A Realistic View at 2022: Part I

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

College football games take four hours to play. All for about thirteen or fourteen minutes of actual play. So much chatter , commercials , time outs , penalties , reviews , replays and other various dead time. Yet the sport is very popular. Makes you wonder if pace of play is really MLB 's biggest issue. Or is it something else? Or a combination of things?

 

You had me until I got to the anagram MLB. Then I automatically stood up from my laptop, stretched my legs, carefully wiped each lens of my glasses on my shirt, rubbed my eyes, reset my readers, then got back in the chair.

[mvp 78]

You had me until I got to the anagram MLB. Then I automatically stood up from my laptop, stretched my legs, carefully wiped each lens of my glasses on my shirt, rubbed my eyes, reset my readers, then got back in the chair.

 

That's not what an anagram is??????????

[Bellhorn04]

College football games take four hours to play. All for about thirteen or fourteen minutes of actual play. So much chatter , commercials , time outs , penalties , reviews , replays and other various dead time. Yet the sport is very popular. Makes you wonder if pace of play is really MLB 's biggest issue. Or is it something else? Or a combination of things?

 

Good point, Denny. If pace and play and lack of action were the big issues, football would be in at least as much trouble as baseball.

[notin]

Good point, Denny. If pace and play and lack of action were the big issues, football would be in at least as much trouble as baseball.

 

And we’d all be bigger fans of horse racing…

[notin]

MLB’s biggest problem IMO is their antediluvian blackout policy…

[mvp 78]

And we’d all be bigger fans of horse racing…

 

Uh, no. Watch the Kentucky Derby on NBC and report back how much actual air time is spent during the race vs before and after.

[notin]

Uh, no. Watch the Kentucky Derby on NBC and report back how much actual air time is spent during the race vs before and after.

 

 

But the race itself is very fast paced…

[harmony]

Perhaps only the league- and park-adjusted wRC+.

 

Baseball executives certainly don't dismiss traditional minor league stats altogether.

Apparently minor league wRC+ is league-adjusted but not park-adjusted.

 

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/ben-clemens-fangraphs-chat-1-10-22/

 

Scroll down.

 

Without a park adjustment, did Jarren Duran get a wRC+ boost playing his home games at Worcester's Polar Park?

[S5Dewey]

College football games take four hours to play. All for about thirteen or fourteen minutes of actual play. So much chatter , commercials , time outs , penalties , reviews , replays and other various dead time. Yet the sport is very popular. Makes you wonder if pace of play is really MLB 's biggest issue. Or is it something else? Or a combination of things?

 

Televised football is a series of commercials strung together by a football game.

[moonslav59]

Televised football is a series of commercials strung together by a football game.

 

With the actual action being a small percentage of the time players are on the field.

[sk7326]

College football games take four hours to play. All for about thirteen or fourteen minutes of actual play. So much chatter , commercials , time outs , penalties , reviews , replays and other various dead time. Yet the sport is very popular. Makes you wonder if pace of play is really MLB 's biggest issue. Or is it something else? Or a combination of things?

 

It's popular regionally - sadly in its way like baseball in that way.

 

Baseball's biggest problems on the field I think is:

 

1. Not blaming analytics PER SE, but the results (mathematically correct) leading to a game where fewer balls are put in play than ever before.

2. Pace of play-ish, but the real answer is to shorten ad breaks and that's not happening.

 

Otherwise, the biggest problem is that the game is presently being run and marketed by people who don't like baseball and baseball players.

[mvp 78]

It's popular regionally - sadly in its way like baseball in that way.

 

Baseball's biggest problems on the field I think is:

 

1. Not blaming analytics PER SE, but the results (mathematically correct) leading to a game where fewer balls are put in play than ever before.

2. Pace of play-ish, but the real answer is to shorten ad breaks and that's not happening.

 

Otherwise, the biggest problem is that the game is presently being run and marketed by people who don't like baseball and baseball players.

 

If they liked the game, you'd see tons of commercials with Tatis, Acuna, Trout, Ohtani, etc.

[sk7326]

If they liked the game, you'd see tons of commercials with Tatis, Acuna, Trout, Ohtani, etc.

 

You'd see national broadcasts without announcers who keep complaining that the game has not been the same since the Reserve Clause was outlawed.

 

Let's put it this way - FOX put a ton of energy and ad hype into the Fields of Corn game. And people watched! And it was cool for what it was!

 

But they don't put that effort into celebrating today's game and players - not at all.

[mvp 78]

You'd see national broadcasts without announcers who keep complaining that the game has not been the same since the Reserve Clause was outlawed.

 

Let's put it this way - FOX put a ton of energy and ad hype into the Fields of Corn game. And people watched! And it was cool for what it was!

 

But they don't put that effort into celebrating today's game and players - not at all.

