A Realistic View at 2022: Part I

[Bellhorn04]

Why else would Maldanado be playing, if he is so horrible at traditional defensive stats and is hitting like .100?

 

You tell me.

 

These numbers support my position.

 

 

And why did you skip my point about Vaz playing over the better-hitting Plawecki?

[moonslav59]

Sure. Just like it's pretty clear why Vaz got most of the innings in spite of Plawecki having better numbers with the stick.

 

I never claimed managers and GM all follow my beliefs.

 

Plawecki caught Eovaldi, who had a very clear differential in CERA.

 

The other pitchers not so much.

 

Also, I am not a big Plawecki fan. I've never said he was great or even good at "handling the staff." My point has always been about Vaz not matching his back-up numbers with most starters and some having massive differentials.

[mvp 78]

If you like Little Caesar's more than Domino's, then I am much further away from m goal than I thought. That's akin to preferring arsenic over strychnine. Almost literally...

 

It's the Recency Effect of having Domino's a few weeks ago and not remembering what a Caesar's pizza tastes like since I'm not sure I've had it in 25 years.

[mvp 78]

How 'bout that, moon?

 

Of course it's all Deeply Flawed CERA all the time with moon.

 

CERAsly.

[Bellhorn04]

I never claimed managers and GM all follow my beliefs.

 

Right, because they have more information than you. Better information.

[notin]

It's the Recency Effect of having Domino's a few weeks ago and not remembering what a Caesar's pizza tastes like since I'm not sure I've had it in 25 years.

 

Next time you get Domino's, once you're done, eat the box. THAT is like eating Little Caesar's...

[moonslav59]

And why did you skip my point about Vaz playing over the better-hitting Plawecki?

 

I just read it.

 

I just responded.

 

(BTW, I think Vaz is a better hitter than Plawecki, but not this year.)

[moonslav59]

Right, because they have more information than you. Better information.

 

Like with Maldanado, right?

[Bellhorn04]

Like with Maldanado, right?

 

Yes, and like with Vazquez.

 

Case closed?

[notin]

And why did you skip my point about Vaz playing over the better-hitting Plawecki?

 

They should have played Plawecki to add more team speed...

[mvp 78]

Next time you get Domino's, once you're done, eat the box. THAT is like eating Little Caesar's...

 

Is Papa John's put ahead of Domino's?

[mvp 78]

Like with Maldanado, right?

 

Dusty Baker definitely has different information than we do.

[moonslav59]

Yes, and like with Vazquez.

 

Case closed?

 

They must like Vaz's "other numbers" enough to outweigh the numbers I provided.

 

I never claimed all GMs were onboard with my beliefs or that I am sure I am right.

 

I give my opinion, and I provide facts to support it.

 

I do think Bloom/Cora started Plawecki with Eovaldi, in part because his numbers blow away others.

 

I think they like Vaz's bat more, his framing and blocking more, and that's enough for them to choose Vaz. I trust they know how to quantify values better than i do, but the fact that vaz starts more does not mean they don't think other catchers are better at getting better numbers from the staff. It just means they don't think it's by enough to make a change, or as harmony might say, or not.

 

I think it is obvious many managers think some pitchers do better with a single catcher than the other. Do you dispute this?

 

They don't platoon catchers by batting splits or every 4 or 5 day plans. They almost all pick a pitcher to match with their back-up, because, IMO, they believe in "comfort factors."

[moonslav59]

Dusty Baker definitely has different information than we do.

 

And of course, none of that info could possibly have to do with the chance pitchers just do way better with Maldanado, despite his obvious defensive weaknesses shown by stats, right?.

[mvp 78]

And of course, none of that info could possibly have to do with the chance pitchers just do way better with Maldanado, despite his obvious defensive weaknesses shown by stats, right?.

 

What about the chance that the young pitchers do worse with him, hmm?

[notin]

Is Papa John's put ahead of Domino's?

 

No. It's lower than Little Caesar's. Just behind raw sewage...

[moonslav59]

What about the chance that the young pitchers do worse with him, hmm?

 

That very well may be true. We don't have access to all the information managers have. I never claim to know why they start one catcher over another. (There may very well be some pitchers that will or already have done better with Castro or others.)

 

You, on the other hand, totally shut off any chance that how a catcher handles a pitcher or staff has anything to do with the choices made.

 

You act like anything related to CERA has zero value.

 

You act like I am claiming I know more or that managers use this type of information. I have repeatedly said I don't know, but you seem to act like you know they do not.

