A Realistic View at 2021: Part II

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

I would have had Verdugo leading off, Bogaerts 2nd, JD 4th, and Devers 5th. To me, those are the 4 most important spots in the batting order. Put Kike 3rd.

 

That said, Cora has things under control. Despite my previous criticism of Cora for putting Kike in the leadoff spot, I trust that he knows what he's doing. His line up is working. Leave it alone.

 

Verdugo's all-field approach makes him the most consistent contact hitter (Bogie could be, but Cora wants more longball out of him). But we all know Devers has the best hand-eye coordination -- it's part of the reason he hacks at everything, because he can barrel anything he can reach. If he ever decides to show discipline, Devers might someday win a batting crown; maybe start with taking the first pitch, because every team knows he's swinging and makes sure not to throw it in the zone.

 

Devers could do damage to burglars trying to rob his bedroom in the dark (he must keep a 31 oz. maple next to his nightstand)... sleep-batting.

[moonslav59]

Apparently Cora read my post from this morning.

 

Whitlock pitches 2.2 innings, 2 K', 0 BB, 0 Hits

 

I guess we'll see him on April 29th.

 

They said they wanted to "stretch him out," so they must be picking and choosing when he will most likely be successful to bring him in for 3 innings or so (or more).

 

The guy hasn't let up a run or much of anything. It's hard for me to complain.

[moonslav59]

I would have had Verdugo leading off, Bogaerts 2nd, JD 4th, and Devers 5th. To me, those are the 4 most important spots in the batting order. Put Kike 3rd.

 

That said, Cora has things under control. Despite my previous criticism of Cora for putting Kike in the leadoff spot, I trust that he knows what he's doing. His line up is working. Leave it alone.

 

Probably the most ideal.

 

Maybe put Vaz 3rd.

[moonslav59]

Verdugo's all-field approach makes him the most consistent contact hitter (Bogie could be, but Cora wants more longball out of him). But we all know Devers has the best hand-eye coordination -- it's part of the reason he hacks at everything, because he can barrel anything he can reach. If he ever decides to show discipline, Devers might someday win a batting crown; maybe start with taking the first pitch, because every team knows he's swinging and makes sure not to throw it in the zone.

 

Devers could do damage to burglars trying to rob his bedroom in the dark (he must keep a 31 oz. maple next to his nightstand)... sleep-batting.

 

I've said it before, and I'm saying it again: one season (or more) Devers is going MONSTER!

 

He's as pure a hitter as ever can be.

 

Kinda reminds me of Vlad.

[Bellhorn04]

Verdugo's all-field approach makes him the most consistent contact hitter (Bogie could be, but Cora wants more longball out of him).

 

Alex Vertigo - he makes pitchers dizzy.

[Nick]

As long as he's been in the league, he's still a very young player. I tend to think that he will improve defensively as well. Regardless, he's a special player. Leave him alone and just let him do his thing.

 

My concern would be switch in position may cause some anguish that may leak into his hitting.....I agree. Just stay with it.

[moonslav59]

My concern would be switch in position may cause some anguish that may leak into his hitting.....I agree. Just stay with it.

 

If he sucks on D at 3B, this year, I doubt he has any issues with moving to 3B, this winter.

 

Plus, it seems like nothing phases this kid.

 

He doesn't even know what "anguish" means.

[moonslav59]

Alex Vertigo - he makes pitchers dizzy.

 

...and OF'ers.

[oldtimer]

Hopefully, we have enough information on Dalbec & Chavis by season's end.

 

We should know if Devers will stay at 3B or be moved to 1B. IMO, there is no way he is moved to LF or DH at his age.

 

If Dalbec shows he can hit, he may be moved to 3B.

 

If Casas shows a need to be promoted, we'll deal with that when it happens.

 

You are right, nothing happens until next winter.

 

 

When you look at the practical aspects of setting a batting order, you have to look at a balance between right and left hand hitters. We currently have the following mix, which is right hand heavy. Bringing a lefty substitute for a righty makes some sense. I took a guess at who will be with the club in 2022 and who is questionable at this juncture. That might also be a consideration as to whether a prospect is brought up.

Right Handed

 

Arroyo

Bogaerts

Dalbec

Hernandez

Martinez

Plawecki

Renfroe

Vazquez

 

Left Handed

 

Codero

Devers

Verdugo

 

Switch

 

Gonzalez

 

Likely prospect pool 2021

 

Duran L

Chavis R

Downs R

[moonslav59]

When you look at the practical aspects of setting a batting order, you have to look at a balance between right and left hand hitters. We currently have the following mix, which is right hand heavy. Bringing a lefty substitute for a righty makes some sense. I took a guess at who will be with the club in 2022 and who is questionable at this juncture. That might also be a consideration as to whether a prospect is brought up.

