A Realistic View at 2022: Part I

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

One area the Sox need to improve is their defense. The problem is, our best hitters seem to be our weakest links on defense.

 

I'm not seeing any easy solutions, and many here want JD and Schwarber back, next year. That's a big drain on the D, as one has to not be the DH.

 

What's the best move to make?

 

None at all?

 

 

The best move is to invest in starting pitching. Fortunes flow from the mound. Good starters keep both bullpens and fielders fresh; neither gets overworked, relievers stay strong and defenders stay on their toes.

 

Look at the Brewers: their top three players in WAR are starting pitchers, and their bullpen is as good as their rotation. Meanwhile, the team OPS is below average, and the offense is three percentage points from having the worst batting average in the NL. And yet, Milwaukee is in first place by 8 1/2 games. The NL Central may not be the AL East, but seriously: does anyone think the Red Sox would hit against the Brew Crew?

 

JD is going nowhere, but I'm all for signing Schwarber over just about any free agent hitter. The Sox may have their share of sluggers, but he just seems to command the strike zone better than most. Making contact or taking a walk to get on base and ignite a rally is rare and underrated for a home run hitter these days.

[moonslav59]

The best move is to invest in starting pitching. Fortunes flow from the mound. Good starters keep both bullpens and fielders fresh; neither gets overworked, relievers stay strong and defenders stay on their toes.

 

Look at the Brewers: their top three players in WAR are starting pitchers, and their bullpen is as good as their rotation. Meanwhile, the team OPS is below average, and the offense is three percentage points from having the worst batting average in the NL. And yet, Milwaukee is in first place by 8 1/2 games. The NL Central may not be the AL East, but seriously: does anyone think the Red Sox would hit against the Brew Crew?

 

JD is going nowhere, but I'm all for signing Schwarber over just about any free agent hitter. The Sox may have their share of sluggers, but he just seems to command the strike zone better than most. Making contact or taking a walk to get on base and ignite a rally is rare and underrated for a home run hitter these days.

 

I'm always for improving the staff, and not by getting a better 4th or 5th starter. Improve from the top, is my motto, but as we have seen this year, good pitching can get lost, when basic plays are not made, and we need to get 4-5 outs some innings due to missed plays. I'm not even talking about the errors, and there were plenty of those. I'm talking about non error plays that other teams make easily. I'm talking about the very few nice plays that other teams seem to make several times a game.

 

Even the best pitchers can't do all that well needing to make 4 outs an inning. Yes, I'm exaggerating, but our defense is pathetic.

 

Our BAbip against blows everyone away. If it wasn't for BAL at .311, we'd be over 20 points higher than the next team! And, before anyone argue that opposing teams are hitting our pitching harder than others, the data shows they are not. We have the 6th best Hard Hits Against percent in the AL and 9th best in MLB. That's upper tier. We have the 12th best GB% in MLB. I have to think we've allowed the most IF hits in the league. It's really quite sickening.

 

I'm all for boosting the staff in a major way, this winter, but ignoring the defense would be a major mistake.

 

I don't have a simple answer. I don't want us to trade Bogey or Dalbec. I don't think trading Vaz will help. Moving Devers to 1B could easily backfire, while squeezing one of our low pay hopes (Dalbec) out of a spot in the line-up. Maybe, because there is no easy solution, nothing will be done. I think signing Marwin was a feeble attempt at improving our defense. I don't think adding a great defensive utility player is the answer for 2022.

 

Any ideas?

[Nick]

I'm always for improving the staff, and not by getting a better 4th or 5th starter. Improve from the top, is my motto, but as we have seen this year, good pitching can get lost, when basic plays are not made, and we need to get 4-5 outs some innings due to missed plays. I'm not even talking about the errors, and there were plenty of those. I'm talking about non error plays that other teams make easily. I'm talking about the very few nice plays that other teams seem to make several times a game.

 

Even the best pitchers can't do all that well needing to make 4 outs an inning. Yes, I'm exaggerating, but our defense is pathetic.

