Barnes extended

[moonslav59]

So contract weren't suppressed last offseason?

 

When did I say that?

 

We are talking about Barnes signing now vs next winter and not now vs last winter.

 

Even if you go by last year's 3 biggest RP'er deals, this looks like a nice extension for the team.

 

I still se it as a steal.

 

Maybe highway robbery was hyperbole, but this was a steal.

 

Had there been a FA market in early July, Barnes would have gotten much more, and not just based on the recency effect.

[Nick]

When did I say that?

 

We are talking about Barnes signing now vs next winter and not now vs last winter.

 

Even if you go by last year's 3 biggest RP'er deals, this looks like a nice extension for the team.

 

I still se it as a steal.

 

Maybe highway robbery was hyperbole, but this was a steal.

 

Had there been a FA market in early July, Barnes would have gotten much more, and not just based on the recency effect.

 

I also think it's a good deal for the Sox.

 

It's just a two year deal. If it goes well, we'll have him for third year, 2024.

 

In essence we've flipped Ottavino's contract to Barnes. We can acquire inexpensive addition to the pen, if we choose to do so.

 

We'll need to replace Ottavino with someone internal, maybe Houck or some another minor leaguer will step up.

 

We'll have Barnes, Taylor, Darwinzon, Brasier, Whitlock (if not a starter), Houck (if not a starter) and Sawamura. I think the brass likes Rios. Healthy Chris Sale will improve our starting rotation, Sale > E Rod if he's not re-signed.

 

Bello maybe on a fast track. Perhaps a September call up in 2022.

Edited July 12, 2021 by Nick

[Bellhorn04]

Some overvalue Barnes' small-sample 37-inning turnaround from his forgettable 2020 season.

 

Sorry, but I can't let this one slide.

 

You call the 37 innings in 2021 a "small sample", but the 23 innings in 2020 a "forgettable season".

[harmony]

Sorry, but I can't let this one slide.

 

You call the 37 innings in 2021 a "small sample", but the 23 innings in 2020 a "forgettable season".

Good point.

 

One small sample and one even smaller sample.

[Kimmi]

I also think it's a good deal for the Sox.

 

It's just a two year deal. If it goes well, we'll have him for third year, 2024.

 

In essence we've flipped Ottavino's contract to Barnes. We can acquire inexpensive addition to the pen, if we choose to do so.

 

We'll need to replace Ottavino with someone internal, maybe Houck or some another minor leaguer will step up.

 

We'll have Barnes, Taylor, Darwinzon, Brasier, Whitlock (if not a starter), Houck (if not a starter) and Sawamura. I think the brass likes Rios. Healthy Chris Sale will improve our starting rotation, Sale > E Rod if he's not re-signed.

 

Bello maybe on a fast track. Perhaps a September call up in 2022.

 

It's interesting that some thought that the trade for Ottavino was not a good trade because the Sox picked up $8M of his salary. Ottavino @ $8M is not a good deal (not to mention that we also receive German in that deal), but Barnes @ $18.75M/2yrs is a steal.

[Bellhorn04]

It's interesting that some thought that the trade for Ottavino was not a good trade because the Sox picked up $8M of his salary. Ottavino @ $8M is not a good deal (not to mention that we also receive German in that deal), but Barnes @ $18.75M/2yrs is a steal.

 

You can chalk most of it up to Recency Bias. Ottavino's 2020 small sample was not great and there was a sense the Yankees were 'unloading' him on us. But he's been fine. Another good move by Bloom.

 

As for Barnes, I think a lot of the 'steal' idea is based on the assumption that if he had gotten to free agency, some GM would be willing to overpay him like Hendriks arguably was. Yet another good move by Bloom.

[moonslav59]

It's interesting that some thought that the trade for Ottavino was not a good trade because the Sox picked up $8M of his salary. Ottavino @ $8M is not a good deal (not to mention that we also receive German in that deal), but Barnes @ $18.75M/2yrs is a steal.

 

Many felt German was the main part of the deal, but you are right. The $8M was a head scratcher.

