A Realistic View at 2022: Part I

[Bellhorn04]

The variances are too great to be chalked up to other factors.

 

Ha, this is like the clutch-choke argument in reverse.

[moonslav59]

If CERA is the basis of this argument for you, that's a pretty tiny hill to die on.

 

I used CERA and OPS against in dozens of sample sizes chosen only by having large enough samples from multiple catchers.

 

I did it for Posada and VTek, too, over many many years.

 

Several sample sizes had 150 to over 200 IP by both catchers.

 

I also did sample sizes of RPers with much smaller sample sizes, and while those results and conclusions were more mixed, even those favored guys like VTek and Leon and disfavored Posada and Vaz and Salty and Swihart. Kinda the guys you’d expect, except for some people on Vaz..

[moonslav59]

Ha, this is like the clutch-choke argument in reverse.

 

Huh?

[User Name]

I used CERA and OPS against in dozens of sample sizes chosen only by having large enough samples from multiple catchers.

 

I did it for Posada and VTek, too, over many many years.

 

Several sample sizes had 150 to over 200 IP by both catchers.

 

I also did sample sizes of RPers with much smaller sample sizes, and while those results and conclusions were more mixed, even those favored guys like VTek and Leon and disfavored Posada and Vaz and Salty and Swihart. Kinda the guys you’d expect, except for some people on Vaz..

 

Jesus Christ. This argument is bad, and you should feel bad.

[moonslav59]

Jesus Christ. This argument is bad, and you should feel bad.

 

Lol. I feel great and omnipotent.

 

lol

[User Name]

Lol. I feel great and omnipotent.

 

lol

 

In that we should crucify you should you keep this argument up?

[jacksonianmarch]

I just read the first page of this thread.

 

You guys have Tyler Durden? Well now we are all f***ed.

[Bellhorn04]

Huh?

 

Because you just used the identical argument I did about Kershaw: "the variances are too large to be chalked up to other factors". You shot that argument down with computer generated random samples.

[moonslav59]

Because you just used the identical argument I did about Kershaw: "the variances are too large to be chalked up to other factors". You shot that argument down with computer generated random samples.

 

I have 10 Kershaw that do way better with anyone not named Vaz or Swihart.

 

It’s not hard to imagine pitchers doing better with JBJ in CF or Cabrera at SS, why would the catching position not be at least as important to a pitcher than SS and CF? I mean, they do a lot more than just field hit balls.

[Bellhorn04]

I have 10 Kershaw that do way better with anyone not named Vaz or Swihart.

 

It’s not hard to imagine pitchers doing better with JBJ in CF or Cabrera at SS, why would the catching position not be at least as important to a pitcher than SS and CF? I mean, they do a lot more than just field hit balls.

 

Of course. But Vaz has good catcher skills according to the metrics.

 

If Sandy Leon's superior CERA was of as much value as you're suggesting, why is he a goner and Vaz still here? Does it mean the Red Sox are clueless about CERA value?

[oldtimer]

After reading all the CERA blather, I'm sorry I brought the question of catching needs or 2022 up in the first place.

[mvp 78]

After reading all the CERA blather, I'm sorry I brought the question of catching needs or 2022 up in the first place.

 

It's a legitimate concern. As Vaz ages, his production will crater. Who will take his place? Wong isn't there. Plawecki doesn't seem to be the guy.

 

Other options on the farm:

 

Ronaldo Hernandez AA - hits the ball a ton (had a great July, but has been not great otherwise), but is a poor catcher

Kole Cottam AA - most likely an up and down 3rd Catcher role

Jaxx Groshans A+ - bat first, glove second guy

Jonathan Diaz A - tools to be an MLB guy, but is years and years away

Nathan Hickey FCL - similar to Hernandez and Groshans above, maybe moved off C to 1b or 3b

 

While there are more intriguing guys in the org today than a few years ago, it's a whole lot of question marks who really aren't going to be knocking on the door in 2022 and maybe not even in 2023. I wonder if they end up extending Vaz at some point.

[notin]

It's a legitimate concern. As Vaz ages, his production will crater. Who will take his place? Wong isn't there. Plawecki doesn't seem to be the guy.

 

Other options on the farm:

 

Ronaldo Hernandez AA - hits the ball a ton (had a great July, but has been not great otherwise), but is a poor catcher

Kole Cottam AA - most likely an up and down 3rd Catcher role

Jaxx Groshans A+ - bat first, glove second guy

Jonathan Diaz A - tools to be an MLB guy, but is years and years away

Nathan Hickey FCL - similar to Hernandez and Groshans above, maybe moved off C to 1b or 3b

 

While there are more intriguing guys in the org today than a few years ago, it's a whole lot of question marks who really aren't going to be knocking on the door in 2022 and maybe not even in 2023. I wonder if they end up extending Vaz at some point.

 

So far, Bloom's worst trade IMO was dealing Jhon Nunez for Matt Hall, a deal that somehow actually looks worse because Hall was probably a Spider Tacker (and still awful). Nunez was not necessarily anything special, but might be near the top of the depth chart for this org...

[User Name]

This team managed to turn a pretty good day into a headache inducing nightmare.

[Bellhorn04]

This team managed to turn a pretty good day into a headache inducing nightmare.

 

Today is another day, my friend.

 

(Which may end in another nightmare, if we don't f'king win LOL)

[moonslav59]

Of course. But Vaz has good catcher skills according to the metrics.

 

If Sandy Leon's superior CERA was of as much value as you're suggesting, why is he a goner and Vaz still here? Does it mean the Red Sox are clueless about CERA value?

 

I have never doubted Vaz's physical catching skills.

 

I also have never claimed that the full advantage pitchers showed with Vaz could not have been influenced by other factors.

