to know just to formulate what our plans would be. After trading for JBJ none of us for the most part don’t have a clue to knowing what Bloom will do.of course it doesn’t stop us for trying.

[moonslav59]

I only meant us fans need to know just to formulate what our plans would be. After trading for JBJ none of us for the most part don’t have a clue to knowing what Bloom will do.of course it doesn’t stop us for trying.

 

I was just busting your balls. Remember, you gave me crap for saying "We..." and asking if I was part of the Sox management team or something?

[Old Red]

How do you know none of that is decided? Just because we’re in the dark means less than nothing…

 

Whitlock may be decided, but I doubt Raffy has been decided, and Bogey it’s a toss up.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Our pen was actually pretty good for the brief time Houck and Whitlock were in the pen, without one being a piggybacker.

 

IMO, getting 2-3 solid set-up men for the price of one great closer is a better route to take. It does not mean I de-value the pen more than others.

 

I also see a high need at SS and maybe RF. Those guys play everyday, and their defense, alone may matter as much as one RP'er who pitches 55-65 innings.

 

All good points... and what it means, as usual, is that good, durable, reliable starting pitching is the key to everything.

 

There seem to have been several spells lately -- usually at the beginning of the season or in the first half -- where the Red Sox bullpen actually looked decent... especially in early 2021, when the All-Star caliber combo of Barnes and Whitlock had them vying for first place.

 

But the bottom line that always leads to relievers bottoming out is overuse, and it's usually because the starters can't even give us five innings, never mind a "quality start."

 

Hence, the never-ending need to find, develop, promote, buy, and trade for more starters, starters, starters! ... yes, I wrote it three Blooming times (not even a subtle hint, hint).

[moonslav59]

All good points... and what it means, as usual, is that good, durable, reliable starting pitching is the key to everything.

 

There seem to have been several spells lately -- usually at the beginning of the season or in the first half -- where the Red Sox bullpen actually looked decent... especially in early 2021, when the All-Star caliber combo of Barnes and Whitlock had them vying for first place.

 

But the bottom line that always leads to relievers bottoming out is overuse, and it's usually because the starters can't even give us five innings, never mind a "quality start."

 

Hence, the never-ending need to find, develop, promote, buy, and trade for more starters, starters, starters! ... yes, I wrote it three Blooming times (not even a subtle hint, hint).

 

I totally agree, and it does look like Bloom is trying to build up farm depth and quality pitching, although his highest draft picks don't reflect that point. Many of our most promising young pitchers are from the DD and ben eras, but that is kind of expected, as it takes 3-6 years for a draftee to start producing.

 

Bloom did acquire Whitlock, Winckowski, Seabold, German, Z Kelly, J Wallace and L de la Rosa via trades, Rule 5 and minor league free agency, but none have amounted to much, yet.

 

The carry-overs look more promising:

Bello

Mata

TWard

Walter

Wikelman

Crawford (post prospect)

Perales

Drohan

Murphy (falling off a cliff, of late)

[Old Red]

Jansen picked up his 40th save yesterday, and Bard got his 33rd for the last place Rockies, but nah the Red Sox don’t need anyone like that. Tony Mass had a interesting point the other night during the Sox broadcast about pick up Diaz from the Mets. Made more sense in what the Red Sox tried to do this year. Sound the trumpets!

[moonslav59]

All good points... and what it means, as usual, is that good, durable, reliable starting pitching is the key to everything.

 

There seem to have been several spells lately -- usually at the beginning of the season or in the first half -- where the Red Sox bullpen actually looked decent... especially in early 2021, when the All-Star caliber combo of Barnes and Whitlock had them vying for first place.

 

But the bottom line that always leads to relievers bottoming out is overuse, and it's usually because the starters can't even give us five innings, never mind a "quality start."

 

Hence, the never-ending need to find, develop, promote, buy, and trade for more starters, starters, starters! ... yes, I wrote it three Blooming times (not even a subtle hint, hint).

 

The pen looked best when Houck & Whitlock were bot in the pen, and one was not piggy-backing.

