2022 Prospects

[moonslav59]

Use those guys to trade for a pitcher?

 

That's been our common practice.

[moonslav59]

A check on some farm OPS:

 

300+ ABs

1.043 Kavadas (25 HRs, 51 XBHs and 92 BBs)

.902 Rafaela (Rule 5, now in AA)

.860 Mayer (Not a bad start)

.844 Lugo (Coming on very strong, lately)

.831 Stewart (The quiet one.)

.830 Jordan (Started slowly.)

.817 Wong (Red hot in AAA. Sept call up?)

.799 Paulino (Rule 5 in Salem. Protect?)

.792 Granberg (only 4 HRs)

.783 Northcut (29 Hrs+17 2Bs =46 XBHs & just 36 singles)

.780 Bonaci (81 BB and 84 Ks w 23 SBs)

.772 Castellanos (Seems like AAAA)

.769 R Hern (not bad for a catcher)

.761 Koss (AA all year)

.731 Fitzy (another AAAA type?)

.726 Binelas (24 HRs & 74 RBI)

.705 Sogard (at AAA, now)

.703 McDonough (20 SB)

.677 Hamilton (58 SB & 10 HR)

.647 Yorke (Maybe the biggest letdown on the farm?)

 

200-299 ABs

.948 Hickey (61 BB and 65 K & 13 HRs)

.891 Casas (missed time w injury)

.869 Sikes (.370 OBP)

.790 Y Sanchez (Another AAAA profile)

.738 Joe Davis (AAAA)

.730 Dearden (AAAA)

.728 Downs (Another let down)

.722 Cottam (not bad for a catcher)

 

100-199 ABs

1.021 Refsnyder (8 HRS & 23 XBHs in 151 ABs)

.987 Cordero (17 XBHs in 117 ABs)

.910 Duran (Could not translate to ML level)

.874 Mieses (AAA)

.896 Bleis (Might be our best hope)

 

Additions to the farm:

1.015 A Almonte (33 yr old w .949 overall in '22)

.987 Meidroth (called up to Salem)

.961 R Anthony (Drafted)

.789 M Romero (Drafted)

.704 F Encarnacion (IFA)

.675 M Ferguson (.717 overall in '22)

.667 E Valdez (.943 OPS & 26 HRs overall in '22)

.628 W Abreu (.816 OPS & 16 Hrs overall in '22)

.600 F de Leon (IFA)

.516 C Rosier (.742 overall in '22)

.456 C Coffey (Drafted)

 

Edited August 30, 2022 by moonslav59

[Larry Cook]

This season has seen several positional prospects really step up. We got some good things in the works.

 

I am very hopeful we put Rafeala on the 40 man.

[moonslav59]

Some OPS Against Numbers

 

.518 German

.545 Z Kelly

.559 Bello

.576 Winckowski

.580 Mata

.585 Walter

.617 Politi

.618 Stock

.633 Keller

.634 Murphy

.636 Gonzalez

.641 Encarnacion

.657 Uberstine

.677 Seabold

.682 Drohan

[moonslav59]

I'm wondering if this might be the year ending Sox prospect rankings:

 

1. Mayer

2. Casas

3. Bleis

4. Bello

5. Rafaela

6. Mata

7. Walter

8. Romero

9. Yorke

10. Anthony

11. Wong

12. Lugo

13. Ward

14. Perales

15. Kavadas

16. Hickey

17. E Valdez

18. Jordan

19. Paulino

20. German

21. Winckowski

22. Murphy

23. Seabold

24. Gonzalez

25. Coffey

26. Drohan

27. W Abreu

28. Bonaci

29. Binelas

30. R Hernandez

 

[iortiz]

Bello is 4th? we are in trouble then.

[Hugh2]

Bello is 4th? we are in trouble then.

 

Right, because he doesn't have the greatest stat line after starting 5 games in the major league level as a 22-year-old who was in A ball just last year he has no future. Great insight. I get it's a frustrating season, but just because a guy comes up and isn't an immediate all star doesn't mean he doesn't have a promising future.

 

FWIW, Soxprospects has Bello as the #3 prospect. I think he finds his way into the rotation next year.

[Hugh2]

I'm wondering if this might be the year ending Sox prospect rankings:

 

1. Mayer

2. Casas

3. Bleis

4. Bello

5. Rafaela

6. Mata

7. Walter

8. Romero

9. Yorke

10. Anthony

11. Wong

12. Lugo

13. Ward

14. Perales

15. Kavadas

16. Hickey

17. E Valdez

18. Jordan

19. Paulino

20. German

21. Winckowski

22. Murphy

23. Seabold

24. Gonzalez

25. Coffey

26. Drohan

27. W Abreu

28. Bonaci

29. Binelas

30. R Hernandez

 

 

I'm not sure the put Bleis above Bello, Bleis isn't even playing right now. I also don't think Rafaela is going to jump above Mata, they like Rafaela but they're a little bit more skeptical on them than the national ranking outlets are (who all have him higher). Mata's biggest knock from the early days was not having a plus pitch, he threw everything OK with a good feel for pitching. Now that his velicity has ticked up into the high 90's he has a much higher ceiling than Rafaela and he's at a higher level. I also don't see them dropping Yorke that much, I think they're confident his injuries were a big hamper on his production. I can see Anthony jumping up to 10, he's been a monster at the plate. Could skyrocket next year.

