A Realistic View at 2022: Part I

[Bellhorn04]

No doubt.

 

He may also end up being released like Andriese was, but I think Bloom has higher expectations for Wacha than he did for Andriese. Perhaps much higher.

 

Probably about 3.4 times higher. (7/2.1)

[oldtimer]

For what it's worth, I felt much worse about our rotation in March 2021.

 

Here's my early take...

 

Eovaldi: The guy has become a horse, when his history was almost the opposite until maybe 2020. There is no reason to think he will decline, significantly or get injured. I'd expect close to what we saw in 2021.

 

Sale: I'm optimistic, here. I'm expecting 160-170+ IP, so that alone, could be a big boost, even if he doesn't come to close to the "old Sale." I do think this guys is a fierce competitor, and if that means anything, he could come close to his prior form.

 

Pivetta: I've been a big believer in this guy. He has some nasty stuff. He's had some ups and downs, but he seemed to come into his own, overall. He still has a serious issue with BBs, and his 3.8 BB/9 was higher than his career 3.5 mark. (9.8 BB% vs 9.0% career) Gotta like his ERA+ with the Sox in 165 IP from 2020-2021.

 

Paxton: I'm setting my sights on 2022 for him. Anything we get from him, late in the season, might be icing on the cake (or lipstick on a pig.)

 

Wacha: I'm not impressed, but apparently he showed signs of turning things around, late in the season. I'm thinking things often turn both ways. I'm trying to be hopeful but finding it hard, here.

 

Hill: This guy can pitch. He may pitch until he's 50. With him, it has been and always will be about his health. Here are his IP over the last 5 years:

136 (2017) 125 ERA+

132 (2018) 106

59 (2019) 169

39 (2020) 143

159 (2021) 103

 

Others: Whitlock, Houck, Winckowski, Seabold- lots of promise here.

My take is we shouldn't count on Paxton for anything in 2022 and we will need Wacha to transform himself, which I don't expect. Perhaps Hill can provide some value. I don't see these changes to provide much help for 2022 so wonder what Bloom was thinking. Likewise, I could see the rationale for trading Renfroe high, but taking Bradley back to get the deal made is very questionable. I hope Bloom has other moves in mind and will await his action.

[dgalehouse]

JBJ is a good ballplayer, who knows how to win. He had a woeful year with the Brewers for some reason. I don't know why , but sometimes that happens after changing teams and leagues. I look for a much better performance from him this year. Hill , Paxton and Wacha have all experienced some success in the past. Obviously, the hope is that they can find it again. Time will tell.

[moonslav59]

My take is we shouldn't count on Paxton for anything in 2022 and we will need Wacha to transform himself, which I don't expect. Perhaps Hill can provide some value. I don't see these changes to provide much help for 2022 so wonder what Bloom was thinking. Likewise, I could see the rationale for trading Renfroe high, but taking Bradley back to get the deal made is very questionable. I hope Bloom has other moves in mind and will await his action.

 

Did we expect much from Richards, Perez, Andriese and Sawamura?

 

In fact, we got very little from them and still came very close to glory.

 

I hope this year's crop does better.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

JBJ is a good ballplayer, who knows how to win. He had a woeful year with the Brewers for some reason. I don't know why , but sometimes that happens after changing teams and leagues. I look for a much better performance from him this year. Hill , Paxton and Wacha have all experienced some success in the past. Obviously, the hope is that they can find it again. Time will tell.

 

Recent performance is unfortunately the only thing some fans can focus upon. So to some, Bradley's 2021 means he's washed up forever at age 31. But others who can access bb-ref or fangraphs know that JBJ was also one of the Red Sox' best players in 2020...

 

Jackie didn't forget how to play baseball, and unless he's dealing with an undisclosed injury, I'd still take him defensively in centerfield over Kike Hernandez, who had a great second half in CF in '21 before dropping that fly at the end of the ALCS.

[harmony]

MassLive beat reporter Chris Cotillo examines the Red Sox bullpen:

 

https://www.masslive.com/redsox/2021/12/boston-red-sox-roster-analysis-bullpen-a-big-part-of-chaim-blooms-to-do-list-when-lockout-ends-garrett-whitlock-matt-barnes-look-like-keys-among-internal-options.html

[moonslav59]

Recent performance is unfortunately the only thing some fans can focus upon. So to some, Bradley's 2021 means he's washed up forever at age 31. But others who can access bb-ref or fangraphs know that JBJ was also one of the Red Sox' best players in 2020...

 

Jackie didn't forget how to play baseball, and unless he's dealing with an undisclosed injury, I'd still take him defensively in centerfield over Kike Hernandez, who had a great second half in CF in '21 before dropping that fly at the end of the ALCS.

