The Official 2021 ALCS Thread

[Slasher9]

I do think it might be fun if, on the first home game, Fenway had a "trash can lid and hammer" giveaway night and the fans all pounded on them every time Altuve, Bregman and Correa came to bat.

 

At least, it might be fun for like 2 innings...

 

thats a pretty funny idea.

 

the vuvuvella guys at the South Arica World Cup a number of years back would agree with you

[mvp 78]

thats a pretty funny idea.

 

the vuvuvella guys at the South Arica World Cup a number of years back would agree with you

 

With all your time traipsing around the world trying to save it, you couldn't even find one editor. Sad!

[Slasher9]

vuvuzella

Africa

 

weed is legal in NJ now

[Slasher9]

I feel so safe.

 

sup A.

helluva season our boys are having.

[mvp 78]

vuvuzella

Africa

 

weed is legal in NJ now

 

King

[mvp 78]

@PeteAbe

Framber Valdez and Luis Garcia starting the first two games for Houston per Dusty Baker.

Valdez beat the Sox twice this season: 14.1 IP, 10 H, 2 ER, 2 BB, 18 K.

[d-money]

Our pitching has to contain that offense and an they finally beat Valdez?

[Bellhorn04]

If turn-arounds are the norm, should we expect a tail-spin in the near future then?

 

Our hot streak is only 8 games old. They can last a month.

[moonslav59]

If turn-arounds are the norm, should we expect a tail-spin in the near future then?

 

I'm not going to bring that up and jinx us, but sure, it is possible and maybe probable, but then again, the opps could flip to bad, too or at the same time.

 

All teams still alive are, in theory, "hot."

 

All AL teams have been up and down all year.

[a700hitter]

sup A.

helluva season our boys are having.

It has been a lot of fun.

[moonslav59]

@PeteAbe

Framber Valdez and Luis Garcia starting the first two games for Houston per Dusty Baker.

Valdez beat the Sox twice this season: 14.1 IP, 10 H, 2 ER, 2 BB, 18 K.

 

Perfect. We are ripe to blast this guy into orbit!

[oldtimer]

I haven't seen an official roster for the Sox ALCS as yet and assume it has not been released. My interest is in the BP and whether the Sox will make any changes from the ALDS. Clearly I don't have specifics about the health and current feel the coaching staff has regarding the players I'll mention. My comments are based on my observations only.

 

1. Barnes vs Swamamura.

 

Matt had a poor second half and his only useage in the ALDS was when we had an 8 run lead, which indicates a lack of trust. When he came in he had command problems and struggled to get through an inning.

 

Swamamura has equal velocity with movement and has an effective splitter. He is an experienced pitcher and in my view would be able to give the team an effective inning here and there. I would choose him over Barnes and reevaluate for the WS, should we make it that far.

 

 

2. Perez and/or Davis vs D-Hern

 

Here I think that Perez is on the roster to pitch in games where we have a low probability of winning. Hard to say how many runs behind and in what inning that decision would be made. The use would be to save our high leverage relievers from over use and exposure. I think he is kept on for that reason as his effectiveness is questionable.

 

Davis is a guy who is there to be inserted to get lefties out. he is fairly effective in that role but struggles against righties. He has more experience than D-Hern but probably less whiff capability.

 

D-Hern is a harder thrower and has a lot of movement on his pitches. His command and experience in a big role might be called into question. I think it is too close to call between Davis and D-Hern so I would be satisfied with either.

 

Don't know of any other BP changes being considered.

[YastrzemskI]

Sale getting the ball in game one.

Eovaldi is set for game two.

 

Cora just made the announcement.

[Fan_since_Boggs]

Against Valdez (lefty), do the Red Sox sit Verdugo, play Schwarber in LF, and Dalbec at 1b? Dalbec has been crap in the postseason, I'm not sure I would go with him, but it is hard to overlook Verdugo's numbers against lefties.

 

I would keep the OF defense strong, play Schwarber at 1b and keep Verdugo in the lineup in LF.

 

Against Valdez, my lineup would look like this:

 

Herndandez CF

Schwarber 1b

Bogaerts SS

Martinez DH

Devers 3b

Renfroe RF

Arroyo 2b

Vazquez C

Verdugo LF

 

I would put Verdugo in the ninth spot with the hope that he doesn't face Valdez twice.

Edited October 14, 2021 by Fan_since_Boggs

[oldtimer]

Against Valdez (lefty), do the Red Sox sit Verdugo, play Schwarber in LF, and Dalbec at 1b? Dalbec has been crap in the postseason, I'm not sure I would go with him, but it is hard to overlook Verdugo's numbers against lefties.

