A Realistic View at 2022: Part I

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

So I got to thinking.

 

Bloom says he wants to add a right-handed bat to the lineup as the team is getting “too left-handed.” But how left-handed are they really?

 

From what I can tell, the only left-handed hitters currently in the lineup full time are Devers and Verdugo. Certainly we can expect one of Bradley or Duran. But is that really too left-handed? From the right side, the Sox have Hernandez, Bogaerts, JD, and Vazquez. And Dalbec should be a full time player, too. That’s fine right handed bats!! Why would he want to make sure the final player in the lineup is also a righty?

 

Could be that Bloom is anticipating Casas at first base, and/or Dalbec and Duran traded. This might be a good debate for prognosticators -- which lefty bat will see more starts for Boston in 2022: Duran or Casas? How about in just the second half of '22?

[notin]

Could be that Bloom is anticipating Casas at first base, and/or Dalbec and Duran traded. This might be a good debate for prognosticators -- which lefty bat will see more starts for Boston in 2022: Duran or Casas? How about in just the second half of '22?

 

I hope that’s not the case, that he’s already counting Casas. I don’t like the idea of building the MLB roster around players t even on the 40 man roster yet. If Bloom doesn’t sign, say, Schwarber to play LF because of Casas, that’s wrong.

 

And early even going that far, even if he is courting Casas, that makes 3 left-handed hitters, maybe 4 to account for Bradley or Duran. Still not too left-handed…

[moonslav59]

But their positions don’t matter in that case…

 

I get your point about not needing to add another righty to the line—up, but having JBJ, Duran and Verdugo all bst be lefties is not a good plan. Either trade or platoon 1 or two of them, and find a lefty bat for the infield

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

I hope that’s not the case, that he’s already counting Casas. I don’t like the idea of building the MLB roster around players t even on the 40 man roster yet. If Bloom doesn’t sign, say, Schwarber to play LF because of Casas, that’s wrong.

 

And early even going that far, even if he is courting Casas, that makes 3 left-handed hitters, maybe 4 to account for Bradley or Duran. Still not too left-handed…

 

For all we know, Casas could be Bloom's big chip to dangle in a deal for a young, controllable MLB starting pitcher. Maybe the JBJ trade has made Casas more touchable, now that the Sox have another legit power-hitting first base prospect in Alex Binelas (also a lefty stick, as is Marcelo Mayer... maybe Bloom is too forward-thinking; if so, Yorke and his righty bat could be a lineup fixture in Boston before all of them).

[moonslav59]

To me, our most likely trade chips might be...

 

Duran

 

Downs (York’s seems so much more promising though farther away.)

 

Dalbec or Casas

 

Vaz or Wong- assuming we acquire a starting catcher

 

Not sure we can afford to trade Groome, Seabold or Winckowski, unless we get pitching in return.

[notin]

Anyone know what Bloom was offering for Stallings?

[mvp 78]

Anyone know what Bloom was offering for Stallings?

 

Has not been reported.

[moonslav59]

Anyone know what Bloom was offering for Stallings?

 

Stallings was the guy I made a bunch of BTV offers last winter.

 

Great on D and working the staff for the max.

 

I wish I knew what we offered and what more we might have been able to give to get him.

[Bellhorn04]

Stallings was the guy I made a bunch of BTV offers last winter.

 

Great on D and working the staff for the max.

 

I wish I knew what we offered and what more we might have been able to give to get him.

 

Ah moon, you love to torture yourself.

[moonslav59]

Ah moon, you love to torture yourself.

 

Not getting Stallings was a letdown, but I understand the business of baseball.

 

It’s not torturing, to me. It actually encouraged me, knowing they realize they can do better than Vaz.

 

[Bellhorn04]

You do wonder where these rumors come from. If the rumors are accurate, we seem to come in with a lot of silver medals LOL

[moonslav59]

You do wonder where these rumors come from. If the rumors are accurate, we seem to come in with a lot of silver medals LOL

 

I do think the reports after trades are more accurate, and it does seem like we are winning a lot of silver and bronze medals.

 

I think Bloom has very firm ideas about a player’s value and refuse to overpay. That and the limited spending budget.

[notin]

Not getting Stallings was a letdown, but I understand the business of baseball.

 

It’s not torturing, to me. It actually encouraged me, knowing they realize they can do better than Vaz.