 

Good points, but many felt his bat was washed up before 2020. It's not just about 2021.

 

I'm hopeful he can give us .650-.725.

[notin]

Good points, but many felt his bat was washed up before 2020. It's not just about 2021.

 

I'm hopeful he can give us .650-.725.

 

JBJ has a career OPS+ of 87. Through the same age, Ozzie Smith had a career OPS+ of 80. It’s not always about the bat…

[moonslav59]

JBJ has a career OPS+ of 87. Through the same age, Ozzie Smith had a career OPS+ of 80. It’s not always about the bat…

 

Really?

 

I never knew defense mattered.

[notin]

Recent performance is unfortunately the only thing some fans can focus upon. So to some, Bradley's 2021 means he's washed up forever at age 31. But others who can access bb-ref or fangraphs know that JBJ was also one of the Red Sox' best players in 2020...

 

Jackie didn't forget how to play baseball, and unless he's dealing with an undisclosed injury, I'd still take him defensively in centerfield over Kike Hernandez, who had a great second half in CF in '21 before dropping that fly at the end of the ALCS.

 

I’d take him in RF over Hernandez, too. And in Fenway, RF is the tougher position…

[moonslav59]

I’d take him in RF over Hernandez, too. And in Fenway, RF is the tougher position…

 

The defensive OF of Verdugo in LF, Kike or JBJ in CF and JBJ in RF or CF is light years better than this year's OF defense.

 

Now, the infield...

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

I’d take him in RF over Hernandez, too. And in Fenway, RF is the tougher position…

 

True, but most parks have more ground to be covered in center. I still think Verdugo as the full-time rightfielder is an option, with Kike floating around between LF, CF and 2B. I also envision a fourth outfielder joining the corp, maybe as a platoon with JBJ like previously discussed. I just doubt his name will be Suzuki, Schwarber or Duran...

[dgalehouse]

MassLive beat reporter Chris Cotillo examines the Red Sox bullpen:

 

https://www.masslive.com/redsox/2021/12/boston-red-sox-roster-analysis-bullpen-a-big-part-of-chaim-blooms-to-do-list-when-lockout-ends-garrett-whitlock-matt-barnes-look-like-keys-among-internal-options.html

 

Harm , I certainly hope the bullpen needs are addressed as soon as the lockout ends. As I have said ad nauseam , almost all close games come down to a battle of the pens.

[harmony]

Good points, but many felt his bat was washed up before 2020. It's not just about 2021.

 

I'm hopeful he can give us .650-.725.

To clear payroll space, would the Red Sox trade Jackie Bradley Jr. and, say, $8 million, for a nominal return and then pursue a higher-end outfielder via trade or free agency?

[moonslav59]

To clear payroll space, would the Red Sox trade Jackie Bradley Jr. and, say, $8 million, for a nominal return and then pursue a higher-end outfielder via trade or free agency?

 

I seriously doubt they are looking to do anything like this, but I have suggested several trades on BTV involving JBJ and a high salary player coming to us.

 

I doubt my trades (or similar one) will ever even be thought of by Bloom.

 

Here are some approved deals (I'm not sure I would do any of them):

 

JBJ & Groome

for

Alzolay, K Hendricks & J Heywood

 

JBJ, Dalbec & Downs

for

Campusano & Myers

 

JBJ, Downs, Bello & Groome

for

Mahle & Moustakas

 

Edited December 17, 2021 by moonslav59

[notin]

True, but most parks have more ground to be covered in center. I still think Verdugo as the full-time rightfielder is an option, with Kike floating around between LF, CF and 2B. I also envision a fourth outfielder joining the corp, maybe as a platoon with JBJ like previously discussed. I just doubt his name will be Suzuki, Schwarber or Duran...

 

 

I am very much on board with your Pham nomination.

 

I really like the idea of Verdugo in left, Kike in CF, and JBJ/Pham in RF…

[notin]

Speaking of Andriese, he just signed with the Giants. The Yomiuri Giants, that is…

[moonslav59]

Speaking of Andriese, he just signed with the Giants. The Yomiuri Giants, that is…

 

Your man, Inciarte, signed with the Yankees. The New York Yankees, that is...

 

(minor league deal.)

Edited December 17, 2021 by moonslav59

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

I am very much on board with your Pham nomination.

 

I really like the idea of Verdugo in left, Kike in CF, and JBJ/Pham in RF…

 

I think you originally suggested Pham, before McCutcheon. The former just makes more Blooming sense, as the latter earned $20 million last year.