 

I'm not for standing pat, but if we only have $55-70M to spend, I'm not sure buying a $20M closer will leave enough for other high need areas- like SP, SS & RF to make having a great closer matter.

 

For argument's sake, let's say we do this:

$27M x ? Bogey

$19M x ? Diaz

 

That might leave just $10-25M to fill 2-3 SP'er slots, RF, DH and pen depth.

 

Now, if Henry okays a major over tax budget, then the narrative changes.

[Bellhorn04]

Jansen picked up his 40th save yesterday, and Bard got his 33rd for the last place Rockies, but nah the Red Sox don’t need anyone like that.

 

Bard isn't really a great example of the importance of closers, since the Rockies are even worse than us.

[notin]

Bard isn't really a great example of the importance of closers, since the Rockies are even worse than us.

 

Jansen is also the guy the Dodgers walked away from and it didn’t exactly show them down.

 

Not to mention, who exactly were the Sox supposed to not sign so they could afford Jansen? Do people really think the choices came down to Diekman or Jansen? Or better yet - Jansen over Story? Seriously?

 

There was no way the Sox could afford Jansen.

 

And Bard just ruins the “we need a closer with experience” argument since he did take 8 years off and wasn’t even a good closer before the hiatus. Diekman and Robles had better track records in the role. Bard had FIVE CAREER SAVES prior to becoming the Rockies’ closer. The Sox had multiple pitchers with more success in the role than that prior to this season…

[moonslav59]

Jansen is also the guy the Dodgers walked away from and it didn’t exactly show them down.

 

Not to mention, who exactly were the Sox supposed to not sign so they could afford Jansen? Do people really think the choices came down to Diekman or Jansen? Or better yet - Jansen over Story? Seriously?

 

There was no way the Sox could afford Jansen.

 

And Bard just ruins the “we need a closer with experience” argument since he did take 8 years off and wasn’t even a good closer before the hiatus. Diekman and Robles had better track records in the role. Bard had FIVE CAREER SAVES prior to becoming the Rockies’ closer. The Sox had multiple pitchers with more success in the role than that prior to this season…

 

If we pick up a RP'er with 5 career saves and anoint him the closer, I can just hear the rancor seeping from my monitor.

 

Yet, Bard keeps being mentioned- like he was even an option, last winter.

 

In reality, we need to find the next Uehara or hope Whitlock and or Houck can fill the closer or relief aces slots. I just don't see us spending big at closer- at the expense of SP'ing, SS, RF and maybe even DH and more pen depth.

[notin]

If we pick up a RP'er with 5 career saves and anoint him the closer, I can just hear the rancor seeping from my monitor.

 

Yet, Bard keeps being mentioned- like he was even an option, last winter.

 

In reality, we need to find the next Uehara or hope Whitlock and or Houck can fill the closer or relief aces slots. I just don't see us spending big at closer- at the expense of SP'ing, SS, RF and maybe even DH and more pen depth.

 

Houck has more saves now than Bard had prior to becoming the Rockies’ closer.

 

I would imagine the 2023 Sox cost is already on the team - whether it’s Houck, Whitlock or Schreiber. I just want to add some better bullpen arms and not worry so much about the roles. To me, Fulmer and Montero are the best free agent options.

 

Of course, a lot depends on the health and recovery of both Houck and Taylor…

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Houck has more saves now than Bard had prior to becoming the Rockies’ closer.

 

I would imagine the 2023 Sox cost is already on the team - whether it’s Houck, Whitlock or Schreiber. I just want to add some better bullpen arms and not worry so much about the roles. To me, Fulmer and Montero are the best free agent options.

 

Of course, a lot depends on the health and recovery of both Houck and Taylor…

 

This is why Bloom needs, at least, to make a better investment in bullpen depth... whether it's spending on free agents, trading prospects for relievers or more likely -- converting promising young arms into relief roles.

 

I might be wrong, but the latter may be what Chaim meant when he mentioned to Pete A. "contributions from unexpected places and contributions from within."

 

Imagine having half a dozen Frank Germans on the Wooster bus, dropping in and out of Fenway, depending on the weekly bullpen burnout of modern starters not going 5 frames. And isn't having a revolving door of no-name arms that throw in the high-90s a trademark of at least one sustained contender in the AL East (actually the AL far southEast)...

