2022 Bullpen Thread

[moonslav59]

You can’t just bring everyone else back, but Strahm, so it’s not we only lose Strahm. I’ve said since opening day this year that a reliable closer is needed, and I still feel that way, and to me that reliable closer is not on the team now. Yes we probably need 2 more starters too, and that’s taking a big chance that Sale will be healthy, and that is a big if. Houck, and Whitlock are coming off injuries, and who knows what Barnes will give you. I’m not counting on Schreiber to be as good next year, but if it happens great. Everyone has known all these holes were going to be there before this season even started, so filling those holes is nothing new.

 

I'm not saying we don't need pen help. I'm just saying getting a solid SP'er is the number 1 priority- maybe number 2 to bringing Bogey back or replacing him without a major downgrade.

 

The pen is #3, in my book. That's not downplaying that need. It's more about highlighting just how desperate we are to add an ace and a SS for 2023.

 

I know counting on Schreiber is very risky, but so is counting on this rotation:

 

Sale

Paxton

Pivetta

Bello

Crawford

 

I see that as worse than this:

Whitlock

Houck

Schreiber

(Crawford?)

Barnes

Taylor

Kelly/German/Danish/Bazardo/Brasier

 

They both are high need areas. I was only responding to the portion of the position that said the pen was #1.

 

You, yourself have said taking care of the Bogey (or SS decision) is the first priority, so I think we are in agreement- or close to one.

[notin]

Of course Dombrowski is the big outlier here. He couldn't ever build a pen either.

 

And Detroit where Dombrowski famously couldn’t build a pen) is the outlier the other way…

[Old Red]

I'm not saying we don't need pen help. I'm just saying getting a solid SP'er is the number 1 priority- maybe number 2 to bringing Bogey back or replacing him without a major downgrade.

 

The pen is #3, in my book. That's not downplaying that need. It's more about highlighting just how desperate we are to add an ace and a SS for 2023.

 

I know counting on Schreiber is very risky, but so is counting on this rotation:

 

Sale

Paxton

Pivetta

Bello

Crawford

 

I see that as worse than this:

Whitlock

Houck

Schreiber

(Crawford?)

Barnes

Taylor

Kelly/German/Danish/Bazardo/Brasier

 

They both are high need areas. I was only responding to the portion of the position that said the pen was #1.

 

You, yourself have said taking care of the Bogey (or SS decision) is the first priority, so I think we are in agreement- or close to one.

 

I said taking care of Bogey, and Raffy first also was because you have to know how much money you are going to have to spend. I agree that depending on this rotation, and this BP are both risky business.

[dgalehouse]

Signing Bogaerts and Devers can and should be done. Just have to be willing to spend the bucks. But that alone does not improve this team. Signing a so - called ace is fine , but he is only going to pitch about six innings every five days or so , and could break down any time. You need the bullpen almost every day. It is very difficult to be a winning team without a first rate bullpen. That is more so the case today than it was years ago.

[moonslav59]

I said taking care of Bogey, and Raffy first also was because you have to know how much money you are going to have to spend. I agree that depending on this rotation, and this BP are both risky business.

 

We have no reliable ace in our system, either.

 

While Whitlock and/or Houck may not seem like reliable closers, they are closer to one than Pivetta is to an ace.

[moonslav59]

Signing Bogaerts and Devers can and should be done. Just have to be willing to spend the bucks. But that alone does not improve this team. Signing a so - called ace is fine , but he is only going to pitch about six innings every five days or so , and could break down any time. You need the bullpen almost every day. It is very difficult to be a winning team without a first rate bullpen. That is more so the case today than it was years ago.

 

Without an ace and another solid SP'er, we won't need a pen. There will be few(er) high leverage situations after the 5th.

[notin]

Signing Bogaerts and Devers can and should be done. Just have to be willing to spend the bucks. But that alone does not improve this team. Signing a so - called ace is fine , but he is only going to pitch about six innings every five days or so , and could break down any time. You need the bullpen almost every day. It is very difficult to be a winning team without a first rate bullpen. That is more so the case today than it was years ago.

 

Agreed that a killer bullpen is more important than an ace. More pitchers look like aces when you only need 5-6 IP from them…

[notin]

Without an ace and another solid SP'er, we won't need a pen. There will be few(er) high leverage situations after the 5th.

 

Not true.

 

We do need SP, but if the pen limits the opposition to 5-6 innings per game for scoring, it can work out well.

 

Of course you need to be 7-8 pitchers deep in the pen and maybe more to pull that off…

[moonslav59]

Not true.

