A Realistic View at 2022: Part I

[moonslav59]

It’s going to be easy, maybe in a year or two, when some our best prospects are showing to be duds, for someone to say, “We should have traded ________ for Rizzo and Kimberly and gone for the 2021 ring.

 

[notin]

Where did that JD will forego his 2022 salary of $19.325M for a new 3 year $45M crowd go?

 

I still think it’s possible…

[User Name]

It’s going to be easy, maybe in a year or two, when some our best prospects are showing to be duds, for someone to say, “We should have traded ________ for Rizzo and Kimberly and gone for the 2021 ring.

 

 

Kimberly

[moonslav59]

Kimberly

 

Spell check made for a good one,

[moonslav59]

I still think it’s possible…

 

Me, too but I think less than 50-50.

[jacksonianmarch]

I still think it’s possible…

 

It’s more than possible. I think JD is as good as gone so long as he doesn’t go .600OPS last 6 weeks. At 34-35, you max out guaranteed money over rate of pay. He will get more than $19 mil guaranteed if he opts out

[Hugh2]

As much as I love JD you let him walk. Unless he wants to cut you a deal you don't invest in 34-year-old hitters asking for top dollar.

 

Not when you might have to deal with a Bogaerts opt-out too, and Devers/ERod will need extensions. JD is the odd man out. If the money was there........I'd put it into another starter.

[Nick]

It’s more than possible. I think JD is as good as gone so long as he doesn’t go .600OPS last 6 weeks. At 34-35, you max out guaranteed money over rate of pay. He will get more than $19 mil guaranteed if he opts out

 

I don't see him NOT getting a two year $26M deal at the end of 2022. That's the calculation I don't see not happening.

[Bellhorn04]

I don't see him NOT getting a two year $26M deal at the end of 2022. That's the calculation I don't see not happening.

 

Really? Even if he has an off year in 2022 and shows signs of losing bat speed?

[notin]

I don't see him NOT getting a two year $26M deal at the end of 2022. That's the calculation I don't see not happening.

 

I could see it not happening. But the odds of it happening do go up significantly if the NL adopts the DH.

 

And maybe that’s a factor. If the NL decides to adopt the DH in 2023, if I was his agent, I’d advise him to take his last option in Boston. If they adopt it for 2022, no way would I tell him to accept now that up to 15 more teams just got interested…

[Bellhorn04]

So his agent is going to tell an accomplished hitter who believes himself that hey, let's hoodwink general managers and steal $45M because you'll probably suck in 2022? Or maybe JD just thinks he can get 3 year $60M type of deal after opting out this year.

 

Good luck with that.....

 

JD is an accomplished hitter, absolutely, but he's purely a DH, and age-wise he's getting into the worry zone.

 

He's most certainly not getting any 3 for 60 offers if he opts out.

[jacksonianmarch]

Correct. He can probably get a 3-13 or 3-15 from an offense starved team

[moonslav59]

There was a lot of talk we bid against ourselves when we signed him to his last deal.

 

He and his agent may think he's worth more than any GM thinks, but I doubt he tops Nelson Cruz's deal.

 

$57M/4 (2015-2018)

$26M/2 (2019-2020)

$13M/1 (2021)

 

He may think he will, and he's younger than Cruz was for most of these deals, but his numbers are pretty similar, and he's basically a DH-only player.

[mvp 78]

Correct. He can probably get a 3-13 or 3-15 from an offense starved team

 

And he's not a DH only profile. He's a DH preferred profile. He actually likes playing the OF.

[Nick]

It’s going to be easy, maybe in a year or two, when some our best prospects are showing to be duds, for someone to say, “We should have traded ________ for Rizzo and Kimberly and gone for the 2021 ring.

 

 

Sox's high ranking is based on 3 players, Casas, Mayer and Duran. Downs moved out of top 100 faster than a delinquent renter. Casas is probably couple of years away and maybe Mayer will be the replacement for Xander.

 

If we can't win even with additions of Sale, Houck, Duran and Schwarber in the lineup then there are serious flaws with this team. Maybe we're just not very good.

[Nick]

Sure looks like a good hitting lineup going into 2021

 

.916 Schwarber

.914 Xander

.896 Devers

.893 JD

.800 Renfroe

.792 Arroyo

.791 Kike

.769 Verdugo

 

We're basically in top 5 in AL in runs scored (4th), have 91 more runs than the Yankees but we trail them.

 

What's amazing is Rays are tied for first in AL for runs scored, 40+more than the Sox despite only having 3 players with OPS in 800's.

Edited August 20, 2021 by Nick

[moonslav59]

And he's not a DH only profile. He's a DH preferred profile. He actually likes playing the OF.

 

No manager would really want to play him in the OF.

 

As he gets even older, that becomes even more important.

 

Yes, he can play corner OF, especially a short one.

 

He could also learn 1B, if a team has someone else they want at DH.

[Bellhorn04]

There was a lot of talk we bid against ourselves when we signed him to his last deal.

 

And there was also a lot of talk that we got a good deal, much lower than Boras was asking, and DD did a good job waiting him out.

 

Kimmi gave it her stamp of approval, that was good enough for me.

