A Realistic View at 2022: Part I

[Old Red]

He does. He's the Doubting Thomas of Talksox.

 

If you mean the realistic one who doesn’t wear Red colored glasses all the time, and doesn’t agree with all Cora’s, and Bloom’s moves, and says something about them them I’ll wear that hat.

[Nick]

I don't care what anyone says but the Sox just gave a middle finger to paying Xander $30M that he thinks he deserves.

 

Trevor is better shortstop. Let's see if he can match Xander's numbers at the plate.

 

If Trevor has a good year, no way the Sox gives Xander $30M.

 

Bloom can stomach $23M but not $30M.

 

But I'm happy to have both for 2022.

[Old Red]

I don't care what anyone says but the Sox just gave a middle finger to paying Xander $30M that he thinks he deserves.

 

Trevor is better shortstop. Let's see if he can match Xander's numbers at the plate.

 

If Trevor has a good year, no way the Sox gives Xander $30M.

 

Bloom can stomach $23M but not $30M.

 

But I'm happy to have both for 2022.

 

Who said Bogey was asking for $30M?

[moonslav59]

Who said Bogey was asking for $30M?

 

You don't think he will?

 

(Also, doesn't mean he'll get it.)

[Old Red]

You don't think he will?

 

(Also, doesn't mean he'll get it.)

 

I not to sure he will, and definitely not from Boston.

[moonslav59]

The Lux Tax Numbers:

 

25.6 Sale

23.3 Story

22.0 JD

20.0 Bogey

17.0 Eovaldi

16.0 Price

12.0 JB

~10.3 Devers

10.0 Paxton

9.38 Barnes

7.00 Kike, Wacha, Vaz

5.00 Hill

4.00 Diekman

~3.8 Pivetta

~3.5 Verdugo

3.00 Strahm

2.25 Plawecki

1.50 Sawamura

1.40 Brasier

~1.25 Arroyo

~1.00 Taylor

add the 0-3 year players, the bonus pool and 40 man roster players in the minors, plus the player benefits $16M and our grand total is about:

 

$236.6M (almost $7M over the lux tax line)

[moonslav59]

Do we put Sale on the 60 day IL to make room for Story or DFA someone in hopes Sale can return before 60 days?

[moonslav59]

Adding Story sure improves the line-up...

 

1. Kike CF

2. Devers 3B

3. Bogey SS

4. JD DH

5. Story 2B

6. Verdugo LF/Dalbec 1B

7. Dalbec 1B/Verdugo LF

8. Vaz C

9. JBJ RF

 

Bench: Plawecki, Arroyo, Duran and Shaw/Arauz/Downs/Casas

 

[Old Red]

Adding Story sure improves the line-up...

 

1. Kike CF

2. Devers 3B

3. Bogey SS

4. JD DH

5. Story 2B

6. Verdugo LF/Dalbec 1B

7. Dalbec 1B/Verdugo LF

8. Vaz C

9. JBJ RF

 

Bench: Plawecki, Arroyo, Duran and Shaw/Arauz/Downs/Casas

 

 

Story 5th? How about 2nd, and move everyone down 1 notch?

[Nick]

In my fantasy world, I have Dalbec playing right field like Dwight Evans so Casas can take over 1B...

 

You have to admit, we just got little more athletic and have more ability to score runs.....

 

Hey our tax payroll is above the $230M line....can't call us cheap.

[moonslav59]

Story 5th? How about 2nd, and move everyone down 1 notch?

 

Could be.

 

I really like the lefty Devers 2nd, and the trend seems to be your best hitter bats 2nd.

[moonslav59]

In my fantasy world, I have Dalbec playing right field like Dwight Evans so Casas can take over 1B...

 

You have to admit, we just got little more athletic and have more ability to score runs.....

 

Hey our tax payroll is above the $230M line....can't call us cheap.

 

RF is Fenway is way to scary for Dalbec.

[Old Red]

Could be.

 

I really like the lefty Devers 2nd, and the trend seems to be your best hitter bats 2nd.

 

Ok. Story to leadoff then.

[notin]

Who said Bogey was asking for $30M?

 

Wild guess here… Scott Boras?

[moonslav59]

Ok. Story to leadoff then.

 

That sounds even better.

 

1.Story

2. Devers

3. Bogey

4. JD

5. Kike

6. Verdugo

7. Dalbec

8. Vaz

9. JBJ

 

According to modern theory, the 3 slot should not be one of your best 3-4 hitters. The 2 and 5 and 1 slots are most critical. The "theory" might go with...

 

1. Story

2. Devers

3. Kike

4. JD

5. Bogey

[Hugh2]

RF is Fenway is way to scary for Dalbec.

 

Dalbec actually has the arm and is quick for a 1B, came up at 3rd. I'd be interested to see how he looks out there this spring. If Dalbec continues to hit and Casas forces his way up it would be the best move to make mid season.....Assuming we don't see a resurgence of JBJ's bat.