 

We do need SP, but if the pen limits the opposition to 5-6 innings per game for scoring, it can work out well.

 

Of course you need to be 7-8 pitchers deep in the pen and maybe more to pull that off…

 

It won't matter how good our pen is, if we start the year with these guys in the 1 to 5 slots:

 

1. Sale

2. Paxton

3. Pivetta

4. Bello

5. Crawford

(depth: Wink, Seabold and maybe Mata, TWard or Walter by mid-season)

[notin]

It won't matter how good our pen is, if we start the year with these guys in the 1 to 5 slots:

 

1. Sale

2. Paxton

3. Pivetta

4. Bello

5. Crawford

(depth: Wink, Seabold and maybe Mata, TWard or Walter by mid-season)

 

Have you seen the rotation Tampa is taking to the postseason? Or that Baltimore has ridden to the best second half record in MLB? Or that St. Louis is using to take the NL Central?

[dgalehouse]

And Detroit where Dombrowski famously couldn’t build a pen) is the outlier the other way…

 

One of Dombrowski's biggest mistakes was in the 2018-2019 off season. Kimbrel (40 plus saves) and Kelly (hard throwing set up man) both left and he did literally nothing to replace them. He just figured that what was left in the bullpen could take up the slack. But they couldn't and it was one of the reasons for the team's decline that wound up costing him his job.

[moonslav59]

Have you seen the rotation Tampa is taking to the postseason? Or that Baltimore has ridden to the best second half record in MLB? Or that St. Louis is using to take the NL Central?

 

It's not impossible to win without a strong rotation, but I've also seen some crappy pen teams win, too.

 

I like Whit, Houck, Schreiber, Barnes, Taylor, Crawford and Kelly/German/Wink/Bazardo better than...

 

Sale/Paxton/Pivetta/Bello and ______.

 

[moonslav59]

One of Dombrowski's biggest mistakes was in the 2018-2019 off season. Kimbrel (40 plus saves) and Kelly (hard throwing set up man) both left and he did literally nothing to replace them. He just figured that what was left in the bullpen could take up the slack. But they couldn't and it was one of the reasons for the team's decline that wound up costing him his job.

 

One could have said, and did say, the same about 2021.

[Hugh2]

Without an ace and another solid SP'er, we won't need a pen. There will be few(er) high leverage situations after the 5th.

 

The way the game is played today the bullpen is more valuable and relevant as ever BUT starting pitching is still king, and the team arguably needs that more.

[Bellhorn04]

We need it all.

[moonslav59]

The way the game is played today the bullpen is more valuable and relevant as ever BUT starting pitching is still king, and the team arguably needs that more.

 

I agree. The trend is towards strong and much deeper pens. Almost every team used the added 26th man on the pitching staff, too.

 

I've been saying we need 2 solid pen arms, but my point is that I like what we have in the pen, right now (assuming they come back healthy) more than the rotation.

 

We need both, badly.

[Bellhorn04]

What might be interesting is to look at the most successful bullpens and how they were put together. Hopefully Chaim is doing so!

[Old Red]

What might be interesting is to look at the most successful bullpens and how they were put together. Hopefully Chaim is doing so!

 

He certainly didn’t look at that this year.

[Old Red]

It's not impossible to win without a strong rotation, but I've also seen some crappy pen teams win, too.

 

I like Whit, Houck, Schreiber, Barnes, Taylor, Crawford and Kelly/German/Wink/Bazardo better than...

 

Sale/Paxton/Pivetta/Bello and ______.

 

It seems like we have another fence that people are sitting on different sides of. A last place team, and you want to bring back pretty much the same bullpen without an established closer at that. We are really going to find out how good Bloom is this off season although I think some already know. Bloom may have to trade some of the non pitching prospects for some pitching prospects for the pen, and for the rotation too. To come back with all these same pitchers you have listed looks like another losing season to me. FA too have to be in the mix.

[moonslav59]

It seems like we have another fence that people are sitting on different sides of. A last place team, and you want to bring back pretty much the same bullpen without an established closer at that. We are really going to find out how good Bloom is this off season although I think some already know. Bloom may have to trade some of the non pitching prospects for some pitching prospects for the pen, and for the rotation too. To come back with all these same pitchers you have listed looks like another losing season to me. FA too have to be in the mix.

 

Where did I even come close to saying I want to bring back the same pen?

 

I said I think WE NEED 2 SOLID RP'ers!

 

I said I think we need a SS and an ACE more than pen help.

 

(I changed the font, color and underlined it, so you wouldn't miss it.