[moonslav59]

Sox's high ranking is based on 3 players, Casas, Mayer and Duran. Downs moved out of top 100 faster than a delinquent renter. Casas is probably couple of years away and maybe Mayer will be the replacement for Xander.

 

If we can't win even with additions of Sale, Houck, Duran and Schwarber in the lineup then there are serious flaws with this team. Maybe we're just not very good.

 

That's how I see it, and we also had Arroyo returning at some point.

 

Maybe it was all a house of mirrors.

 

I seriously doubt the fact that we only added Schwarber, who by the way was no minor addition, deflated the team's morale so much, it turned a sure winner into a flailing horror show. That idea seems rather comic to me.

[mvp 78]

And there was also a lot of talk that we got a good deal, much lower than Boras was asking, and DD did a good job waiting him out.

 

Kimmi gave it her stamp of approval, that was good enough for me.

 

The JD deal was good. Not sure how anyone could complain about it.

[Bellhorn04]

The JD deal was good. Not sure how anyone could complain about it.

 

Apparently there was a lot of talk we bid against ourselves.

[Nick]

What is Sox identity?

 

Without looking at historical stats, I've always felt Red Sox teams always hit.

 

But we didn't win between 1967-2003. Came close but no cigar. (used 1967 because that's when I became a fan)

 

What changed in 2004? Did our pitching become stellar in the years we won it all? Was it because of 1-2 punch at the top of rotation?

 

I think the answer is resounding yes. Just going by my perception.

 

We are/were pitching by 'committee' this year and they were finally exposed for not having an ace. Eovaldi is not an ace. E Rod is not an ace. Then our bullpen fell apart.

 

We need a #1 alongside Sale for 2022.

Edited August 20, 2021 by Nick

[moonslav59]

Apparently there was a lot of talk we bid against ourselves.

 

That's not a complaint. I think we were all happy to see JD join the team and still are.

 

Those two things are a rarity.

[Bellhorn04]

What is Sox identity?

 

Without looking at historical stats, I've always felt Red Sox teams always hit.

 

But we didn't win between 1967-2003. Came close but no cigar. (used 1967 because that's when I became a fan)

 

What changed in 2004? Did our pitching become stellar in the years we won it all? Was it because of 1-2 punch at the top of rotation?

 

I think the answer is resounding yes. Just going by my perception.

 

We were pitching by 'committee' this year and we were finally exposed for not having an ace. Eovaldi is not an ace. E Rod is not an ace. Then our bullpen fell apart.

 

We need a #1 alongside Sale for 2022.

 

Ax far as the identity part goes, Bill Lee said it was the Wall that formed the identity of a lot of those Sox teams of the past. Management would load up on RH power hitters to take advantage of the wall, and try to outslug other teams. It was a flawed strategy, obviously.

 

I think you have to give a lot of credit to Theo Epstein for recognizing that the Red Sox needed to get much stronger in other areas.

[mvp 78]

Apparently there was a lot of talk we bid against ourselves.

 

I vaguely remember that, but we also signed early. I think we just wanted to get the deal done.

 

Thanks Desperate Dave!!!!!!

[mvp 78]

Ax far as the identity part goes, Bill Lee said it was the Wall that formed the identity of a lot of those Sox teams of the past. Management would load up on RH power hitters to take advantage of the wall, and try to outslug other teams. It was a flawed strategy, obviously.

 

I think you have to give a lot of credit to Theo Epstein for recognizing that the Red Sox needed to get much stronger in other areas.

 

I like Bill Lee, but he's not a reliable narrator IMO.

[Bellhorn04]

That's not a complaint. I think we were all happy to see JD join the team and still are.

 

Those two things are a rarity.

 

Yeah, but that statement is definitely a complaint. And you hear it a lot. Price was another one.

 

The statement is usually based on a lack of reports of other teams in on the bidding. Fans assume that means there weren't any, and it gives them something to beef about.

[Bellhorn04]

I vaguely remember that, but we also signed early. I think we just wanted to get the deal done.

 

Thanks Desperate Dave!!!!!!

 

We did not sign JD early.

[moonslav59]

What is Sox identity?

 

Without looking at historical stats, I've always felt Red Sox teams always hit.

 

But we didn't win between 1967-2003. Came close but no cigar. (used 1967 because that's when I became a fan)

 

What changed in 2004? Did our pitching become stellar in the years we won it all? Was it because of 1-2 punch at the top of rotation?

 

I think the answer is resounding yes. Just going by my perception.

 

We are/were pitching by 'committee' this year and they were finally exposed for not having an ace. Eovaldi is not an ace. E Rod is not an ace. Then our bullpen fell apart.

 

We need a #1 alongside Sale for 2022.

 

I've often pointed out that every winning Sox team had a second "ace." That doesn't mean every year we had two top pitchers, we won, but IMO, every year we won we did.

 

We didn't win until we added Schilling.

 

We didn't win the second time, until we replaced Pedro with Beckett.

 

We didn't win again, until we added Lackey to Lester.

 

We didn't win again, until we added Sale to Price.

 

1967: we had just Lonborg.

 

1975: just Tiant.

 

1986: just Clemens.

 

[moonslav59]

We did not sign JD early.

 

It was about as late as big signings like his have been.