A Realistic View at 2022: Part I

[mvp 78]

What if the answer at 1b is Xander? I think he could be Gold glove caliber here .That leaves Rafy ? He’s got a great bat but makes far too many errors .Rafy certainly could field better than Manny in LF .LF Devers CF Kiki And RF Verdugo .I make Renfroe the 4th outfielder and have Devers and Kyle rotate between DH and LF .I Trade Duran for Pitching .I trade or send Bobby down if he has options also Keeping Casas in AAA .until trade deadline.That brings up SS and 3B.Quesion ? Could Bobby be an upgrade at 3b ? If not I’m trading Bobby.Maybe we will make a run at Semien .FA Shwarbs ,Semian ,Verlander .

 

1. You don't move athletic guys to 1b just because you have a need.

2. "Trade or send Bobby down... Could Bobby be an upgrade at 3b?" I don't understand this thought process. Regardless, he's not a very good fielder anymore. He's pretty stiff and isn't great at 1b. I don't see how he'd be better than Raffy at 3b. Raffy does make errors from time to time, but he also makes some plays that Dalbec would have no chance at.

[mvp 78]

I would not judge Renfroe's inability to hit "playoff caliber pitching" based on a dozen games, but I do think he might be replaced with a better defensive RF'er who can also hit.

 

Choker.

[moonslav59]

1. You don't move athletic guys to 1b just because you have a need.

2. "Trade or send Bobby down... Could Bobby be an upgrade at 3b?" I don't understand this thought process. Regardless, he's not a very good fielder anymore. He's pretty stiff and isn't great at 1b. I don't see how he'd be better than Raffy at 3b. Raffy does make errors from time to time, but he also makes some plays that Dalbec would have no chance at.

 

Raffy has good range and very good quickness. He needs some work on his footing and throws, but he's still young.

 

I don't see this "stiffness" people say about Dalbec. He looked better and better as the year went on, but he is not yet even average.

 

He did play 3B most of his career and was apparently decent, there, but I would not swap him and Devers. Maybe his learning curve is just long.

 

With Casas in the wings, I think our corner IF'ers are not moving anywhere. Maybe Dalbec DHs some, once JD leaves. This assumes, he can hit well enough, going forward.

[moonslav59]

BTV lists some possible non tenders...

 

Angels:

 

Non-tender candidates: Phil Gosselin, Jimmy Herget, Sam Selman, Chad Wallach, Keon Wong

Non-tender bubble case: Luis Rengifo

 

Astros:

 

Non-tender candidates: Brandon Bielak, Kent Emmanuel, Taylor Jones, Rafael Montero, Enoli Paredes, Blake Taylor

Non-tender bubble case: Aledmys Diaz

Note: Even though Diaz’s contract ran only through 2021, he actually has one more year of arbitration eligibility.

 

Athletics:

 

Option declines: Andrew Chafin, Jake Diekman

Non-tender candidates: Austin Allen, Paul Blackburn, Skye Bolt, Adam Kolarek, Vimael Machin

Non-tender bubble case: Lou Trivino

Note: With the A’s expected to go into full rebuild mode, they may decide to keep some of these players because they’ll need to field a team. They’re all cheap enough.

 

Blue Jays:

 

Non-tender candidates: Anthony Castro, Ross Stripling, Trent Thornton

Non-tender bubble case: Ryan Borucki

 

Braves:

 

Option decline: Josh Tomlin

Non-tender candidates: Orlando Arcia, Johan Camargo, Grant Dayton, Adam Duvall, Terrance Gore, Guillermo Heredia, Yoan Lopez, Sean Newcomb, Touki Toussaint, Chadwick Tromp, Jacob Webb, Kyle Wright

 

Brewers:

 

Non-tender candidates: Jandel Gustave, Keston Hiura, Luke Maile, Hoby Milner, Angel Perdomo, Pablo Reyes, Miguel Sanchez, Eric Yardley

Non-tender bubble cases: Dan Vogelbach, John Curtiss

Note: Hiura does not appear to have any trade value left, so if the Brewers decide to move on from him, he’ll likely be a free agent.