 

^^^

[harmony]

Televised football is a series of commercials strung together by a football game.

I can remember when only marquee college football games were televised. The first football game I had attended in years was a mundane matchup last October. The frequent commmercial breaks and resulting dead time made the game almost unbearably boring.

[S5Dewey]

I can remember when only marquee college football games were televised. The first football game I had attended in years was a mundane matchup last October. The frequent commercial breaks and resulting dead time made the game almost unbearably boring.

 

IMO one of the biggest problems with college football (and basketball) is that they're geared to being televised. As a fan I find it frustrating to see the linemen lined up and ready for the play while everyone has to wait for that guy in the orange jacket to get off the field. The fans at home don't realize how much time is elapsing because they're being "entertained" by the commercials while fans in the stands are being bored waiting for the play to happen.

 

And "Media timeouts" in college basketball? Really? For all the issues we discuss here about how rule changes are bastardizing the game nothing has basterdized a game any more than prescribed timeouts during a basketball game.

 

But... Money Talks! Ugh.

[mvp 78]

IMO one of the biggest problems with college football (and basketball) is that they're geared to being televised. As a fan I find it frustrating to see the linemen lined up and ready for the play while everyone has to wait for that guy in the orange jacket to get off the field. The fans at home don't realize how much time is elapsing because they're being "entertained" by the commercials while fans in the stands are being bored waiting for the play to happen.

 

And "Media timeouts" in college basketball? Really? For all the issues we discuss here about how rule changes are bastardizing the game nothing has basterdized a game any more than prescribed timeouts during a basketball game.

 

But... Money Talks! Ugh.

 

The final 2 minutes of any basketball game is a miserable tv watching experience.

Edited January 12, 2022 by mvp 78

[moonslav59]

Basketball is the most active, wire-to-wire, action sports of the big 3. (Hockey is, too, but are not top 3.)

 

Somehow, they have managed to ruin the sport, from a viewer's standpoint.

 

College basketball still interests me, but the NBA is all but dead, to me.

 

Despite my team winning it all, last year, I barely watched any NBA.

[harmony]

Steamer is offered because it is one of the more recognized publically available projection services. Of the top projection services, only Steamer to date has offered WAR projections for Oakland players.

 

Other projections are welcome.

ZiPS has issued its 2022 WAR projections for the Oakland Athletics, including a projected 0.2 WAR for Lou Trivino, indeed an improvement over Steamer's 2022 projection of 0.0 WAR for Trivino:

 

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/2022-zips-projections-oakland-athletics/

[moonslav59]

Justin Mason's 2022 SP Rankings (Fantasy):

13. Sale

40. Eovaldi

86. Houck

131. Wacha

169. Pivetta

[moonslav59]

ZiPS has issued its 2022 WAR projections for the Oakland Athletics, including a projected 0.2 WAR for Lou Trivino, indeed an improvement over Steamer's 2022 projection of 0.0 WAR for Trivino:

 

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/2022-zips-projections-oakland-athletics/

 

So, does this mean the M's now want him?

[moonslav59]

Best Red Sox Non-Pitching fWAR Seasons Since 2000:

 

10.4 Betts '18

9.5 Ellsbury '11

8.3 Betts '16

7.9 Pedey '11

7.6 Nomar '00

6.8 Bogey '19

6.6 Betts '19

6.4 Beltre '10

6.4 Pedey '08

6.3 Papi '07

6.2 Youk '08

6.2 AGon '11

5.9 Youk '09, Devers '19, JD '18

5.8 Manny '03, Nomar '03

5.3 Betts '17, Manny '02, Papi '06, papi '05, JBJ '16

5.2 Bogey '21, Manny '01

5.0 Nixon '03

4.9 Pedey '16, Bogey '18, JD Drew '09, Bogey '16

4.8 Nomat '02, Betts '15

4.7 C Everett '00, Mueller '03, Victorino '13, Pedey '09, Devers '21, Bogey '15

4.5 Lowell '07, Papi '16

4.4 Crisp, Beni, Damon

4.3 Damon, Pedey

4.2 Youk, Papi, Ellsbury

4.1 Youk, JD Drew, VTek

3.9 Kike '21

 

[moonslav59]

Top fWAR by any Sox Player since 2000:

 

5.0+ (Red= Pitchers)

 

10.4 Betts '18

9.5 Ellsbury '11

9.4 Pedro '00

8.3 Betts '16

7.9 Pedey '11

7.6 Sale '17

7.6 Nomar '00

7.4 Pedro '03

7.4 Pedro '02

6.8 Bogey '19

6.6 Betts '19

6.5 Schill '04

6.4 Beltre '10

6.4 Pedey '08

6.3 Papi '07

6.2 Sale '18

6.2 Youk '08

6.2 AGon '11

5.9 Youk '09, Devers '19, JD '18

5.8 Manny '03, Nomar '03

5.7 Beckett '07

5.6 Eovaldi '21

5.5 Pedro '01

5.4 Lester '09

5.3 Betts '17, Manny '02, Papi '06, Papi '05, JBJ '16

5.2 Bogey '21, Manny '01

5.1 Porcello '16

5.0 Nixon '03

[harmony]

So, does this mean the M's now want him?