[mvp 78]

Jansen is also the guy the Dodgers walked away from and it didn’t exactly show them down.

 

Not to mention, who exactly were the Sox supposed to not sign so they could afford Jansen? Do people really think the choices came down to Diekman or Jansen? Or better yet - Jansen over Story? Seriously?

 

There was no way the Sox could afford Jansen.

And Bard just ruins the “we need a closer with experience” argument since he did take 8 years off and wasn’t even a good closer before the hiatus. Diekman and Robles had better track records in the role. Bard had FIVE CAREER SAVES prior to becoming the Rockies’ closer. The Sox had multiple pitchers with more success in the role than that prior to this season…

 

Why couldn't they afford Jansen? They went over the luxury tax.

[notin]

This is why Bloom needs, at least, to make a better investment in bullpen depth... whether it's spending on free agents, trading prospects for relievers or more likely -- converting promising young arms into relief roles.

 

I might be wrong, but the latter may be what Chaim meant when he mentioned to Pete A. "contributions from unexpected places and contributions from within."

 

Imagine having half a dozen Frank Germans on the Wooster bus, dropping in and out of Fenway, depending on the weekly bullpen burnout of modern starters not going 5 frames. And isn't having a revolving door of no-name arms that throw in the high-90s a trademark of at least one sustained contender in the AL East (actually the AL far southEast)...

 

I don’t think converting minor league starters to major league relievers counts as an unexpected source. Every team does that and has been doing it for decades. Heck Mariano Rivera was a starter in the minor leagues.

 

Want a reliever from an unexpected source? Maybe convert a minor league shortstop! Sure the Sox fans will scream about this clear abomination, but this is how Joe Nathan and Trevor Hoffman started their careers. Ditto for former Red Sox minor league shortstop and Rockies closer Rafael Betancourt. Jeter Downs has a good arm. Maybe?

Edited October 3, 2022 by notin

[moonslav59]

Houck has more saves now than Bard had prior to becoming the Rockies’ closer.

 

I would imagine the 2023 Sox cost is already on the team - whether it’s Houck, Whitlock or Schreiber. I just want to add some better bullpen arms and not worry so much about the roles. To me, Fulmer and Montero are the best free agent options.

 

Of course, a lot depends on the health and recovery of both Houck and Taylor…

 

I totally agree.

 

No more Diekmans.

 

2-3 Strahms at his 2022 level might be enough, but I like your guys better.

 

We need more money for SP, SS and RF/DH.

[moonslav59]

Why couldn't they afford Jansen? They went over the luxury tax.

 

You think JH was okay going way over v just a little over?

 

You may be right, but I can't imagine a GM being given the okay to spend $10-15M more and saying no.

[notin]

Why couldn't they afford Jansen? They went over the luxury tax.

 

The Sox final payroll was $234 million. Adding Jansen takes them to $250mill, which I believe is territory even Dave Dombrowski was not allowed to go.

 

Just because they went over the tax limit doesn’t mean the budget was suddenly infinite…

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

I don’t think converting minor league starters to major league relievers counts as an unexpected source. Every team does that and has been doing it for decades. Heck Mariano Rivera was a starter in the minor leagues.

 

Want a reliever from an unexpected source? Maybe convert a minor league shortstop! Sure the Sox fans will scream about this clear abomination, but is SoFi how Joe Nathan and Trevor Hoffman started their careers. Ditto for former Red Sox minor league shortstop and Rockies closer Rafael Betancourt. Jeter Downs has a good arm. Maybe?

 

The Sox once had Frankie Rodriguez and Trey Ball, who both wanted to pitch and hit. I don't know what those guys were thinking. Imagine a big leaguer starting on the mound one day, and then DHing or even playing a position on the other days...

 

Maybe Bloom means they'll activate old timers to wear a uni, down a beer, and climb out of the stands to throw one inning like the Bananas did with Bill Lee. Koji, come on down. Foulkie, you're next. Paps? Zoom for you!

