A Realistic View at 2022: Part I

[mvp 78]

My point was that this has already been a near total rebuild. There is still a ways to go to get back to top dog.

 

It hasn't though. They retained Xander, JD, Devers, Sale, Eovaldi, ERod, Barnes, Vazquez.

[moonslav59]

I would actually say no to that question.

 

That approach of being close to the limit started in the Theo Epstein glory years.

 

And I think it has a lot to do with our 4 championships.

 

Nick, I do enjoy and respect your opinions here, but to me it sounds a little like you've got 'Rays on the brain', as in, why can't we be the Rays?

 

First of all, I wholeheartedly agree that the Rays are doing a phenomenal job with their payroll limitations.

 

But I don't see how you can dismiss the fact that we're the ones with the most rings this century, and they still don't have one.

 

I think the Rays would probably have a ring by now had they just had $20-40M more to spend, but who knows?

 

I'm not sure it really matters, except to the Rays.

 

It seems we will always be near the tax line and go over it when we feel a push will get us a ring. 2013 was the only season we did not make a mega push the prior winter. Yes, we spent a lot, but that was mostly the money we had saved by trading away so much contract money the prior year.

 

I think we will pounce again. I'm not sure if Henry and Bloom think this is the winter to do it. They might be looking at 2022-2023, but with JD and Bogey free to leave after 2022, maybe they think there is a one year window to go big, but still look good after the Bogey/JD choices or replacements are made.

 

It will be very interesting to see who Bloom's first large and long contract will go to.

[mvp 78]

Very true.

 

Ironically, perhaps, it's the Marlins who have the 2 championships.

 

Marlins went all in on their first championship and spent heavily.

 

For the second time around, it was a lot of young talent that just threaded the needle that year. After 03 they won 83, 83, 78, 71 with most of the same players.

[mvp 78]

The Marlins have won 88+ games twice and have won the WS both years.

[mvp 78]

The Rays have won 88+ games 8 times with 2 WS losses and 4 ALDS losses.

[moonslav59]

The Rays have won 88+ games 8 times with 2 WS losses and 4 ALDS losses.

 

Beats the Yanks over that time period.

[Bellhorn04]

It hasn't though. They retained Xander, JD, Devers, Sale, Eovaldi, ERod, Barnes, Vazquez.

 

Please don't bring up Vazquez again LOL

[mvp 78]

Beats the Yanks over that time period.

 

Nope. Yanks won a WS.

[mvp 78]

Please don't bring up Vazquez again LOL

 

Persona non grata.

[mvp 78]

J.D. Martinez’s top priority is on getting the Red Sox into the playoffs, though once this season’s business is complete, Martinez will have to decide whether or not to return to the Sox for 2022. The slugger tells WEEI.com’s Rob Bradford that he is “right in the middle” about whether he will opt out of the final season (and $19.375MM) on his contract, or if he’ll come back for a fifth year in Boston.

 

Well, that clears everything up!

[moonslav59]

Nope. Yanks won a WS.

 

I didn't realize you were going back beyond 2009

 

From 2010 on the Rays have out performed the Yanks.

[mvp 78]

I didn't realize you were going back beyond 2009

 

From 2010 on the Rays have out performed the Yanks.

 

I said from when the Rays were born. We also discussed the Marlins winning two WS. Neither of those Marlins wins were since 2010.

 

Since 2010, the Yankees have made the ALCS 4 times, the Rays only once. Yankees have been to the playoffs 7 times and lost the WC play in game once. The Rays have played in 5 playoffs and made one WS, but didn't win. Yankees had 4 playoff series wins and the Rays only two.

 

I think you can make the case the Yankees have outperformed the Rays since 2010.

[moonslav59]

I said from when the Rays were born. We also discussed the Marlins winning two WS. Neither of those Marlins wins were since 2010.

 

Since 2010, the Yankees have made the ALCS 4 times, the Rays only once. Yankees have been to the playoffs 7 times and lost the WC play in game once. The Rays have played in 5 playoffs and made one WS, but didn't win. Yankees had 4 playoff series wins and the Rays only two.

 

I think you can make the case the Yankees have outperformed the Rays since 2010.

 

I stand corrected.

 

I guess I am guilty of the "recency effect" like many others I criticize for doing.

[mvp 78]

I stand corrected.

 

I guess I am guilty of the "recency effect" like many others I criticize for doing.