 

Cardinals:

 

Option declines: Matt Carpenter, Carlos Martinez

Non-tender candidates: Austin Dean, Junior Fernandez, Andrew Knizner, Max Moroff, Ljay Newsome, Alex Reyes, Brandon Waddell, Jake Woodford, Justin Williams, T.J. Zeuch

Non-tender bubble case: Ryan Helsley

Note: Alex Reyes is the surprise here. His projections simply don’t meet his arbitration estimate.

 

Cubs:

 

Non-tender candidates: Jason Adam, Sergio Alcantara, Rex Brothers, P.J. Higgins, Jonathan Holder, Dillon Maples, Nick Martini, Manuel Rodriguez, Adrian Sampson, Kohl Stewart, Trayce Thompson, Brad Wieck

 

Diamondbacks:

 

Option declines: Kole Calhoun, Tyler Clippard

Non-tender candidates: Zach Burdi, Brett de Geus, Kevin Ginkel, Matt Peacock, Sean Poppen, Caleb Smith, Riley Smith, Josh VanMeter, Jordan Weems, Taylor Widener, Andrew Young

 

Dodgers:

 

Option decline: Joe Kelly

Non-tender candidates: Scott Alexander, Andy Burns, Garrett Cleavinger, Billy McKinney, Sheldon Neuse, Evan Phillips, Luke Raley, Jimmie Sherfy, Stephen Souza Jr., Brock Stewart

Non-tender bubble cases: Austin Barnes, Cody Bellinger

Note: It would appear that Bellinger has done just enough in the post-season to climb just over the line. Keep in mind that he’s still viewed as a high-upside player — our model projects him to be worth $17M in field value — but he’s very expensive, with an arb price of $16M. So while we think the Dodgers will retain him, it’s not an easy call.

 

Giants:

 

Option decline: Johnny Cueto

Non-tender candidates: Tyler Beede, Curt Casali, Jaylin Davis, Alex Dickerson, Mauricio Dubon, Jason Vosler

 

Guardians:

 

Option decline: Roberto Perez

Non-tender candidates: Logan Allen, Daniel Johnson, J.C. Mejia, Josh Naylor, Trevor Stephan, Nick Wittgren, Alex Young, Bradley Zimmer

Non-tender bubble cases: Bobby Bradley, Yu Chang, Austin Hedges, Oscar Mercado

Note: The Guardians are facing a roster crunch, with multiple top prospects needing to be protected, so we expect a lot of activity here.

 

Mariners:

 

Option decline: Kyle Seager [option decline reported 10/31]

Non-tender candidates: Joey Gerber, Jose Godoy, Erik Swanson, Donovan Walton

Non-tender bubble cases: Nick Margevicius, Yohan Ramirez, Luis Torrens

 

Marlins:

 

Non-tender candidates: Jesus Aguilar, Jorge Alfaro, Lewis Brinson, Paul Campbell, Daniel Castano, Isan Diaz, Jordan Holloway, Steven Okert, Magneuris Sierra

Non-tender bubble cases: Monte Harrison, Jorge Guzman

Note: Sadly for Miami, the Christian Yelich trade was a complete bust, as Brinson, Diaz, Harrison and (since DFA’d) Yamamoto all have zero value.

 

Mets:

 

Option declines: Dellin Betances, Kevin Pillar

Non-tender candidates: Miguel Castro, Yennsy Diaz, Robert Gsellman, Corey Oswalt [outrighted 10/29], Mark Payton, Jose Peraza [outrighted 10/29], Sean Reid-Foley, Drew Smith, Robert Stock [outrighted 10/29], Trevor Williams, Jordan Yamamoto

 

Nationals:

 

Non-tender candidates: Josh Bell, Sam Clay, Mike Ford, Ryne Harper, Andres Machado, Victor Robles, Josh Rogers, Andrew Stevenson, Wander Suero, Austin Voth

Non-tender bubble cases: Joe Ross, Tanner Rainey

Notes: Bell is just getting too expensive relative to his production. Robles’ fielding prowess is not enough to make up for his continued poor hitting, and we believe the Nats will move on from both.