 

Our BAbip against blows everyone away. If it wasn't for BAL at .311, we'd be over 20 points higher than the next team! And, before anyone argue that opposing teams are hitting our pitching harder than others, the data shows they are not. We have the 6th best Hard Hits Against percent in the AL and 9th best in MLB. That's upper tier. We have the 12th best GB% in MLB. I have to think we've allowed the most IF hits in the league. It's really quite sickening.

 

I'm all for boosting the staff in a major way, this winter, but ignoring the defense would be a major mistake.

 

I don't have a simple answer. I don't want us to trade Bogey or Dalbec. I don't think trading Vaz will help. Moving Devers to 1B could easily backfire, while squeezing one of our low pay hopes (Dalbec) out of a spot in the line-up. Maybe, because there is no easy solution, nothing will be done. I think signing Marwin was a feeble attempt at improving our defense. I don't think adding a great defensive utility player is the answer for 2022.

 

Any ideas?

 

If we go all out to sign Schwarber this winter, then we'll have to live with his defense or lack of until JD is gone after 2022. I'm just not sure if JD will opt out.

 

You are correct about Dalbec. We can't give up on him. Getting a reliever for him in a trade is giving up too much. I still think he has an upside. Again, he comes very cheap for at least two more years.

 

I would do nothing with Xander situation. If he opts out, then he opts out. He may need to move to 3B at some point, especially if we lose Devers for whatever reason in two years. (remember Betts)

 

We're just very short handed right now with Renfroe gone, Kike gone and Arroyo gone.

 

C Vaz/BackUp

1B Schwarber/Dalbec

2B Arroyo/Kike

SS Xander

3B Devers/Dalbec

LF Verdugo/Schwarber/JD

CF Kike/Duran

RF Renfroe

DH JD/Schwarber

 

#10=backup catcher #11=Dalbec #12=Duran #13=utility infielder

 

It is what it is.....we can never become stellar defensive team with this group

[Nick]

If I was building a team from scratch, I load up on

 

1. starting pitching

2. bullpen

3. cheap, defensive position players

 

Not the other way around......

[notin]

The best move is to invest in starting pitching. Fortunes flow from the mound. Good starters keep both bullpens and fielders fresh; neither gets overworked, relievers stay strong and defenders stay on their toes.

 

Look at the Brewers: their top three players in WAR are starting pitchers, and their bullpen is as good as their rotation. Meanwhile, the team OPS is below average, and the offense is three percentage points from having the worst batting average in the NL. And yet, Milwaukee is in first place by 8 1/2 games. The NL Central may not be the AL East, but seriously: does anyone think the Red Sox would hit against the Brew Crew?

 

JD is going nowhere, but I'm all for signing Schwarber over just about any free agent hitter. The Sox may have their share of sluggers, but he just seems to command the strike zone better than most. Making contact or taking a walk to get on base and ignite a rally is rare and underrated for a home run hitter these days.

 

But then the Brewers were under .500 and 4 games out until they traded for a major defensive upgrade at SS that could also hit.

 

Corbin Burnes is having a monster season, but he was even more unhittable early on when he was off setting records for not walking people and racking up 10Ks a game in the process. But the Brewers have been a different team since they dealt for Willy Adames...

[moonslav59]

If we go all out to sign Schwarber this winter, then we'll have to live with his defense or lack of until JD is gone after 2022. I'm just not sure if JD will opt out.

 

You are correct about Dalbec. We can't give up on him. Getting a reliever for him in a trade is giving up too much. I still think he has an upside. Again, he comes very cheap for at least two more years.

 

I would do nothing with Xander situation. If he opts out, then he opts out. He may need to move to 3B at some point, especially if we lose Devers for whatever reason in two years. (remember Betts)

 

We're just very short handed right now with Renfroe gone, Kike gone and Arroyo gone.