 

I would keep the OF defense strong, play Schwarber at 1b and keep Verdugo in the lineup in LF.

 

Against Valdez, my lineup would look like this:

 

Herndandez CF

Schwarber 1b

Bogaerts SS

Martinez DH

Devers 3b

Renfroe RF

Arroyo 2b

Vazquez C

Verdugo LF

 

I would put Verdugo in the ninth spot with the hope that he doesn't face Valdez twice.

 

Does Dalbec have a role to play against lefties who throw breaking balls?

[moonslav59]

Sale getting the ball in game one.

Eovaldi is set for game two.

 

Cora just made the announcement.

 

I'm quite surprised. Starting Eovaldi game 1 gives him more options, later in the series and may set him up better for the WS, if we get there.

 

Gutsy call and really putting the weight on Sale.

 

No kiddie gloves, here.

[a700hitter]

Hasn’t Sale had trouble with the Stros?

[moonslav59]

Hasn’t Sale had trouble with the Stros?

 

Doesn't everybody?

 

Seriously though, career...

 

5-3 2.20 (.498 OPS Against is one of his best)

 

He hasn't faced them, this year.

 

0-1 3.97 in 2 starts in 2019

[Maxbialystock]

It sounded like some were hoping we'd lose to "put us out of our misery."

 

The whole "this team has no chance to win," to me, really meant, if we keep playing like this, but when I pressed posters to explain about meaning "playing like this" or not, they spoke of no chance to turn things around.

 

I tried pointing out how many turn arounds we had, all year. Good to bad- bad to good, starting with losing 3 @ BAL then winning 9 in a row, but some would have nothing of any hint of optimism.

 

We were playing like s***, and there was no way that could change.

 

If this season should have taught us anything, it was that turn-arounds were the norm- not the exception, and not just with the Sox. Almost the whole AL was wildly inconsistent.

 

The Sox were 54-32 on July 5, seemingly headed for 102 wins, but played .500 the rest of the year, so I think you have to grant that some pessimism was warranted.

 

That said, one of your regular comments all season long was that every team had its weaknesses, and my thought is that Cora is especially good at working around those weaknesses. Bloom helped when he picked up Schwarber and Robles and much later Iglesias, who's sitting out the postseason.

 

The Sox postseason upswing--taking 4 of 5 games from the Yankees and Rays--is not luck no matter how many times espn and others bring up that ground rule double in the 13th inning of game 3. In fact, right now Cora has the best lineup he's had all season. With Schwarber at 1b, he can even keep his "good outfield" of Dugo, Kike, and Renfroe.

 

His pitching, however, is less than ideal, what with ERod and Sale crapping out in games 1 and 2. Enter, stage right, Cora's long relievers--no longer Valdez and Richards, but Whitlock and especially Houck and Pivetta, both former starters. The latter two were crucial to the game 2 and game 3 wins.

Edited October 15, 2021 by Maxbialystock

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

While we can only surmise about the actual health of current players, we do know that Valdez and Garcia beat a Red Sox lineup twice each five months ago.

 

A lot can change by the Fall, two seasons after the Spring, including the condition of pitchers' arms. The White Sox, a step behind the Red Sox in offense all year, knocked around both Valdez and Garcia just last week.

 

Meanwhile the Boston batting order has definitely changed since Memorial Day. Some hitters have even morphed or peaked in October. For example, Verdugo has thrived in this postseason environment -- eight hits in five games, tied with Kike and Rafie with six RBIs, making big plays -- he stays in my lineup.

 

Of course, if a guy like Martin Perez makes the ALCS roster, it can only be because he threw the best of all Red Sox vs. Houston last June, with 7 2/3 shutout innings (pre-sticky stuff ban).

[Maxbialystock]

It sounded like some were hoping we'd lose to "put us out of our misery."

 

The whole "this team has no chance to win," to me, really meant, if we keep playing like this, but when I pressed posters to explain about meaning "playing like this" or not, they spoke of no chance to turn things around.

 

I tried pointing out how many turn arounds we had, all year. Good to bad- bad to good, starting with losing 3 @ BAL then winning 9 in a row, but some would have nothing of any hint of optimism.

 

We were playing like s***, and there was no way that could change.

 

If this season should have taught us anything, it was that turn-arounds were the norm- not the exception, and not just with the Sox. Almost the whole AL was wildly inconsistent.

 

The Sox were 54-32 on July 5, seemingly headed for 102 wins, but played .500 the rest of the year, so I think you have to grant that some pessimism was warranted.

 

That said, one of your regular comments all season long was that every team had its weaknesses, and my thought is that Cora is especially good at working around those weaknesses. Bloom helped when he picked up Schwarber and Robles and much later Iglesias, who's sitting out the postseason.

