A Realistic View at 2021: Part III

[notin]

We do need some min wage guys on he team, and I still like Duran's upside, despite his age. He's pretty new at the OF, so cut him some slack on defense.

 

His sample size on offense is miniscule.

 

Since all of our starting OF'ers can play CF, having Duran as the 4th OF'er to play LF is not bad.

 

Now, sure, if some team sees him as a starter and offers us something as good or better at a starting position, I'm all ears.

 

Do you trade Duran for a decent RP'er with 3 years of team control?

 

 

That’s an interesting question.

 

It’s tough to talk a guy down and then expect an elite return. I suppose Duran trades need case by case evaluation. (warning: cop out alert)..

[Nick]

My hope is we beat the Yankees in a one game playoff on our way to the World Series.

 

I will fly to wherever Jacksonianmarch is and buy him drinks and let him cry on my shoulders.

[Nick]

Oh by the way, Renfroe is not a great fielder. He always has looked little shaky to me in right field.

 

THERE IS NO DENYING HE HAS A CANNON. Two different skill sets.

[notin]

Oh by the way, Renfroe is not a great fielder. He always has looked little shaky to me in right field.

 

THERE IS NO DENYING HE HAS A CANNON. Two different skill sets.

 

Renfroe should be the new closer..

[Nick]

Renfroe should be the new closer..

 

And Dalbec

[Nick]

If you give Schwarber $90M for 6 years, will he agree to catch for us?

[Nick]

When I watch Devers, he seems to cover more ground than Xander. Can he play better SS than Xander?

 

Or can he be moved to 2B where the throws are shorter?

[moonslav59]

I think it's a stretch he gets to 790. You never know though.

 

His biggest issue has been following up on these mini hot streaks with some very bad slumps, but it's not hard to imagine him jumping 29 points.

 

He jumped 29 points (.767 to .703) in one day (8/11), then 21 the next game (8/13). Just a few days ago, he jumped 28 points in one day (8/25) from .712 to .740 and then rose 17 more points over his last 3 games.

 

If this kid can do anything, he can make massive gains in short times (big games).

 

For those who believe in clutch hitting and timely hitting as skills, you should love Dalbec. He's been hitting when the team needs it most:

 

1.209 since the trade deadline.

 

1.012 High Leverage, all year.

 

Batting 9th for much of the season- behind guys like Cordero, Marwin, Santana and Vaz, he has 61 RBIs in 368 PAs. RBI/PA

.177 Devers

.168 Renfroe

.167 Dalbec

.157 JD

.143 Arroyo

.135 Bogey (What's up, here?)

.115 Verdugo

.115 Santana

.106 Kike (leading off behind many low OBP players)

.096 Vaz

.089 Duran

.074 Marwin

.066 Cordero

.065 Plawecki

 

[Nick]

Might Boston Red Sox use prospect Connor Seabold (3.29 ERA, 5 starts for Worcester in August) as multi-inning reliever? MassLive

 

Is Pope Catholic?

 

“It was ridiculous,” Sale said about Seabold’s stuff. “I mean, plus fastball, plus breaking ball. I know his first one back his command was a little bit off. But as long as he keeps filling up the zone, his stuff plays anywhere. I wouldn’t be too surprised to see him out there (in the big leagues) sooner rather than later. He looks like he’s polished enough to come up here and start getting some big outs.”

Edited September 2, 2021 by Nick

[moonslav59]

And better outfielders on the roster.

 

The biggest factor in Duran’s favor is the Sox don’t have much outfield talent between MLB and A ball. They have Jeisson Rosario, who is a good hit/no hit type, and Franchy Cordero, who has power, speed, can’t field and too much swing and miss aka the exact description of Duran. But Cordero is two years older so he’s washed up, but the younger Duran apparently needs more time?

 

I'm thinking Rosario will be DFA'd for the rule 5 additions or once we start signing free agents.

