A Realistic View at 2021: Part II

[mvp 78]

Out of 31 not really

 

Only 31 guys could get to that inning threshold. You cut out most of the chaff already.

[moonslav59]

Only 31 guys could get to that inning threshold. You cut out most of the chaff already.

 

I gave the numbers for top 150 and top 300 by innings. This sample size was to compare Rick to other big inning pitchers of his time.

[Bellhorn04]

I'm a big Porcello fan and think he's closer to very good than mediocre. I'd say he was just plain "good."

 

The innings pitched factor is hard to quantify, especially if you view his ERA+ or ERA-, WHIP and other stats as looking mediocre and think more innings of mediocre is valuable, but not "very good."

 

Here's another way to look ay Porcello's numbers from 2009-2020. Let's look at just the 31 pitchers with 1500+ IP. Here's how Rick places in this group:

 

14th fWAR

23rd SIERA

24th xFIP

27th ERA-

27th WHIP

 

Looks like you better drop the threshold to 1000 innings or something.

[mvp 78]

Looks like you better drop the threshold to 1000 innings or something.

 

He could, but it wouldn't be a very good post.

[Nick]

Rays have two players making over $5M. Unbelievable.

 

We're worried about sweetening the pot for Xander making $20M and JD making $22M. And extending Devers for $25-$30M. Different lifestyles.

[moonslav59]

Looks like you better drop the threshold to 1000 innings or something.

 

I was actually thinking of going smaller sample, where Porcello would rank last or next to last in every category.

 

In a sense, nobody pitched more innings than Porcello and was worse.

[Bellhorn04]

Rays have two players making over $5M. Unbelievable.

 

We're worried about sweetening the pot for Xander making $20M and JD making $22M. And extending Devers for $25-$30M. Different lifestyles.

 

I just hope trading Hill hurts them somehow.

[Nick]

Tanner Houck was outstanding last night. Not getting much air time on his fine outing, overshadowed by Kike's heroics.

 

I sure do love his attitude. Take the ball and fire! No fear in him nor Whitlock. Stretch them both out for next year. We don't need to pay Richards $10M when we have these kids.

 

Sale, Eovaldi, E Rod (?), Pivetta, Houck and Whitlock.

 

We'll still have Barnes, Sawamura, Darwinzon and Taylor in the pen. Perez can be a spot starter and a long reliever. The pen can reconstructed over the winter. There will some young arms ready for 2022.

[Bellhorn04]

I was actually thinking of going smaller sample, where Porcello would rank last or next to last in every category.

 

In a sense, nobody pitched more innings than Porcello and was worse.

 

Actually a few guys managed to.

[iortiz]

You can eat a lot of inning but if you allow a good chunk of runs in a regular basis as Porcello did, it doesn't make you good by any means.

[moonslav59]

So, we have another example of a contending team trading a key player in July.

 

The Rays are buyers and sellers, at the same time.

[Bellhorn04]

You can eat a lot of inning but if you allow a good chunk of runs in a regular basis as Porcello did, it doesn't make you good by any means.

 

On the other hand, if you really suck, you're not going to make it to 2,096 major league innings.

[Bellhorn04]

So, we have another example of a contending team trading a key player in July.

 

The Rays are buyers and sellers, at the same time.

 

They really are different.

[a700hitter]

On the other hand, if you really suck, you're not going to make it to 2,096 major league innings.

Mediocre isn’t suck.

[moonslav59]

Actually a few guys managed to.

 

Actually, no.

 

8 other pitchers had as many or more IP as Porcello from 2009-2020.

 

All had fWARs over 40. Porcello was 22.6- way behind.

 

9th out of 9 in xFIP at 4.04 (next guy at 3.64)

 

9th in ERA- at 102 (next guy at 84)

 

9th in WHIP at 1.32 (next guy at 1.25)

[iortiz]

On the other hand, if you really suck, you're not going to make it to 2,096 major league innings.

 

Yeah, his durability is out of the question, but his quality is.

 

Thing is most of the times if you allow 4-5 runs you won't be pulled out. That's what happened with Porcello.

[moonslav59]

You can eat a lot of inning but if you allow a good chunk of runs in a regular basis as Porcello did, it doesn't make you good by any means.