 

I know part of my questioning the deal was about us being against the wall on spending, which should not be the case with the Barnes signing AND we helped the Yanks stay under the tax line!

[notin]

You can chalk most of it up to Recency Bias. Ottavino's 2020 small sample was not great and there was a sense the Yankees were 'unloading' him on us. But he's been fine. Another good move by Bloom.

 

As for Barnes, I think a lot of the 'steal' idea is based on the assumption that if he had gotten to free agency, some GM would be willing to overpay him like Hendriks arguably was. Yet another good move by Bloom.

 

Ottavino's "not great 2020" was not so much Recency Bias as it was a Cursory Bias (which, I admit, I just made up). He only had 2 innings all year where let let up more than 1 run, and allowed 0 runs in 17 of his 22 IP, but with the small sample size, those two big innings inflated his ERA dramatically...

[mvp 78]

It's interesting that some thought that the trade for Ottavino was not a good trade because the Sox picked up $8M of his salary. Ottavino @ $8M is not a good deal (not to mention that we also receive German in that deal), but Barnes @ $18.75M/2yrs is a steal.

 

Nobody complained about Ottavino at the time he was dealt.

[mvp 78]

Ottavino's "not great 2020" was not so much Recency Bias as it was a Cursory Bias (which, I admit, I just made up). He only had 2 innings all year where let let up more than 1 run, and allowed 0 runs in 17 of his 22 IP, but with the small sample size, those two big innings inflated his ERA dramatically...

 

^^^

[mvp 78]

Many felt German was the main part of the deal, but you are right. The $8M was a head scratcher.

 

I know part of my questioning the deal was about us being against the wall on spending, which should not be the case with the Barnes signing AND we helped the Yanks stay under the tax line!

 

Many? I don't know of anyone who thought German was the main part of the deal.

[moonslav59]

Many? I don't know of anyone who thought German was the main part of the deal.

 

I meant to say “a main” not “the main.”

[notin]

Many? I don't know of anyone who thought German was the main part of the deal.

 

I did. What other reason did Bloom have to help the Yankees get under the bar while taking on a one year deal during a rebuilding season?

[mvp 78]

I did. What other reason did Bloom have to help the Yankees get under the bar while taking on a one year deal during a rebuilding season?

 

To have Adam Ottavino fill a hole in the pen? At worst he's a trade chip in July?

[mvp 78]

I meant to say “a main” not “the main.”

 

There weren't very many pieces to begin with in that deal.

 

Ottavino

German

Cash considerations

 

Sure he's "a main" part of the deal, but probably just as much as "cash considerations."

[Kimmi]

You can chalk most of it up to Recency Bias. Ottavino's 2020 small sample was not great and there was a sense the Yankees were 'unloading' him on us. But he's been fine. Another good move by Bloom.

 

As for Barnes, I think a lot of the 'steal' idea is based on the assumption that if he had gotten to free agency, some GM would be willing to overpay him like Hendriks arguably was. Yet another good move by Bloom.

 

Yes, there is definitely a lot of recency bias going on. I don't think anyone would have wanted Barnes extended for this amount at the end of last year.

 

IMO, the probable fact that some GM would be willing to give Barnes a large contract does not make this a steal for Bloom. It would mean that the other GM made a bad deal.

 

At any rate, I'm more than happy with the extension. I think Barnes is more than happy with it as well. It's a good deal all around.

[Kimmi]

Many felt German was the main part of the deal, but you are right. The $8M was a head scratcher.

 

I know part of my questioning the deal was about us being against the wall on spending, which should not be the case with the Barnes signing AND we helped the Yanks stay under the tax line!

 

Fair point about the Sox being up against the luxury tax line. When you have little financial flexibility, the way you spend any money will be scrutinized more heavily.

[Kimmi]

Nobody complained about Ottavino at the time he was dealt.

 

Maybe complain is too strong a word, but the deal was most definitely questioned.

[mvp 78]

Fair point about the Sox being up against the luxury tax line. When you have little financial flexibility, the way you spend any money will be scrutinized more heavily.

 

And yet his move worked out. Ottavino is the second best arm in the pen on a division leading team. He said they wanted to compete, we didn't believe him.