[Nick]

Red Sox: Can Kyle Schwarber fit on ‘22 Red Sox? Per MLB

 

At least offensively, Schwarber has fit like a glove since he joined the Boston lineup on Aug. 13. Can there be a fit beyond this season? There’s at least a chance, given that Schwarber and the Red Sox have a mutual option for $11.5 million that includes a $3 million buyout. The question the Red Sox must ask themselves is this: Can Schwarber fit defensively? In part, that could depend on if J.D. Martinez decides to exercise the final opt-out in his contract. In a perfect world, Schwarber would DH for the Red Sox. But given the quality of Schwarber’s at-bats, the Red Sox could be tempted to keep him regardless of the defensive fit. If Schwarber can gain some comfort at first base, it would make him more appealing for Boston. In that scenario, he could rotate between first base, DH and left field.

[Nick]

What would cost Sox to get him?

 

Rays: What will they do with Tyler Glasnow?

Perhaps the most intriguing bit of business the Rays must address is their path forward with ace Tyler Glasnow, who is expected to miss all of next season after undergoing Tommy John surgery in August. Glasnow is arbitration-eligible for two more years, meaning he’ll get a raise from his $4 million salary next year and earn that same pay when he’s healthy and ready to return in 2023, his final season before reaching free agency. Among the Rays' options: releasing him to free themselves of the financial/roster commitment, which seems highly unlikely; keeping him on the roster through the end of his club control, but no further; attempting to extend him beyond 2023, delaying his free agency (likely not something Glasnow would want, keep in mind) in return for guaranteed money; trading him this offseason, assuming another team would be willing to invest heavily in his ‘23 return; or waiting to trade him until later, either after he’s proven his return to full health next year or closer to him becoming a free agent. -- Adam Berry

[moonslav59]

He started playing OF in Lowell, I think. It's not like the conversion was last year.

 

Innings in the OF:

 

A- RF 261

A+ CF 424

AA CF 671

AAA CF 338

AAA RF 54

AAA LF 17

 

That's over 1400 in CF and over 300 in RF/LF.

 

OF'ers have been known to get 1400 innings in one season (rare but true), and 1200-1300 is common.

 

I still think Duran can grow into a decent to plus defender.

[Maxbialystock]

Our Sox will go as far as their pitching will take them. The Yankees, Rays, Astros, Chisox, and A's all have better pitching.

 

Indeed, it's to Cora's credit that the Sox are 2 games ahead of the A's for one wild card slot and 2 behind the Yankees for the other.

[moonslav59]

When I watch Devers, he seems to cover more ground than Xander. Can he play better SS than Xander?

 

Or can he be moved to 2B where the throws are shorter?

 

Isn't 1B more obvious?

 

Dalbec has not improved his already bad defense at 1B over a nrea full season of play.

 

But then, are we going to trade Dalbec and Duran? The only 2 min wage players with a chance to play a lot, next season?

[moonslav59]

Our Sox will go as far as their pitching will take them. The Yankees, Rays, Astros, Chisox, and A's all have better pitching.

 

Indeed, it's to Cora's credit that the Sox are 2 games ahead of the A's for one wild card slot and 2 behind the Yankees for the other.

 

ERA+

117 HOU

116 NYY

112 OAK

108 BOS

108 TBR

 

ERA-

87 HOU

89 TBR

89 NYY

92 BOS

96 OAK

 

Maybe it's closer than plain old ERA shows it is.

 

[Nick]

Isn't 1B more obvious?

 

Dalbec has not improved his already bad defense at 1B over a nrea full season of play.

 

But then, are we going to trade Dalbec and Duran? The only 2 min wage players with a chance to play a lot, next season?

 

Casas will be there soon. Duran in CF. Dalbec DH. Casas at 1B. Dalbec can backup both 3B and 1B.

 

I'll be pissed if we trade either one.

 

Who knows, a light bulb may turn on in Dalbec's head. You know, figure out the strike zone.

Edited September 2, 2021 by Nick

[mvp 78]

Projected end of 2023 lineup if no acquisitions:

 

C Wong/RHernadez

1B Casas

2B Yorke

3B Devers

SS Fitzgerald?