 

We should have enough resources to trade for an ace and sign a SS, RF'er and 2 solid pen arms. I've listed this as my foundation plan numerous times.

[Old Red]

Where did I even come close to saying I want to bring back the same pen?

 

I said I think WE NEED 2 SOLID RP'ers!

 

I said I think we need a SS and an ACE more than pen help.

 

(I changed the font, color and underlined it, so you wouldn't miss it.

 

We should have enough resources to trade for an ace and sign a SS, RF'er and 2 solid pen arms. I've listed this as my foundation plan numerous times.

I guess you missed the part where I said Pretty Much The Same BP, and you had a pretty long list, but I’ve been beating the needing a closer drum since opening day this year, and that is still my #1 priority for the BP. We can all have our thoughts, and wishes but assuming Whitlock, and Houck are healthy it would be good to know what their roles will be to make out further plans. Whitlock back to the rotation changes needs, or lack of needs in both areas.

[moonslav59]

I guess you missed the part where I said Pretty Much The Same BP, and you had a pretty long list, but I’ve been beating the needing a closer drum since opening day this year, and that is still my #1 priority for the BP. We can all have our thoughts, and wishes but assuming Whitlock, and Houck are healthy it would be good to know what their roles will be to make out further plans. Whitlock back to the rotation changes needs, or lack of needs in both areas.

 

I didn't miss anything. Adding two solid RP'ers is NOT "pretty much the same." It's two more than we had this year. (Two out of the six slots I think are our highest priority.)

 

One could be a closer, but I would be fine with 2 solid set-up men and using Whitlock and Houck as Relief aces or choosing one to be the traditional closer.

 

That makes Schreiber the 5th best RP'er in the pen and maybe Barnes as the 6th best.

 

I'm also counting on better health from Houck & Whitlock and defined roles, but I did not think I has to mention that.

[moonslav59]

Whitlock back to the rotation changes needs, or lack of needs in both areas.

 

I mentioned our needs shift, if Houck or Whitlock is made into a SP'er.

 

If they both stay in the pen, as I pointed out as part of my suggested plan, we'd need 2 SP, 2 RP, SS, RF.

 

If one goes to the rotation, then it becomes a simple adjustment: 1 SP, 3 RP, SS, RF.

 

Again, one of those "solid RP'ers" could be a closer, but if we can get two much better set-up men by not spending big on one closer and much less on teh 2nd RP'er, I'd have to weigh the choices. Either way is fine with me.

 

We disagree on our belief that Houck or Whitlock can be a plus closer, but we bot agree we need one defined and in place for 2023.

[Old Red]

I didn't miss anything. Adding two solid RP'ers is NOT "pretty much the same." It's two more than we had this year. (Two out of the six slots I think are our highest priority.)

 

One could be a closer, but I would be fine with 2 solid set-up men and using Whitlock and Houck as Relief aces or choosing one to be the traditional closer.

 

That makes Schreiber the 5th best RP'er in the pen and maybe Barnes as the 6th best.

 

I'm also counting on better health from Houck & Whitlock and defined roles, but I did not think I has to mention that.

I guess we agree mostly except the biggie to me, which is getting an established closer. Like I said before if Whitlock, or Houck goes into the rotation it changes the needs of the staff. To me the best way to go is to have an established closer, a 8th inning man, and a 7th inning man, and none of this two inning stuff that takes that pitcher away for 2-3 days after.

[Old Red]

I mentioned our needs shift, if Houck or Whitlock is made into a SP'er.

 

If they both stay in the pen, as I pointed out as part of my suggested plan, we'd need 2 SP, 2 RP, SS, RF.

 

If one goes to the rotation, then it becomes a simple adjustment: 1 SP, 3 RP, SS, RF.

 

Again, one of those "solid RP'ers" could be a closer, but if we can get two much better set-up men by not spending big on one closer and much less on teh 2nd RP'er, I'd have to weigh the choices. Either way is fine with me.

 

We disagree on our belief that Houck or Whitlock can be a plus closer, but we bot agree we need one defined and in place for 2023.

 

We definitely disagree on Houck being a plus closer, and to me the jury is still out on Whitlock if he could pitch 3 out of 4 days. Don’t know if being jerked around plus the injury affected him, but he was not as lockdown as he was his first year, so he could be somewhere in between, which wouldn’t constitute a plus closer, and not a chance I want to take.

Edited September 28, 2022 by Old Red

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

The bullpen needs new blood. And not to spill.

 

We don't know who those new guys will be, but way too many words have already been typed about just redefining or reshuffling roles for pitchers on the existing staff.

