2021 MLB draft

[moonslav59]

CBS/MLB Mock Draft 6/25

 

1. Mayer

2. Lawlar

3. Jobe

4. Leiter

5. Davis

6. Watson

7. Rocker

 

Callis has us getting Lawlar; Law has us getting Davis; Zielinski has us getting Davis; Collazo & McDaniel have us getting Leiter.

 

 

 

[Fan_since_Boggs]

The easiest way for the Red Sox to add a top-of-the-rotation starter (or something close to a top-of-the-rotation starter) is by drafting Leiter. I don't think Leiter is far from the majors right now. He will spend 2022 in the minors developing his pitches, particularly his changeup, and build up his innings. He will spend the first part of 2023 in the minors to control his innings and then he should be ready for the big leagues. Thus, I see Leiter earning a promotion to the major leagues sometime in 2023.

 

I think Leiter will be really really good right away, kind of like Oswalt, who was a top-of-the-rotation starter from the beginning of his major league career.

 

But if the Rangers and Tigers agree with that assessment, how can they possibly pass on Leiter? That question haunts me--it just doesn't seem logical for Leiter to slip to 4.

Edited June 28, 2021 by Fan_since_Boggs

[moonslav59]

The easiest way for the Red Sox to add a top-of-the-rotation starter (or something close to a top-of-the-rotation starter) is by drafting Leiter. I don't think Leiter is far from the majors right now. He will spend 2022 in the minors developing his pitches, particularly his changeup, and build up his innings. He will spend the first part of 2023 in the minors to control his innings and then he should be ready for the big leagues. Thus, I see Leiter earning a promotion to the major leagues sometime in 2023.

 

I think Leiter will be really really good right away, kind of like Oswalt, who was a top-of-the-rotation starter from the beginning of his major league career.

 

But if the Rangers and Tigers agree with that assessment, how can they possibly pass on Leiter? That question haunts me--it just doesn't seem logical for Leiter to slip to 4.

 

I agree, and if his comp is someone like Oswalt, how can someone take a chance that Jobe will be better than Oswalt? (Maybe they don't see Leiter being an Oswalt.)

 

I can see taking a position player as being "safer," but I'm not sure HS position players are safer than proven college pitchers.

[notin]

CBS/MLB Mock Draft 6/25

 

1. Mayer

2. Lawlar

3. Jobe

4. Leiter

5. Davis

6. Watson

7. Rocker

 

Callis has us getting Lawlar; Law has us getting Davis; Zielinski has us getting Davis; Collazo & McDaniel have us getting Leiter.

 

 

 

 

I’ve come to the conclusion that these mick drafts are all pretty useless. Everyone writing them cannot agree with each other on who teams are actually interested in. One guy says Texas loves Leiter. Someone else says they really live Lawler. Etc. Etc.

 

Sure someone might be right, but at this point probably only due to the sheer volume of mick drafts out there…

[Fan_since_Boggs]

In many mock drafts, Jobe ends up on the Tigers after the Rangers take Leiter. That is, the Tigers take Jobe only after their first preference--Leiter--is off the board. Thus, if the Rangers don't take Leiter, there is little chance that the Tigers would take Jobe over Leiter.

 

With that said, the only way Leiter gets to the Red Sox is if Leiter can scare off the Rangers and Tigers from taking him due to high bonus demands. That strategy has worked with the Pirates, who seem intent on drafting someone who will sign for under slot, but it remains to be seen if the Rangers and Tigers will back off.

 

Suspense will be in the air on draft night. Can't wait.

[moonslav59]

It’s hard to know what teams will do, and some may be putting up smoke screens.

 

I hope we get Leiter, but I doubt he drops to us.

 

I’d be thrilled with Davis or Rocker, but would not mind Jobe.

[Hugh2]

In many mock drafts, Jobe ends up on the Tigers after the Rangers take Leiter. That is, the Tigers take Jobe only after their first preference--Leiter--is off the board. Thus, if the Rangers don't take Leiter, there is little chance that the Tigers would take Jobe over Leiter.

 

With that said, the only way Leiter gets to the Red Sox is if Leiter can scare off the Rangers and Tigers from taking him due to high bonus demands. That strategy has worked with the Pirates, who seem intent on drafting someone who will sign for under slot, but it remains to be seen if the Rangers and Tigers will back off.

 

Suspense will be in the air on draft night. Can't wait.

 

I don't think that's the only way he gets to the Red Sox, the one defining narrative we keep hearing about this draft is no guy is really separating himself as the clear-cut #1 talent at the top. This class is very deep in stud high school shortstops who can all go in the top 5 Lawlar, Mayer, House, Wilson, and an up the middle college hitter who has middle of the order potential.