 

If the Rays won their WS, I'd give them the edge 100%. I think it's a fair question as to which organization has been better in that time frame.

[Bellhorn04]

If the Rays won their WS, I'd give them the edge 100%. I think it's a fair question as to which organization has been better in that time frame.

 

In terms of who is getting the most wins out of their payroll, the Rays are beating the (use favorite expletive) out of everyone.

[moonslav59]

In terms of who is getting the most wins out of their payroll, the Rays are beating the (use favorite expletive) out of everyone.

 

Who is second? The A's?

[Bellhorn04]

Who is second? The A's?

 

No doubt.

[moonslav59]

No doubt.

 

Third might get some debate.

 

KC, Miami, Seattle, Cleveland, Cincy- sometimes, these teams spent a lot.

Edited September 28, 2021 by moonslav59

[harmony]

Who is second? The A's?

The Seattle Mariners have 87 wins with a 2021 payroll of $81.8 million while the Oakland Athletics have 85 wins with a 2021 payroll of $89.2 million:

 

https://www.spotrac.com/mlb/payroll/

 

FWIW the Mariners are 13-4 against the A's this year after Monday's 13-4 thrashing.

Edited September 28, 2021 by harmony

[mvp 78]

In terms of who is getting the most wins out of their payroll, the Rays are beating the (use favorite expletive) out of everyone.

 

Ok, but I don't root for the owner's checkbook.

[mvp 78]

The Seattle Mariners have 87 wins with a 2021 payroll of $81.8 million while the Oakland Athletics have 85 wins with a 2021 payroll of $89.2 million:

 

https://www.spotrac.com/mlb/payroll/

 

FWIW the Mariners are 13-4 against the A's this year after Monday's 13-4 thrashing.

 

A's 3 WC losses, 3 ALDS losses since 2010.

 

Mariners have zip, zero, zilch.

 

Similar payrolls. Unsimilar results.

[moonslav59]

A's 3 WC losses, 3 ALDS losses since 2010.

 

Mariners have zip, zero, zilch.

 

Similar payrolls. Unsimilar results.

 

Yes, we are talking the last 10-12 years, not just this year.

[harmony]

A's 3 WC losses, 3 ALDS losses since 2010.

 

Mariners have zip, zero, zilch.

 

Similar payrolls. Unsimilar results.

Indeed the franchises may be headed in opposite directions.

 

Or not.

[moonslav59]

Indeed the franchises may be headed in opposite directions.

 

Or not.

 

You guys are hanging in there, this year. That win last night was big and forceful.

[harmony]

You guys are hanging in there, this year. That win last night was big and forceful.

Deja vu.

 

The 2018 Seattle Mariners posted an 89-73 record with a negative 34 run differential. The 2021 Mariners are 87-70 with a negative 52 run differential.

 

Despite the 89 wins, following the 2018 season Seattle management decided to "step back" by trading Edwin Diaz, Robinson Cano, James Paxton, Jean Segura, Mike Zunino and Alex Colome. The reported reasoning was that the Houston Astros and Oakland Athletics appeared too formidable to overtake in 2019 or 2020.

 

Fast forward to today and the Athletics seem vulnerable with an arbitration class that the A's probably can't afford. The Astros are no longer the club that finished 14 games ahead of the Mariners in 2018.

 

Historically the Mariners have not had the fiscal constraints of the Athletics. Like the 2011-13 Astros, who were criticized for low budgets while losing 324 games, the Mariners have been saving their money for the appropriate time to spend.

 

This offseason may be the time for the Mariners to spend on the free agent market to complement the developing core.

Edited September 28, 2021 by harmony

[notin]

The Marlins have won 88+ games twice and have won the WS both years.

 

… and last year marked the first time they lost a postseason series…

[dgalehouse]

Billy Beane is a genius . A baseball savant. A money ball wizard. He has a whole den full of participation trophies to prove it.

[Bellhorn04]

Billy Beane is a genius . A baseball savant. A money ball wizard. He has a whole den full of participation trophies to prove it.

 

If he had as much money to work with as the Sox do, that might be a whole other story.

[dgalehouse]

If he had as much money to work with as the Sox do, that might be a whole other story.

Looks like he enjoys his little comfort zone where expectations are not too high.

[moonslav59]

Looks like he enjoys his little comfort zone where expectations are not too high.

 

Hard to know, if that is why he enjoys his niche.

 

I know one reason he stayed was for family.