A Realistic View at 2022: Part I

[Bellhorn04]

I like Fangraphs website more, but I think there's value in using both bWAR and fWAR.

 

They're very different measurements for pitchers, though. And E-Rod's is about 2 wins different. 1.9 is fairly easy to replace, 3.8 is not. So it does create a bit of confusion using them both for pitchers, IMHO.

[mvp 78]

They're very different measurements for pitchers, though. And E-Rod's is about 2 wins different. 1.9 is fairly easy to replace, 3.8 is not. So it does create a bit of confusion using them both for pitchers, IMHO.

 

Which is a problem with WAR for sure.

[moonslav59]

You also do have an affinity for making platoons out of players across two or more positions

 

Sometimes I mention it as an option but not always one I want.

 

I do like Arroyo when he’s healthy, and his splits are almost equal v L and R.

 

I do pay attention to splits more than most.

[mvp 78]

I do pay attention to splits more than most.

 

It's almost unhealthy.

[moonslav59]

They're very different measurements for pitchers, though. And E-Rod's is about 2 wins different. 1.9 is fairly easy to replace, 3.8 is not. So it does create a bit of confusion using them both for pitchers, IMHO.

 

ERods bWAR and fWAR have been very far apart.

 

FWAR has 2021 as ERid’s best season while bWAR has 2029 more than 3 x better than 2021!

[moonslav59]

It's almost unhealthy.

 

I eat granola while viewing splits.

[moonslav59]

I’d love to see us add a2Bman, Montas and Trivino, but maybe we add Suzuki, Bassit and Trivino, and Kike plays 2B almost FT.

[harmony]

Props to the Red Sox farm system:

 

Most improved farm systems 2021

WWW.MLB.COM

---

Twice a year, MLB Pipeline ranks all 30 farm systems in baseball. It was top 10 for a number of years, expanded to 15 in 2019 and then stretched to incorporate every organization in 2020. The first one comes before the season starts and it’s followed up by a re-rank

[moonslav59]

Happy New Year!

[Kimmi]

Props to the Red Sox farm system:

 

Most improved farm systems 2021

WWW.MLB.COM

---

Twice a year, MLB Pipeline ranks all 30 farm systems in baseball. It was top 10 for a number of years, expanded to 15 in 2019 and then stretched to incorporate every organization in 2020. The first one comes before the season starts and it’s followed up by a re-rank

 

Reason #1 why I am a huge Bloom fan.

[Kimmi]

Happy New Year!

 

Happy New Year Moon and everyone!

 

Wishing everyone a great 2022!

[moonslav59]

Reason #1 why I am a huge Bloom fan.

 

Never did I expect it to happen so quickly, especially with the way the system is set up to make it harder on big spending and winning teams.

 

Sucking in 2020 brought us Mayer and others, so that helped, a lot.

 

We also have to give some props to DD for drafting well with lower picks.

[notin]

Never did I expect it to happen so quickly, especially with the way the system is set up to make it harder on big spending and winning teams.

 

Sucking in 2020 brought us Mayer and others, so that helped, a lot.

 

We also have to give some props to DD for drafting well with lower picks.

 

 

True, DD did bring on board Houck, Casas and Duran…

[Bellhorn04]

True, DD did bring on board Houck, Casas and Duran…

 

Dalbec too, right?

[moonslav59]

Dalbec too, right?

 

Yes.

 

2016

#12 Groome

#51 Chatham (traded for V Santos- still has some promise)

#88 S Anderson (traded with G Santos for E Nunez)

#118 Dalbec

#148 Shawaryn

#178 S Nogosek (traded with G Bautist & J Callahan for Addison Reed)

 

2017

#24 Houck

#491 K Crawford

 

2018

#26 Casas

#100 Feltman

#130 K Cottam

#160 T Ward

#220 Duran

 

2019 (No 1st rounder)

#69 M Lugo

#137 N Song

 

IFA

2015-16

B Mata

2016 (restricted)

H Velazquez

2017

D Flores (RIP)

B Bello

G Jimenez

2018

W Gonzalez

B Bonaci

C Rafaela

E Paulino

Edited January 1, 2022 by moonslav59

[moonslav59]

Is this realistic?

 

Sign Suzuki and Iggy

Trade Casas, Duran, Downs and Wong for Montas (2 yrs), Trivino (3 yrs) and Soderstrom ( a highly rated catching prospect worth near the value of Casas on BTV. The A's can then trade Olsen for pitching and use Casas at 1B.)

 

That gives us...

 

1. Kike 2B/CF

2. Devers 3B

3. Bogey SS

4. JD DH

5. Verdugo LF/Suzuki RF

6. Suzuki RF/ Verdugo LF

7. Dalbec 1B

8. JBJ CF/ Arroyo 2B

9. Vaz

Bench: Arroyo/JBJ, Iggy, Plawecki, Arauz/Cordero/Refsnyder

 

SP: Eovaldi, Montas, Sale, Pivetta, Wacha (Paxton)

RP: Houck, Whitlock, Barnes, Hill, Brasier, Taylor, DHern, Sawamura/Davis/Seabold/Winckowski/Crawford/Valdez/Bazardo/Feltman

Edited January 1, 2022 by moonslav59

[notin]

Is this realistic?