 

C Vaz/BackUp

1B Schwarber/Dalbec

2B Arroyo/Kike

SS Xander

3B Devers/Dalbec

LF Verdugo/Schwarber/JD

CF Kike/Duran

RF Renfroe

DH JD/Schwarber

 

#10=backup catcher #11=Dalbec #12=Duran #13=utility infielder

 

It is what it is.....we can never become stellar defensive team with this group

 

I'm not asking for stellar. Just one improvement would help.

 

I realize it's not easy, and I have no answer, at this time. (You know, if I have no opinion, it's not an easy issue.)

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

But the Brewers have been a different team since they dealt for Willy Adames...

 

No doubt Adames has made the pitchers better, but it starts with strike throwers.

 

If the Sox really want to spend for a facelift this winter, they'd move Bogie to second base and sign Carlos Correa, who can hit with X and is just a better defensive shortstop (tied for AL in dWAR). It's not going to change the D culture by merely adding defensive replacements like Andrelton Simmons or any of the half dozen leathermen for centerfield we all craved last offseason -- remember? c'mon, Chaim, just sign one guy for a measly $1 mil...

[moonslav59]

But then the Brewers were under .500 and 4 games out until they traded for a major defensive upgrade at SS that could also hit.

 

Corbin Burnes is having a monster season, but he was even more unhittable early on when he was off setting records for not walking people and racking up 10Ks a game in the process. But the Brewers have been a different team since they dealt for Willy Adames...

 

To me, defense starts at SS (maybe catcher.)

 

I don't want to trade Bogey, so maybe moving him to 3B, Devers to 1B and finding a great defensive SS is the answer.

 

I realize that squeezes out low-paid Dalbec and pretty much means Bogey will opt out and never come back.

[notin]

To me, defense starts at SS (maybe catcher.)

 

I don't want to trade Bogey, so maybe moving him to 3B, Devers to 1B and finding a great defensive SS is the answer.

 

I realize that squeezes out low-paid Dalbec and pretty much means Bogey will opt out and never come back.

 

I don’t know if anything has changed, but in the past Bogaerts has not been exactly wild about the prospects of changing position for whatever reason. If that’s the case, moving him off shortstop is basically asking him to exercise his opt out.

 

So then the question becomes - would it make more sense to just deal him? In some ways, yes. There will be a lot of shortstop reshuffling this off-season that should create demand, and Bogaerts will still be the cheapest of the big names, at least financially.

 

But if so, it has to work and work quickly. Bloom can’t deal Betts then Benentendi and then Bogaerts without producing a winning team immediately…

[notin]

No doubt Adames has made the pitchers better, but it starts with strike throwers.

 

If the Sox really want to spend for a facelift this winter, they'd move Bogie to second base and sign Carlos Correa, who can hit with X and is just a better defensive shortstop (tied for AL in dWAR). It's not going to change the D culture by merely adding defensive replacements like Andrelton Simmons or any of the half dozen leathermen for centerfield we all craved last offseason -- remember? c'mon, Chaim, just sign one guy for a measly $1 mil...

 

And yet while Corbin Burnes was establishing himself as one of the best strike throwers in history, the team was only 2-7 in his starts prior to Adames.

 

Obviously Adames isn’t the only reason, but the tendency among baseball fans is to rely heavily on noticeable stats and ignore the aspects of team play. We like big players who fill big roles, like ace starters and closers, but ignore that these players simply cannot make bad teams good on their own…

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

But if so, it has to work and work quickly. Bloom can’t deal Betts then Benentendi and then Bogaerts without producing a winning team immediately…

 

It's true and depressing. Big bucks would be in play -- including signing Devers to a longterm first, to ease the devastation of seeing his best bud leave (and to make sure Rafie stays), and then to sign a more expensive shortstop. But X would have to bring back a top quality starter... right?

[notin]

It's true and depressing. Big bucks would be in play -- including signing Devers to a longterm first, to ease the devastation of seeing his best bud leave (and to make sure Rafie stays), and then to sign a more expensive shortstop. But X would have to bring back a top quality starter... right?

 

If they deal X, they better be bringing in a top quality starter some how.