It's confirmation that the Seattle Mariners don't need Lou Trivino.

 

Teams need to identify under-the-radar relievers and then utilize advanced metrics to deploy those relievers properly.

 

Last season the Mariners got a combined 6.2 bWAR (3.8 fWAR) from three relievers -- Casey Sadler, Drew Steckenrider and Paul Sewald -- who were acquired via a waiver claim in September 2020 and as two non-roster invitees in the 2020-21 offseason.

 

In a recent interview with MLB Trade Rumors, Sewald discussed the defined roles of the relievers:

 

https://www.jotcast.com/chat/live-chat-with-mariners-reliever-paul-sewald-12167.html

 

Roles were not defined by inning but by the 1) precise matchups and 2) leverage situation.

 

Seattle got the most from three relievers rescued from the scrap heap by using each reliever only in situations in which each reliever was most likely to succeed. Analytics had more to do with the transformation than any adjustment in mechanics.

 

The succcess led to a 33-19 record in one-run games en route to 90 wins despite a negative 51 run differential. Most projections point to significant regression in 2022 although the Seattle bullpen is expected to add Ken Giles and Andres Munoz. The Mariners would likely pass on Lou Trivino.

[moonslav59]

if the Ms GM feels he does not need any relief additions, enjoy another season with no playoffs.

[harmony]

if the Ms GM feels he does not need any relief additions, enjoy another season with no playoffs.

The additions are Ken Giles, with projected 2022 WAR of 0.4 at ZiPS and 0.3 at Steamer, and Andres Munoz, with projected 2022 WAR of 0.1 at ZiPS and 0.5 at Steamer.

 

Lou Trivino, with projected 2022 WAR of 0.2 at ZiPS and 0.0 at Steamer, won't cut it with his projected 2022 salary of $2.9 million.

 

The Seattle Mariners may well miss the postseason again ... or not.

[moonslav59]

The additions are Ken Giles, with projected 2022 WAR of 0.4 at ZiPS and 0.3 at Steamer, and Andres Munoz, with projected 2022 WAR of 0.1 at ZiPS and 0.5 at Steamer.

 

Lou Trivino, with projected 2022 WAR of 0.2 at ZiPS and 0.0 at Steamer, won't cut it with his projected 2022 salary of $2.9 million.

 

The Seattle Mariners may well miss the postseason again ... or not.

 

You should know counting on all your RPers to not have bad years is very wishful thinking. Most teams use over 14 every year.

 

If you guys are in the race, you will likely trade for a RPer at the deadline…

 

Or not (and lose again.)

[harmony]

You should know counting on all your RPers to not have bad years is very wishful thinking. Most teams use over 14 every year.

 

If you guys are in the race, you will likely trade for a RPer at the deadline…

 

Or not (and lose again.)

Seattle was in third place seven games out of first place on July 27 when the Mariners traded well-regarded reliever Kendall Graveman (and Rafael Montero) to Houston for Abraham Toro and reliever Joe Smith (who outperformed Graveman the remainder of the season). Later that week the M's acquired Diego Castillo for JT Chargois, who outperformed Castillo the remainder of the season.

 

The Mariners finished the season in second place five games behind the American League champion Houston Astros.

 

If Seattle needs to supplement the bullpen the Mariners can do so without paying Lou Trivino $2.9 million for a projected WAR of 0.0 or 0.2.

 

The Seattle Mariners may never advance to the postseason.

 

Until they do.

[oldtimer]

Uh, no. Watch the Kentucky Derby on NBC and report back how much actual air time is spent during the race vs before and after.

 

NBC doesn't do horse racing well. They only want to do the color and lose the essence of what horse racing fans like about the sport.

[Bellhorn04]

Seattle was in third place seven games out of first place on July 27 when the Mariners traded well-regarded reliever Kendall Graveman (and Rafael Montero) to Houston for Abraham Toro and reliever Joe Smith (who outperformed Graveman the remainder of the season). Later that week the M's acquired Diego Castillo for JT Chargois, who outperformed Castillo the remainder of the season.

 

The Mariners finished the season in second place five games behind the American League champion Houston Astros.

 

If Seattle needs to supplement the bullpen the Mariners can do so without paying Lou Trivino $2.9 million for a projected WAR of 0.0 or 0.2.

 

The Seattle Mariners may never advance to the postseason.

 

Until they do.

 

The law of averages says the M's will make the playoffs some year. They seem to be really trying now, at least.