 

Orioles:

 

Non-tender candidates: Nick Ciuffo, Marcos Diplan, Conner Greene, Kelvin Gutierrez, Eric Hanhold, Hunter Harvey, Brooks Kriske, Richie Martin, Pedro Severino, Spenser Watkins

Non-tender bubble case: Jorge Lopez

 

Padres:

 

Option decline: Jake Marisnick

Non-tender candidates: Dan Altavilla, Shaun Anderson, Miguel Diaz [outrighted 10/30], James Norwood, Brian O’Grady [outrighted 10/30], Emilio Pagan, Matt Strahm, Trey Wingenter

Notes: Both Pagan and Strahm (the latter due to health issues) have declined dramatically of late.

 

Phillies:

 

Option declines: Odubel Herrera, Andrew McCutchen

Non-tender candidates: Travis Jankowski, Andrew Knapp, Jojo Romero, Ramon Rosso, Ronald Torreyes

Non-tender bubble cases: Adam Haseley, Mickey Moniak

 

Pirates:

 

Non-tender candidates: Anthony Alford, Tanner Anderson, Anthony Banda, Michael Chavis, Wil Crowe, Enyel De Los Santos, Wilmer Difo, Phillip Evans, Sam Howard, Kyle Keller, Chad Kuhl, Nick Mears, Colin Moran, Kevin Newman, Luis Oviedo, Michael Perez, Cody Ponce, Cole Tucker, Duane Underwood, Jr.

Non-tender bubble case: Jared Oliva, Dillon Peters

Note: It looks like it’s time for the Pirates to move on from Tucker.

 

Rangers:

 

Non-tender candidates: Drew Anderson [released 10/29], Wes Benjamin, Brock Burke, Willie Calhoun, Jharel Cotton, Demarcus Evans, Ronald Guzman, Dennis Santana

Non-tender bubble case: Joe Palumbo

 

Rays:

 

Non-tender candidates: Nick Anderson, D.J. Johnson, Cody Reed, Ryan Sherriff, Jeffrey Springs

Note: It’s a testament to the Rays’ value-conscious philosophy that they have so few players who project to have negative or zero value. That said, they too have a roster crunch coming, so they’ll be active in the trade market beyond these cuts.

 

Red Sox:

 

Option declines: Martin Perez, Garrett Richards

Player option decline: Kyle Schwarber

Non-tender candidates: Austin Davis, Darwinzon Hernandez, John Schreiber, Phillips Valdez

 

Reds:

 

Option declines: Tucker Barnhart

Option decline bubble case: Wade Miley

Player option decline: Nick Castellanos

Non-tender candidates: Aristides Aquino, Alex Blandino, Phillip Diehl, Carson Fulmer, Amir Garrett, Ryan Hendrix, Jeff Hoffman, Cionel Perez

 

Rockies:

 

Non-tender candidates: Daniel Bard, Carlos Estevez, Ashton Goudeau, Garrett Hampson, Raimel Tapia, Jesus Tinoco

Non-tender bubble case: Robert Stephenson

Note: Bard declined significantly in the second half of 2021, and he’s just getting too expensive. Tapia is out of options.

 

Royals:

 

Non-tender candidates: Hanser Alberto [outrighted 10/29], Richard Lovelady, Ryan O’Hearn, Emmanuel Rivera, Tyler Zuber

Non-tender bubble case: Jakob Junis

 

Tigers:

 

Non-tender candidates: Bryan Garcia, Rony Garcia, Grayson Greiner, Drew Hutchison, Joe Jimenez

Non-tender bubble case: Niko Goodrum

 

Twins:

 

Option decline: Alex Colome

Non-tender candidates: Willians Astudillo, Jake Cave, John Gant, Kyle Garlick, Juan Minaya, Rob Refsnyder, Devin Smeltzer, Lewis Thorpe

Non-tender bubble case: Cody Stashak

 

White Sox:

 

Option decline bubble cases: Cesar Hernandez, Craig Kimbrel

Non-tender candidates: Ryan Burr, Zack Collins, Jimmy Cordero, Jace Fry, Brian Goodwin, Marco Hernandez, Reynaldo Lopez, Evan Marshall, Jose Ruiz

Notes: It’s been reported that the White Sox are considering non-tendering Hernandez, whose WAR numbers might suggest otherwise. But most of that value comes from defense, and teams just don’t value 2B gloves anymore. Meanwhile, they reportedly want to tender and trade Kimbrel, whose value is barely above water, according to our model.