 

Sign Suzuki and Iggy

Trade Casas, Duran, Downs and Wong for Montas (2 yrs), Trivino (3 yrs) and Soderstrom ( a highly rated catching prospect worth near the value of Casas on BTV. The A's can then trade Olsen for pitching and use Casas at 1B.)

 

That gives us...

 

1. Kike 2B/CF

2. Devers 3B

3. Bogey SS

4. JD DH

5. Verdugo LF/Suzuki RF

6. Suzuki RF/ Verdugo LF

7. Dalbec 1B

8. JBJ CF/ Arroyo 2B

9. Vaz

Bench: Arroyo/JBJ, Iggy, Plawecki, Arauz/Cordero/Refsnyder

 

SP: Eovaldi, Montas, Sale, Pivetta, Wacha (Paxton)

RP: Houck, Whitlock, Barnes, Hill, Brasier, Taylor, DHern, Sawamura/Davis/Seabold/Winckowski/Crawford/Valdez/Bazardo/Feltman

 

Sean Murphy or not, I don’t think Oakland is going to deal Sodetstrom. More likely they deal Murphy when he’s arm eligible and use Sodetstrom then…

[moonslav59]

Sean Murphy or not, I don’t think Oakland is going to deal Sodetstrom. More likely they deal Murphy when he’s arm eligible and use Sodetstrom then…

 

Murphy does have 4 years left, and maybe just the last 2 arbs will be too costly for the A;s, but your point is a good one.

 

They do gain Casas which is a wash on pre-arb prospects, and catching prospects fail more often than 1B ones, IMO.

 

Maybe something like this, then...

 

Dalbec, Duran, Downs for Montas & Trivino.

 

(Now, we'd need a 1B placeholder for Casas.)

Edited January 1, 2022 by moonslav59

[Old Red]

Murphy does have 4 years left, and maybe just the last 2 arbs will be too costly for the A;s, but your point is a good one.

 

They do gain Casas which is a wash on pre-arb prospects, and catching prospects fail more often than 1B ones, IMO.

 

Maybe something like this, then...

 

Dalbec, Duran, Downs for Montas & Trivino.

 

(Now, we'd need a 1B placeholder for Casas.)

 

Do you think Downs, and Duran are very highly rated, and in demand at this point?

[moonslav59]

Yes.

 

2016

#12 Groome

#51 Chatham (traded for V Santos- still has some promise)

#88 S Anderson (traded with G Santos for E Nunez)

#118 Dalbec

#148 Shawaryn

#178 S Nogosek (traded with G Bautist & J Callahan for Addison Reed)

 

2017

#24 Houck

#491 K Crawford

 

2018

#26 Casas

#100 Feltman

#130 K Cottam

#160 T Ward

#220 Duran

 

2019 (No 1st rounder)

#69 M Lugo

#137 N Song

 

IFA

2015-16

B Mata

2016 (restricted)

H Velazquez

2017

D Flores (RIP)

B Bello

G Jimenez

2018

W Gonzalez

B Bonaci

C Rafaela

E Paulino

 

Sox prospects by GM (soxprospects.com)

 

1. DD Casas

2. Bloom Mayer

3. Bloom Yorke

4. DD Duran

5. Bloom Downs (trade)

6. DD Bello

7. Bloom Jordan

8. DD Groome

9. DD Jimenez

10. DD Mata

11. Bloom Seabols (trade)

12. DD W Gonzalez

13. Bloom Winckowski (trade)

14. DD Murphy

15. Bloom Bleis

16. Bloom Wong (trade)

17. DD B Walter

18. Bloom Binelas (trade)

19. DD Song

20. DD Ward

21. Bloom McDonough

22. DD Bonaci

23. Bloom Hernandez (trade)

24. DD Rafaela

25. DD Paulino

26. Bloom Hamilton (trade)

 

It's interesting that 7 out of the 12 Bloom prospects in the top 26 were acquired by trade.

 

14 of the top 25 are DD additions. That's not really as surprising as it appears, since his prospects have had a chance to prove themselves and rise up. Some of Blooms more recent picks may rise sharply in the next 1-3 years.

Edited January 1, 2022 by moonslav59

[moonslav59]

Do you think Downs, and Duran are very highly rated, and in demand at this point?

 

I don't think Duran's stock dropped that much over so few ML PAs, but perhaps 20.1 is too high a score.

 

Downs did well in winter ball and is close to his 11.8 score, IMO.

 

The second trade I suggested had us giving up 45.6 and the A's only 40.6, so I factored in an over-evaluation of about $5M.

 

I think the A's would do this deal.

 

On BTV, I suggested this trade a while back and the votes are as follows:

 

3 thought it was a good deal for the Sox- 1 thought it was bad.

 

1 thought it was a good deal for the A's- 9 thought it was bad.

