A Realistic View at 2022: Part I

[moonslav59]

Sox know DHern can be a weapon... but used in the wrong contexts could risk the end of days. In the meantime, more neutral test sites are needed to ensure the safety of children and other living things.

 

Small career sample size, but DHern has one of the best K/9 rates in MLB history.

 

Too bad he walks so many, too.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Small career sample size, but DHern has one of the best K/9 rates in MLB history.

 

Too bad he walks so many, too.

 

That's a big problem in a division that now belongs to Franco and Guerrero (and not quite Judge and Devers, like fans in the big markets still want to believe).

[mvp 78]

That's a big problem in a division that now belongs to Franco and Guerrero (and not quite Judge and Devers, like fans in the big markets still want to believe).

 

Devers and Judge had a higher WRC+ last year than Wander.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Devers and Judge had a higher WRC+ last year than Wander.

 

Wander only played half a year, but gotta like his potential to do more damage as a hitter, just from his 12% K rate, compared to Devers' 21% and Judge at 25%.

 

Vlad the lad was only 15.8%

[mvp 78]

Wander only played half a year, but gotta like his potential to do more damage as a hitter, just from his 12% K rate, compared to Devers' 21% and Judge at 25%.

 

Vlad the lad was only 15.8%

 

I'm not taking anything away from Vlad. Dude is a beast.

 

Wander, we haven't seen enough of to say he's better than Judge or Devers.

[notin]

I'm not taking anything away from Vlad. Dude is a beast.

 

Wander, we haven't seen enough of to say he's better than Judge or Devers.

 

And what we did see from Wander may have been slightly skewed since he feasted on Sox pitching like a frenzy of sharks on a whale carcass…

[moonslav59]

Wander only played half a year, but gotta like his potential to do more damage as a hitter, just from his 12% K rate, compared to Devers' 21% and Judge at 25%.

 

Vlad the lad was only 15.8%

 

Potential, yes, but he ain't past the big two, yet.

[dgalehouse]

dgalehouse: " Houck should be in the rotation." Experts: " No way. He only has two pitches. Can't get through the order a third time Belongs in the bullpen. " Cora: " Houck will be our number 3 starter. " Experts: " Crickets."

[moonslav59]

dgalehouse: " Houck should be in the rotation." Experts: " No way. He only has two pitches. Can't get through the order a third time Belongs in the bullpen. " Cora: " Houck will be our number 3 starter. " Experts: " Crickets."

 

No crickets, here.

 

I'd prefer Whitlock, but both are good enough to start, and both will likely do well as starters.

 

The 2 pitch issue is real. The 3rd time through the line-up is real, but so many starters, these days, are yanked after 2 times through, so it's not such a big deal anymore, to me.

 

If we had a stronger pen, I'd like Houck & Whitlock starting.

 

Also, when we give our opinions, we don't claim Cora & Co. will go with out ideas.

[mvp 78]

dgalehouse: " Houck should be in the rotation." Experts: " No way. He only has two pitches. Can't get through the order a third time Belongs in the bullpen. " Cora: " Houck will be our number 3 starter. " Experts: " Crickets."

 

They are also stretching out Whitlock. I think Houck is starting for now just because he has the history in the rotation. To me, Whitlock has the higher starter ceiling and Houck would make a great closer.

[moonslav59]

They are also stretching out Whitlock. I think Houck is starting for now just because he has the history in the rotation. To me, Whitlock has the higher starter ceiling and Houck would make a great closer.

 

All last year, they said they were stretching our Whitlock.

 

He looks like Gumby, now.

 

 

 

[Bellhorn04]

dgalehouse: " Houck should be in the rotation." Experts: " No way. He only has two pitches. Can't get through the order a third time Belongs in the bullpen. " Cora: " Houck will be our number 3 starter. " Experts: " Crickets."

 

Other expert 1: "With Sale out, there wasn't much choice."

Other expert 2: "Right, and Houck will still be getting yanked after the second time through the order."

[Bellhorn04]

All last year, they said they were stretching our Whitlock.

 

He looks like Gumby, now.

 

 

 

 

All last year they said that?

[mvp 78]

Other expert 1: "With Sale out, there wasn't much choice."

Other expert 2: "Right, and Houck will still be getting yanked after the second time through the order."

