Sox sign James Paxton

[Jasonbay44]

1 year $10 million with club option for 2nd year per Jeff Passan

[Jasonbay44]

He looked really bad the time last time he pitched and is coming off Tommy John surgery and is now 33… I guess we’ll see but not too excited about the move

[notin]

He looked really bad the time last time he pitched and is coming off Tommy John surgery and is now 33… I guess we’ll see but not too excited about the move

 

 

He’s also out until July/August.

 

While he did check a few boxes, he’s a stretch drive addition and maybe a piece for 2023…

[redsoxrules]

Wtf, 10 Mil for a guy who can't even pitch until potentially August. Great Value there Bloom.

[Bellhorn04]

I'm fine with it. Still trust what Bloom is doing.

[jacksonianmarch]

Big Maple got cut down a couple years ago and is now a table somewhere. His body is destroyed, but Bloom signed him. So I expect him to be lights out for you down the stretch and head your rotation in 23

[bkzwhitestrican]

Not a bad move. He's a high injury risk but could be a legit starter.

[moonslav59]

I read the second year option (plus maybe bonuses) could bring the cost up to $35M/2- really 1.3 to 1.5 seasons.

 

I hope Bloom knows what he's doing, but I have serious doubts on this one.

[Bellhorn04]

I read the second year option (plus maybe bonuses) could bring the cost up to $35M/2- really 1.3 to 1.5 seasons.

 

I hope Bloom knows what he's doing, but I have serious doubts on this one.

 

The way I read it, the option covers 2023 and 2024, so 2.3 to 2.5.

[moonslav59]

The way I read it, the option covers 2023 and 2024, so 2.3 to 2.5.

 

Ahh. I knew that sounded fishy.

 

So it might end up at $35M/3, assuming e take the options.

 

That makes more sense.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

I read the second year option (plus maybe bonuses) could bring the cost up to $35M/2- really 1.3 to 1.5 seasons.

 

I hope Bloom knows what he's doing, but I have serious doubts on this one.

 

He always knows what he's doing, which is what he was hired for. Dinosaurs like me always want the best players available to join my team, but young front office guys are looking for the better values. And now that starting pitchers barely work half the innings of games these days, it can make sense to spend half as much on them.

 

How many pennants have the Yankees won with Cole? How did it work out for the '20 champs after they signed the Cy Young winner last year? Why not sign four mediocre pitchers with careers half-full instead of one old Scherzer who could break down at any minute?

[Old Red]

Ahh. I knew that sounded fishy.

 

So it might end up at $35M/3, assuming e take the options.

 

That makes more sense.

 

I don’t know why it took you so long to figure this out, but my read on this is that you might not get anything out of him next year at all, but if he gets healthy, and gives you 2 years of decent pitching after that it pretty much comes down to $35M for 2 years of pitching. Lots of ifs in there, but I would have rather had E Rod. Not to mention your also spending $8M more on Whack a.

[mvp 78]

Wtf, 10 Mil for a guy who can't even pitch until potentially August. Great Value there Bloom.

 

The option years better be good.

[moonslav59]

He always knows what he's doing, which is what he was hired for. Dinosaurs like me always want the best players available to join my team, but young front office guys are looking for the better values. And now that starting pitchers barely work half the innings of games these days, it can make sense to spend half as much on them.

 

How many pennants have the Yankees won with Cole? How did it work out for the '20 champs after they signed the Cy Young winner last year? Why not sign four mediocre pitchers with careers half-full instead of one old Scherzer who could break down at any minute?

 

The Nats won with Scherzer.

We won with price in 2018.

The Astros won with Verlander in 2017.

 

The model for winning can take many shapes.

[moonslav59]

The option years better be good.

 

This move suggests we are looking more towards 2023 and 2024 than 2022, although Paxton could give us a boost in '22 like Sale did, this year.

[notin]

He always knows what he's doing, which is what he was hired for. Dinosaurs like me always want the best players available to join my team, but young front office guys are looking for the better values. And now that starting pitchers barely work half the innings of games these days, it can make sense to spend half as much on them.

 

How many pennants have the Yankees won with Cole? How did it work out for the '20 champs after they signed the Cy Young winner last year? Why not sign four mediocre pitchers with careers half-full instead of one old Scherzer who could break down at any minute?

 

I think there is a lot of truth to that.

 

The Dodgers went all in on Bauer, and now they’ll do anything short of a murder-for-hire scheme to get out of that deal…

[mvp 78]

If he starts 5 games, it'll be more innings than he's pitched in the past 24 months.

 

My expectations were low, but 10M for 2 months of Paxton?

[mvp 78]

I think there is a lot of truth to that.

 

The Dodgers went all in on Bauer, and now they’ll do anything short of a murder-for-hire scheme to get out of that deal…

 

That's a plot twist they could definitely film in Culver City.

[moonslav59]

If he starts 5 games, it'll be more innings than he's pitched in the past 24 months.

 

My expectations were low, but 10M for 2 months of Paxton?

 

It has to be much more about '23 & '24.

[mvp 78]

It has to be much more about '23 & '24.

