A Realistic View at 2022: Part I

[mvp 78]

I'm not sure how much LF in Fenway affects UZR/150 since Beni still only has a 1.6 fWAR in KC this year. I'm sure there's a marginal affect, but it's not over the top. Playing Manny or Millar in RF at Fenway is just tempting the gods.

[moonslav59]

I'm not sure how much LF in Fenway affects UZR/150 since Beni still only has a 1.6 fWAR in KC this year. I'm sure there's a marginal affect, but it's not over the top. Playing Manny or Millar in RF at Fenway is just tempting the gods.

 

Their innings in RF were likely on the road- in short RF stadiums.

[mvp 78]

Their innings in RF were likely on the road- in short RF stadiums.

 

For some god forsaken reason, Grady Little started Manny Ramirez in RF in Fenway 3 times in August of 2002.

[mvp 78]

https://www.fangraphs.com/boxscore.aspx?date=2002-08-23&team=Red%20Sox&dh=0

 

In a Pedro Martinez game against the eventual WS champs LA Angels, Grady Little rolled out with a lineup of:

Rickey Henderson's Corpse LF

Nomar SS

Manny RF

Cliff Floyd DH

Hillenbrand 3B

Daubach 1B

Tek C

Trot Nixon CF

Rey Sanchez 2B

 

I'm pretty sure I have that season blacked out from my memory. That was the Tony Clark year.

[Bellhorn04]

That 2002 team had a run differential of +194. A prelude to greatness, I guess.

[mvp 78]

That 2002 team had a run differential of +194. A prelude to greatness, I guess.

 

Would have been much higher if they didn't have Tony Clark on the roster.

[Bellhorn04]

Would have been much higher if they didn't have Tony Clark on the roster.

 

When I think of Tony Clark, I think of one particular at-bat.

[moonslav59]

When I think of Tony Clark, I think of one particular at-bat.

 

When I think of Tony Clark, I think back to the days I believed players could be skilled at clutch hitting. I was happy we got him.

 

Career Late & Close .834 (.799 high leverage)

With the Sox: .399 (.739)

 

It's like we were the reverse of what TB is today.

The guy hit .857 with DET.

Came to us at the ripe age of 30 and hit .556.

He hit .861 the following 3 years after leaving Boston.

[Bellhorn04]

When I think of Tony Clark, I think back to the days I believed players could be skilled at clutch hitting. I was happy we got him.

 

Career Late & Close .834 (.799 high leverage)

With the Sox: .399 (.739)

 

It's like we were the reverse of what TB is today.

The guy hit .857 with DET.

Came to us at the ripe age of 30 and hit .556.

He hit .861 the following 3 years after leaving Boston.

 

Do you know the at-bat I'm thinking of?

[moonslav59]

Do you know the at-bat I'm thinking of?

 

nope

[Bellhorn04]

nope

 

I'm a little disappointed.

 

Last at-bat of this game.

 

https://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/NYA/NYA200410190.shtml

[moonslav59]

I'm a little disappointed.

 

Last at-bat of this game.

 

https://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/NYA/NYA200410190.shtml

 

I did not remember it was him.

[Bellhorn04]

I did not remember it was him.

 

Theo Epstein later said it was the most nervous he was that whole postseason. Foulke was absolutely on fumes, and the short porch was beckoning.

 

Frankly I couldn't even watch that inning live, just kept nervously checking.

[moonslav59]

Theo Epstein later said it was the most nervous he was that whole postseason. Foulke was absolutely on fumes, and the short porch was beckoning.

 

Frankly I couldn't even watch that inning live, just kept nervously checking.

 

I remember the play- just forgot who the batter was.

[moonslav59]

So, best case scenario?

 

We sign Gausman, Freeman, Simmons and Raisel Iglesias.

 

We trade Bogey, Dalbec and Downs for another ace, and we're off to the stars.

[oldtimer]

So, best case scenario?

 

We sign Gausman, Freeman, Simmons and Raisel Iglesias.

 

We trade Bogey, Dalbec and Downs for another ace, and we're off to the stars.

 

It has come down to 2022 or bust, hasn't it?

