A Realistic View at 2021: Part II

[Hugh2]

No doubt there have been exceptions , but generally players named later don't ever amount to much.

 

Most players traded don’t turn into stars. Fortunately we don’t need all 5 to make this a good trade, just one.

 

Interesting factoid. David Ortiz was a PTBNL

[moonslav59]

Time will tell whether or not it was a good deal. Too soon right now. But there are those who will defend Bloom no matter how it turns out. We seem to be getting to where we root for or against the G.M.s more than we root for the players.

 

I'm one of Bloom's biggest supporters, but there have certainly been several moves that are questionable, at best and just plain bad, at worst.

 

No GM gets every move right.

 

I do think some context is needed when looking at Bloom's record. His farm was near empty, when he arrived, his budget was restricted much more than DD's and other GMs, and his 40 man roster depth was eye-poppingly bad. His plan had to be more about building up for 2022 and beyond- maybe with the hope that we could compete for a WC slot in 2021. Almost all of is moves have been to build up the farm or to acquire place-setters for incoming prospect talent or future higher-cost free agent signings.

 

Only Kike and Sawamura were signed for more than 1 year, and they both got only got two. It seems clear to me, they decided not to fill any holes, long-term until they found out more about what they had in the system. In some ways, I think that was what 2021 was supposed to be and maybe 2020, too, had COVID not shortened the season.

 

Bloom swung and missed badly on a lot of players, but most were long shot, low-cost additions with low expectations anyway. Here are some of his better moves that involve 2022 and some beyond:

 

Richards and Perez both have 2022 team options at reasonable prices.

 

Pivetta was acquired for Workman & Hembree. We got Workman back for nothing and also have Seabold as a promising, near ML ready, prospect.

 

Kike is signed through 2022 and is struggling, now, but the jury is still out. Some of the other 2B options are doing even worse, and most of them could not play OF. As of now, it looks like an overpay, at best.

 

We have Renfroe for one arb year. That one looks good.

 

We have Verdugo for 3 more arb years, plus Downs & Wong as promising prospects.

 

Valdez was a nice score and has 4 more years of control. Arroyo was also a waiver addition and shows some promise.

 

The Ronaldo Hernandez deal looks very promising, too.

 

Arauz, Whitlcok, Reed and Ort were recent Rule 5 additions. How many times have you see that many seemingly good Rule 5 picks in just 2 years?

 

I'm liking Winckowski, too and maybe we get something from one of the other 4 Beni players of German, the guy we got with Ottavino.

 

Can we also give Bloom and his team credit for getting the most out of Pivetta, Perez, Whitlock and some other pitchers looking real good on the farm? For years, we kept hearing how the Sox were terrible at developing good pitchers. Maybe that has already changed for the good, but we are too close to the action to realize it.

 

 

[moonslav59]

”Cherry picked in hindsight”? No, not at all. I haven’t liked the Kike deal from day 1.

 

I meant that that is the player you choose to count as the budget offset for the money saved in the Beni deal.

 

I'd have traded Beni for Renfroe and the 5 players we got again, in a heartbeat, but that's me "cherry-picking" Renfroe.

 

Get it?

 

Neither Renfroe of Kike have anything to do with the Beni trade, but the money saved by the Beni trade is separate from the money lost on Kike vs Holt, too.

[a700hitter]

I meant that that is the player you choose to count as the budget offset for the money saved in the Beni deal.

 

I'd have traded Beni for Renfroe and the 5 players we got again, in a heartbeat, but that's me "cherry-picking" Renfroe.

 

Get it?

 

Neither Renfroe of Kike have anything to do with the Beni trade, but the money saved by the Beni trade is separate from the money lost on Kike vs Holt, too.

But no hindsight was involved.

[oldtimer]

I'm one of Bloom's biggest supporters, but there have certainly been several moves that are questionable, at best and just plain bad, at worst.

 

No GM gets every move right.

 

I do think some context is needed when looking at Bloom's record. His farm was near empty, when he arrived, his budget was restricted much more than DD's and other GMs, and his 40 man roster depth was eye-poppingly bad. His plan had to be more about building up for 2022 and beyond- maybe with the hope that we could compete for a WC slot in 2021. Almost all of is moves have been to build up the farm or to acquire place-setters for incoming prospect talent or future higher-cost free agent signings.