 

Is it even feasible that the organization thinks it can convince fans to keep in watching in 2023 by hoping and insisting that some of the current arms will improve and others will heal?

 

New faces are needed to trust. Old ones are tired and suspect, and even if they develop new pitches won't prevent viewers from grabbing the remotes.

[Old Red]

The bullpen needs new blood. And not to spill.

 

We don't know who those new guys will be, but way too many words have already been typed about just redefining or reshuffling roles for pitchers on the existing staff.

 

Is it even feasible that the organization thinks it can convince fans to keep in watching in 2023 by hoping and insisting that some of the current arms will improve and others will heal?

 

New faces are needed to trust. Old ones are tired and suspect, and even if they develop new pitches won't prevent viewers from grabbing the remotes.

I agree 100%.

[moonslav59]

We definitely disagree on Houck being a plus closer, and to me the jury is still out on Whitlock if he could pitch 3 out of 4 days. Don’t know if being jerked around plus the injury affected him, but he was not as lockdown as he was his first year, so he could be somewhere in between, which wouldn’t constitute a plus closer, and not a chance I want to take.

 

I'm not aware of any top closer on the trade market, so for argument's sake, let's say we sign Diaz for maybe $20M per year.

 

If our budget is $60M, how do we sign Bogey, a RF'er and 2 SP'ers? Plus, we need more than a closer in the pen. Let's go with Houck and Whitlock as SP'ers with Bello taking the 5 slot, then we'd need a SS, RF'er and at least 2 more solid pen arms as set-ups for Diaz. How do we do that with $40M.

 

$25-28M might go for Bogey, alone. (Maybe $20M for Swanson or TAnderson- both steps down.)

 

That would leave $12-20M for RF, RP, RP and maybe some depth.

 

We'd be looking at 2 Diekmans and an OF'er like Pham.

 

I'm not against building the pen up, but great closers cost a lot. I'd rather add 2-3 solid pen arms, and I don't mean spending $3-4M like Strahm and Diekman or Andriese, last year. Maybe we get lucky and find the next Uehara- who was not a "closer" when we got him.

[Old Red]

I'm not aware of any top closer on the trade market, so for argument's sake, let's say we sign Diaz for maybe $20M per year.

 

If our budget is $60M, how do we sign Bogey, a RF'er and 2 SP'ers? Plus, we need more than a closer in the pen. Let's go with Houck and Whitlock as SP'ers with Bello taking the 5 slot, then we'd need a SS, RF'er and at least 2 more solid pen arms as set-ups for Diaz. How do we do that with $40M.

 

$25-28M might go for Bogey, alone. (Maybe $20M for Swanson or TAnderson- both steps down.)

 

That would leave $12-20M for RF, RP, RP and maybe some depth.

 

We'd be looking at 2 Diekmans and an OF'er like Pham.

 

I'm not against building the pen up, but great closers cost a lot. I'd rather add 2-3 solid pen arms, and I don't mean spending $3-4M like Strahm and Diekman or Andriese, last year. Maybe we get lucky and find the next Uehara- who was not a "closer" when we got him.

I agree with all these points, and I wouldn’t spend $20M on a closer either.

[moonslav59]

We definitely disagree on Houck being a plus closer, and to me the jury is still out on Whitlock if he could pitch 3 out of 4 days. Don’t know if being jerked around plus the injury affected him, but he was not as lockdown as he was his first year, so he could be somewhere in between, which wouldn’t constitute a plus closer, and not a chance I want to take.

 

Our pen was actually pretty good for the brief time Houck and Whitlock were in the pen, without one being a piggybacker.

 

The sample size is too small to know anything, for sure, and I certainly share your concerns about naming one the closer for 2023.

 

I do think their career sample sizes are big enough to have a lot of hope that one can be a big plus in the closer or relief ace role. (Most great closers were once not closers.)

 

Career OPS Against

 

.591 in 595 PAs Against Houck (.570 as RP'er)

 

.635 in 609 PAs Against Whitlock (.603 as RPer)

 

_____________________

 

.529 Kimbrel

.544 Jansen

.588 Uehara

.592 Papelbon

.598 Diaz

.653 Foulke

 

We will have to skimp somewhere, if we go heavy on a closer. IMO, getting 2-3 solid set-up men for the price of one great closer is a better route to take. It does not mean I de-value the pen more than others.

 

I also see a high need at SS and maybe RF. Those guys play everyday, and their defense, alone may matter as much as one RP'er who pitches 55-65 innings.