 

 

Maybe.

 

Maybe they wanted Stallings because he has more control…

[moonslav59]

Maybe.

 

Maybe they wanted Stallings because he has more control…

 

True, but they must have liked him as a catcher, too.

 

What’s not to like about him?

 

He’s not the worst hitting catcher, either.

[mvp 78]

Maybe.

 

Maybe they wanted Stallings because he has more control…

 

Probably this. He has a similar outlook to Vaz. I know Vaz had a down year, but I could see him bouncing back. Stallings is a year older than Vaz, he was just brought along very slowly in MiLB.

[mvp 78]

True, but they must have liked him as a catcher, too.

 

What’s not to like about him?

 

He’s not the worst hitting catcher, either.

 

Vaz isn't the worst hitting catcher, either either.

[moonslav59]

Vaz isn't the worst hitting catcher, either either.

 

Not at all!

 

He was even near .800 from 2019-2020.

[moonslav59]

2019-2021

 

32 Catchers have 600+ PAs (That says a lot, right there.)

 

Vaszuez ranks...

 

16th OPS at .741, but only 7 catchers had an OPS over .780 (One just retired.)

19th in wRC+ at 94

 

However, when you look at the overall OPS by catchers in MLB, the league OPS has been:

 

.713 in 2019

.695 in 2020

.696 in 2021

 

 

 

[oldtimer]

Priorities:

 

1. Get a starting pitcher of at least #2 starter quality without breaking the bank or accepting high risk in years (not easy to do)

 

2. Get a right handed quality outfielder to replace Renfroe

 

3. Get a high quality reliever for late innings

 

4. Extend Rafie

[notin]

Priorities:

 

1. Get a starting pitcher of at least #2 starter quality without breaking the bank or accepting high risk in years (not easy to do)

 

2. Get a right handed quality outfielder to replace Renfroe

 

3. Get a high quality reliever for late innings

 

4. Extend Rafie

 

 

I would be surprised if Bloom did any of those things, except maybe #3.

 

1. The Sox have already signed 3 starting pitchers this off-season, and none of them to MiLB deals. With Sale, Eovaldi and Pivetta in place, and with the possibility of moving Houck and/or Whitlock to the rotation, any additional arms are likely to be bullpen or minor league depth contracts.

 

2. This one is a maybe. It all depends on who is in the OF With Verdugo. Is Kike moving to 2b? Is JBJ going to take over RF or start in CF? Will he be platooned? Is Duran still in the picture? I do think if they get a RHH outfielder, it will be Andrew McCutchen, who OPSd over .900 vs LHP last year and could be a corner platoon.

 

3. This one we all agree the Sox need, but then we’d as also agree 29 other teams do as well. But I doubt we agree with Bloom on the definition of a quality reliever. I expect him to be eyeing someone like Oliver Drake. But we’ll see who it is, if anyone.

 

 

4. Certainly a good idea. But if I was Devers’ agent, I’d have to be absolutely blown away to tell my client to extend. Of course, it all depends how the new CBA looks, too…

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

I would be surprised if Bloom did any of those things, except maybe #3.

 

1. The Sox have already signed 3 starting pitchers this off-season, and none of them to MiLB deals. With Sale, Eovaldi and Pivetta in place, and with the possibility of moving Houck and/or Whitlock to the rotation, any additional arms are likely to be bullpen or minor league depth contracts.

 

2. This one is a maybe. It all depends on who is in the OF With Verdugo. Is Kike moving to 2b? Is JBJ going to take over RF or start in CF? Will he be platooned? Is Duran still in the picture? I do think if they get a RHH outfielder, it will be Andrew McCutchen, who OPSd over .900 vs LHP last year and could be a corner platoon.

 

3. This one we all agree the Sox need, but then we’d as also agree 29 other teams do as well. But I doubt we agree with Bloom on the definition of a quality reliever. I expect him to be eyeing someone like Oliver Drake. But we’ll see who it is, if anyone.

 

 

4. Certainly a good idea. But if I was Devers’ agent, I’d have to be absolutely blown away to tell my client to extend. Of course, it all depends how the new CBA looks, too…

 

Agreed. Oldtimer's priorities are what we see as fans, but certainly not for what Bloom is prepared to pay at the cost of payroll or prospects.

[moonslav59]

I would be surprised if Bloom did any of those things, except maybe #3.