Right Handed

 

Arroyo

Bogaerts

Dalbec

Hernandez

Martinez

Plawecki

Renfroe

Vazquez

 

Left Handed

 

Codero

Devers

Verdugo

 

Switch

 

Gonzalez

 

Likely prospect pool 2021

 

Duran L

Chavis R

Downs R

 

Duran will be called up when the following events occur (or at least 2 out of 3):

 

1. He is deemed ML ready (especially on D)

2. He will play most days.(He needs to be playing nearly everyday to grow.)

3. There is a clear need on the big roster, such as an injury or continued slumping by someone like Renfroe.

 

One interesting note: the only everyday player who is a FA after this year is the switch-hitting Gonzalez, so if Duran replaces him, we don't really gain on split "balance."

 

Renfroe has a few more arb years.

[notin]

I would have had Verdugo leading off, Bogaerts 2nd, JD 4th, and Devers 5th. To me, those are the 4 most important spots in the batting order. Put Kike 3rd.

 

That said, Cora has things under control. Despite my previous criticism of Cora for putting Kike in the leadoff spot, I trust that he knows what he's doing. His line up is working. Leave it alone.

 

Right now, it isn't broken. I'm ok with Kike leading off until the team stops hitting...

[moonslav59]

Right now, it isn't broken. I'm ok with Kike leading off until the team stops hitting...

 

He has a .333 OBP the last 7 & 14 days.

 

While that is not ideal, it's not horrific either.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Alex Vertigo - he makes pitchers dizzy.

 

I just read this. There was a front coming in last night and everything got blurry.

[illinoisredsox]

They said they wanted to "stretch him out," so they must be picking and choosing when he will most likely be successful to bring him in for 3 innings or so (or more).

 

The guy hasn't let up a run or much of anything. It's hard for me to complain.

 

Ideally, he'd be a SP in AAA this year, but as a Rule V guy, he has to stay up or be offered back to the Yanks (which isn't going to happen). So he may just be stuck with the long reliever role this season and then sent to one of the fall leagues to start stretching out for next year. A lot will depend on how the team goes; if the Sox stay in contention, they aren't going to do it during the season this year, If they fall down towards last year's levels, they very well might.

[notin]

Ideally, he'd be a SP in AAA this year, but as a Rule V guy, he has to stay up or be offered back to the Yanks (which isn't going to happen). So he may just be stuck with the long reliever role this season and then sent to one of the fall leagues to start stretching out for next year. A lot will depend on how the team goes; if the Sox stay in contention, they aren't going to do it during the season this year, If they fall down towards last year's levels, they very well might.

 

Well, they can make a deal with the Yankees to keep him. Either a trade for another player or just a cash settlement. But for all we know, they tried this and Cashman was not amenable...

[moonslav59]

Ideally, he'd be a SP in AAA this year, but as a Rule V guy, he has to stay up or be offered back to the Yanks (which isn't going to happen). So he may just be stuck with the long reliever role this season and then sent to one of the fall leagues to start stretching out for next year. A lot will depend on how the team goes; if the Sox stay in contention, they aren't going to do it during the season this year, If they fall down towards last year's levels, they very well might.

 

My guess is, he will have several chances to eventually pitch 4+ innings in relief, if Cora wants him to.

 

Also, we all know Houck is the 6th starter, who may win the 5 slot, but chances are, we'll need a 7th starter often enough to give Whitlock a chance to start, again, if Cora and Bloom want him to do so.

[moonslav59]

Well, they can make a deal with the Yankees to keep him. Either a trade for another player or just a cash settlement. But for all we know, they tried this and Cashman was not amenable...

 

With a 26 man roster, and our great need for good young pitching arms, he isn't going anywhere.

 

We can find him all the innings he needs at the big level. The only problem that may occur, is if he starts sucking, and we want to keep him pitching, but not at the expense of the big club. (That's a real possibility, but I'm trying to stay positive, this year.)

[Nick]

With a 26 man roster, and our great need for good young pitching arms, he isn't going anywhere.

 

We can find him all the innings he needs at the big level. The only problem that may occur, is if he starts sucking, and we want to keep him pitching, but not at the expense of the big club. (That's a real possibility, but I'm trying to stay positive, this year.)

 

I really don't know what else he needs to work on. Starter pitches, command of strike zone. I can see him getting hurt.

 

Nine innings pitched and 0 walks. That tells me more than anything else.

[moonslav59]

I really don't know what else he needs to work on. Starter pitches, command of strike zone. I can see him getting hurt.