 

Expert 3 insists that he's a sexpert, but if there's a degree on his wall, I haven't seen it.

[mvp 78]

All last year they said that?

 

That was right when they inserted him as the closer to help minimize his innings coming off TJS.

[dgalehouse]

Other expert 1: "With Sale out, there wasn't much choice."

Other expert 2: "Right, and Houck will still be getting yanked after the second time through the order."

 

dgalehouse: " Story will move to second base if he signs with Boston. Bogaerts is the shortstop." Experts: " No way . Story is the superior shortstop. Bogaerts moves to second." Cora: " Bogaerts is the shortstop. Story will play second." Experts:" Good team harmony."

[moonslav59]

dgalehouse: " Story will move to second base if he signs with Boston. Bogaerts is the shortstop." Experts: " No way . Story is the superior shortstop. Bogaerts moves to second." Cora: " Bogaerts is the shortstop. Story will play second." Experts:" Good team harmony."

 

You sure "hear" things funny.

[cp176]

They are also stretching out Whitlock. I think Houck is starting for now just because he has the history in the rotation. To me, Whitlock has the higher starter ceiling and Houck would make a great closer.

 

My opinion - both should get the opportunity to start.

[cp176]

dgalehouse: " Story will move to second base if he signs with Boston. Bogaerts is the shortstop." Experts: " No way . Story is the superior shortstop. Bogaerts moves to second." Cora: " Bogaerts is the shortstop. Story will play second." Experts:" Good team harmony."

 

Is there a metric that measures that good for the team and good team harmony stuff?

[mvp 78]

My opinion - both should get the opportunity to start.

 

If Houck can hold up his part at the start of the season, I'd keep him there. Maybe he figures it out?

 

Would be great for the Sox if they had two young starters like that.

[Nick]

They are also stretching out Whitlock. I think Houck is starting for now just because he has the history in the rotation. To me, Whitlock has the higher starter ceiling and Houck would make a great closer.

 

I agree with you on both counts.

[moonslav59]

My opinion - both should get the opportunity to start.

 

Houck has positive experiences starting in the bigs.

 

Whitlock has the three pitches and seems to have all the tools and make-up to be a good starter.

 

Maybe Wacha and or Hill end up in the pen.

 

Maybe Paxton...

[moonslav59]

If Houck can hold up his part at the start of the season, I'd keep him there. Maybe he figures it out?

 

Would be great for the Sox if they had two young starters like that.

 

It's been a long time for one: two would be like winning the lottery!

[moonslav59]

BTV has Story at a -7 value. That's actually pretty good for a newly signed big FA.

 

While BTV has some holes in their system, they have been pretty accurate on actual trades made and balanced values.

 

It seems strange they have Houck at 48.8 and Whitlock at 16.6. Basically, it would take trading 3 Whitlocks to get 1 Houck.

 

Our BTV values for pitchers:

 

48.8 Houck

16.6 Whitlock

11.9 Sale

11.7 Eovaldi

10.3 Bello

8.8 Pivetta

6.6 Gonzalez

5.0 Taylor

4.6 Winckowski

4.4 Walter

3.8 Mata

3.5 Groome

3.4 Crawford

2.9 Seabold

1.7 Paxton

1.5 Liu

1.1 Ward

1.0 Song

2.2 Murphy

 

 

 

[dgalehouse]

Is there a metric that measures that good for the team and good team harmony stuff?

 

fxhar+

[moonslav59]

fxhar+

 

I prefer fxhar-

[mvp 78]

2022 = The Big Showdown Between Desperate Dave and Patient Chaim!

 

https://defector.com/phillies-defense-already-in-midseason-form/

[notin]

My opinion - both should get the opportunity to start.

 

I actually like both in the bullpen, but I certainly understand the situation…

[notin]

Is there a metric that measures that good for the team and good team harmony stuff?

 

Wins

[harmony]

BTV has Story at a -7 value. That's actually pretty good for a newly signed big FA.

Good observation.

 

Today's interesting discussion of the winner's curse:

 

https://www.lookoutlanding.com/2022/3/21/22988027/seattle-mariners-jerry-dipoto-and-the-winners-curse-free-agency-robbie-ray-trevor-story