 

Correct me, if I am wrong in this observation on this debate.

[notin]

That very well may be true. We don't have access to all the information managers have. I never claim to know why they start one catcher over another. (There may very well be some pitchers that will or already have done better with Castro or others.)

 

You, on the other hand, totally shut off any chance that how a catcher handles a pitcher or staff has anything to do with the choices made.

 

You act like anything related to CERA has zero value.

 

You act like I am claiming I know more or that managers use this type of information. I have repeatedly said I don't know, but you seem to act like you know they do not.

 

Correct me, if I am wrong in this observation on this debate.

 

Well, CERA does carry little value unless the same pitchers are facing the same lineups with the two different catchers. I get just about every baseball stat carries similar inconsistency flaws, but with CERA they get magnified because pitchers make so few starts that fit the criteria...

[moonslav59]

Maldanado has a playoff OPS of .244. That's his OPS and NOT his BA.

 

I'm not sure another Astros catcher even has played one inning.

 

Since catchers need more breaks than other positions, over the season the Astros had these numbers from their catchers:

 

.573 Maldanado (426 PAs) 1011 innings

.799 Castro (179 PAs) 355 innings

.458 Stubbs (38 PAs) 79 innings

 

If Maldanado has such horrific defensive stats and hit .573, why else could he be chosen to start every playoff game?

 

I'll save MVP the trouble in looking up the useless team CERA numbers:

3.72 Maldanado

3.89 Castro

 

It's about pitcher by pitcher- something MVP can't seem to grasp.

 

Castro did seem to do well with the younger pitchers. and Maldando with older ones, all year, but it does seem strange he is the 100% catcher, now, despite sucking on D, according to traditional defensive numbers.

 

[moonslav59]

Well, CERA does carry little value unless the same pitchers are facing the same lineups with the two different catchers. I get just about every baseball stat carries similar inconsistency flaws, but with CERA they get magnified because pitchers make so few starts that fit the criteria...

 

I know all about the unbalanced sample sizes and other factors, but that does not mean many pitchers do about the same, no matter who is catching.

 

I've never claimed to know the reason why, but some pitchers- mostly starters- do way better with one catcher over another, year-after-year, with very little variance. It could just be a psychological comfort factor, but even that does not make it any less real. It may or may not have to do much with pitch calling, but when years and years of sample sizes all point to the same thing, I tend to think there is something driving the numbers.

 

Just because that something is hard to quantify, does not make it valueless.

[notin]

I know all about the unbalanced sample sizes and other factors, but that does not mean many pitchers do about the same, no matter who is catching.

 

I've never claimed to know the reason why, but some pitchers- mostly starters- do way better with one catcher over another, year-after-year, with very little variance. It could just be a psychological comfort factor, but even that does not make it any less real. It may or may not have to do much with pitch calling, but when years and years of sample sizes all point to the same thing, I tend to think there is something driving the numbers.

 

Just because that something is hard to quantify, does not make it valueless.

 

I think a lot of it might be comfort factor.

 

Hey, if you know the guy back there can catch your nastiest slider, you thorw your nastiest slider. If you find yourself watching him chase it to the backstop a couple times, maybe you dial it back a bit.

 

Also there is the possibilty that it is all prep work. Maybe Catcher A sticks to the game plan better for certain hitters. If the guy at the plate struggles up and in, maybe he executes a better plan to set up an up and in out pitcher better than catcher B.

 

Those are my theories, and probably not ones I explained very well. It might be easier to give examples of the first, but I can't think of any. For the second, straight up conjecture on my part...

[Bellhorn04]

I'm going to trot these numbers out again:

 

2021 catcher splits

 

Houck

Vazquez 38.1 IP 2.11 ERA .536 OPS

Plawecki 30.2 IP 5.28 ERA .693 OPS

 

Whitlock

Vazquez 63.2 IP 1.55 ERA .583 OPS

Plawecki 9.2 IP 4.66 ERA .909 OPS

 

Small samples, of course, but you have to consider the possibility that Vaz did amazingly well with these two, who may be the most valuable pitchers on the staff considering their ages and years of control.

 

I would be hesitant to move Vaz and his not exorbitant $7 million salary based on those numbers alone.

[notin]

Maldanado has a playoff OPS of .244. That's his OPS and NOT his BA.

 

I'm not sure another Astros catcher even has played one inning.