 

Nine innings pitched and 0 walks. That tells me more than anything else.

 

Most young pitchers are "working on something" they want to improve or add.

 

Maybe all he needs to work on is being stretched out for longer and longer outings.

 

[moonslav59]

Sox OPS Last 14 Days:

 

1.088 Devers

1.077 JD

1.056 Verdugo

1.039 Bogey

 

.872 Hernandez

.837 Arroyo

 

.766 Vazquez

.749 Dalbec

.696 Cordero

 

.631 Marwin

.607 Plawecki

.571 Renfroe

 

Pitcher by IP and ERA/OPS Against- last 14 days

 

18 Eovaldi 3.44/.646

14 Perez 5.93/7.85

10 Richards 1.80/.606

10 ERod 3.60/.671

10 Pivetta 5.59/.896

 

7.0 Barnez 1.29/.255

5.2 Andriese 0.00/.634

5.2 Whitlock 0.00/.000

5.1 Sawamura 3.38/.730

5.1 Houck 5.06/.864

5.0 Valdez 3.60/.387

4.2 DHern 0.00/.600

4.2 Taylor 1.93/.578

3.1 Ottavino 8.10/.764

3.0 Brice 9.00/1.227

1.0 Bazardo 0.00/.400

 

[moonslav59]

When you look at the practical aspects of setting a batting order, you have to look at a balance between right and left hand hitters. We currently have the following mix, which is right hand heavy. Bringing a lefty substitute for a righty makes some sense. I took a guess at who will be with the club in 2022 and who is questionable at this juncture. That might also be a consideration as to whether a prospect is brought up.

Right Handed

 

Arroyo

Bogaerts

Dalbec

Hernandez

Martinez

Plawecki

Renfroe

Vazquez

 

Left Handed

 

Codero

Devers

Verdugo

 

Switch

 

Gonzalez

 

Likely prospect pool 2021

 

Duran L

Chavis R

Downs R

 

So far, this year, the Sox are...

 

.858 vs RHPs

 

.728 vs LHPs

 

(.889 when a RH'er starts/ .674 when a lefty starts.)

[moonslav59]

We all have seen how JD has been Mr. Clutch, but check out these 2021 "Late & Close" numbers:

 

1.727 Verdugo (1.950 High Leverage)

1.250 Arroyo (.800)

1.194 JD (1.007)

1.159 Marwin (.814)

.958 Vazquez (1.067)

.829 Dalbec (.633)

.818 Devers (.528)

 

.819 Team (.781)

 

.619 Renfroe (.393)

.495 Bogey (.533)

.400 Cordero (.833)

.182 Kike (.747)

.000 Plawecki (.000)

Edited April 20, 2021 by moonslav59

[Maxbialystock]

We all have seen how JD has been Mr. Clutch, but check out these 2021 "Late & Close" numbers:

 

1.727 Verdugo (1.950 High Leverage)

1.250 Arroyo (.800)

1.194 JD (1.007)

1.159 Marwin (.814)

.958 Vazquez (1.067)

.829 Dalbec (.633)

.818 Devers (.528)

 

.819 Team (.781)

 

.619 Renfroe (.393)

.495 Bogey (.533)

.400 Cordero (.833)

.182 Kike (.747)

.000 Plawecki (.000)

 

Neat. Thanks. Early days, of course, but I always say that a small sample is a whole lot better than no sample.

 

This year I think we have seen--overall, not necessarily in late and close games--that the predicted mainstays (JDM, Devers, Bogie, Vazquez) have all been pretty good.

 

The surprise to me is all the other guys who have made a difference. As I keep saying ad nauseum, to date (18 games, 1/9th of the season) the Sox lead MLB in runs scored and OPS. There are exactly zero experts who predicted that as a possibility, even for 1/9th of the season.

 

I look forward to your insights for the bullpen, which to me is also a big surprise. In 18 games to date the rotation has achieved just two quality starts (defined, I think, as 6 innings and giving up no more than 2 or 3 runs). The Dodgers, on the other hand, already have 12 quality starts. There is nothing sacred about "quality starts," but they can be a useful tool for comparing rotations.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

There is nothing sacred about "quality starts," but they can be a useful tool for comparing rotations.

 

... and for preserving the physical and mental health -- and effectiveness -- of bullpens.

[moonslav59]

Neat. Thanks. Early days, of course, but I always say that a small sample is a whole lot better than no sample.

 

This year I think we have seen--overall, not necessarily in late and close games--that the predicted mainstays (JDM, Devers, Bogie, Vazquez) have all been pretty good.