[moonslav59]

Here is how I see next year’s players and their roles on an improving team. I’ll start with our catchers.

 

C

 

You all know how I feel about how he handles the staff. You can believe what you want, but the facts are clear: almost every pitcher with significant IP with more than one catcher does or did better with almost every catcher not named Vazquez, except Swihart, where sample sizes were mostly small and clumped. He frames the pitches well, blocks wild pitches well enough, and has had a decent CS% most seasons. His bat has been a rollercoaster ride like maybe no other Sox hitter I’ve known. He has shown long flashes of being one of the game’s best hitting catcher to being okay to putrid. I don’t hold the start of anyone’s career against them, and Vaz got hurt and missed his second season. You can say I’m cherry-picking sample sizes, but here it is:

 

.602 2014-2016 (385 PAs)

.735 2017 (345 PAs)

.540 2018 (269)

.798 2019-2020 (655)

.647 2021 (423)

 

One could argue he’s due for an up offensive year, but I think the catching slot on the 2022 team needs a change. That doesn’t mean I want to trade Vaz for crap. I don’t hate the guy or think he’s worthless. I’m not sure if any GMs see what I do in his pitcher-handling numbers, but my guess is some GM values him highly- just as some smart posters here, do. Catchers are very hard to find, and although he has just one year left or team control at a moderate price of $7M (option wit $250K buy out).

I have no idea how to replace him. Like I said, good catchers are few and far between, but great defensive catchers usually cost way less- guys like Sandy Leon.

I actually like Plawecki as a back-up and would offer him his final arb year. The farm has a couple somewhat promising catchers, but it’s hard to know with catchers: Connor Wong and Ronald Hernandez.

 

All-in-all, I think we need a redo at catcher. We can absorb a weak bat, but we need someone who can get the best out of our staff, build confidence in our young pitchers and handle himself very well behind the plate.

 

1B

 

I won’t discuss current Sox players who will be or will likely be free agents, except to say the if we keep Schwarber, he may be used at 1B and the shorter corner OF slot, plus DH when JD sits or if JD takes the opt out.

I want to talk about Dalbec. Most of you know, I have always been higher than most on him, although there was a brief moment, this year, where I thought he should be demoted to work on his swing, and his swing is the big issue. The guy K’s a lot. I mean A LOT! We all knew this coming into the season. We were encouraged by his brief 2020 production, but I don’t think anyone expected him to have a year close to those numbers (.959 OPS). I know minor league OBP’s don’t always translate well to the majors, especially for high K players, but I had hopes his .362 OBP on the farm could translate to .320 or .333. Sadly, it has not (.307), and he really needs to improve on that or hit 45 jacks to hold his own against other 1Bmen in MLB. He will not gain any points on defense. In fact, he lost a lot, this year, so Bobby Dee has to improve to keep the position an even or plus slot for the Sox. His recent hot streak is encouraging, but we’ve seen it before. He needs to show better consistency and patience at the plate. He needs to improve his defense of go play DH for an NL club. The other big plus to Bobby Dee is his low contract cost on a team looking to avoid paying high taxes. The other choice at 1B is moving Devers from 3B. We’ve all talked about this numerous times, then he seems to start playing plus D for a lengthy time, only to lapse into wild throwing stretches. Half his errors are throwing, so in a simple world, it makes sense to move him to 1B. In fact, it’s more complicated than that. Personally, I think nothing bothers Devers, so he would mold quickly into a plus defensive 1Bman in a short time-maybe even over a winter and ST’ing- hint, hint. If we move Devers, we’ll need a 3Bman, and that will likely cost more than Dalbec-financially or by trade.

 

Either way, I doubt we go outside the organization to improve 1B, although a big choice does need to be made. (Maybe Bloom & Co. aren’t even thinking of moving Devers and never will.) Our 1Bman will be Dalbec.

 

2B

 

I really like Arroyo a lot. On the surface, it looks like he is injury prone, but when you look at what he has missed time for, I’m not so sure. I do think we need a strong utility back-up for the middle IF positions, so we don’t have to use Kike at 2B as much as we did, this year (see CF). I’m not counting on Munoz, Arauz or Downs as competent MLB utility players, but there is a chance one or two could rise to fill the role nicely in 2022. I just would not bet on it. I hope we can do better than Marwin.