 

They held onto Leon for a very long time for reasons I have to think are related to how much pitchers loved him catching their games.

 

I don't know why they finally let him go. Maybe 2 straight seasons of sub .550 hitting was the breaking point.

 

To me, if he really meant a 1.00 to 1.50 boost to a pitcher's ERA, batting .250 OPS would still make him a plus.

 

BTW, Leon played a lot with MIA, this year despite an OPS below .500!

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

They held onto Leon for a very long time for reasons I have to think are related to how much pitchers loved him catching their games.

 

I don't know why they finally let him go. Maybe 2 straight seasons of sub .550 hitting was the breaking point.

 

To me, if he really meant a 1.00 to 1.50 boost to a pitcher's ERA, batting .250 OPS would still make him a plus.

 

I've agreed with this about Leon for a long time. If JBJ was kept around because his D was that valuable to the pitching staff, imagine how much more having a trustworthy catcher means.

[mvp 78]

So far, Bloom's worst trade IMO was dealing Jhon Nunez for Matt Hall, a deal that somehow actually looks worse because Hall was probably a Spider Tacker (and still awful). Nunez was not necessarily anything special, but might be near the top of the depth chart for this org...

 

He'll probably just grab another glove first retread this offseason. They are a dime a dozen.

[mvp 78]

I have never doubted Vaz's physical catching skills.

 

I also have never claimed that the full advantage pitchers showed with Vaz could not have been influenced by other factors.

 

They held onto Leon for a very long time for reasons I have to think are related to how much pitchers loved him catching their games.

 

I don't know why they finally let him go. Maybe 2 straight seasons of sub .550 hitting was the breaking point.

 

To me, if he really meant a 1.00 to 1.50 boost to a pitcher's ERA, batting .250 OPS would still make him a plus.

 

BTW, Leon played a lot with MIA, this year despite an OPS below .500!

 

Still a negative fWAR guy. Not good.

[mvp 78]

I've agreed with this about Leon for a long time. If JBJ was kept around because his D was that valuable to the pitching staff, imagine how much more having a trustworthy catcher means.

 

Another negative fWAR guy.

[mvp 78]

@SoxNotes

Rafael Devers leads the majors with 180 XBH since the start of 2019.

 

Devers has 249 career XBH. He would become only the 41st player since 1900 to reach 250 XBH before turning 25 years old, and only the 3rd Red Sox player to do so (Ted Williams & Bobby Doerr).

 

LOCK HIM UP! LOCK HIM UP!

[moonslav59]

Still a negative fWAR guy. Not good.

 

fWAR does not factor in pitchers having 0.50 to 1.50 better ERAs with Leon.

 

That's why Leon stuck around for so long despite horrific offense. He played 5 seasons with the Sox-playing in 65-89 games in 4 of them!

 

He's also played in 63 games for the Marlins, this year, despite a sub .500 OPS.

[Hugh2]

In a year or two you will just need a guy behind the plate who can hit and throw the ball. I bet when Robo Umps arrive we will start to see the offensive value of the position rise.

[Bellhorn04]

To me, if he really meant a 1.00 to 1.50 boost to a pitcher's ERA, batting .250 OPS would still make him a plus.

 

I would agree, and I think most people would. Which means I don't think anyone believes a catcher can make that radical a difference in ERA over the long haul.

[mvp 78]

fWAR does not factor in pitchers having 0.50 to 1.50 better ERAs with Leon.

 

That's why Leon stuck around for so long despite horrific offense. He played 5 seasons with the Sox-playing in 65-89 games in 4 of them!

 

He's also played in 63 games for the Marlins, this year, despite a sub .500 OPS.

 

He stinks and the Marlins stink. What's the big deal? It's not like he's getting that run on a good team.

[notin]

In a year or two you will just need a guy behind the plate who can hit and throw the ball. I bet when Robo Umps arrive we will start to see the offensive value of the position rise.

 

Hence Henry Davis being drafted first…

[mvp 78]

Hence Henry Davis being drafted first…

 

Actually... he was drafted first because he was a great talent who signed $1.9M UNDER SLOT.

[moonslav59]

I would agree, and I think most people would. Which means I don't think anyone believes a catcher can make that radical a difference in ERA over the long haul.

 

I seriously doubt he made a 1.50 difference, either, even with the one or two guys who had those disparities. Certainly other factors are involved, but when just about every pitcher over the 5 years Leon was here did better with him, especially the ones with significant sample sizes with more than just him, I have to think he made some sort of positive impact, or else he would not have played as much as he did.

 

He hit way worse than other catchers on those teams.

 

His framing and bad-pitch-blocking skills were not greater or much greater than the others.

 

His throwing out base stealers (what are those, these days?) were also not that much better, if at all better.

 

Am I the only one that thinks the massive amount of pitchers do better or much better with him might have something to do with things not captured by WAR?

 

I can't believe it's all just a statistical random occurrence with just about every single pitcher? It would be like having 20 Kershaw's all on one team and all pitching 1.50 over their seasonal ERA in the playoffs, and then the same thing with Vaz vs other catchers (bad way) and VTek with other catchers (good way).

 

I'm fine with people not believing catchers make big differences, and personally, I don't attribute all of the variance to just Leon, but I think the overwhelming amount of sample size, big, medium and small show pitchers do better or worse with certain catchers means something substantial.

 

[moonslav59]

He stinks and the Marlins stink. What's the big deal? It's not like he's getting that run on a good team.

 

You don't think they'd start a .650 catcher, if they think he would help more than a .498 one that is working well with young pitchers.

[notin]

Actually... he was drafted first because he was a great talent who signed $1.9M UNDER SLOT.

 

I do think that his reported biggest weakness is potentially being phased out of the game was certainly icing on the cake…