RF Renfroe

CF Duran

LF Verdugo

DH Dalbec

[Nick]

Projected end of 2023 lineup if no acquisitions:

 

C Wong/RHernadez

1B Casas

2B Yorke

3B Devers

SS Fitzgerald?

RF Renfroe

CF Duran

LF Verdugo

DH Dalbec

 

I like it.

[dgalehouse]

Well, at least things haven't gotten so bad that we are picking up career .189 hitting jabronis from team like the Rockies. ........ Wait a minute . Oh , no. Damn.

[moonslav59]

Projected end of 2023 lineup if no acquisitions:

 

C Wong/RHernadez

1B Casas

2B Yorke

3B Devers

SS Fitzgerald?

RF Renfroe

CF Duran

LF Verdugo

DH Dalbec

 

Soxprospects.com has these projections:

 

2023

C Wong

1B Casas

2B Downs

3B Devers

SS Bogey

LF Verdugo

CF Duran

RF Renfroe

DH Dalbec

 

SP Sale, Whitlock, Pivetta, Bello, Seabold, Groome

RP Houck, Barnes, Taylor, DHern, Valdez, Rios, Winckowski, Feltman, Bazardo

 

2024

Wong

Casas

Yorke

Downs (SS)

Bogey (3B)

Verdugo

Duran

Jimenez

Dalbec

 

Same SP

Same RP (replace Rios with Mata/Ward/Murphy)

[moonslav59]

Casas will be there soon. Duran in CF. Dalbec DH. Casas at 1B. Dalbec can backup both 3B and 1B.

 

I'll be pissed if we trade either one.

 

Who knows, a light bulb may turn on in Dalbec's head. You know, figure out the strike zone.

 

Maybe the light bulb has already been turned on.

 

I really like Casas, but he needs to hit better than .785 in AA to be considered a starter in 2022 or even 2023.

[moonslav59]

Mets claim Brad Hand.

 

Starlin Castro released.

[mvp 78]

Well, at least things haven't gotten so bad that we are picking up career .189 hitting jabronis from team like the Rockies. ........ Wait a minute . Oh , no. Damn.

 

The Bloom connection is that Motter was with the Rays org from 2011-16. His 1279 OPS in AAA this year is hilarious.

[mvp 78]

Maybe the light bulb has already been turned on.

 

I really like Casas, but he needs to hit better than .785 in AA to be considered a starter in 2022 or even 2023.

 

Not a starter on 4/1, but maybe a starter on 9/1 if he continues to improve his power.

[moonslav59]

Not a starter on 4/1, but maybe a starter on 9/1 if he continues to improve his power.

 

Oh, I'm far from giving upon Casas, but he needs to show improvement before he gets called up, which I think he will do.

 

How much improvement and how quickly will determine his call-up date.

 

Devers has 2 years, after this. Moving Devers to 1B for 2022 should not e affected by the ETA of Casas.

 

[mvp 78]

Sox DRS in CF:

Kiké 11

Santana 0

Renfroe 0

Verdugo -4

Duran -6

 

When Kiké comes back, he must be the fulltime CF.

[notin]

The Bloom connection is that Motter was with the Rays org from 2011-16. His 1279 OPS in AAA this year is hilarious.

 

And also Bloom is not going to let a single player with both infield and outfield expert at the MLB level sneak past him…

[moonslav59]

Sox DRS in CF:

Kiké 11

Santana 0

Renfroe 0

Verdugo -4

Duran -6

 

When Kiké comes back, he must be the fulltime CF.

 

Wow, Duran at -6 in what? 200 innings?

[moonslav59]

Sox DRS in CF:

Kiké 11

Santana 0

Renfroe 0

Verdugo -4

Duran -6

 

When Kiké comes back, he must be the fulltime CF.

 

I brought up Kike's CF and 2B numbers when we signed him, but very few agreed he should be our FT CF'er.