 

2B is an easy position to call for 2022: Arroyo full time.

 

SS

 

Here is the key position, in my opinion. Many would and will call me nuts for even suggesting we move Bogey to 3B or trade him before his opt out winter of 2023. I am very biased. I know that. I think great SS D, no I mean fantastic SS D is a major priority to winning baseball. Yes, you can win without it, and boy did we win in 2018. I’m not saying SS D is essential, but with Bogey likely opting out after 2022 or extending at a high cost, I think we have to look at some option. We have Arauz and Downs as back-ups, so if he moves or is traded we need to acquire an outstanding defensive SS. I’m partial to Simmons, but I guess we could go cheap and sign Iggy to a shorter term deal to give us a chance to look at Downs and Mayer a bit more closely, although Mayer is a long way away. Please, don’t take these statements to mean I think Bogey sucks or is a net negative value. He is far from it. Plus, fans love him. Trading him is complicated. Moving him to 3B pretty much insures he opts out and bolts.

 

Our choice at SS is already made: it’s Bogey. I’d like to see a change.

 

3B

 

I want us to lock Devers up for the rest of his career, if that’s what it takes to get him to sign a long term deal. You’ve heard me say, “Devers forevers,” and I mean it. I’m not sure I want him at 3B. For 2/3 of a season, he looks fine or better than fine. The other 1/3, I’m convinced a move is needed. Someone pointed out his fielding slumps match up with his batting slumps, so maybe he’s getting distracted somehow, but this kid is a keeper. One reason I love Devers is that nothing seems to bother him. He reminds me of Manny, in that way. Child like. His hitting approach differs from almost everyone else, and to me that is a huge plus. When the rest of the team is struggling vs a pitcher who is on his game, Devers will hit a pitch 6 inches out of the K zone for a 3-run job and the win. He seems to rise to the occasion, but I don’t want to be accused of saying I believe clutch is a skill. (If it is, he has it.) Dalbec at 3B is not an option, except as a back-up. If we move Devers to 1B, we’ll need a 3Bman (Bogey?).

 

Devers will be our starting 3Bman in 2022. If he’s not, I’ll think more highly of Bloom and Cora than I already do. (See moving Bogey, too.)

 

LF

 

Schwarber in LF in Fenway seems like a natural fit. If he can play some 1B (maybe to spell Dalbec vs tough righties), he could be a great fit for this team, even if JD returns. Since this is about 2022, I won’t get into him being our DH after JD bolts. Verdugo or Renfroe are fine LF’ers, too. It looks like LF might also be Duran’s best defensive OF position, and I see him as our 4th OF’er playing almost LF only. Not knowing about Schwarber. I see this:

 

Verdugo is our FT LF’er in 2022 with Duran playing LF anytime an starting OF is not in the line-up.

 

CF

 

From the moment we signed Kike, I wanted him as our FT CF’er. “He was signed to play 2B,” I was told, but I think we all know by now, this team is much better defensively and offensively with Kike in CF and Arroyo at 2B. I’m not usually one to shut off any debate, but on this, I think we should be in universal agreement.

 

Kike is our FT CF’er for 2022. When he sits or is needed at 2B, Verdugo or Renfroe should play CF, at least until Duran proves he can be a plus defender out there.

 

RF

 

Renfroe has been one of the most pleasant surprises for the Sox in 2021. He has a fantastic arm for Fenway’s expansive RF, but his UZR/150 points to him being a not-so-good defensive OF’er. When the season started, I thought Verdugo would play RF and Renfroe would platoon with Cordero in LF. Renfroe started out very slowly, and there were many posters calling for a demotion, platoon or worse, but man-o-man, he sure picked things up. He’s hit .879 since May 1st (24 HRs, 24 2Bs and 69 RBI in 97 games). I gotta think he’s the FT RF’er, next year.

 

Renfroe is the FT RF’er for the Sox in 2022.

DH

 

Opt out or not. Most think JD will not opt out, but I’m not so certain. I could see him extending with us- Schwarber or not- or opting out and taking a bigger guaranteed contract over a one year higher paying deal he has with us. If I had to bet…

 

JD is our FT DH in 2022. (If not, I hope it’s Schwarber.)

