A Realistic View at 2022: Part I

[dgalehouse]

It's not easy, and you can sign the best of the best available, and still miss badly.

 

Nothing ventured , nothing gained.

[moonslav59]

Nothing ventured , nothing gained.

 

True.

 

I’m not against pen building.

 

I just think building a rotation is more predictable.

[mvp 78]

All you perverts have sick fantasies. Trivino AND Montas AND Iggy? When is enough enough?

[notin]

All you perverts have sick fantasies. Trivino AND Montas AND Iggy? When is enough enough?

 

It’s not like he wanted them covered with whipped cream…

[moonslav59]

It’s not like he wanted them covered with whipped cream…

 

Not even nekid!

[moonslav59]

I keep waiting for some significant Sox news, as the rest of baseball is going nutty.

[moonslav59]

I'm pretty certain we will be adding a pitcher or two to the roster, but here's a look at what innings we lost, and what we might gain, assuming the impossible 100% health:

 

IP Pitcher ERA/WHIP in 2021

 

158 ERod 4.74/1.389

It is likely Sale will not be able to add 158 IP to the 43 he has in 2021, but it's not super unlikely, either. Maybe Pivetta can add to his 155 IP in 30 starts, but we are not really filling an empty slot by adding innings to Sale and Pivetta.

 

137 Richards 4.87/1.595 (110 as SP 5.22/1.650)

114 Perez 4.74/1.509 (100 as SP 4.77/1.520)

Here's where it gets difficult without adding another starter. We may also lose Houck's 60 IP as a SP'er. We may add 120-160 from Whitlock, if he is moved to the rotation.

Wacha might take 100-160 innings, in 2022.

Seabold and Winckowski look to be the best internal options, without moving Houck and/or Whitlock to the rotation.

 

62 Ottavino 4.21/1.452

37 Andriese 6.03/1.768

25 Robles 3.60/1.360

26 Richards 3.42/1.367 in relief

14 Perez 4.50/1.429 in relief

This is about 160 IP, but with others like Workman, the total is really more like 200. It's not like who we need to replace did great, but it's not always easy finding good RP'ers.

A lot depends on what we do with Houck. I'm expecting many more IP than 59 as a SP and 10 as a RP'er. It's possible we lose his 59 IP as a SP'er but add 60-120 innings to the pen.

Maybe Barnes can go from 55 to 65 (+10), Brasier from 12 to 52 (+40) and Davis from 17 to 47 (+30). That would essentially cover the lost innings, but I hope we can do better than from what we have, now.

 

All-in-all, let's add some pitching!!!

 

Edited November 30, 2021 by moonslav59

[moonslav59]

MLBTR reports...

 

Right-hander Ryan Brasier agreed to a $1.4MM salary with the Red Sox for the upcoming season, tweets Robert Murray of FanSided. The 2021 season was a nightmare for Brasier, who suffered a broken finger in Spring Training, strained a calf muscle while rehabbing that injury and then was hospitalized after being struck in the head by a comeback liner while working back from the calf issue. The 34-year-old made it back to the mound in September and pitched to a 1.50 ERA in 12 frames.

 

On Chris Taylor...

 

There’s one team that’s apparently not in the mix [on Taylor], however, as Chris Cotillo of MassLive reports that the Red Sox don’t seem to be heavily involved.

Edited December 1, 2021 by moonslav59

[Old Red]

I keep waiting for some significant Sox news, as the rest of baseball is going nutty.

 

The rest of baseball going nutty I agree with, but isn’t looking more, and more that the Sox are just going to ride out next year with Bogey, and that will be his last year in Boston. I can’t see the Sox paying him anything close to $300M. Then just letting Raffy play out his last two years, and let him follow Bogey on the same path out of town, because I can’t see the Sox shelling out close to $400M for him either.

[mvp 78]

MLBTR reports...