 

Yankees:

 

Option decline: Darren O’Day

Option decline bubble case: Brett Gardner

Non-tender candidates: Albert Abreu, Greg Allen, Miguel Andujar, Clint Frazier, Tim Locastro, Nick Nelson, Rougned Odor, Wandy Peralta, Gary Sanchez, Andrew Velazquez

Notes: It seems like this is the year the Yankees are finally going to move on from Andujar, Frazier, and Sanchez. None have trade value, according to our model. Sanchez, of course, has field value, but he’s just getting too expensive, even for the Yankees — he’s a $7M player due to make $8M. Odor is only owed league-minimum (the Rangers are paying down his contract), but he’s not worth even that.

[mvp 78]

Raffy has good range and very good quickness. He needs some work on his footing and throws, but he's still young.

 

I don't see this "stiffness" people say about Dalbec. He looked better and better as the year went on, but he is not yet even average.

 

He did play 3B most of his career and was apparently decent, there, but I would not swap him and Devers. Maybe his learning curve is just long.

 

With Casas in the wings, I think our corner IF'ers are not moving anywhere. Maybe Dalbec DHs some, once JD leaves. This assumes, he can hit well enough, going forward.

 

I think Raffy is the 3B unless they bring someone else in. They don't have anyone in the org right now who can be a 3B for 162. Could Dalbec sub for Raffy here and there, probably. I think if the left side of the IF was Xander and Dalbec, the defense would look really bad.

 

Casas is a shoe in to be the 1B at some point in 2022.

 

If Xander isn't traded, the question marks will be 4th OF/2B/C. Are they comfortable with Duran as the backup? Can Arroyo stay healthy? Bring back Iggy to compete for the starting role and provide backup at SS and 3B? Do they want to spend 7M on Vaz? Cut bait with Plawecki? Will they try to rotate Wong in?

[mvp 78]

I don't think they'll nontender Davis or DHern. I think both of them are fine in a bullpen role.

 

Nontender Valdez? Ok? I think he got the short end of the stick this season, but I don't think it's a move that comes back and bites you. I think DHern could turn into a late inning guy if things break right.

[moonslav59]

I think Raffy is the 3B unless they bring someone else in. They don't have anyone in the org right now who can be a 3B for 162. Could Dalbec sub for Raffy here and there, probably. I think if the left side of the IF was Xander and Dalbec, the defense would look really bad.

 

Casas is a shoe in to be the 1B at some point in 2022.

 

If Xander isn't traded, the question marks will be 4th OF/2B/C. Are they comfortable with Duran as the backup? Can Arroyo stay healthy? Bring back Iggy to compete for the starting role and provide backup at SS and 3B? Do they want to spend 7M on Vaz? Cut bait with Plawecki? Will they try to rotate Wong in?

 

Good summary of the major points, this winter.

 

I like the idea of Iggy as our utility IF'er.

[mvp 78]

Good summary of the major points, this winter.

 

I like the idea of Iggy as our utility IF'er.

 

When Iggy came back, he said it felt like a "homecoming." Wonder if that will make it likely he sticks around? He seemed to get along really well with the team.

[moonslav59]

I don't think they'll nontender Davis or DHern. I think both of them are fine in a bullpen role.

 

Nontender Valdez? Ok? I think he got the short end of the stick this season, but I don't think it's a move that comes back and bites you. I think DHern could turn into a late inning guy if things break right.

 

I don't think any of those 3 are even "bubble non tenders," which this article categorized for some teams but not the Sox.