 

Only Kike and Sawamura were signed for more than 1 year, and they both got only got two. It seems clear to me, they decided not to fill any holes, long-term until they found out more about what they had in the system. In some ways, I think that was what 2021 was supposed to be and maybe 2020, too, had COVID not shortened the season.

 

Bloom swung and missed badly on a lot of players, but most were long shot, low-cost additions with low expectations anyway. Here are some of his better moves that involve 2022 and some beyond:

 

Richards and Perez both have 2022 team options at reasonable prices.

 

Pivetta was acquired for Workman & Hembree. We got Workman back for nothing and also have Seabold as a promising, near ML ready, prospect.

 

Kike is signed through 2022 and is struggling, now, but the jury is still out. Some of the other 2B options are doing even worse, and most of them could not play OF. As of now, it looks like an overpay, at best.

 

We have Renfroe for one arb year. That one looks good.

 

We have Verdugo for 3 more arb years, plus Downs & Wong as promising prospects.

 

Valdez was a nice score and has 4 more years of control. Arroyo was also a waiver addition and shows some promise.

 

The Ronaldo Hernandez deal looks very promising, too.

 

Arauz, Whitlcok, Reed and Ort were recent Rule 5 additions. How many times have you see that many seemingly good Rule 5 picks in just 2 years?

 

I'm liking Winckowski, too and maybe we get something from one of the other 4 Beni players of German, the guy we got with Ottavino.

 

Can we also give Bloom and his team credit for getting the most out of Pivetta, Perez, Whitlock and some other pitchers looking real good on the farm? For years, we kept hearing how the Sox were terrible at developing good pitchers. Maybe that has already changed for the good, but we are too close to the action to realize it.

 

 

 

Another area for optimism is the upcoming draft where we may well get a starting pitcher prospect to develop for 2023 and other solid draft opportunities. It will be interesting to see what Bloom does with these opportunities.

[Hugh2]

Another area for optimism is the upcoming draft where we may well get a starting pitcher prospect to develop for 2023 and other solid draft opportunities. It will be interesting to see what Bloom does with these opportunities.

 

All I know is they better not draft Trey Ball or people will be pissed.

[Nick]

I'm one of Bloom's biggest supporters, but there have certainly been several moves that are questionable, at best and just plain bad, at worst.

 

No GM gets every move right.

 

I do think some context is needed when looking at Bloom's record. His farm was near empty, when he arrived, his budget was restricted much more than DD's and other GMs, and his 40 man roster depth was eye-poppingly bad. His plan had to be more about building up for 2022 and beyond- maybe with the hope that we could compete for a WC slot in 2021. Almost all of is moves have been to build up the farm or to acquire place-setters for incoming prospect talent or future higher-cost free agent signings.

 

Only Kike and Sawamura were signed for more than 1 year, and they both got only got two. It seems clear to me, they decided not to fill any holes, long-term until they found out more about what they had in the system. In some ways, I think that was what 2021 was supposed to be and maybe 2020, too, had COVID not shortened the season.

 

Bloom swung and missed badly on a lot of players, but most were long shot, low-cost additions with low expectations anyway. Here are some of his better moves that involve 2022 and some beyond:

 

Richards and Perez both have 2022 team options at reasonable prices.

 

Pivetta was acquired for Workman & Hembree. We got Workman back for nothing and also have Seabold as a promising, near ML ready, prospect.

 

Kike is signed through 2022 and is struggling, now, but the jury is still out. Some of the other 2B options are doing even worse, and most of them could not play OF. As of now, it looks like an overpay, at best.

 

We have Renfroe for one arb year. That one looks good.

 

We have Verdugo for 3 more arb years, plus Downs & Wong as promising prospects.

 

Valdez was a nice score and has 4 more years of control. Arroyo was also a waiver addition and shows some promise.

 

The Ronaldo Hernandez deal looks very promising, too.