 

Right-hander Ryan Brasier agreed to a $1.4MM salary with the Red Sox for the upcoming season, tweets Robert Murray of FanSided. The 2021 season was a nightmare for Brasier, who suffered a broken finger in Spring Training, strained a calf muscle while rehabbing that injury and then was hospitalized after being struck in the head by a comeback liner while working back from the calf issue. The 34-year-old made it back to the mound in September and pitched to a 1.50 ERA in 12 frames.

 

On Chris Taylor...

 

There’s one team that’s apparently not in the mix [on Taylor], however, as Chris Cotillo of MassLive reports that the Red Sox don’t seem to be heavily involved.

 

Not heartbroken over this.

[moonslav59]

Not heartbroken over this.

 

I'm not either.

[mvp 78]

I'm not either.

 

I don't think Bloom is going to sign any of the QO guys. There will be a big draft class next season.

 

An offseason of Wacha/Paxton/2 bargain relievers/Iggy isn't leaving me very fulfilled.

[moonslav59]

I don't think Bloom is going to sign any of the QO guys. There will be a big draft class next season.

 

An offseason of Wacha/Paxton/2 bargain relievers/Iggy isn't leaving me very fulfilled.

 

Agreed.

 

I still think we may get involved in a trade with one of the 4-6 teams that seem to be tanking.

 

I know I have mentioned Montas (with maybe Trivino being added in), but there could be a lot of arms available via trade.

 

I know building the farm is still close to the top priority, at least until we get more depth and quality added to it, so maybe my suggestion will never happen.

 

I'm fine with keeping the farm strong, but there are a couple prospects I think we could deal, without harming the farm all that much:

 

Duran- I like our OF as it is, and adding a 4th OF'er is usually very cheap.

 

Downs- I don't see him as Bogey's replacement, and I know Arroyo's health is always an issue, but for some reason, I've just never been all that high on him.

 

Together, BTV has them at over $30M value. That's aout what Montas & Trivno are worth (maybe add Ward, Potts, Rosario or Jimenez.)

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

I don't think Bloom is going to sign any of the QO guys. .

 

I never thought he would, especially Taylor -- a jack of all knaves who wouldn't be a bargain. I'd be more shocked if Bloom signed Taylor than Correa.

 

The lack of QO for Stroman is what gave guys like us hope, but we know Bloom's not giving a good-not-great pitcher $25 mil for even one year -- and no way for three or four; not when the Sox could ink 10 pitchers for $100 million total in the next four years... and one of them would probably wind up better than Stro.

[moonslav59]

I never thought he would, especially Taylor -- a jack of all knaves who wouldn't be a bargain. I'd be more shocked if Bloom signed Taylor than Correa.

 

The lack of QO for Stroman is what gave guys like us hope, but we know Bloom's not giving a good-not-great pitcher $25 mil for even one year -- and no way for three or four; not when the Sox could ink 10 pitchers for $100 million total in the next four years... and one of them would probably wind up better than Stro.

 

It's hard to really know Bloom's M.O. with an fat checkbook, but certainly it seems like he prefers bargains to long overpays.

[mvp 78]

I never thought he would, especially Taylor -- a jack of all knaves who wouldn't be a bargain. I'd be more shocked if Bloom signed Taylor than Correa.

 

The lack of QO for Stroman is what gave guys like us hope, but we know Bloom's not giving a good-not-great pitcher $25 mil for even one year -- and no way for three or four; not when the Sox could ink 10 pitchers for $100 million total in the next four years... and one of them would probably wind up better than Stro.

 

There's zero chance they are signing Correa. None.

 

It's probably going to be Schwarber/Iggy/2 relief arms. If that.

[mvp 78]

It's hard to really know Bloom's M.O. with an fat checkbook, but certainly it seems like he prefers bargains to long overpays.

 

Which is fine if you have talent coming up through your system, but we're not quite there yet.

[Old Red]

Agreed.

 

I still think we may get involved in a trade with one of the 4-6 teams that seem to be tanking.

 

I know I have mentioned Montas (with maybe Trivino being added in), but there could be a lot of arms available via trade.