 

Andrew knows he will have to accept less to play in '22, but if the plan is to platoon, he'll probably want as much as his partner (JBJ at $13M?)... and that's too costly for a platoon. Even if Cutch humbly seeks half his old salary, $10 mil is more than Kike makes, and is more than Renfroe was projected to make...

 

When Jackie and Mookie were both establishing themselves as starting players in the majors, both were tried in center and right. Obviously, the Sox made the right call; the more experienced JBJ got a better jump and thus covered more ground in AL centerfields, while Betts was quick enough to man the curling configurations of Fenway's rightfield. If Bradley has lost a step, then it makes sense to move him to a corner position; we might find out if they have a Spring Training...

[moonslav59]

I think you originally suggested Pham, before McCutcheon. The former just makes more Blooming sense, as the latter earned $20 million last year.

 

Andrew knows he will have to accept less to play in '22, but if the plan is to platoon, he'll probably want as much as his partner (JBJ at $13M?)... and that's too costly for a platoon. Even if Cutch humbly seeks half his old salary, $10 mil is more than Kike makes, and is more than Renfroe was projected to make...

 

When Jackie and Mookie were both establishing themselves as starting players in the majors, both were tried in center and right. Obviously, the Sox made the right call; the more experienced JBJ got a better jump and thus covered more ground in AL centerfields, while Betts was quick enough to man the curling configurations of Fenway's rightfield. If Bradley has lost a step, then it makes sense to move him to a corner position; we might find out if they have a Spring Training...

 

I doubt any GM pays Cutch $10M/1. He might earn $13M/2, but what do I know?

[Bellhorn04]

I doubt any GM pays Cutch $10M/1. He might earn $13M/2, but what do I know?

 

He'll probably get $6-7 mill from someone.

 

$6-7 mill is pretty much the going price for semi-has beens with an expected 1 WAR, I think.

[moonslav59]

He'll probably get $6-7 mill from someone.

 

$6-7 mill is pretty much the going price for semi-has beens with an expected 1 WAR, I think.

 

$13/2 hits your mark.

[Bellhorn04]

$13/2 hits your mark.

 

Yes, but frankly I'd be surprised if anyone gives him 2 years.

[mvp 78]

I think you originally suggested Pham, before McCutcheon. The former just makes more Blooming sense, as the latter earned $20 million last year.

 

Andrew knows he will have to accept less to play in '22, but if the plan is to platoon, he'll probably want as much as his partner (JBJ at $13M?)... and that's too costly for a platoon. Even if Cutch humbly seeks half his old salary, $10 mil is more than Kike makes, and is more than Renfroe was projected to make...

 

When Jackie and Mookie were both establishing themselves as starting players in the majors, both were tried in center and right. Obviously, the Sox made the right call; the more experienced JBJ got a better jump and thus covered more ground in AL centerfields, while Betts was quick enough to man the curling configurations of Fenway's rightfield. If Bradley has lost a step, then it makes sense to move him to a corner position; we might find out if they have a Spring Training...

 

McCutchen isn't going to get 10M. He's going to take a substantial pay cut. He's probably a part time player going forward.

[moonslav59]

Yes, but frankly I'd be surprised if anyone gives him 2 years.

 

Maybe $6M/1 with an option for $7M for year 2, with a $1M buy out.

 

$7M/1 or $13M/2- team choice.

[notin]

McCutchen isn't going to get 10M. He's going to take a substantial pay cut. He's probably a part time player going forward.

 

Not to mention, the labor dispute probably won’t be resolved until February, so he and many other non-elite free agents will be scrambling for any deal they can get…

[mvp 78]

Not to mention, the labor dispute probably won’t be resolved until February, so he and many other non-elite free agents will be scrambling for any deal they can get…

 

And if he doesn't want to play for the measly sum of 5M at that point, he can just retire.

[moonslav59]

And if he doesn't want to play for the measly sum of 5M at that point, he can just retire.

 

He might get $2-3M to play in Japan.

[notin]

He might get $2-3M to play in Japan.

 

Asian leagues are really all the rage right now…

[oldtimer]

Recent performance is unfortunately the only thing some fans can focus upon. So to some, Bradley's 2021 means he's washed up forever at age 31. But others who can access bb-ref or fangraphs know that JBJ was also one of the Red Sox' best players in 2020...

 

Jackie didn't forget how to play baseball, and unless he's dealing with an undisclosed injury, I'd still take him defensively in centerfield over Kike Hernandez, who had a great second half in CF in '21 before dropping that fly at the end of the ALCS.

 

Might we have gotten a better value for the money we are spending on Bradley?