The Official 2021 ALCS Thread

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

You can't give free passes to anyone in October.

 

Especially to the Astros, who led the majors in putting runners on base and in driving them in.

[mvp 78]

Does Dalbec have a role to play against lefties who throw breaking balls?

 

Yes, Dalbec is worse against the heat.

[moonslav59]

The Houston talk show hosts are all saying the Astros have to conatin the big 3- Devers, Bogey and JD, and not worry about the "B players." What a joke!

 

Schwarber has the best numbers of any other Sox player, and guys like Kike, Renfroe and Verdugo have been lighting it up. Dalbec has struggles, recently but was the team's best hitter the last 2 months.

 

Schwarber (.957), Dalbec (.955), Renfroe (.858) and Kike (.832) all outhit Bogey and JD after the all star break. (Devers .862)

[mvp 78]

I never said the rampant pessimism was baseless.

 

My point, all along, was that this team (and every AL team) had been having incredible flips between looking real good and looking real bad. Even that long stretch of near .500 ball had some very nice runs, where we look as good or better than the early season Sox, and then suddenly such an awful stretch that no wonder people lost hope.

 

I looked at the fact that we got Sale & Houck back and added Schwarber at the deadline. I knew he hadn't played 1B, and OF was not a high need area, but the guy was one of the best and hottest hitters of 2021. I felt like we were a better team, despite the worse record, but also that maybe the first 3 months was a bit of a fluke, especially with all the close and come from behind wins.

 

I mostly asked the doubters why they felt a team that had "turned on a dime" a couple dozen times all year long, was all of a sudden, incapable of doing it one more time, despite adding 3 very good players and seeing guys like Robles, Iggy, Shaw and others making magic.

 

In reality, we could turn on a dime again and get swept. Probably the bashers would come right back in force and say, "I knew we could never win," but to me, this year has been the perfect storm. No doubt, every single AL team had major flaws. That is one of the few things I got right about 2021. The Astros could just as easily get swept by us, too.

 

I've never bought into the philosophy that says things like this, "If we can't even beat the O's, when we need a win, there is no way we deserve to make the playoffs." You know how many posters said that or similar or worse? (Too many to name.)

 

No one series ever defines a team.

No one week defines a team.

No month, either.

 

Teams change and morph of a long season, too. Sometimes, they can morph in just a few weeks or days.

 

If this season doesn't convince people of the fickleness of baseball, I'm not sure anything can.

 

 

I don't know why you have such a boner for trying to shame other posters' opinions. Calling people doubters and bashers is BDC s***. We've moved beyond the days of calling people pinks hats and pollyannas or whatever. There's not enough people on here anymore to really go around alienating people. We're all fans of the Red Sox and sometimes I don't think you understand that.

[moonslav59]

I don't know why you have such a boner for trying to shame other posters' opinions. Calling people doubters and bashers is BDC s***. We've moved beyond the days of calling people pinks hats and pollyannas or whatever. There's not enough people on here anymore to really go around alienating people. We're all fans of the Red Sox and sometimes I don't think you understand that.

 

There is no "boner," and I have no beef with the doubters. Everyone doubts.

 

You may call it "shaming," but I don't see it that way. I also don't think I'm alienating people. People are pretty harsh towards me for my opinion, and I don't think I'm doing anything worse or more than others.

 

Part of the reason I keep going on about what happened when the team was struggling, is responding to those who replied to my initial posts. Max commented that I have to " think you have to grant that some pessimism was warranted." I responded to that post. I wasn't going on and on, unsolicited.

 

I have my opinions and say what they are. I feel several posters here are much more alienating than I am, but when is the last time you called 700 out?

 

I certainly understand there are a wide variety of fans, and people handle frustration and team losses in different ways. I shouldn't be shamed for pointing out what I disagree with.

Edited October 15, 2021 by moonslav59

[Fan_since_Boggs]

Those damn dodgers at it again. Idk how the Braves can beat them. They might head back to the World Series. Ughh

 

The Dodgers scare me. I think every Red Sox fan was rooting for the Giants to win and of course will be rooting for the Braves to win. In contrast, every Yankees fan was and is rooting for the Dodgers to win believing that the Dodgers have the best chance of beating the Red Sox or the hated Astros in the World Series.

[Nick]

LONGLEY: Red Sox surge painful reminder of what could have been for Blue Jays

https://torontosun.com/sports/baseball/toronto-blue-jays/longley-red-sox-surge-painful-reminder-of-what-could-have-been-for-blue-jays

 

Great Read

[Maxbialystock]

Every season has its surprises, but this one is memorable in that regard. First half, mostly winning despite low expectations before the season started, second half mostly treading water (.500). Then in September winning 7 straight, then losing 5 of 6 to the Yankees and Orioles, then turning right around and winning 3 of 3 at the Nats (no DH), beating the Yankees and Cole 6-2 in the wild card game, and taking 3 of 4 from the 100 games-winning Rays in the ALDS. Astounding.