[Kimmi]

I did. What other reason did Bloom have to help the Yankees get under the bar while taking on a one year deal during a rebuilding season?

 

Bloom was not simply rebuilding. He was also building a contender for this year.

[Kimmi]

And yet his move worked out. Ottavino is the second best arm in the pen on a division leading team. He said they wanted to compete, we didn't believe him.

 

Absolutely the move worked out. I'm not questioning the move at all (and FTR, I 100% believed Bloom when he said he wanted to compete). I am just pointing out the discrepancy in the opinions of the Ottavino versus the Barnes deals.

[moonslav59]

Yes, there is definitely a lot of recency bias going on. I don't think anyone would have wanted Barnes extended for this amount at the end of last year.

 

IMO, the probable fact that some GM would be willing to give Barnes a large contract does not make this a steal for Bloom. It would mean that the other GM made a bad deal.

 

At any rate, I'm more than happy with the extension. I think Barnes is more than happy with it as well. It's a good deal all around.

 

I'd have been for extending him to this deal before 2020, and it goes against my philosophy to think a poor small sample size in 2020 should have changed my opinion, but it did. You are right about after 2020, but maybe not so much about Barnes not being worth it, but more or as much about the uncertainty of the free agent market due to COVID.

 

I don't think comparing now to then is just about the skillset evaluation of Barnes.

 

I do know many cringed at the thought of using Barnes as the closer, this year. Many were not happy about Ottavino in the role, either and at that cost.

 

The market has changed, IMO. Parks are full. Salaries should return to the norm.

[notin]

Bloom was not simply rebuilding. He was also building a contender for this year.

 

I’m not so sure that was the goal as everyone knew one of the most important pieces (Sale) was going to be a minor factor at best…

[Kimmi]

I'd have been for extending him to this deal before 2020, and it goes against my philosophy to think a poor small sample size in 2020 should have changed my opinion, but it did. You are right about after 2020, but maybe not so much about Barnes not being worth it, but more or as much about the uncertainty of the free agent market due to COVID.

 

I don't think comparing now to then is just about the skillset evaluation of Barnes.

 

I do know many cringed at the thought of using Barnes as the closer, this year. Many were not happy about Ottavino in the role, either and at that cost.

 

The market has changed, IMO. Parks are full. Salaries should return to the norm.

 

Fair post.

 

My feeling on bullpens is that teams should not spend heavily on them. I'm not saying that bullpens are not vital, just that very good pens can be built at a relatively cheap cost. So while GMs will continue to spend big money on closers, I think Bloom has done it correctly so far.

[Kimmi]

I’m not so sure that was the goal as everyone knew one of the most important pieces (Sale) was going to be a minor factor at best…

 

His priority was building for the long term, no doubt. He was not going to spend big for this year's team. That does not preclude building a contender for this year though.

 

I have likened this past offseason to 2013. It's possible to do both.

[mvp 78]

The market has changed, IMO. Parks are full. Salaries should return to the norm.

 

Didn't we expect this to happen? I don't know why a short term lull would have a great impact on salaries.

[Bellhorn04]

Didn't we expect this to happen? I don't know why a short term lull would have a great impact on salaries.

 

There was a time nobody really knew the long-term effects of COVID on the economy.

[moonslav59]

I’m not so sure that was the goal as everyone knew one of the most important pieces (Sale) was going to be a minor factor at best…

 

One can view the Marwin, Andriese, Perez, Sawamura, Santana and Kike deals as bridge deals- not really "contending moves." The Ottavino and Richards deals, and maybe Kike could be viewed as trying to compete for a playoff slot in 2021.

[moonslav59]

His priority was building for the long term, no doubt. He was not going to spend big for this year's team. That does not preclude building a contender for this year though.

 

I have likened this past offseason to 2013. It's possible to do both.

 

The winter before 2013, I said we "played it halfway" (or more like both ways- now and for the future).

[mvp 78]

There was a time nobody really knew the long-term effects of COVID on the economy.

 

When the vaccines began to rollout Nov/Dec, it was only a matter of time before things would be "normal."