 

I know building the farm is still close to the top priority, at least until we get more depth and quality added to it, so maybe my suggestion will never happen.

 

I'm fine with keeping the farm strong, but there are a couple prospects I think we could deal, without harming the farm all that much:

 

Duran- I like our OF as it is, and adding a 4th OF'er is usually very cheap.

 

Downs- I don't see him as Bogey's replacement, and I know Arroyo's health is always an issue, but for some reason, I've just never been all that high on him.

 

Together, BTV has them at over $30M value. That's aout what Montas & Trivno are worth (maybe add Ward, Potts, Rosario or Jimenez.)

 

Pipe dreaming again is fine, but none of your pipe dreams ever come true.

[Old Red]

It's hard to really know Bloom's M.O. with an fat checkbook, but certainly it seems like he prefers bargains to long overpays.

 

Bloom doesn’t have a fat checkbook in Boston, and that is why he was brought here, so does he really have much of a choice on what kind of deals he makes? Like I said before Theo, and Dombrowski couldn’t, and wouldn’t work like this. Bloom has to.

[Bellhorn04]

Pipe dreaming again is fine, but none of your pipe dreams ever come true.

 

And you're really becoming a broken record with this.

[mvp 78]

Bloom doesn’t have a fat checkbook in Boston, and that is why he was brought here, so does he really have much of a choice on what kind of deals he makes? Like I said before Theo, and Dombrowski couldn’t, and wouldn’t work like this. Bloom has to.

 

I would say that I think the ownership has different values now in 2021 than they did in 2011. Theo did what was asked of him. He fed the monster pretty well. Dombrowski did what was asked of him. Push the pedal to the medal in win another championship. I think ownership is more $$$ conscience today than they were a few years ago.

[mvp 78]

And you're really becoming a broken record with this.

 

This is one of the personal issues that I can't put any effort into following. It used to be that every poster went after A700 24/7. Now, it's moon. Heavy lies the crown.

[Old Red]

And you're really becoming a broken record with this.

 

Name the last time anything of his wishes, hopes, or predictions came true. I’m just saying.

[Old Red]

I would say that I think the ownership has different values now in 2021 than they did in 2011. Theo did what was asked of him. He fed the monster pretty well. Dombrowski did what was asked of him. Push the pedal to the medal in win another championship. I think ownership is more $$$ conscience today than they were a few years ago.

 

You said it different than I did, but I think we pretty much agree that JH is more stingy with his money than he was just a few years ago.

[Bellhorn04]

Name the last time anything of his wishes, hopes, or predictions came true. I’m just saying.

 

It's an odd question when you've only been here a few months.

 

moon was definitely one of the more hopeful posters about the 2021 Sox toward the end when they looked like toast.

[Bellhorn04]

I would say that I think the ownership has different values now in 2021 than they did in 2011. Theo did what was asked of him. He fed the monster pretty well. Dombrowski did what was asked of him. Push the pedal to the medal in win another championship. I think ownership is more $$$ conscience today than they were a few years ago.

 

I think they've definitely done a philosophical re-set.

[Old Red]

It's an odd question when you've only been here a few months.

 

moon was definitely one of the more hopeful posters about the 2021 Sox toward the end when they looked like toast.

 

I was talking about his lineups, trades, or signings.

[mvp 78]

You said it different than I did, but I think we pretty much agree that JH is more stingy with his money than he was just a few years ago.

 

Is it being "stingy" or keeping long term payroll lower for "flexibility" and staying away from dead money (a la Price and Pedroia)?

[mvp 78]

It's an odd question when you've only been here a few months.

 

moon was definitely one of the more hopeful posters about the 2021 Sox toward the end when they looked like toast.

 

And yet he hasn't been called "dutchy" or "babe" yet. Interesting.........

[Old Red]

Is it being "stingy" or keeping long term payroll lower for "flexibility" and staying away from dead money (a la Price and Pedroia)?

 

I think all of the above.