 

I tend to think they would NOT get one for Bogaerts, as his appeal will largely be to teams hoping to contend and have a hole at SS. Teams hoping to contend rarely trade top quality starters, and the few teams that do things like that rarely take on $20 mill players.

 

So a three-way trade (which is rare) or a separate deal for SP…

[moonslav59]

If they deal X, they better be bringing in a top quality starter some how.

 

I tend to think they would NOT get one for Bogaerts, as his appeal will largely be to teams hoping to contend and have a hole at SS. Teams hoping to contend rarely trade top quality starters, and the few teams that do things like that rarely take on $20 mill players.

 

So a three-way trade (which is rare) or a separate deal for SP…

 

The money saved by trading Bogey might allow us to get a great SP'er via free agency or two very good ones, instead of the one we were probably planning on adding, anyway.

[notin]

The money saved by trading Bogey might allow us to get a great SP'er via free agency or two very good ones, instead of the one we were probably planning on adding, anyway.

 

Not if 5Gold becomes the GM. He’s been all in on Correa since February…

[moonslav59]

I know many disagree, and I can't say teams cannot win with a subpar defensive SS, but to me, it is an essential priority for a team to win consistently.

 

It would instantly make our staff better- all 13 to 14 of them. Yes, one move improves 14-15 slots on the 26 man roster.

[moonslav59]

Not if 5Gold becomes the GM. He’s been all in on Correa since February…

 

While Correa is a GG SS, I'm not sure he's top 3 on D, but he'd be a big gain on defense over Bogey. So, what's they idea? Trade Bogey for a pitcher and sign Correa and a pitcher?

[notin]

It's true and depressing. Big bucks would be in play -- including signing Devers to a longterm first, to ease the devastation of seeing his best bud leave (and to make sure Rafie stays), and then to sign a more expensive shortstop. But X would have to bring back a top quality starter... right?

 

Per BTV, the starting pitchers with the closest trade value to Bogaerts (52.4) are Miami’s Sixto Sanchez (56.1), Miami’s Pablo Lopez (53.8), the Dodgers Julio Urias (51.1) and Tampa’s Shane McClanahan (51.0) and Dylan Cease of the White Sox (50.2).

 

Using my (potentially incorrect) criteria, Lopez is the most likely pitcher to be available. I’m basing this on the Marlins’ depth, needs, and that he is eligible for arbitration. And that the Marlins aren’t very good.

 

So if a third team was involved - say the Angels, who do need a shortstop themselves and seem to like big name players. Maybe a deal sending Bogie to LA and the Angels sending Brandon Marsh to the Marlins and then Lopez to Boston? With the couple low value supplementary pieces here and there?

 

To me, this is not likely. If Marsh (plus?) was enough to pry Lopez out of Miami, the Angels take Lopez over Bogaerts and call it a day…

[notin]

It's true and depressing. Big bucks would be in play -- including signing Devers to a longterm first, to ease the devastation of seeing his best bud leave (and to make sure Rafie stays), and then to sign a more expensive shortstop. But X would have to bring back a top quality starter... right?[/QUote]

 

But hey, maybe I ignored a couple names.

 

Tyler Mahle (49.6) and Max Fried (47.9) are also in range.

 

The Braves have no need at SS, but the Reds do.

 

But would a straight up trade of Bogaerts for Mahle get anyone excited? I mean, besides Reds’ fans?

[Bellhorn04]

Per BTV, the starting pitchers with the closest trade value to Bogaerts (52.4) are Miami’s Sixto Sanchez (56.1), Miami’s Pablo Lopez (53.8), the Dodgers Julio Urias (51.1) and Tampa’s Shane McClanahan (51.0) and Dylan Cease of the White Sox (50.2).

 

I'm guessing that trade value for Bogey does not take his opt-out into account.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

While Correa is a GG SS, I'm not sure he's top 3 on D, but he'd be a big gain on defense over Bogey. So, what's they idea? Trade Bogey for a pitcher and sign Correa and a pitcher?

 

I've just always thought -- if the Sox were entering the superstar shortstop sweepstakes (which I'll believe it when I see) -- that Correa is the most likely target because of the Cora connection.