 

Right now, before game one of the ALCS--which a month ago seemed completely out of reach--the Sox have a real shot at the World Series because their lineup is fearsome, their defense is almost decent, and their pitching looks a tad better than the Astros. All that is true despite the fact that the Astros run differential this season was +205 to the Sox +80.

 

Still, you gotta play the games, and the Astros are a tough out.

[mvp 78]

The Dodgers scare me. I think every Red Sox fan was rooting for the Giants to win and of course will be rooting for the Braves to win. In contrast, every Yankees fan was and is rooting for the Dodgers to win believing that the Dodgers have the best chance of beating the Red Sox or the hated Astros in the World Series.

 

There's no bigger validation to a championship than going through the Yanks/Rays/Stros/Dodgers. IF the Sox did that, nobody could say this was a fluke like 2013.

[Maxbialystock]

The Dodgers scare me. I think every Red Sox fan was rooting for the Giants to win and of course will be rooting for the Braves to win. In contrast, every Yankees fan was and is rooting for the Dodgers to win believing that the Dodgers have the best chance of beating the Red Sox or the hated Astros in the World Series.

 

It was a great NLDS, one of the best ever. I rooted for the Giants but think the better team won.

[Slasher9]

Fyi....tix for games 3,4,5 are on sale now. Get em if you want em.

[Bellhorn04]

There's no bigger validation to a championship than going through the Yanks/Rays/Stros/Dodgers. IF the Sox did that, nobody could say this was a fluke like 2013.

 

The '2013 was a fluke' thing was more about the last place finishes before and after, no?

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

A case could be made that the Astros have better all-around players at every position except centerfield and catcher. The pitching staffs as currently constituted are almost impossible to compare because the Red Sox starters (except Nate, so far) are also basically closers and in-betweeners.

 

But can Dusty hang with AC? Maybe Cora has necessitated a new phrase for the chronology of playoff pitching usage -- where in any game the starting rotation can become the ending rotation.

[moonslav59]

The Dodgers scare me. I think every Red Sox fan was rooting for the Giants to win and of course will be rooting for the Braves to win. In contrast, every Yankees fan was and is rooting for the Dodgers to win believing that the Dodgers have the best chance of beating the Red Sox or the hated Astros in the World Series.

 

I'd like to face Betts & the Dodgers, but I won't be upset if the Braves win.

[mvp 78]

The '2013 was a fluke' thing was more about the last place finishes before and after, no?

 

I think some people were saying "fluke" even right after, not that jacko is unbiased or anything. Also, the 2014 team was only a last place team because they traded half of their starting pitching (like how 2020 had half of a rotation). The terrible 2015 team was a Cherington creation and the reason he was replaced.

[jad]

There's no bigger validation to a championship than going through the Yanks/Rays/Stros/Dodgers. IF the Sox did that, nobody could say this was a fluke like 2013.

 

Sure they could, and would. Maybe from the Giants fans who claim, like two-year olds, it's UNFAIR to end a season on a check-swing.

[moonslav59]

The '2013 was a fluke' thing was more about the last place finishes before and after, no?

 

I think the fact that we made no big splash signings that winter was part of it.

 

I remember being critical about management "playing it halfway" and felt like they should have either gone total youth rebuild or total in for 2013.

 

I think it went beyond the last place finish.

[Bellhorn04]

I think some people were saying "fluke" even right after, not that jacko is unbiased or anything.

 

We beat some good teams in the 2013 postseason though.

[mvp 78]

A case could be made that the Astros have better all-around players at every position except centerfield and catcher. The pitching staffs as currently constituted are almost impossible to compare because the Red Sox starters (except Nate, so far) are also basically closers and in-betweeners.

 

But can Dusty hang with AC? Maybe Cora has necessitated a new phrase for the chronology of playoff pitching usage -- where in any game the starting rotation can become the ending rotation.

 

Right now, Devers is better than Bregman. Bregman hasn't had the same production since 2019. Castro also had a higher fWAR than Vaz or Plawecki.

[mvp 78]

We beat some good teams in the 2013 postseason though.

 

Cards were the best NL team, but Rays were a 5th seed and Tigers were a 3rd seed. Can't get an easier seeding than that.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

I think some people were saying "fluke" even right after, not that jacko is unbiased or anything. Also, the 2014 team was only a last place team because they traded half of their starting pitching (like how 2020 had half of a rotation). The terrible 2015 team was a Cherington creation and the reason he was replaced.

 

The 2013 Red Sox had the most wins in the majors. They finished first and weren't underdogs in the postseason (even though we knew Detroit's Cy Young rotation would be tough).