 

No, it doesn't, but pitching way more innings than other pitchers and doing pretty good for most of them does add value. The debate seems to be more about how much value is to be added?

[moonslav59]

Yeah, his durability is out of the question, but his quality is.

 

Thing is most of the times if you allow 4-5 runs you won't be pulled out. That's what happened with Porcello.

 

That does add value as he saves the pen by being consistent and durable.

 

IMO, he was between a top mediocre pitcher to a low very good pitcher- depending on how much you value innings pitched.

[iortiz]

No, it doesn't, but pitching way more innings than other pitchers and doing pretty good for most of them does add value. The debate seems to be more about how much value is to be added?

The way I see it, Porcello allowed 4-5 runs per game but could go 6-7 innings through that frame. Is it good? no. Is it a disaster? no —specially if you have a good offense behind.

 

That is just mediocre. That is what Porcello was in most part of his career.

[moonslav59]

The way I see it, Porcello allowed 4-5 runs per game but could go 6-7 innings through that frame. Is it good? no. Is it a disaster? no —specially if you have a good offense behind.

 

That is just mediocre. That is what Porcello was in most part of his career.

 

Was he very good the other part of his career?

 

If so, doesn't a little very good mixed in with mostly mediocre, make you "good" overall?

[dgalehouse]

Something to think about as we approach the 2/3 mark of the season: Given last year's abbreviated season and this year's full schedule, will we see some guys start to run low on fuel? Especially the over thirty bunch. And would a couple of days off here and there help ?

[Nick]

I understand the luxury of using Houck in multiple scenarios but IF he's clearly an upgrade over Richards and Perez, then he needs to be in the starting rotation.

 

Why in the hell would we trade for another starter when we'll have Houck and Sale available?

 

Get help in the bullpen.

 

Get rid of mop up duty guy in Workman and maybe Rios (I think the Sox likes him).

[mvp 78]

The way I see it, Porcello allowed 4-5 runs per game but could go 6-7 innings through that frame. Is it good? no. Is it a disaster? no —specially if you have a good offense behind.

 

That is just mediocre. That is what Porcello was in most part of his career.

 

He gave up less than 3 earned runs per appearance.

[Nick]

Something to think about as we approach the 2/3 mark of the season: Given last year's abbreviated season and this year's full schedule, will we see some guys start to run low on fuel? Especially the over thirty bunch. And would a couple of days off here and there help ?

 

They've been getting rest periodically. I think Cora is very mindful of that. But I just don't get why we have to baby these guys above and beyond their off days.

 

It's one thing if they're hurt but another if they're not.

[iortiz]

He gave up less than 3 earned runs per appearance.

 

4.5 through 9 IP which is how you evaluate a pitcher.

[moonslav59]

I understand the luxury of using Houck in multiple scenarios but IF he's clearly an upgrade over Richards and Perez, then he needs to be in the starting rotation.

 

Why in the hell would we go for another starter when we'll have Houck and Sale available?

 

Get help in the bullpen.

 

Get rid of mop up duty guy in Workman and maybe Rios (I think the Sox likes him).

 

That is a big "IF," but if you compare Houck with the Perezof late, yes, it's clear, but I doubt GMs go by just recency valuations.

 

The Perez of his first 11 starts was a 3.09 Perez.

 

The Perez of an 8 game stretch early in the year was a .614 OPS Against Perez.

 

The sample size on Houck is very small, and it should include his 5.14 ERA in AAA, this year (18 innings- some in rehab).

 

I'd say Sale will take Richards' slot.

 

Perez gets a couple more starts to show improvement, at least, unless he totally bombs.

 

[moonslav59]

4.5 through 9 IP which is how you evaluate a pitcher.

 

Going 6 and allowing 3 ERs is a quality start. I guess that's mediocre on your scale.

 

Porcello averaged slightly better than that. (2.9 ERs per 6 IP)

[mvp 78]

4.5 through 9 IP which is how you evaluate a pitcher.

 

Maybe if it's 1988.

[Nick]

Rick Porcello needs his own thread....Mediocre or Above Average?

[iortiz]

Going 6 and allowing 3 ERs is a quality start. I guess that's mediocre on your scale.

 

Porcello averaged slightly better than that. (2.9 ERs per 6 IP)

 

How many QS did he post in 355 games?