 

My "bubble non tender" list is:

R Hernandez or Plawecki

 

Non tender/ DFA/ Trade:

Rosario

Potts

[moonslav59]

When Iggy came back, he said it felt like a "homecoming." Wonder if that will make it likely he sticks around? He seemed to get along really well with the team.

 

Even if he ends up hitting like Marwin, he's a better fielder.

[mvp 78]

I don't think any of those 3 are even "bubble non tenders," which this article categorized for some teams but not the Sox.

 

My "bubble non tender" list is:

R Hernandez or Plawecki

 

Non tender/ DFA/ Trade:

Rosario

Potts

 

I think there is no chance Ronaldo is nontendered. His bat is decent enough to carry him even if he has to move off position.

 

Is Plawecki/Wong a good enough unit to get by? Use the additional 7M for Vaz towards the starting rotation?

[moonslav59]

Some BTV adjusted values...

 

Sale is now a plus (1.0)

Plawecki is at 0.5

Renfroe 0.4

Brasier 0.3

Araus 0.2

Sawamura -1.8

Barnes -4.9

JD -9.6 (basically saying we'd have to pay $9M to give him away.)

 

Houck is up to 42.7 (just below Mayer at 42.8)

Duran held at 23.1 (maybe they haven't adjusted him, yet)

Whitlock up to 21.1

Downs still at 11.8 (see Duran comment)

Jimenez 10.8 (Rule 5 protectee or not?)

Kike's value shot up to 10.6

Pivetta 4.9

Bello 4.8

Jordan 4.5

Groome 4.3

Seabold 3.5

 

I think others stayed about the same.

 

Vaz is 1.6 which suggests he's worth paying the $7M option and then some.

[mvp 78]

Even if he ends up hitting like Marwin, he's a better fielder.

 

Iggy has never had WRC+ seasons like Marwin did in 20 and 21. If Iggy runs out there with a 80 WRC+, that's fine with me. Steamer is projecting a 90 WRC+ for next season (same as Arroyo).

 

Sign Iggy for 2 years and Iggy can help be a bridge if Xander leaves after 2022?

[moonslav59]

I think there is no chance Ronaldo is nontendered. His bat is decent enough to carry him even if he has to move off position.

 

Is Plawecki/Wong a good enough unit to get by? Use the additional 7M for Vaz towards the starting rotation?

 

You are likely right on Ronaldo, but I can't see us carrying 4 catchers, again, despite Vaz being in his last season of control.

 

I think we trade Vaz or non-tender Plawecki. If we keep vaz, we may sign someone like Pina as a back-up or go with Wong/Hernandez as the back-up to Vazz.

[mvp 78]

Vaz is 1.6 which suggests he's worth paying the $7M option and then some.

 

If Vaz is gone, it's probably only for payroll flexibility. Will Bloom still be kept under a specific threshold?

[moonslav59]

Iggy has never had WRC+ seasons like Marwin did in 20 and 21. If Iggy runs out there with a 80 WRC+, that's fine with me. Steamer is projecting a 90 WRC+ for next season (same as Arroyo).

 

Sign Iggy for 2 years and Iggy can help be a bridge if Xander leaves after 2022?

 

His D has slipped a bit, but he's still a plus in my book.

 

I'd try to bring him back, unless they have eyes on something big (Baez or Semien.)

[mvp 78]

You are likely right on Ronaldo, but I can't see us carrying 4 catchers, again, despite Vaz being in his last season of control.

 

I think we trade Vaz or non-tender Plawecki. If we keep vaz, we may sign someone like Pina as a back-up or go with Wong/Hernandez as the back-up to Vazz.

 

I could see them using Wong as the backup. I don't think Ronaldo is there yet. They are going to make sure his bat fully develops in AAA as that is his carrying tool. He needs playing time.

[moonslav59]

If Vaz is gone, it's probably only for payroll flexibility. Will Bloom still be kept under a specific threshold?

 

I would think Bloom will likely be told to try and stay under or near $210M but not as forcibly as this season. (Remember how they said staying under was not a high priority, last winter? Yea, right.)