[moonslav59]

Right, because he doesn't have the greatest stat line after starting 5 games in the major league level as a 22-year-old who was in A ball just last year he has no future. Great insight. I get it's a frustrating season, but just because a guy comes up and isn't an immediate all star doesn't mean he doesn't have a promising future.

 

FWIW, Soxprospects has Bello as the #3 prospect. I think he finds his way into the rotation next year.

 

Yes. I've never been high on Duran, mostly because of his defense and shifting offensive approach, but I'm surprised how many seem to have totally given up on him.

 

That being said, I'm not pencilling him into any FT role on the 2023 team, but he might make enough adjustments to at least become a platoon LF'er, someday.

[moonslav59]

I'm not sure the put Bleis above Bello, Bleis isn't even playing right now. I also don't think Rafaela is going to jump above Mata, they like Rafaela but they're a little bit more skeptical on them than the national ranking outlets are (who all have him higher). Mata's biggest knock from the early days was not having a plus pitch, he threw everything OK with a good feel for pitching. Now that his velicity has ticked up into the high 90's he has a much higher ceiling than Rafaela and he's at a higher level. I also don't see them dropping Yorke that much, I think they're confident his injuries were a big hamper on his production. I can see Anthony jumping up to 10, he's been a monster at the plate. Could skyrocket next year.

 

I'm fine with...

1. Mayer

2. Casas

3. Bello.

4. Mata

5. Rafaela

6. Bleis

 

That might be soxprospects.com's most likely top 6. I also don't think they'll jump Kavadas and Hickey as high as I have them. I do think, like mine, they will not have Downs in the top 30.

[Hugh2]

I'm fine with...

1. Mayer

2. Casas

3. Bello.

4. Mata

5. Rafaela

6. Bleis

 

That might be soxprospects.com's most likely top 6. I also don't think they'll jump Kavadas and Hickey as high as I have them. I do think, like mine, they will not have Downs in the top 30.

 

I highly doubt they're going to have Rafaela jump ahead of Bleis. They're lower on Rafaela than most and they really really like Bleis, If anything they have Bleis jump over Yorke. I think it's more likely we see

 

Mayer

Casas

Bello

Bleis

Mata

Yorke I could be underestimating them on dropping Yorke only a spot or two, but I don't think they have been that shaken by this season.

[moonslav59]

I highly doubt they're going to have Rafaela jump ahead of Bleis. They're lower on Rafaela than most and they really really like Bleis, If anything they have Bleis jump over Yorke. I think it's more likely we see

 

Mayer

Casas

Bello

Bleis

Mata

Yorke I could be underestimating them on dropping Yorke only a spot or two, but I don't think they have been that shaken by this season.

 

Fine with flipping Belis and Rafaela.

 

On Yorke, it's not so much about dropping him as the rise of the guys below him. I could see him being 7th on their list.

[iortiz]

Right, because he doesn't have the greatest stat line after starting 5 games in the major league level as a 22-year-old who was in A ball just last year he has no future. Great insight. I get it's a frustrating season, but just because a guy comes up and isn't an immediate all star doesn't mean he doesn't have a promising future.

 

FWIW, Soxprospects has Bello as the #3 prospect. I think he finds his way into the rotation next year.

I haven't seen him in minors but what he has shown thus far in majors indicates me that either he is not ready (and is far to be as I see it) and/or his stuff is just poor. Minors and majors are two very different worlds.

 

I have seen a lot of debuts of pitchers who are still kids and they step up since day one while showing what I call great stuff —command, control, dominance and a great repertory. Sorry but I just don't see the later on Bello, at least not yet.

 

Said that, hopefully he improves and can make the rotation. We need pitchers badly.

[moonslav59]

I haven't seen him in minors but what he has shown thus far in majors indicates me that either he is not ready (and is far to be as I see it) and/or his stuff is just poor. Minors and majors are two very different worlds.

 

I have seen a lot of debuts of pitchers who are still kids and they step up since day one while showing what I call great stuff —command, control, dominance and a great repertory. Sorry but I just don't see the later on Bello, at least not yet.

 

Said that, hopefully he improves and can make the rotation. We need pitchers badly.

 

There are also a lot of examples where pitchers had bad to very bad starts and then became great, sometimes shortly afterwards- sometimes a few years later.

 

I'm impatient, too. It's been too long since our last prospect pitcher made good with us. (Houck?)