 

Since catchers need more breaks than other positions, over the season the Astros had these numbers from their catchers:

 

.573 Maldanado (426 PAs) 1011 innings

.799 Castro (179 PAs) 355 innings

.458 Stubbs (38 PAs) 79 innings

 

If Maldanado has such horrific defensive stats and hit .573, why else could he be chosen to start every playoff game?

 

I'll save MVP the trouble in looking up the useless team CERA numbers:

3.72 Maldanado

3.89 Castro

 

It's about pitcher by pitcher- something MVP can't seem to grasp.

 

Castro did seem to do well with the younger pitchers. and Maldando with older ones, all year, but it does seem strange he is the 100% catcher, now, despite sucking on D, according to traditional defensive numbers.

 

 

Over a brief stretch a couple weeks along, anythng could be a factor. Maybe Castro had the sniffles or a tummyache, while Maldonado was perfectly healthy? Maybe Castro missed too many meetings? Maybe Maldonado worked out better game plans. Maybe Castro couldn't focus because his niece wasn't feeling well or his grandfather was sick.

 

It could be something completely unrelated to baseball...

[moonslav59]

Over a brief stretch a couple weeks along, anythng could be a factor. Maybe Castro had the sniffles or a tummyache, while Maldonado was perfectly healthy? Maybe Castro missed too many meetings? Maybe Maldonado worked out better game plans. Maybe Castro couldn't focus because his niece wasn't feeling well or his grandfather was sick.

 

It could be something completely unrelated to baseball...

 

I've accepted that.

 

Does anyone know for certain that it has nothing to do with anything related to CERA?

 

MVP seems to know, for sure. How about you?

[notin]

I'm going to trot these numbers out again:

 

2021 catcher splits

 

Houck

Vazquez 38.1 IP 2.11 ERA .536 OPS

Plawecki 30.2 IP 5.28 ERA .693 OPS

 

Whitlock

Vazquez 63.2 IP 1.55 ERA .583 OPS

Plawecki 9.2 IP 4.66 ERA .909 OPS

 

Small samples, of course, but you have to consider the possibility that Vaz did amazingly well with these two, who may be the most valuable pitchers on the staff considering their ages and years of control.

 

I would be hesitant to move Vaz and his not exorbitant $7 million salary based on those numbers alone.

 

If Vazquez is not back next year, it will be 100% related to his option just not fitting the budget. But if I had to put money down on the situation, I'd be betting on his return...

[Bellhorn04]

Castro did seem to do well with the younger pitchers. and Maldando with older ones, all year, but it does seem strange he is the 100% catcher, now, despite sucking on D, according to traditional defensive numbers.

 

 

No one is saying it's strange.

 

In the postseason managers go with the guy they have the most confidence in.

 

In the final games of the 2013 postseason, Farrell went exclusively with Ross.

In the final games of the 2018 postseason, Cora went exclusively with Vaz.

[notin]

I've accepted that.

 

Does anyone know for certain that it has nothing to do with anything related to CERA?

 

MVP seems to know, for sure. How about you?

 

I just said I'm not sure it was not related to his grandfather's health!!! And I don't even know if he has any living grandparents!!

[moonslav59]

I'm going to trot these numbers out again:

 

2021 catcher splits

 

Houck

Vazquez 38.1 IP 2.11 ERA .536 OPS

Plawecki 30.2 IP 5.28 ERA .693 OPS

 

Whitlock

Vazquez 63.2 IP 1.55 ERA .583 OPS

Plawecki 9.2 IP 4.66 ERA .909 OPS

 

Small samples, of course, but you have to consider the possibility that Vaz did amazingly well with these two, who may be the most valuable pitchers on the staff considering their ages and years of control.

 

I would be hesitant to move Vaz and his not exorbitant $7 million salary based on those numbers alone.

 

So, you do value these numbers?

 

WOW! I'm not alone, even though I do NOT value 9.2 IP sample sizes.

[mvp 78]

No. It's lower than Little Caesar's. Just behind raw sewage...

 

I think the worst chain pizza I've ever had was Cici's.

 

I think I'd rate Domino's and Papa John's ahead of Pizza Hut.

[Bellhorn04]

So, you do value these numbers?

 

WOW! I'm not alone, even though I do NOT value 9.2 IP sample sizes.

 

Do I value them? I find them very interesting. And I'm not so much looking at the differences between Vaz and Plaw as I am looking at how crazy good the numbers were with Vaz.

 

I'm certainly not denying the premise that some pitchers do better with some catchers. Obviously managers pay attention to it.