[Old Red]

Bard isn't really a great example of the importance of closers, since the Rockies are even worse than us.

 

You are right in the fact that the Red Sox are a last place team too, but a good closer is a good way to make the club better, and I’m not going to count on Houck, or Whitlock to be that person if i want to make the team better that has a long way to go. Yes Whitlock, and Houck made the backend of the BP better when they got put there, but look what they had before. They can set up a good reliable closer, and yes I know you all disagree, but most of the good clubs have one except the Dodgers that may come back to bite them in the post season, which I Hope Jansen, and the Braves do.

Edited October 3, 2022 by Old Red

[moonslav59]

You are right in the fact that the Red Sox are a last place team too, but a good closer is a good way to make the club better.

 

Nobody denies that fact.

 

IMO, the problem is, if we spend on a closer, we don't spend somewhere else.

 

What positions are weakest?

 

Closer/solid set-up?

Whitlock

Houck

Schreiber

Barnes/Taylor

 

SS

Arroyo

Downs

 

RF

Refsnyder

(Dugo w Pham in LF? AT $12M???!!!???)

 

DH

Platoon: Hosmer v R & Dalbec/Pham/??? v L

 

SP (after Pivetta & Bello)

Sale

??? Paxton ???

Crawford

Winckowski

Mata/Walter/TWard/Seabold/Murphy/Santos

 

Bottom of pen (after the 4-5 I mentioned above)

Kelly

Brasier

Danish

German/Bazardo/Ort/DHern or a converted SP'er like Wink/Crawford/Murphy

 

To me, the glaring weaknesses are not the top of the pen, but that's not to say it is a strength.

 

 

 

 

[Old Red]

Nobody denies that fact.

 

IMO, the problem is, if we spend on a closer, we don't spend somewhere else.

 

What positions are weakest?

 

Closer/solid set-up?

Whitlock

Houck

Schreiber

Barnes/Taylor

 

SS

Arroyo

Downs

 

RF

Refsnyder

(Dugo w Pham in LF? AT $12M???!!!???)

 

DH

Platoon: Hosmer v R & Dalbec/Pham/??? v L

 

SP (after Pivetta & Bello)

Sale

??? Paxton ???

Crawford

Winckowski

Mata/Walter/TWard/Seabold/Murphy/Santos

 

Bottom of pen (after the 4-5 I mentioned above)

Kelly

Brasier

Danish

German/Bazardo/Ort/DHern or a converted SP'er like Wink/Crawford/Murphy

 

To me, the glaring weaknesses are not the top of the pen, but that's not to say it is a strength.

 

 

 

 

So you already have Bogey gone, and if that is the case you don’t have Story going to SS, which may happen, and also Arroyo to 2B. Whitlock may also may end up back in the rotation, so you are going on a lot of assumptions that may be right, or wrong, but until something happens no one really knows, but if my possibilities happens that changes lots of things does it not?

[moonslav59]

So you already have Bogey gone, and if that is the case you don’t have Story going to SS, which may happen, and also Arroyo to 2B. Whitlock may also may end up back in the rotation, so you are going on a lot of assumptions that may be right, or wrong, but until something happens no one really knows, but if my possibilities happens that changes lots of things does it not?

 

No. I listed slots that are currently open for 2023. We could keep Bogey, Wacha, Nate, JD and others, if we AND they choose to stay. (Paxton or Pham?)

 

Yes, we may shift some people around.

 

If we move Houck or Whitlock to SP, then the Pen needs more help.

 

I listed Arroy at SS, so it's pretty much the same as moving Story to SS and using Arroyo at 2B.

 

Would you prefer that over a solid closer?

 

I'm not saying every choice is a clear cut choice against a closer. I'm just saying, when we choose to spend big anywhere, it likely means we settle for what we already have at one or more of the positions I listed.

 

(I did not even mention catcher and 4th OF'er (assuming we add a RF'er), where many might see a bigger need than I do..

[notin]

The Sox once had Frankie Rodriguez and Trey Ball, who both wanted to pitch and hit. I don't know what those guys were thinking. Imagine a big leaguer starting on the mound one day, and then DHing or even playing a position on the other days...