[notin]

Dalbec actually has the arm and is quick for a 1B, came up at 3rd. I'd be interested to see how he looks out there this spring. If Dalbec continues to hit and Casas forces his way up it would be the best move to make mid season.....Assuming we don't see a resurgence of JBJ's bat.

 

 

I love the idea of moving Dalbec to the OF if Casas works out, but I don’t think the transition will be so expedient…

[moonslav59]

Dalbec actually has the arm and is quick for a 1B, came up at 3rd. I'd be interested to see how he looks out there this spring. If Dalbec continues to hit and Casas forces his way up it would be the best move to make mid season.....Assuming we don't see a resurgence of JBJ's bat.

 

I'm not saying it can't work, but it still looks scary, to me.

 

Let's see how he handles fly balls in LF, first.

[moonslav59]

I love the idea of moving Dalbec to the OF if Casas works out, but I don’t think the transition will be so expedient…

 

He had a hard time adjusting to 1B from 3B.

[notin]

He had a hard time adjusting to 1B from 3B.

 

Yeah that part of the equation has been a sticking point.

 

He is a surprisingly fast runner for his size. I think in time, he could be an excellent defender in RF. The problem, I have no idea how long “in time” is, but I do know how badly things can go between now and then…

[Larry Cook]

Dalbec actually has the arm and is quick for a 1B, came up at 3rd. I'd be interested to see how he looks out there this spring. If Dalbec continues to hit and Casas forces his way up it would be the best move to make mid season.....Assuming we don't see a resurgence of JBJ's bat.

 

Depending on the depth of regression from Martinez, we could see cassas sooner rather than later.

[Hugh2]

I'm not saying it can't work, but it still looks scary, to me.

 

Let's see how he handles fly balls in LF, first.

 

I mean…I’m not exactly going to bet on him becoming a good OFer either but I’am optimistic and curious.

[Bellhorn04]

Depending on the depth of regression from Martinez, we could see cassas sooner rather than later.

 

JD managed an .867 OPS last year, and a 1.135 OPS in the postseason.

[Nick]

MLB has its top 100 prospects list out.

 

There are 3 18-year olds on the list, highest ranked #25.

There are 6 19-year olds on the list, Sox's Mayer is top rated at #14, Nick Yorke is 4th highest rated 19 year old at #55

There are 9 24-year olds on the list

There are 2 25 year olds on the list, Duran coming in at #85

Casas, a 22 year old is ranked #16.

 

Mayer is highest ranked under 20-group. Not shabby.

[moonslav59]

I mean…I’m not exactly going to bet on him becoming a good OFer either but I’am optimistic and curious.

 

I'd think LF would have to be the first stepping stone.

[moonslav59]

MLB has its top 100 prospects list out.

 

There are 3 18-year olds on the list, highest ranked #25.

There are 6 19-year olds on the list, Sox's Mayer is top rated at #14, Nick Yorke is 4th highest rated 19 year old at #55

There are 9 24-year olds on the list

There are 2 25 year olds on the list, Duran coming in at #85

Casas, a 22 year old is ranked #16.

 

Mayer is highest ranked under 20-group. Not shabby.

 

Interesting and encouraging insights.

[moonslav59]

Some Sox Lefty-Righty Splits

 

OPS

Career/2021

 

vs RHPs

.900 Devers .978

.856 JD M .889

.847 Verdugo .894

.809 Story .735

.799 Bogey .887

.763 Dalbec .730

.717 JBJ .490

.690 Kike .744

.683 Vaz .710

.680 Arroyo .685

.664 Plawecki .690

 

vs LHPs

1.002 Story .974

.953 JD M .826

.902 Dalbec .877

.851 Bogey .818

.826 Kike .850

.734 Devers .751

.714 Vaz .555

.701 Arroyo .885

.674 Verdugo .554

.674 JBJ .528

.673 Plawecki .794

[Nick]

I'm guessing there's no way Cora will move Kike off the leadoff spot, unless he becomes JBJ III.

 

1. Kike

2. Story

3. Devers

4. Xander

5. JD

6. Verdugo

7. Dalbec

8. Vaz

9. JBJ

[Larry Cook]

I'm guessing there's no way Cora will move Kike off the leadoff spot, unless he becomes JBJ III.

 

1. Kike

2. Story

3. Devers

4. Xander

5. JD

6. Verdugo

7. Dalbec

8. Vaz

9. JBJ

 

I like story in the number 2 hole better than devers.

[Nick]

Strictly based on actual payroll and not the luxury tax payroll, Sox should be the #5 spender in 2022.

 

$200M+ club

 

1 Dodgers

2 Mets

3 Yankees

4 Phillies

5 Red Sox

6 San Diego

 

Bloom says don't call me cheap, just frugal.

Edited March 21, 2022 by Nick