 

Arauz, Whitlcok, Reed and Ort were recent Rule 5 additions. How many times have you see that many seemingly good Rule 5 picks in just 2 years?

 

I'm liking Winckowski, too and maybe we get something from one of the other 4 Beni players of German, the guy we got with Ottavino.

 

Can we also give Bloom and his team credit for getting the most out of Pivetta, Perez, Whitlock and some other pitchers looking real good on the farm? For years, we kept hearing how the Sox were terrible at developing good pitchers. Maybe that has already changed for the good, but we are too close to the action to realize it.

 

 

 

This is the best summary to date. Good job Moon.

[Hugh2]

The average 2B is a .704 ops hitter. It’s a small jump for Kike to beat that as his career line is worth more.

 

Plus D, positional versatility. Only thing you can really complain about is him in the lead off spot.

[Bellhorn04]

Bloom swung and missed badly on a lot of players, but most were long shot, low-cost additions with low expectations anyway.

 

You mean in 2020 or this year?

[a700hitter]

The average 2B is a .704 ops hitter. It’s a small jump for Kike to beat that as his career line is worth more.

 

Plus D, positional versatility. Only thing you can really complain about is him in the lead off spot.

what is the average salary at 2B?

[Hugh2]

what is the average salary at 2B?

 

The average Salary in free agency is between 8-9 million per war, meaning if Kike meets his career averages he will be underpaid at 7 million a year.

[Bellhorn04]

In his final year of arbitration with the Dodgers, Kike made $5.9 million.

[a700hitter]

The average Salary in free agency is between 8-9 million per war, meaning if Kike meets his career averages he will be underpaid at 7 million a year.

Apples to apples would be average salary of all 2B if you are using average OPS of all 2B, or maybe average salary of all 2B in FA.

[Hugh2]

Apples to apples would be average salary of all 2B if you are using average OPS of all 2B, or maybe average salary of all 2B in FA.

 

 

2B is considered a premium defensive position that would likely increase Kikes value. He’s been outstanding on defense.

[a700hitter]

2B is considered a premium defensive position that would likely increase Kikes value. He’s been outstanding on defense.

Likely isn’t a measure.

[Hugh2]

Likely isn’t a measure.

 

Kike isn’t any more overpaid than anyone else in FA. But what measures we can gather we have discovered he’s making free market value. If there’s information out there that says otherwise I’d be happy to change my mind.

 

Regardless, he’s making 3% of a luxury tax limit. He’s not exactly preventing the Sox from signing anyone. He will be a good place holder for Downs.

[Nick]

Kike isn’t any more overpaid than anyone else in FA. But what measures we can gather we have discovered he’s making free market value.

 

What the buyer (Sox) and seller (Kike) agreed upon is the definition of Free Market Value (2 years, $14M).

 

But that value can appreciate or depreciate as time passes.

 

Moon and I are making a point that his market value is not quite $14M TODAY based on his performance. Do you think there are 29 general managers that will give us much in return today and assume the balance of his contract? Highly doubtful. He was a bench player for the Dodgers. I'm not sure if he's given us much more than Brock Holt would have, as another poster pointed out.

Edited June 6, 2021 by Nick

[Hugh2]

Kike isn’t any more overpaid than anyone else in FA. But what measures we can gather we have discovered he’s making free market value.

 

What the buyer (Sox) and seller (Kike) agreed upon is the definition of Free Market Value (2 years, $14M).

 

But that value can appreciate or depreciate as time passes.

 

Moon and I are making a point that his market value is not quite $14M TODAY based on his performance. Do you think there are 29 general managers that will give us much in return today and assume the balance of his contract? Highly doubtful. He was a bench player for the Dodgers.

 

What evidence do we have that he’s not making market value?

[Hugh2]

Best comp I can find is Kolton Wong. Kike has the stat line advantage and is a year younger.

 

Wong got 18/2

[a700hitter]

Kike isn’t any more overpaid than anyone else in FA. But what measures we can gather we have discovered he’s making free market value. If there’s information out there that says otherwise I’d be happy to change my mind.

 

Regardless, he’s making 3% of a luxury tax limit. He’s not exactly preventing the Sox from signing anyone. He will be a good place holder for Downs.