 

Maybe Bloom means they'll activate old timers to wear a uni, down a beer, and climb out of the stands to throw one inning like the Bananas did with Bill Lee. Koji, come on down. Foulkie, you're next. Paps? Zoom for you!

 

 

Did the Sox ever really want those guys to pitch and hit?

 

Rodriguez had a slew of plate appearances his first year and then none after. Ball had 0 players appearances in his first 5 minor league seasons…

[notin]

You are right in the fact that the Red Sox are a last place team too, but a good closer is a good way to make the club better, and I’m not going to count on Houck, or Whitlock to be that person if i want to make the team better that has a long way to go. Yes Whitlock, and Houck made the backend of the BP better when they got put there, but look what they had before. They can set up a good reliable closer, and yes I know you all disagree, but most of the good clubs have one except the Dodgers that may come back to bite them in the post season, which I Hope Jansen, and the Braves do.

 

Houck has a much better closer track record than Bard had prior to joining the Rockies.

 

The grass is always greener, I suppose. If we had Bard and the Rockies had Houck, fans would be complaining about how other teams develop their own closers while the Sox with their huge payroll have to dig up guys who have been retired for 8 years…

[Old Red]

No. I listed slots that are currently open for 2023. We could keep Bogey, Wacha, Nate, JD and others, if we AND they choose to stay. (Paxton or Pham?)

 

Yes, we may shift some people around.

 

If we move Houck or Whitlock to SP, then the Pen needs more help.

 

I listed Arroy at SS, so it's pretty much the same as moving Story to SS and using Arroyo at 2B.

 

Would you prefer that over a solid closer?

 

I'm not saying every choice is a clear cut choice against a closer. I'm just saying, when we choose to spend big anywhere, it likely means we settle for what we already have at one or more of the positions I listed.

 

(I did not even mention catcher and 4th OF'er (assuming we add a RF'er), where many might see a bigger need than I do..

There is just all kinds of possibilities that the Sox could go. Kike could come back to the IF. I don’t think Arryo at SS, and Story at 2B is the Same as the other way around, but at any rate you can’t count on Arroyo to stay on the field. Yes if you move Houck, and Whitlock to the rotation, which is not what I would do you would need more help for the pen. All I’m saying is that there are many ways for the team to go, and after last offseason like bringing JBJ back nothing Bloom, and Cora would do would surprise me.

[moonslav59]

There is just all kinds of possibilities that the Sox could go. Kike could come back to the IF. I don’t think Arryo at SS, and Story at 2B is the Same as the other way around, but at any rate you can’t count on Arroyo to stay on the field. Yes if you move Houck, and Whitlock to the rotation, which is not what I would do you would need more help for the pen. All I’m saying is that there are many ways for the team to go, and after last offseason like bringing JBJ back nothing Bloom, and Cora would do would surprise me.

 

I'm curious, looking at my list and adjusting Arroyo to 2B and Story to SS, as could happen, how would you rank our top priorities? One can just say "pitcher" rather than solid SP or RP to cover for the unknown choices on where Whitlock and Houck will be slotted.

 

I'd think it might look like this: ( see 6 or 7 as essential, but maybe 4-5 are vital.)

 

1. P

2. SS/2B

3. P

4. P

5. RF (or RF/DH)

6. P

7. DH (or 1B/DH, if we get a legit RF'er)

8. Catcher

9. P or Utility

10. P

 

[Old Red]

I'm curious, looking at my list and adjusting Arroyo to 2B and Story to SS, as could happen, how would you rank our top priorities? One can just say "pitcher" rather than solid SP or RP to cover for the unknown choices on where Whitlock and Houck will be slotted.

 

I'd think it might look like this: ( see 6 or 7 as essential, but maybe 4-5 are vital.)

 

1. P

2. SS/2B

3. P

4. P

5. RF (or RF/DH)

6. P

7. DH (or 1B/DH, if we get a legit RF'er)

8. Catcher

9. P or Utility

10. P

 

 

If Arroyo, and Story were at 2B/SS that would take that out as a need, and then it’s all P,P,P, and a RF.