 

I do not think the Sox postseason upswing--taking 4 of 5 games from the Yankees and Rays--just luck because right now Cora has the best lineup he's had all season. With Schwarber at 1b, he can even keep his "good outfield" of Dugo, Kike, and Renfroe.

 

And, when the rotation has faltered, Cora has gotten good use out of long relievers like Valdez, Houck, Richards, Whitlock of course, and now in the postseason Pivetta. Houck and Pivetta were huge in relief in games 2 and 3 of the ALDS.

[moonslav59]

The Sox were 54-32 on July 5, seemingly headed for 102 wins, but played .500 the rest of the year, so I think you have to grant that some pessimism was warranted.

 

That said, one of your regular comments all season long was that every team had its weaknesses, and my thought is that Cora is especially good at working around those weaknesses. Bloom helped when he picked up Schwarber and Robles and much later Iglesias, who's sitting out the postseason.

 

The Sox postseason upswing--taking 4 of 5 games from the Yankees and Rays--is not luck no matter how many times espn and others bring up that ground rule double in the 13th inning of game 3. In fact, right now Cora has the best lineup he's had all season. With Schwarber at 1b, he can even keep his "good outfield" of Dugo, Kike, and Renfroe.

 

His pitching, however, is less than ideal, what with ERod and Sale crapping out in games 1 and 2. Enter, stage right, Cora's long relievers--no longer Valdez and Richards, but Whitlock and especially Houck and Pivetta, both former starters. The latter two were crucial to the game 2 and game 3 wins.

 

I never said the rampant pessimism was baseless.

 

My point, all along, was that this team (and every AL team) had been having incredible flips between looking real good and looking real bad. Even that long stretch of near .500 ball had some very nice runs, where we look as good or better than the early season Sox, and then suddenly such an awful stretch that no wonder people lost hope.

 

I looked at the fact that we got Sale & Houck back and added Schwarber at the deadline. I knew he hadn't played 1B, and OF was not a high need area, but the guy was one of the best and hottest hitters of 2021. I felt like we were a better team, despite the worse record, but also that maybe the first 3 months was a bit of a fluke, especially with all the close and come from behind wins.

 

I mostly asked the doubters why they felt a team that had "turned on a dime" a couple dozen times all year long, was all of a sudden, incapable of doing it one more time, despite adding 3 very good players and seeing guys like Robles, Iggy, Shaw and others making magic.

 

In reality, we could turn on a dime again and get swept. Probably the bashers would come right back in force and say, "I knew we could never win," but to me, this year has been the perfect storm. No doubt, every single AL team had major flaws. That is one of the few things I got right about 2021. The Astros could just as easily get swept by us, too.

 

I've never bought into the philosophy that says things like this, "If we can't even beat the O's, when we need a win, there is no way we deserve to make the playoffs." You know how many posters said that or similar or worse? (Too many to name.)

 

No one series ever defines a team.

No one week defines a team.

No month, either.

 

Teams change and morph of a long season, too. Sometimes, they can morph in just a few weeks or days.

 

If this season doesn't convince people of the fickleness of baseball, I'm not sure anything can.

 

[Elktonnick]

I never said the rampant pessimism was baseless.

 

My point, all along, was that this team (and every AL team) had been having incredible flips between looking real good and looking real bad. Even that long stretch of near .500 ball had some very nice runs, where we look as good or better than the early season Sox, and then suddenly such an awful stretch that no wonder people lost hope.

 

I looked at the fact that we got Sale & Houck back and added Schwarber at the deadline. I knew he hadn't played 1B, and OF was not a high need area, but the guy was one of the best and hottest hitters of 2021. I felt like we were a better team, despite the worse record, but also that maybe the first 3 months was a bit of a fluke, especially with all the close and come from behind wins.

 

I mostly asked the doubters why they felt a team that had "turned on a dime" a couple dozen times all year long, was all of a sudden, incapable of doing it one more time, despite adding 3 very good players and seeing guys like Robles, Iggy, Shaw and others making magic.

 

In reality, we could turn on a dime again and get swept. Probably the bashers would come right back in force and say, "I knew we could never win," but to me, this year has been the perfect storm. No doubt, every single AL team had major flaws. That is one of the few things I got right about 2021. The Astros could just as easily get swept by us, too.

 

I've never bought into the philosophy that says things like this, "If we can't even beat the O's, when we need a win, there is no way we deserve to make the playoffs." You know how many posters said that or similar or worse? (Too many to name.)

 

No one series ever defines a team.

No one week defines a team.

No month, either.

 

Teams change and morph of a long season, too. Sometimes, they can morph in just a few weeks or days.