 

But I'm unconvinced Bloom will be spending big on any one or two studs in '22. We may just see X get dealt for prospects before his opt out, then the same thing with Devers a year later... while Sox Nation waits patiently for the development of Duran, Casas, Mayer and Juan Chacon!

[notin]

I'm guessing that trade value for Bogey does not take his opt-out into account.

 

Not sure how they handled it, but that kind of thing is rarely ignored by them…

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

But hey, maybe I ignored a couple names.

 

Tyler Mahle (49.6) and Max Fried (47.9) are also in range.

 

The Braves have no need at SS, but the Reds do.

 

But would a straight up trade of Bogaerts for Mahle get anyone excited? I mean, besides Reds’ fans?

 

This is good work. I'd demand Lucas Sims, too. He's not having a great year, but at 27 can still be a useful bullpen piece. And we always need those.

 

I'd also take Lopez or Sanchez from Miami -- and I bet Bloom would, too...

[notin]

I've just always thought -- if the Sox were entering the superstar shortstop sweepstakes (which I'll believe it when I see) -- that Correa is the most likely target because of the Cora connection.

 

But I'm unconvinced Bloom will be spending big on any one or two studs in '22. We may just see X get dealt for prospects before his opt out, then the same thing with Devers a year later... while Sox Nation waits patiently for the development of Duran, Casas, Mayer and Juan Chacon!

 

The main reason to not worry about Bloom only knowing how to run small market teams is that patience is a fireable offense in the Sox organization. Bloom certainly knows this. He has to. Even I know it…

[notin]

This is good work. I'd demand Lucas Sims, too. He's not having a great year, but at 27 can still be a useful bullpen piece. And we always need those.

 

I'd also take Lopez or Sanchez from Miami -- and I bet Bloom would, too...

 

Or maybe the Sox deal Bogaerts for Marsh, whose basically a Jarren Duran clone except that he can hit and field, and then flip Duran for pitcher. Unlike Bogaerts, Duran will appeal to some small market teams due to his salary and control…

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Or maybe the Sox deal Bogaerts for Marsh, whose basically a Jarren Duran clone except that he can hit and field, and then flip Duran for pitcher. Unlike Bogaerts, Duran will appeal to some small market teams due to his salary and control…

 

I'm not ready to give up on Duran so soon. He hasn't looked lost in centerfield, and super speed outruns a lot of bad jumps while learning the position. His hitting, though... at least you gotta like his willingness to make adjustments -- getting a hit in the majors with a split grip shows some serious athleticism.

[Bellhorn04]

Not sure how they handled it, but that kind of thing is rarely ignored by them…

 

I checked it out. They didn't ignore it. The only issue is that they are showing 1.5 years of control left - suggesting the values are only updated every half-season.

[notin]

I checked it out. They didn't ignore it. The only issue is that they are showing 1.5 years of control left - suggesting the values are only updated every half-season.

 

Updating is a slow process on that site. Their first year, they were doing it monthly and I messaged the administrator and reminded him to go right to off-season values after August since no more trades were possible during the year anyway.

 

With one season left, figure Bogaerts surplus value to be roughly $28mill . If he is projected for a 6 fWAR season, that’s worth $48mill and take away his $20 mill salary..,

[moonslav59]

Updating is a slow process on that site. Their first year, they were doing it monthly and I messaged the administrator and reminded him to go right to off-season values after August since no more trades were possible during the year anyway.

 

With one season left, figure Bogaerts surplus value to be roughly $28mill . If he is projected for a 6 fWAR season, that’s worth $48mill and take away his $20 mill salary..,

 

That makes him equal to like a Jeter Downs.

[notin]

That makes him equal to like a Jeter Downs.

 

One year of Bogaerts might be worth 6 years of Jeter Downs…

[moonslav59]

One year of Bogaerts might be worth 6 years of Jeter Downs…

 

I don't disagree.

 

Just finding a comp, Sox fans would know about.