 

The surprise to me is all the other guys who have made a difference. As I keep saying ad nauseum, to date (18 games, 1/9th of the season) the Sox lead MLB in runs scored and OPS. There are exactly zero experts who predicted that as a possibility, even for 1/9th of the season.

 

I look forward to your insights for the bullpen, which to me is also a big surprise. In 18 games to date the rotation has achieved just two quality starts (defined, I think, as 6 innings and giving up no more than 2 or 3 runs). The Dodgers, on the other hand, already have 12 quality starts. There is nothing sacred about "quality starts," but they can be a useful tool for comparing rotations.

 

I think something like this would be more useful than Quality Starts. If 6 IP and 3 ER is quality, why aren't these as well?

 

4+ IP 0-1 ERs

5+ IP 0-2 ERs

6+ IP 0-3 ERs

8+ IP 0-4 ERs

 

I'd also rather have a starter give me 3.2 IP with 0 ERs than one giving me 6 IP with 3 ERs.

[Nick]

I think something like this would be more useful than Quality Starts. If 6 IP and 3 ER is quality, why aren't these as well?

 

4+ IP 0-1 ERs

5+ IP 0-2 ERs

6+ IP 0-3 ERs

8+ IP 0-4 ERs

 

I'd also rather have a starter give me 3.2 IP with 0 ERs than one giving me 6 IP with 3 ERs.

 

I'm going to be a jerk here.

 

Aren't you and Kimmi and others on this board praised breathlessly how Rick Porcello was God's gift to starting pitching because of INNINGS HE PITCHED?

 

You loved the idea of 6 IP and 3 ERs.

 

Can you survive a season with starters giving the team less than 4 innings?

 

I don't consider 3.2 innings a quality start under any circumstances, unless I'm a Rays fan.

[notin]

I think something like this would be more useful than Quality Starts. If 6 IP and 3 ER is quality, why aren't these as well?

 

4+ IP 0-1 ERs

5+ IP 0-2 ERs

6+ IP 0-3 ERs

8+ IP 0-4 ERs

 

I'd also rather have a starter give me 3.2 IP with 0 ERs than one giving me 6 IP with 3 ERs.

 

Yeah! Opener logic.

 

To me, that is very dependent on how effective the bullpen is and how often they are used. The occasional short shutout start is nice, but when you need to rely on the bullpen for over 5 innings every game (or even nearly every game), that can lead to a lot of long term issues.

 

Although it probably is worth noting that in a double header, a 3.2 IP 0 ER start does look significantly better than a 6 IP 3 ER start....

[dgalehouse]

I think folks are going to have to start taking this ballclub seriously as a real contender. They are playing with a lot of confidence and seem to be one of those teams that is greater than the sum of it's parts. Also , the rest of the A.L. does not look especially daunting. Could be a very interesting season.

[Maxbialystock]

I think folks are going to have to start taking this ballclub seriously as a real contender. They are playing with a lot of confidence and seem to be one of those teams that is greater than the sum of it's parts. Also , the rest of the A.L. does not look especially daunting. Could be a very interesting season.

 

Hey, knock it off. The title of this thread is a realistic view of 2021, which is what you're trying to provide. Wrong! The real purpose of this thread is to discuss stats, acquisitions, etc. [note to moonslav: I hope you can take a joke]

 

But I do like that line "greater than the sum of its parts" because it fits these Sox. Actually, the Sox "parts" are pretty good, but none of them have names that espn or whoever wants to tout. The Yankees and Dodgers are currently cornering that market.

 

The Boston Red Sox are currently in the same niche as the Tampa Bay Rays and the Oakland Athletics. Playing good ball, but bereft of names and/or huge salaries. Borrriiinnnggg!

[moonslav59]

I'm going to be a jerk here.

 

Aren't you and Kimmi and others on this board praised breathlessly how Rick Porcello was God's gift to starting pitching because of INNINGS HE PITCHED?

 

You loved the idea of 6 IP and 3 ERs.

 

Can you survive a season with starters giving the team less than 4 innings?

 

I don't consider 3.2 innings a quality start under any circumstances, unless I'm a Rays fan.

 

I loved the Porcello extension, but I was not for bringing him back.

 

Had we signed him instead of Perez, I wouldn't have complained.

 

I get the value of IP and how it "saves the pen," but I still think 3.2 IP and 0 ERs is as good or better than 6 IP with 3 ERs.

 

I'm not saying call it a "quality start," but I wouldn't mind some new modified version of QS being added to baseball vernacular.

 

Do you consider 6 IP and 3 ER "quality?" That's a 4.50 ERA. Sure, it's decent, but not "quality, in my book.