 

If this season doesn't convince people of the fickleness of baseball, I'm not sure anything can.

 

Rampant pessimism is the natural steady state of the diehard Red Sox fan. Hell I am worried with a 7 run lead with two out in the 9 th inning.

[YastrzemskI]

Rampant pessimism is the natural steady state of the diehard Red Sox fan. Hell I am worried with a 7 run lead with two out in the 9 th inning.

 

After winning numerous post season games including four World Series titles?

[d-money]

Those damn dodgers at it again. Idk how the Braves can beat them. They might head back to the World Series. Ughh

[moonslav59]

Rampant pessimism is the natural steady state of the diehard Red Sox fan. Hell I am worried with a 7 run lead with two out in the 9 th inning.

 

I'm all to familiar with rampant and long term pessimism as a long time Sox fan, but it was the finality and rock solid belief that we had zero chance that struck me as odd.

 

Again, I don't blame anyone for being pessimistic. I was in 2019, and someone could have scolded me for not believing in a team that was pretty close to being the same as 2018, on paper.

 

To me, this team showed grit all year, unlike the 2019 team, so I guess I expected most fans to at leats keep a sliver of hope open.

 

[moonslav59]

Those damn dodgers at it again. Idk how the Braves can beat them. They might head back to the World Series. Ughh

 

They just barely snuck by the G's. They also used Scherzer as the closer.

 

I think the Braves will be the more relaxed team and may surprise, but I would not bet on it.

[jad]

After winning numerous post season games including four World Series titles?

 

Yes, of course. 100 WS titles would not make up for following the Sox from the early 50s through the end of the century.

[mvp 78]

I haven't seen an official roster for the Sox ALCS as yet and assume it has not been released. My interest is in the BP and whether the Sox will make any changes from the ALDS. Clearly I don't have specifics about the health and current feel the coaching staff has regarding the players I'll mention. My comments are based on my observations only.

 

1. Barnes vs Swamamura.

 

Matt had a poor second half and his only useage in the ALDS was when we had an 8 run lead, which indicates a lack of trust. When he came in he had command problems and struggled to get through an inning.

 

Swamamura has equal velocity with movement and has an effective splitter. He is an experienced pitcher and in my view would be able to give the team an effective inning here and there. I would choose him over Barnes and reevaluate for the WS, should we make it that far.

 

 

2. Perez and/or Davis vs D-Hern

 

Here I think that Perez is on the roster to pitch in games where we have a low probability of winning. Hard to say how many runs behind and in what inning that decision would be made. The use would be to save our high leverage relievers from over use and exposure. I think he is kept on for that reason as his effectiveness is questionable.

 

Davis is a guy who is there to be inserted to get lefties out. he is fairly effective in that role but struggles against righties. He has more experience than D-Hern but probably less whiff capability.

 

D-Hern is a harder thrower and has a lot of movement on his pitches. His command and experience in a big role might be called into question. I think it is too close to call between Davis and D-Hern so I would be satisfied with either.

 

Don't know of any other BP changes being considered.

 

The decision between Davis and Hernandez is an interesting one. Hernandez is a low floor/high ceiling guy. If he really harnessed his stuff, he'd be a closer. However, I wonder if Cora is less likely to use him in the postseason since he is also apt to walk the bases loaded. Now that pitchers are forced to throw to 3 guys, it's hard to trust a wild reliever who can sometimes just not have it. His 6.98 bb/9 is scary in close games. You can't give free passes to anyone in October.

[mvp 78]

Against Valdez (lefty), do the Red Sox sit Verdugo, play Schwarber in LF, and Dalbec at 1b? Dalbec has been crap in the postseason, I'm not sure I would go with him, but it is hard to overlook Verdugo's numbers against lefties.

 

I would keep the OF defense strong, play Schwarber at 1b and keep Verdugo in the lineup in LF.

 

Against Valdez, my lineup would look like this:

 

Herndandez CF

Schwarber 1b

Bogaerts SS

Martinez DH

Devers 3b

Renfroe RF

Arroyo 2b

Vazquez C

Verdugo LF

 

I would put Verdugo in the ninth spot with the hope that he doesn't face Valdez twice.

 

Valdez can get hit hard (bottom 1% in max exit velocity, 44% hard hit %). Sinker/Curve guy with good movement. LHB actually have a higher OPS against Valdez than RHB. He's not a high velo guy, so I could see the Sox putting Dalbec out there as he's a better low ball hitter. Schwarber also likes the ball down, while Verdugo likes it up. I bet they sit Verdugo and start Schwarber in LF. Arroyo could turn things around today as he's much better against LHP and loves the low and inside pitch.