 

Bell's right that the surprise was with how quickly they turned around from '12. The new guys made positive contributions, but Boston still had plenty of star players and bounce-back pitchers. The only fluke was Koji having a better season than any even Mo Rivera ever had.

[mvp 78]

How I'd rank the Sox WS runs in terms of opponent difficulty:

 

2018 Sox (Yankees 100 wins, Astros 103 wins, Dodgers 92 wins)

2004 Sox (Angels 92 wins, Yankees 101 wins, Cardinals 105 wins)

2013 Sox (Tampa 92 wins, Detroit 93 wins, Cardinals 97 wins)

2007 Sox (Angels 94 wins, Guardians 96 wins, Rockies 90 wins)

[Maxbialystock]

About Sale vs. Valdez tonight. I prefer Eovaldi, but trust Cora, who says Sale rediscovered his best stuff in some bullpen sessions.

 

Valdez was really tough vs. the Sox June 8 @ Houston and June 2 @ Fenway: 14.1 innings, 2 ER's, 18 K's, 2 BB's. He went 4.1 vs. the White Sox a week ago and gave up 4 runs. And a week before that he went 5 vs. the A's, also giving up 4 runs. But he pitched 24 innings in September with an ERA of 3.28.

 

Both teams have rested bullpens, so the edge in starters may not mean much.

 

Both teams are hitting well in the postseason.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Right now, Devers is better than Bregman. Bregman hasn't had the same production since 2019. Castro also had a higher fWAR than Vaz or Plawecki.

 

Maybe; I said "a case could be made." Bregman is arguably better all-around -- though I hope he's not Brooks Robinson again like he was in the '18 LCS.

 

Maldonado was Houston's catcher in the ALDS. Vaz is at least a better hitter in late-and-close...

[mvp 78]

The 2013 Red Sox had the most wins in the majors. They finished first and weren't underdogs in the postseason (even though we knew Detroit's Cy Young rotation would be tough).

 

Bell's right that the surprise was with how quickly they turned around from '12. The new guys made positive contributions, but Boston still had plenty of star players and bounce-back pitchers. The only fluke was Koji having a better season than any even Mo Rivera ever had.

 

The 2011 team was supposedly the greatest Sox team of all time on 4/1/11. Due to injuries, they missed the playoffs on game 162. They played .500 ball in 2012 and traded 3 players midseason because they made the shittiest manager hire in my lifetime. In the offseason, they replenished what was traded away and became contenders. It wasn't all that surprising.

[mvp 78]

Maybe; I said "a case could be made." Bregman is arguably better all-around -- though I hope he's not Brooks Robinson again like he was in the '18 LCS.

 

Maldonado was Houston's catcher in the ALDS. Vaz is at least a better hitter in late-and-close...

 

I just made a case that Devers is better. No big deal. Bregman was a better player in 18 and 19, but he hasn't played that way in recent memory.

[moonslav59]

The 2011 team was supposedly the greatest Sox team of all time on 4/1/11. Due to injuries, they missed the playoffs on game 162. They played .500 ball in 2012 and traded 3 players midseason because they made the shittiest manager hire in my lifetime. In the offseason, they replenished what was traded away and became contenders. It wasn't all that surprising.

 

I don't think people thought Vic, Napoli and Dempster were any better than AGon & Beckett.

[Bellhorn04]

Cards were the best NL team, but Rays were a 5th seed and Tigers were a 3rd seed. Can't get an easier seeding than that.

 

That Tigers team was better than their record. Run differential of +172 for a 99-63 Pythagorean. Verlander and Scherzer. They were a tough opponent.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

How I'd rank the Sox WS runs in terms of opponent difficulty:

 

2018 Sox (Yankees 100 wins, Astros 103 wins, Dodgers 92 wins)

2004 Sox (Angels 92 wins, Yankees 101 wins, Cardinals 105 wins)

2013 Sox (Tampa 92 wins, Detroit 93 wins, Cardinals 97 wins)

2007 Sox (Angels 94 wins, Guardians 96 wins, Rockies 90 wins)

 

This is a good order. In '18, Altuve and Correa weren't 100 percent, but we all have our nagging issues...

 

...like JD and Rafie this October. Just look at their postseason OPS so far: JD 1.200, Devers 1.067!

[Maxbialystock]

There's no bigger validation to a championship than going through the Yanks/Rays/Stros/Dodgers. IF the Sox did that, nobody could say this was a fluke like 2013.

 

2013 is flukish only because the Sox pitching was so great in the postseason--an insane ERA of 2.59. Lester went 34.2 innings with an ERA of 1.56. Lackey 26 innings and 2.77, plus he won than pitching duel against Verlander, 1-0. And of course Uehara pitched 13.2 innings with an ERA of .66. The Sox lineup meanwhile had a cumulative OPS of .664, but did get some timely hits, especially from Ortiz and Victorino.