 

I have lots of faith in injury prone pitchers as they age into their mid 30's.

[Old Red]

This move suggests we are looking more towards 2023 and 2024 than 2022, although Paxton could give us a boost in '22 like Sale did, this year.

 

Paxton’s surgery was later than Sales, so it will probably be later if he comes back at all next year, so don’t count on any boost.

[moonslav59]

I have lots of faith in injury prone pitchers as they age into their mid 30's.

 

So, instead of not signing healthy 30+ pitchers to long term deals, we've decided to sign unhealthy 30+ pitchers to short term deals.

 

Lovely!

 

The normal 12-14 month timetable might mean we get him back in July or August, but there will likely be a period for adjusting to the "new arm."

 

I wouldn't count on much of anything from him, even in September.

[Hugh2]

Perfect low-risk high-reward move.

 

Guy could be a huge asset towards the end of 2022, and if he returns to form they could have a really pitcher for two years on the cheap.

[S5Dewey]

I like the Paxton signing. Some pitchers come back stronger after TJ surgery. Paxton should be ready to go mid-season and Bloom is willing to pay $10M to gamble that he will come back stronger - or at least as good as he was in his late 20's. If he comes back like the Paxton of old he's worth probably $10M in today's market and if he comes back stronger he's a bargain at $10M. OTOH if he comes back a bust they're only out one year and "only" $10M.

[S5Dewey]

So, instead of not signing healthy 30+ pitchers to long term deals, we've decided to sign unhealthy 30+ pitchers to short term deals.

 

Lovely!

 

The normal 12-14 month timetable might mean we get him back in July or August, but there will likely be a period for adjusting to the "new arm."

 

I wouldn't count on much of anything from him, even in September.

 

All I'm counting on from Paxton in 2022 is a glimpse of what he could be.

 

This deal isn't entirely unlike the Sale deal only in smaller numbers. The Sox gave up a lot in prospects to sign a guy whose motion practically SCREAMED "TJ SURGERY!". The Sox signed him knowing that there was a good chance that he'd lose a year or more to the surgery not being sure how it would work out, but the upside was huge and made it worthwhile.

 

In the case of Paxton they're not paying a king's ransom to get him and it's somewhat the same thing a Sale with smaller numbers and lower expectations.

[moonslav59]

I like the Paxton signing. Some pitchers come back stronger after TJ surgery. Paxton should be ready to go mid-season and Bloom is willing to pay $10M to gamble that he will come back stronger - or at least as good as he was in his late 20's. If he comes back like the Paxton of old he's worth probably $10M in today's market and if he comes back stronger he's a bargain at $10M. OTOH if he comes back a bust they're only out one year and "only" $10M.

 

I wonder, if there is a buy out for year 2 and 3.

 

soxprospects.com lists his salary at $12.5M for 2022 and 2023 with 2024 left blank. If they are accurate, maybe there is a $2.5M buyout after 2022- making it a $12.5M/1 deal, a $25M/2 deal or a $35M/3 deal- team choice.

 

I've also read only $10M is guaranteed.

[moonslav59]

All I'm counting on from Paxton in 2022 is a glimpse of what he could be.

 

This deal isn't entirely unlike the Sale deal only in smaller numbers. The Sox gave up a lot in prospects to sign a guy whose motion practically SCREAMED "TJ SURGERY!". The Sox signed him knowing that there was a good chance that he'd lose a year or more to the surgery not being sure how it would work out, but the upside was huge and made it worthwhile.

 

In the case of Paxton they're not paying a king's ransom to get him and it's somewhat the same thing a Sale with smaller numbers and lower expectations.

 

Good points.

 

I just think this signing is more about '23 & '24 and what we get in '22 is just a bonus.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

The Nats won with Scherzer.

We won with price in 2018.

The Astros won with Verlander in 2017.

 

The model for winning can take many shapes.

 

I didn't forget any of those, but mound trends have definitely changed in the just the past year alone. The best postseason starts in '21 came from mostly young guys, many of them rookies (though it's still a bit paranormal how Valdez and Garcia were suddenly hitless in back-to-back games and relatively ineffective the rest of October).

[moonslav59]

I didn't forget any of those, but mound trends have definitely changed in the just the past year alone. The best postseason starts in '21 came from mostly young guys, many of them rookies (though it's still a bit paranormal how Valdez and Garcia were suddenly hitless in back-to-back games and relatively ineffective the rest of October).

 

Trends can change on a dime- sometimes emulating the last champion's or champions' strategy.

 

I do think this trend will continue and may even swing even more towards extended pen us before it swings back.

 

It's one reason I wish we could get some SP'ers, so we can keep Houck and Whitlock in long relief roles in 2022. They could be a dynamic duo.

 

[mvp 78]

So, instead of not signing healthy 30+ pitchers to long term deals, we've decided to sign unhealthy 30+ pitchers to short term deals.

 

Lovely!

 

The normal 12-14 month timetable might mean we get him back in July or August, but there will likely be a period for adjusting to the "new arm."

 

I wouldn't count on much of anything from him, even in September.

 

If they don't go over the lux tax cap again, this 10M is a huge waste for 2022.