 

I think it's also worth pointing out that there are guys who will sign for 750K under slot at the top and guys who will sign for 2 million under slot. Most teams picking in the top 2-4 are signing guys for below slot by a few hundred thousand. These Mocks change from week to week from source to source, I don't think anything is set in stone.

 

Here is what we know, one of the top short stops (Lawar, Mayer) and one of Davis, Leiter is bound to fall to the Sox. I think the Sox pick comes down to those 4, but they could easily be in on guys like Wilson, Jobe, Rocker, and House too and we just have not heard much about it.

[Hugh2]

I really think the pick comes down to Leiter/Davis/Lawlar/Mayer with Mayer being the least likely guy in that group to fall.

[notin]

In many mock drafts, Jobe ends up on the Tigers after the Rangers take Leiter. That is, the Tigers take Jobe only after their first preference--Leiter--is off the board. Thus, if the Rangers don't take Leiter, there is little chance that the Tigers would take Jobe over Leiter.

 

With that said, the only way Leiter gets to the Red Sox is if Leiter can scare off the Rangers and Tigers from taking him due to high bonus demands. That strategy has worked with the Pirates, who seem intent on drafting someone who will sign for under slot, but it remains to be seen if the Rangers and Tigers will back off.

 

Suspense will be in the air on draft night. Can't wait.

 

See what I mean? I keep hearing the Tigers top choice is Marcelo Mayer. Is it Leiter? Mayer? Jobe? Davis? No one really knows.

 

I do think Leiter fails to reach the Sox. But I’m sticking with Rocker as their top choice. Sure some scouts are mildly souring on him (dropping from projected #1 to projected #7 is hardly an indictment of his skills), but Bloom needs raw talent pitching in the farm…

[Fan_since_Boggs]

We need Leiter's agent to play hardball with the Rangers and Tigers, let both organizations know that Leiter will only sign for above slot, and give the impression that he will be a pain-in-the-ass to sign and that he isn't worth the trouble, not with so many other intriguing players available at the top of the draft. Leiter's agent will also need to let the Red Sox know that he will sign for full slot value at 4.

 

The 2021 season has been awesome so far, not as great as 2018, but very nice so far and drafting Leiter would only add to that.

[moonslav59]

We need Leiter's agent to play hardball with the Rangers and Tigers, let both organizations know that Leiter will only sign for above slot, and give the impression that he will be a pain-in-the-ass to sign and that he isn't worth the trouble, not with so many other intriguing players available at the top of the draft. Leiter's agent will also need to let the Red Sox know that he will sign for full slot value at 4.

 

The 2021 season has been awesome so far, not as great as 2018, but very nice so far and drafting Leiter would only add to that.

 

Sounds good!

[Hugh2]

Latest Mock Draft from Mayo:

 

Pirates - Marcelo Mayer

Rangers - Jack Leiter

Tigers - Jackson Jobe

Red Sox - Henry Davis

Orioles - Kahlil Watson

D-Backs - Jordan Lawlar

Royals - Kumar Rocker

Rockies - Brady House.

 

So much Fluidity between those 8 guys. I think that's very likely your top 8. The actual order on the draft day might be a little different but that's the top teir.

[Hugh2]

"4. Red Sox: Henry Davis, C, Louisville

The names here continue to be Davis, the top college bat in the country, Lawlar, Watson and Rocker, of those who weren’t taken in the top three of this mock"

 

So the Sox are pretty much in on everyone not named House in that top tier of 8 guys.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Latest Mock Draft from Mayo:

 

Pirates - Marcelo Mayer

Rangers - Jack Leiter

Tigers - Jackson Jobe

Red Sox - Henry Davis

Orioles - Kahlil Watson

D-Backs - Jordan Lawlar

Royals - Kumar Rocker

Rockies - Brady House.

 

So much Fluidity between those 8 guys. I think that's very likely your top 8. The actual order on the draft day might be a little different but that's the top teir.

 

We want a pitcher, not a belly-itcher!

[Hugh2]

We want a pitcher, not a belly-itcher!

 

Yeah, I'd love to get Leiter in our system too. I'd be very happy with one of the top hitters in this class, especially Lawlar or Mayer.

[mvp 78]

Jobe has been all over the place in these mock drafts.

[Hugh2]

Jobe has been all over the place in these mock drafts.

 

A lot of guys are, almost everyone in the top 8 has been mocked #1 at some point recently.

[notin]

Yeah, I'd love to get Leiter in our system too. I'd be very happy with one of the top hitters in this class, especially Lawlar or Mayer.