 

$7M offers pretty good flexibility, but who do we get as our FT catcher? At what cost?

[mvp 78]

I have to say that after a long while, the Sox finally have a group of interesting MiLB catching prospects:

 

Wong

Hernandez

Cottam

Groshans

Hickey

Lira

 

They aren't all blue chippers, but it's a much better mix of guys than they have had since Vaz and Swihart came up.

[mvp 78]

I would think Bloom will likely be told to try and stay under or near $210M but not as forcibly as this season. (Remember how they said staying under was not a high priority, last winter? Yea, right.)

 

$7M offers pretty good flexibility, but who do we get as our FT catcher? At what cost?

 

If they like what they see in AFL, maybe they just say Plawecki and Wong are good enough for 2022?

[moonslav59]

If they like what they see in AFL, maybe they just say Plawecki and Wong are good enough for 2022?

 

I could see that, but maybe they sign Pina on the cheap and still save by trading Vaz (or not giving the option.)

 

That way, we could have Pee-Pee at catcher (Plawecki & Pina)

[notin]

If they like what they see in AFL, maybe they just say Plawecki and Wong are good enough for 2022?

 

I'd put the chances at the catchers in 2022 being Vazquez and Plawecki at close to 90%. If anything, maybe the Sox non-tender Plawecki, which might save $2.5-$3mill, minus the cost of his replacement (which might be a minimum wage Wong)...

[moonslav59]

MLBTR on Vaz...

 

The Red Sox hold a $7MM club option on catcher Christian Vazquez, but the price to retain their backstop was nearly a bit steeper. MassLive.com’s Chris Cotillo points out that Vazquez’s contract called for that option to rise to $8MM upon reaching 502 plate appearances, but he fell just four trips to the plate shy of that mark. Chief baseball officer Chaim Bloom spoke highly of Vazquez in his end-of-season press conference, telling reporters: “It’s a hard position to check all the boxes and you don’t take for granted when you have someone who has shown that he can do it.” The 31-year-old Vazquez hit .258/.308/.352 with plus defense behind the dish this season, and based on Bloom’s comments imply there’s a good chance he’ll be back in the fold next season as well.

 

Also...

 

Catcher Roberto Perez’s $7MM option for the 2022 season isn’t likely to be exercised by the Guardians...

Edited November 1, 2021 by moonslav59

[moonslav59]

I'd put the chances at the catchers in 2022 being Vazquez and Plawecki at close to 90%. If anything, maybe the Sox non-tender Plawecki, which might save $2.5-$3mill, minus the cost of his replacement (which might be a minimum wage Wong)...

 

I just don't think Vaz and Plawecki are worth $10M.

 

I'd say 67% both are back.

[notin]

I just don't think Vaz and Plawecki are worth $10M.

 

I'd say 67% both are back.

 

Not too much of a difference, as we are apart by about 1 in 4 to 1 in 5 chance. But if either is not back, Plawecki is more likely. Backup catcher do play more than other bench players (assuming no injuries), but I doubt Bloom willfully overhauls the starting lineup of the American League runner-ups all that much...

[Bellhorn04]

I'll place my bet on Vazquez and Wong.

[mvp 78]

I just don't think Vaz and Plawecki are worth $10M.

 

I'd say 67% both are back.

 

Yeah, it's a lot of money for a unit that only produces 1 fWAR.

[Bellhorn04]

Interesting perhaps that Eovaldi did well in his 3 starts with Wong behind the plate. So Wong could be his personal catcher in 2022. It all "dovetails"!

[Bellhorn04]

Yeah, it's a lot of money for a unit that only produces 1 fWAR.

 

Not necessarily, for more than one reason.

[moonslav59]

Not too much of a difference, as we are apart by about 1 in 4 to 1 in 5 chance. But if either is not back, Plawecki is more likely. Backup catcher do play more than other bench players (assuming no injuries), but I doubt Bloom willfully overhauls the starting lineup of the American League runner-ups all that much...

 

Agreed. There is little need to pay Plawecki $2.5-3M, when Wong can probably do just as well.