 

Maybe I'm a homer.

[mvp 78]

I don't think Duran's stock dropped that much over so few ML PAs, but perhaps 20.1 is too high a score.

 

Downs did well in winter ball and is close to his 11.8 score, IMO.

 

The second trade I suggested had us giving up 45.6 and the A's only 40.6, so I factored in an over-evaluation of about $5M.

 

I think the A's would do this deal.

 

On BTV, I suggested this trade a while back and the votes are as follows:

 

3 thought it was a good deal for the Sox- 1 thought it was bad.

 

1 thought it was a good deal for the A's- 9 thought it was bad.

 

Maybe I'm a homer.

 

Downs started the fall league off white hot and then just collapsed. He may be a JBJ type hitter without the great defense.

[moonslav59]

BTV also accepted these blockbusters:

 

Casas, Duran & Mata

for

Olsen, Montas, Trivino, Andrus (-4.2)& Piscotty (salary dump)

 

and

 

Casas, Dalbec, Downs & Mata

for

Olsen, Montas & Trivino

 

[moonslav59]

Downs started the fall league off white hot and then just collapsed. He may be a JBJ type hitter without the great defense.

 

True, but in a 72 PA sample size, I'm not so sure. He ended up at .880.

 

How do you think his defense might be at 2B not SS?

[harmony]

Do you think Downs, and Duran are very highly rated, and in demand at this point?

No one wants another Jarren Duran comp with a Seattle player (after suffering the Taylor Trammell comp), but here goes ...

 

Jarred Duran and Seattle catcher Cal Raleigh were drafted out of major college programs in the seventh and third rounds of the 2018 MLB draft. Duran is about four months older than Raleigh.

 

Duran and Raleigh had disappointing debuts last year after tearing up Triple A pitching. Here are their 2021 MLB lines:

 

JD 112 PA, .215/.241/.336/.578, 40 K, 4 BB, OPS+ 51, wRC+ 49

CR 148 PA, .180/.223/.309/.532, 52 K, 7 BB, OPS+ 48, wRC+ 47

 

... and their 2021 lines at Triple A:

 

JD 283 PA, .258/.357/.516/.873, 66 K, 30 BB, wRC+ 132

CR 199 PA, .324/.377/.608/.985, 25 K, 14 BB, wRC+ 136

 

Steamer projects 2022 WAR of 0.8 in 115 games for Duran and 1.5 in 66 games for Raleigh.

 

Baseball Trade Values assigns median surplus values of $20.1 million for Duran and $18.8 million for Raleigh.

 

The development of Duran and Raleigh should be interesting to follow.

Edited January 2, 2022 by harmony

[notin]

No one wants another Jarren Duran comp with a Seattle player (after suffering the Taylor Trammell comp), but here goes ...

 

Jarred Duran and Seattle catcher Cal Raleigh were drafted out of major college programs in the seventh and third rounds of the 2018 MLB draft. Duran is about four months older than Raleigh.

 

Duran and Raleigh had disappointing debuts last year after tearing up Triple A pitching. Here are their 2021 MLB lines:

 

JD 112 PA, .215/.241/.336/.578, 40 K, 4 BB, OPS+ 51, wRC+ 49

CR 148 PA, .180/.223/.309/.532, 52 K, 7 BB, OPS+ 48, wRC+ 47

 

... and their 2021 lines at Triple A:

 

JD 283 PA, .258/.357/.516/.873, 66 K, 30 BB, wRC+ 132

CR 199 PA, .324/.377/.608/,985, 25 K, 14 BB, wRC+ 136

 

Steamer projects 2022 WAR of 0.8 in 115 games for Duran and 1.5 in 66 games for Raleigh.

 

Baseball Trade Values assigns median surplus values of $20.1 million for Duran and $18.8 million for Raleigh.

 

The development of Duran and Raleigh should be interesting to follow.

 

Has comparing the stats of two minor leaguers ever actually worked for anything?

[harmony]

Has comparing the stats of two minor leaguers ever actually worked for anything?

Perhaps only the league- and park-adjusted wRC+.

 

Baseball executives certainly don't dismiss traditional minor league stats altogether.

[moonslav59]

Has comparing the stats of two minor leaguers ever actually worked for anything?

 

I don't get the purpose, either.

[Kimmi]

Never did I expect it to happen so quickly, especially with the way the system is set up to make it harder on big spending and winning teams.

 

Sucking in 2020 brought us Mayer and others, so that helped, a lot.

 

We also have to give some props to DD for drafting well with lower picks.

 

Dombrowski does get some credit for helping the farm system get back on track.

[moonslav59]

Dombrowski does get some credit for helping the farm system get back on track.

 

DD's prospects added are further along in development, but it is noteworthy to point out that 6 of the top 10 and 14 of the top 25 prospects on soxprospects.com are DD prospects. Some have recently graduated, and more will, soon. Some of Blooms will move up the ladder soon, but I think DD deserves a lot of credit for drafting well with mostly lower picks and even a loss of a first rounder and one restricted IFA period.