 

Honestly, if it isn't one of the college arms, I'll be disheartened somewhat. But then I'll get over realizing Bloom knows more about doing this than me. Then I'll forget about who the Sox drafted altogether. Then I'll have some pie...

[notin]

A lot of guys are, almost everyone in the top 8 has been mocked #1 at some point recently.

 

Now watch Pittsburgh shock the world and draft Jud Fabian...

[Hugh2]

mmmmm Pie.

[Bellhorn04]

A lot of guys are, almost everyone in the top 8 has been mocked #1 at some point recently.

 

LOL a good reminder of why not to pay attention to any of them.

[notin]

LOL a good reminder of why not to pay attention to any of them.

 

Even mine?

[Bellhorn04]

Even mine?

 

I don't know. Give us your top 4 right now and let's see how you do. This is your big chance.

[notin]

I don't know. Give us your top 4 right now and let's see how you do. This is your big chance.

 

 

I’ve posted my top 4 numerous times in the past 6 weeks. And no matter what happens, I am NOT changing them, despite how questionable they have always looked. I had

 

1. Leiter

2. Lawler

3. Davis

4. Rocker

 

Of course, now Marcelo Mayer, in an obvious attempt to discredit me, has come out with some underslot demands to increase his already lofty appeal. Too bad, Marcelo!! I’m NOT moving you up!! You can’t intimidate me!!

[Hugh2]

LOL a good reminder of why not to pay attention to any of them.

 

True, but I do think this year is unique in that there are not any clear-cut top tier guys at the top. I think this is more of a testament that the top 6-8 guys in the draft are all viewed very similarly in terms of the ceiling.

[Fan_since_Boggs]

Callis was right about Rocker, he isn't going in the top 5, and Callis said this before Rocker's last start which didn't go well: 4.1 innings, 5 runs.

 

My new and final top 4.

 

Pirates: Davis, the Pirates are desperate for a young catcher and they want someone who will sign for under slot, allowing the Pirates to draft hard-to-sign talent later on. Davis will give the Pirates a bigger discount than Mayer and Leiter and so Davis is the pick.

 

Rangers: Leiter, an easy selection for the Rangers who will happily pay full slot for Leiter.

 

Tigers: Mayer, the two best college prospects are off the board and the Tigers really like Mayer.

 

Red Sox: Lawlar, as much as I would like to see the Red Sox take Jobe here, Lawlar is the safer pick and has comparable upside. In a few years when Lawlar is ready, I could see the Red Sox moving Bogaerts to 3b and Devers to 1b. I want Leiter most of all, but I just don't believe he will slip to 4.

 

BTW, since Lawlar is now the Red Sox pick (since I said so, LOL), I found this corny story on Lawlar, but it is a cool read that give us some insight into his work ethic and background. You gotta love the intangibles:

https://www.wfaa.com/article/sports/jesuits-jordan-lawlar-prepares-for-mlb-draft-with-mom-helping-all-the-way/287-65a91661-513f-466c-8b9a-e024e3f72d75

Edited July 2, 2021 by Fan_since_Boggs

[moonslav59]

]Red Sox: Lawlar, as much as I would like to see the Red Sox take Jobe here, Lawlar is the safer pick and has comparable upside. In a few years when Lawlar is ready, I could see the Red Sox moving Bogaerts to 3b and Devers to 1b. I want Leiter most of all, but I just don't believe he will slip to 4.

 

If we draft Mayer or Lawlar, Bogey's team control will be expired by the time they are ML ready. (Devers, too.)

[notin]

Callis was right about Rocker, he isn't going in the top 5, and Callis said this before Rocker's last start which didn't go well

 

I’m sticking with Rocker at 4. Two reasons

 

1) I made my pick and I am (stubbornly?) standing by it.

 

2) In this top-heavy draft that’s 8-10 picks deep, surprises are inevitable. Especially from Bloom. Where did Callis have Nick Yorke going last year?

 

Also, Davis at #1? I love it. Not buying it, but I do love the idea…

[notin]

If we draft Mayer or Lawlar, Bogey's team control will be expired by the time they are ML ready. (Devers, too.)

 

Mayer and/or Lawler are 5 years away from MLB. By then, both Bogie and Devers are likely in the rear view mirror and the competition is more likely someone like Matt Lugo or Nick Yorke…

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

If we draft Mayer or Lawlar, Bogey's team control will be expired by the time they are ML ready. (Devers, too.)

 

Does that mean you think Bloom won't extend Devers?

 

I mean, all who draw the line about longterm contracts also have to draw the line about losing homegrown stars eventually... right?