[iortiz]

There are also a lot of examples where pitchers had bad to very bad starts and then became great, sometimes shortly afterwards- sometimes a few years later.

 

I'm impatient, too. It's been too long since our last prospect pitcher made good with us. (Houck?)

Sure, everything is possible. Time will tell though.

[moonslav59]

Sure, everything is possible. Time will tell though.

 

I wouldn't call it a longshot- not that you did.

 

He's got good stuff, and although he walks too many batters, it's not like DHern territory. Plus, he just turned 23.

[Hugh2]

I haven't seen him in minors but what he has shown thus far in majors indicates me that either he is not ready (and is far to be as I see it) and/or his stuff is just poor. Minors and majors are two very different worlds.

 

I have seen a lot of debuts of pitchers who are still kids and they step up since day one while showing what I call great stuff —command, control, dominance and a great repertory. Sorry but I just don't see the later on Bello, at least not yet.

 

Said that, hopefully he improves and can make the rotation. We need pitchers badly.

 

And how many of those were 22 year olds in Boston? Bellow got great stuff, stuff doesn’t change from minors to majors only the opponents do. Bellow got it, he just has to put it together at this final level. He’s probably got some of the best we’ve seen in years (coming out of our farm) trust me. Still has to translate to the bigs though, I get that, but I’m banking on him.

Edited August 30, 2022 by A Red Sox fan named Hugh

[Hugh2]

I wouldn't call it a longshot- not that you did.

 

He's got good stuff, and although he walks too many batters, it's not like DHern territory. Plus, he just turned 23.

 

looking at his BB/9 his entire MiLB career has me unconcerned with 20 MLB innings. Not even close to DH

[Hugh2]

Bellow lol. Bello*

 

All errors are on Siri and not my fault.

[moonslav59]

looking at his BB/9 his entire MiLB career has me unconcerned with 20 MLB innings. Not even close to DH

 

Indeed. That's why I said it's not like he's in DHern territory.

[Larry Cook]

T Miller with two taters tonight, now has 13 on the season!

 

Go war eagle!

[moonslav59]

Wong hit another HR (14th) and Enmauel Valdez is 1-4 w 2 RBI. Mata walked 4 in 3 IP (2 H, 1 ER). Wong has 7 HRs in his last 14 games,

 

Wilyer Abreu is 3-4 w BB, so far w POR. Koss 2-5 with 14 dinger. Kavadas 1-4 w BB. Binelas 1-3 w 2B. Hamilton 1-3 w 2BB.

Edited August 31, 2022 by moonslav59

[iortiz]

And how many of those were 22 year olds in Boston? Bellow got great stuff, stuff doesn’t change from minors to majors only the opponents do. Bellow got it, he just has to put it together at this final level. He’s probably got some of the best we’ve seen in years (coming out of our farm) trust me. Still has to translate to the bigs though, I get that, but I’m banking on him.

 

Hopefully your assessments on Bello are right mate. I just don't think he is ready since his "stuff" does not impress me yet.

[moonslav59]

Hopefully your assessments on Bello are right mate. I just don't think he is ready since his "stuff" does not impress me yet.

 

Part of "impressing" is looking at runs allowed, and on that front, it looks like Bello is failing, miserably, but some of those runs have come off hits on some nice pitches.

 

I've been seeing some very encouraging signs, already.

 

Maybe he was rushed a little, due to all the injuries, but I'm not so sure. He has had a learning experience, and I think it has helped.

[Old Red]

Part of "impressing" is looking at runs allowed, and on that front, it looks like Bello is failing, miserably, but some of those runs have come off hits on some nice pitches.

 

I've been seeing some very encouraging signs, already.

 

Maybe he was rushed a little, due to all the injuries, but I'm not so sure. He has had a learning experience, and I think it has helped.

I don’t think there is any question that Bello was rushed, and wasn’t ready for the Big time. He’s a work in progress, and needs consistency at this point. How good he will become time will tell, but I think the arm is there to be pretty good.

[Larry Cook]

Wong with his 15th tater of the season tonight.

 

Is he in Boston tomorrow?

[Larry Cook]

At Portland, Northcut with his 4th Portland tater of the season and Wilson with his 10th tater of the season.

[Larry Cook]

Seabold pitching the game of his life today!

 

7 innings 3 hits, zero runs, zero walks and 7 strikeouts.

[moonslav59]

Wong with his 15th tater of the season tonight.

 

Is he in Boston tomorrow?

 

* HRs in 15 games... Nah! He'll spoil the tank job.

[moonslav59]

I don’t think there is any question that Bello was rushed, and wasn’t ready for the Big time. He’s a work in progress, and needs consistency at this point. How good he will become time will tell, but I think the arm is there to be pretty good.

 

I'm not disagreeing, because I do think they would not have called up Bello, had there not been so many injuries and fizzle outs by those they tried before him, but just a quick question- no malice intended:

 

Do you think every prospect who looks awful out of the gate was rushed?