 

2. This one is a maybe. It all depends on who is in the OF With Verdugo. Is Kike moving to 2b? Is JBJ going to take over RF or start in CF? Will he be platooned? Is Duran still in the picture? I do think if they get a RHH outfielder, it will be Andrew McCutchen, who OPSd over .900 vs LHP last year and could be a corner platoon.

 

We likely traded Renfroe because of his defense.

 

I'm not sure McCutchen addresses the RF defense issue.

 

(JBJ might, but having a RH'd bat in RF would improve the offense.)

[Bellhorn04]

We likely traded Renfroe because of his defense.

 

I think so too. If Renfroe was a solid defender I highly doubt Bloom would have moved him.

[notin]

We likely traded Renfroe because of his defense.

 

I'm not sure McCutchen addresses the RF defense issue.

 

(JBJ might, but having a RH'd bat in RF would improve the offense.)

 

Well, we don’t need McCutchen to be Dwight Evans. He just needs to be as good or better than Renfroe for, say 6 or 7 innings. When LHP start…

[notin]

I think so too. If Renfroe was a solid defender I highly doubt Bloom would have moved him.

 

I actually don’t think Renfroe is a bad defender. I just think Fenway has more ground than he can cover…

[Nick]

2019-2021

 

32 Catchers have 600+ PAs (That says a lot, right there.)

 

Vaszuez ranks...

 

16th OPS at .741, but only 7 catchers had an OPS over .780 (One just retired.)

19th in wRC+ at 94

 

However, when you look at the overall OPS by catchers in MLB, the league OPS has been:

 

.713 in 2019

.695 in 2020

.696 in 2021

 

 

 

 

I think what you're saying is don't get hang up on league average when it comes to catchers.

 

Next step is to have xRC+ by positions.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

I actually don’t think Renfroe is a bad defender. I just think Fenway has more ground than he can cover…

 

I think he's below average, but just from what I saw the past two years. For example, Verdugo looked pretty good to me in RF in 2020, compared to Renfroe in 2021 (I know we're not supposed to say "Mookie would've had that" -- but I definitely thought it more last season, especially on pops or flies that fell in down the line...).

[Nick]

Random thought...

 

If Xander opts out, Sox can get rid of $107M worth of contracts after 2022. Only Sale, Barnes and Xander contracts totaling $45+M remain for those making $5M+.

 

What I'm saying is Bloom is getting rid of long term contracts that may hinder the club.

 

We also get rid of $16M on Price's last remaining year.

 

I think that's incredible. Future liabilities are dissipating.

 

Possible lineup without major additions for 2023. Would you watch this team?

 

C Hernandez

1B Casas

2B Yorke

SS Downs

3B Devers

LF Jimenez

CF Duran

RF Verdugo

DH Dalbec

SP1 Sale

SP2 Pivetta

SP3 Houck

SP4 Whitlock

SP5 Bello

SP6 Mata

 

Bullpen TBD

Edited December 11, 2021 by Nick

[Bellhorn04]

Random thought...

 

If Xander opts out, Sox can get rid of $107M worth of contracts after 2022. Only Sale, Barnes and Xander contracts totaling $45+M remain for those making $5M+.

 

What I'm saying is Bloom is getting rid of long term contracts that may hinder the club.

 

We also get rid of $16M on Price's last remaining year.

 

I think that's incredible. Future liabilities are dissipating.

 

Possible lineup without major additions for 2023. Would you watch this team?

 

C Hernandez

1B Casas

2B Yorke

SS Downs

3B Devers

LF Jimenez

CF Duran

RF Verdugo

DH Dalbec

SP1 Sale

SP2 Pivetta

SP3 Houck

SP4 Whitlock

SP5 Bello

SP6 Mata

 

Bullpen TBD

 

The simple answer is that people would watch that team if it's winning games.

 

One caveat is that only 2 guys in your starting lineup have proven they can hit major league pitching.

[notin]

I think he's below average, but just from what I saw the past two years. For example, Verdugo looked pretty good to me in RF in 2020, compared to Renfroe in 2021 (I know we're not supposed to say "Mookie would've had that" -- but I definitely thought it more last season, especially on pops or flies that fell in down the line...).

 

Yes, if Mookie is your benchmark, Renfroe is a bad defender. Of course, so are 28 other right fielders…