What do you expect from Downs? What do you think his ceiling is and why?

[moonslav59]

But no hindsight was involved.

 

So, if Kike was batting .850, you'd have still used him as an example?

[Hugh2]

What do you expect from Downs? What do you think his ceiling is and why?

 

https://soxprospects.com/players/downs-jeter.htm

[Hugh2]

I expect Downs to be an everyday player, I hope he reaches his ceiling and is an all star talent.

 

I expect the Sox to replace him if he can’t reach that potential.

 

Easier said than done, but always easier when you have system depth.

Edited June 6, 2021 by A Red Sox fan named Hugh

[a700hitter]

So, if Kike was batting .850, you'd have still used him as an example?

I have been consistently critical of his acquisition, since it was announced so there is no hindsight. His performance has confirmed my opinion. If he was OPSing .850, I would have been wrong about him. Do you know what hindsight means? LOL!

[moonslav59]

You mean in 2020 or this year?

 

Many 2020 marginal players bombed, but this year, one could argue these players were bad or not very good (so far and for some, really small sample sizes):

 

Cordero

Andriese

Marwin

Santana

Brice (from last year)

 

We haven't had to dip into our SP'er depth, like last year, so we have not had a chance to cringe at the Mazzas and God knows all the others.

 

Certainly, this off season was better than the last one, but he hardly spent anything, last year and some of that money went to Peraza and a much less effective Martin Perez.

[moonslav59]

I have been consistently critical of his acquisition, since it was announced so there is no hindsight. His performance has confirmed my opinion. If he was OPSing .850, I would have been wrong about him. Do you know what hindsight means? LOL!

 

Yes, I know what hindsight means, and I know you hated the Kike signing and Bloom hiring from day one.

 

It's not hindsight in the general sense it is used, but you know damn well, you would not be mentioning the money saved by trading Beni to offset Kike and Kike vs Holt had Kike been hitting .850. Just because you knew he wouldn't hit .850 beforehand does not mean you didn't cherry pick the comp in hindsight.

 

Plus, the money Kike cost does not match up with the money saved on the Beni deal, even if you subtract Holt's contract from his.

 

A closer comp is Renfroe, since he has 2 years of control and cost about what the difference was on the Beni deal. Another similar money comp would be Sawamura, but the positions are way different.

 

Perhaps using Marwin would make your case stronger.

 

Beni for Marwin and the 5 players.

[a700hitter]

https://soxprospects.com/players/downs-jeter.htm

From the report: average speed, average arm, minimal projection remaining in his frame, lack a standout carrying tool, but will show average to better in all 5 tools. Speed is his weakest tool.

 

When I saw him in Fort Myers in 2020, he struck me as very average in all aspects. Duran on the other hand has noticeably plus power and speed. I have been wrong before, but I am not going to invest in his rookie card.

[a700hitter]

Yes, I know what hindsight means, and I know you hated the Kike signing and Bloom hiring from day one.

 

It's not hindsight in the general sense it is used, but you know damn well, you would not be mentioning the money saved by trading Beni to offset Kike and Kike vs Holt had Kike been hitting .850. Just because you knew he wouldn't hit .850 beforehand does not mean you didn't cherry pick the comp in hindsight.

 

Plus, the money Kike cost does not match up with the money saved on the Beni deal, even if you subtract Holt's contract from his.

 

A closer comp is Renfroe, since he has 2 years of control and cost about what the difference was on the Beni deal. Another similar money comp would be Sawamura, but the positions are way different.

 

Perhaps using Marwin would make your case stronger.

 

Beni for Marwin and the 5 players.

All stats are hindsight. LOL! Otherwise, they would be projections.

[moonslav59]

Best comp I can find is Kolton Wong. Kike has the stat line advantage and is a year younger.

 

Wong got 18/2

 

We could have signed Cesar Hernandez at $5M/1 and gotten about the same production without the OF option.

[a700hitter]

Best comp I can find is Kolton Wong. Kike has the stat line advantage and is a year younger.

 

Wong got 18/2

who is the better fielder?