 

I’ll go over the more complicated pitching staff, when I have some more time.

[mvp 78]

Awful long way of just saying "trade Xander."

[Bellhorn04]

Awful long way of just saying "trade Xander."

 

I read it more as "trade Vazquez and Xander".

[moonslav59]

Awful long way of just saying "trade Xander."

 

Or move him to 3B and Devers to 1B.

[moonslav59]

I read it more as "trade Vazquez and Xander".

 

...a better interpretation, but not the full story.

 

Feel free to add your own suggestions.

[mvp 78]

...a better interpretation, but not the full story.

 

Feel free to add your own suggestions.

 

I thought they were shopping Vaz last offseason and got no takers? I think they just need to work on finding a suitable long term replacement. Have Vaz not catch 80% of the games. Maybe if he goes down to 50%, his defense will be less sloppy?

[Nick]

For most part, Bloom is waiting on younger kids to develop and replace veterans.

 

C. Vaz to be replaced by Hernandez or Wong?

1B Dalbec to platoon with Casas?

2B See if Downs can become better than Arroyo?

SS Wait and see if Xander opts out?

3B Extend Devers?

LF Verdugo

CF Waiting on Duran to takeover, Kike has one more year on his contract

RF Renfroe

DH If JD opts out, sign Schwarber? Sign Schwarber anyway?

 

Not really complicated....Bloom will live with what we have and let the players/agents make the move first

 

Waiting on wings, Jimenez (OF), Mayer (SS), Yorke (2B), Blaze Jordan (3B), etc, etc.

 

Rebuilding our pitching staff is our priority for 2022.

Edited September 1, 2021 by Nick

[Bellhorn04]

To me the big question now about 2022 and beyond has more to do with if we'll ever catch up to the Rays again...

[Nick]

To me the big question now about 2022 and beyond has more to do with if we'll ever catch up to the Rays again...

 

That my friend more than anything else adds tremendous internal pressure on Bloom.

[Bellhorn04]

That my friend more than anything else adds tremendous internal pressure on Bloom.

 

Yeah, it used to be the Yankees creating that pressure. Now it's the amazing Rays...

[moonslav59]

For most part, Bloom is waiting on younger kids to develop and replace veterans.

 

C. Vaz to be replaced by Hernandez or Wong?

1B Dalbec to platoon with Casas?

2B See if Downs can become better than Arroyo?

SS Wait and see if Xander opts out?

3B Extend Devers?

LF Verdugo

CF Waiting on Duran to takeover, Kike has one more year on his contract

RF Renfroe

DH If JD opts out, sign Schwarber?

 

Not really complicated....Bloom will live with what we have and let the players/agents make the move first

 

Waiting on wings, Jimenez (OF), Mayer (SS), Yorke (2B), Blaze Jordan (3B), etc, etc.

 

I still think rebuilding our pitching staff is our priority for 2022.

 

The pitching is way more complicated, for sure. How many returning pitchers have few question marks?

 

Even Sale & Eovaldi have their share.

[Nick]

The pitching is way more complicated, for sure. How many returning pitchers have few question marks?

 

Even Sale & Eovaldi have their share.

 

Moon, I get headaches thinking about pitching for 2022. Not many 'sure' things.

[Nick]

Even with only two years left before arbitration, I assume Devers has the best trade value.

 

What pitcher is comparable to Devers in a straight up trade?

[moonslav59]

To me the big question now about 2022 and beyond has more to do with if we'll ever catch up to the Rays again...

 

Trying to emulate the hot team usually doesn't work, but if anyone knows the ins and out on how Tampa does it, it's Bloom.

 

It will take time to build a system like theirs, and some insightful posters have pointed out there have not been all that many changes made to key positions in the organization.

 

If we can just approach the Rays with their abilities to spot and develop talent- not just in the farm system, we should able to overtake them by bashing them with key FA signings.

 

How long will it take?

 

Someone told me, recently how "the cliff" was only a 60 game season long, but maybe it's actually longer when looking where we are right at this instant.